Greg Cosell on the Bills Offense

[Buffalo Junction]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

I may not understand what you guys have in mind by "fooling" or "disguise" , but on the surface for what I mean, I think these are bad takes.  To me, "disguise" or "fool" here doesn't mean run some trickery dickery, it just means that the defense is left in doubt as to whether they're about to face a run or a pass play, so they need to remain in a reasonable position to defend both.

 

Obviously the defense's job is easier if they can diagnose run vs pass ahead of the snap, so part of the Art of a top OC is to create doubt.

 

When we run empty sets or split the back out wide, the defense has no doubt it's a pass and can pin their ears back.

Even with an RB in the backfield, if the Bills are in Shotgun, the overwhelming odds are Bills are passing, they can pin their ears back.

Allen under center, the overwhelming odds are Bills are running, so they can key on that.

 

My guess is if I had the statistical tools to break down run/pass tendencies by down and distance, I could do even better, and if I had film breakdown on "tells" from the OL and from Allen, I'd nail it.

 

The very best teams can execute when everyone knows what they're gonna do initially, but after a while defenses start to catch up and figure out how to defend it, and then they struggle.  This happened to the K-Gun, this is happening to KC and to Baltimore, and it's happening to us.  Then there needs to be a compensating adjustment or there's trouble.

 

One can’t help but wonder how much effort the offense actually puts into making pass and run plays look identical pre-snap. Same goes for mixing up snap counts. I’d love to see them just start a game in 12 or 21 personell and quick snap the ball to throw a curveball at a defense from the first snap. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Governor said:

Well, we need a spark to carry us the rest of the way and that’s gotta be at the RB position or Knox becoming unstoppable, or both.

 

The players on the field over the last 2 weeks won’t/can’t get us where we need to be to make a serious deep run.

 

 

We won't have the same players. We had Boettger and Ford replacing injured guys, and Williams playing at RT. As our first teamers get healthy, things should get better. Getting Knox back should also help significantly.

8 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Or actually fix it so we can run even when they know we are going to run. Like block people and play design and pick a RB and stop rotating guys in every other drive.

 

 

Rotating RBs isn't a problem.

 

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

 

A run game that works by disguise isn't a run game at all. 

 

 

That is incorrect on the face of it. Any run game is a run game, and plenty of very successful run games work from misdirection.

 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Chandler#81]

8 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This seems to be consensus from just about everyone.  Hopefully they can implement these changes.  
 

Cosell’s comments on Josh are interesting.  He was not a fan of Josh as a QB prospect and during his first few seasons 

Yep, I read nothing there I didn’t already know. What I don’t know, is what we can do about it the remainder of the season.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We won't have the same players. We had Boettger and Ford replacing injured guys, and Williams playing at RT. As our first teamers get healthy, things should get better. Getting Knox back should also help significantly.

 

 

Rotating RBs isn't a problem.

 

 

That is incorrect on the face of it. Any run game is a run game, and plenty of very successful run games work from misdirection.

 

Misdirection and disguise are not remotely the same concept, in the context of the post I replied too. Your comment is incorrect. 

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

I may not understand what you guys have in mind by "fooling" or "disguise" , but on the surface for what I mean, I think these are bad takes.  To me, "disguise" or "fool" here doesn't mean run some trickery dickery, it just means that the defense is left in doubt as to whether they're about to face a run or a pass play, so they need to remain in a reasonable position to defend both.

 

Obviously the defense's job is easier if they can diagnose run vs pass ahead of the snap, so part of the Art of a top OC is to create doubt.

 

When we run empty sets or split the back out wide, the defense has no doubt it's a pass and can pin their ears back.

Even with an RB in the backfield, if the Bills are in Shotgun, the overwhelming odds are Bills are passing, they can pin their ears back.

Allen under center, the overwhelming odds are Bills are running, so they can key on that.

 

My guess is if I had the statistical tools to break down run/pass tendencies by down and distance, I could do even better, and if I had film breakdown on "tells" from the OL and from Allen, I'd nail it.

 

The very best teams can execute when everyone knows what they're gonna do initially, but after a while defenses start to catch up and figure out how to defend it, and then they struggle.  This happened to the K-Gun, this is happening to KC and to Baltimore, and it's happening to us.  Then there needs to be a compensating adjustment or there's trouble.

 

The part in bold defines the very best teams.  How many games did the Bills lose to the Patriots in the last 20 years because we didn't know it was going to be a passing play? 

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Seems like everybody’s jumping on the pile. Here’s to Daboll shoving it up all the armchair expert’s asses tomorrow.  4 wideouts and Knox the whole game.  

Hope not. That's a long term recipe to lose. 

[kkim0904]

I really liked his analysis on RPO.  We pass over 75% on RPO formation.  Their D is easily beating our Oline scheme for running block on RPO formation.  Also we need to put Josh on the center so we neutralize their DE so keep them  in more lateral movement instead of attacking Oline and QB on every play.

[hemma]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is at least 1 lineman with a 'run play tell' that's the equivalent of a flashing neon light.

Ass height, lean, hand position .... something.  Could be the backs, too.

[LyndonvilleBill]

10 minutes ago, hemma said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is at least 1 lineman with a 'run play tell' that's the equivalent of a flashing neon light.

Ass height, lean, hand position .... something.  Could be the backs, too.

I don't think it matters. Unless were in the redzone, I don't think anyone cares if we run. Looks to me like everyone just plays the pass and the way our oline is, gets to the RB anyways.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Cosell:

"Every time I watch the Bills offense, it seems that my final notes involve two things.  Number one, I say, they don't really have a viable run game, either in terms of volume or production.  And number two, I always type that I think their offensive line is not one of the better OLs in the league in terms of pass protection"

"I've always believed that any time you have a weakness, a flaw, an inconsistancy, whatever you want to call it...it can come up and bite you in any given game."

"Then I'll add one more point.  I love Josh Allen as a player.  I think he's on his way to being one of the best QBs in the league.  But it is very very difficult, every week, no matter how good your QB is, to pretty much say, even if you don't say it in so many words 'you have to be great every week or we don't have a chance to win'.  That's a tough way to play." 

"They asked him to drop back more than 50 times in a game that was close.

Yes, this is exactly what was stated in the other thread, we have become Allen reliant, almost Allen dependent.

 

WGR has pushed this narrative that you don’t need to run the ball at all, that Allen can be our leading rusher, as well as audible to more passes, that the Steelers were the only Defense that could crash our offensive line.

 

They’ve waived their hand after every game stating that any loss is simply an anomaly. 

Allen can always do more, he needs to take the check downs but also stay aggressive.

 

The Bills need to:

 

1. Get Moss off the field. This notion that he has earned #1 status hurts the team, he’s slow.

 

2. Sacred cows that Sanders and Beasley need to be on the field at all times, mix in Davis and McKenzie in their places, because those two have stopped their development this year.

 

3. When the Bills run, line up under Center in Pro Set and just run straight ahead for 4-yards. 
 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

One can’t help but wonder how much effort the offense actually puts into making pass and run plays look identical pre-snap. Same goes for mixing up snap counts. I’d love to see them just start a game in 12 or 21 personell and quick snap the ball to throw a curveball at a defense from the first snap. 

 

I think this has been a very low priority.

 

1 hour ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I don't think it matters. Unless were in the redzone, I don't think anyone cares if we run. Looks to me like everyone just plays the pass and the way our oline is, gets to the RB anyways.

 

I don't think this is true.  I think when we call a run play, the defense knows it's coming, keys on it, and stuffs it.

[Buffalo Junction]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think this has been a very low priority.

It’s an under appreciated aspect of most top offenses. Forcing the second level to diagnose for an extra second, or even make an incorrect read is immensely valuable. Unfortunately that’s not a strong suit of this bills offense. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Misdirection and disguise are not remotely the same concept, in the context of the post I replied too. Your comment is incorrect. 

The part in bold defines the very best teams.  How many games did the Bills lose to the Patriots in the last 20 years because we didn't know it was going to be a passing play? 

 

IMO the Patriots ran often and effectively enough that teams who faced them, including the Bills, could never abandon covering the run.

[dave mcbride]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I think this video speaks directly to what a number of people are saying in several different threads

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/greg-cosell-josh-allen-will-play-better

 

Cosell:

"Every time I watch the Bills offense, it seems that my final notes involve two things.  Number one, I say, they don't really have a viable run game, either in terms of volume or production.  And number two, I always type that I think their offensive line is not one of the better OLs in the league in terms of pass protection"

"I've always believed that any time you have a weakness, a flaw, an inconsistancy, whatever you want to call it...it can come up and bite you in any given game."

"Then I'll add one more point.  I love Josh Allen as a player.  I think he's on his way to being one of the best QBs in the league.  But it is very very difficult, every week, no matter how good your QB is, to pretty much say, even if you don't say it in so many words 'you have to be great every week or we don't have a chance to win'.  That's a tough way to play." 

"They asked him to drop back more than 50 times in a game that was close. .....it's one thing if you're down 20 to nothing early in the 2nd quarter, but this was a normal game in terms of closeness......

.....I know people who know coaches very well, so I know for a fact that he's a very accountable young man, and he took full credit for the fact that he played poorly and he's got to play better, and he will play better"

"I think the run game is a patience issue.  If you're going to run the ball, you're going to have plays that gain 1, that gain 2, that lose 2.  I think teams that really believe in the run game, don't give up on it if that happens.  And we know the Bills are not one of those teams."

Re Breida: "Outside zone is his baby, we saw that in San Francisco.  And the Bills run outside zone, so they don't have to change anything if they play Matt Breida". 

 

Key Points:

-The Bills have to commit to trying to run the football.  Can't just run a couple times, lose yards, and say "oh that didn't work"

-Put Josh under center for outside zone runs and to get the DL moving laterally, that helps the OL. 

-You also get the play action boot pass game, which you don't get with the same efficiency from the shotgun

 

(my counterpoint is that I think sometimes our OL is so poor that putting Josh under center would just put the DL in his lap; keeping him in shotgun is designed to let him see and avoid)

 

 

This is a phenomenal interview. He has some great takes on the Jets too. Recommended.

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Yep, I read nothing there I didn’t already know. What I don’t know, is what we can do about it the remainder of the season.

I recommend watching it. There’s a lot of other good stuff in it. In particular, he has a long and convincing explanation about why lining up under center a lot more would probably do the Bills offense some good.

[Chaos]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

IMO the Patriots ran often and effectively enough that teams who faced them, including the Bills, could never abandon covering the run.

The quintessential Patriots pure execution play was the QB sneak on 4th and short. Everyone in the stadium knew it was coming and every defense was powerless to stop it.  The non-stop slants to Welker, then Edelman were 99% predictable and due to near perfect execution impossible to stop.  Coaching up the perfect execution was the key, not disguising the plays. It takes coaching + talent to get perfect execution. It is a rare combination. When it comes together you have a champion. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think this has been a very low priority.

 

 

I don't think this is true.  I think when we call a run play, the defense knows it's coming, keys on it, and stuffs it.

True, and maybe a poor choice of words on my part. Maybe more like no fear of the running game so just focus on the pass. But if you're playing the Bill's, I think the thought is, don't get into a shootout and try to outscore them. Make the Bill's drive the field and hold them in the redzone. Just like we used to think when we played KC. Our backs have what, 4.5-4.6 speed? No fear of really breaking loose for 50+ yards. I don't recall the last time someone mentioned we were playing against a 7-8 man box... Maybe since Shady was here? Nothing really drawing the LB'S up, so even the middle doesn't seem to be open anymore. So, yeah, maybe there is a tell or something and we need to mix things up more. More pitches,  jet sweeps or misdirection plays to open the middle up a little for the shallow crossing routes or quick in routes. I am ALL FOR getting Lil Dirty more involved in the offense. Heck, I guess if I knew the answers I wouldn't be watching the games on TV. 😉

[Beerball]

11 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

RUN Forest RUN

Block Ford block.

[starrymessenger]

I like GC a lot and find his takes always informative. Something I would add to his comments about Brieda though  is that imo his SF tape from a couple of years back shows that he is not necessarily limited to zone stretch playcalls and that he can run inside. When there is a hole he can hit it quickly wherever it happens to be. I don’t disagree with the fans calling for more sweeps, misdirection etc…in the run game but just as running the ball can set up the pass, being able to run inside is complementary to attacking the edge. The Jags did an excellent job of sealing the edge last week.

[Thrivefourfive]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that's not representing Cosell's take accurately.  He's not a fan; he's a film guru specializing in QB analysis, and he admits a bias towards technically sound mechanics and how a QB operates from structure (within the pocket).  He openly admits he doesn't get into character or personality, he's just looking at the film.  His choice was Rosen followed by Mayfield, and he points out that there's a difference in philosophies held by reasonable smart people.

He evaluated Allen pretty accurately at the time (start at 13:30).

 He said Allen has phenomenal arm strength and is big and can move.  He can make "wow" plays and his top 25 plays would be the best 25 plays of any of these guys. There's a difference between arm strength and arm talent (which means accurate placement).  He said he's not a pace and touch thrower, and on a lot of the shorter and intermediate throws his ball placement is not very good (this was true, could be seen even at the Combine).  The Browns guy offered up Deshone Kizer as a comparison and Cosell said Allen is more spectacular and (his word) "freakish" (in his athletic talent).  Anyway I put this here because I thought it was interesting.

I love this! That draft was so exciting. Word got out from a Browns insider that the pick was Mayfield (Dan Patrick reported it), but there was always doubt. 
 

My pick.. Rosen(!) was the worst of the class! Hahah. I listened to too many of the “experts”. He threw such a pretty ball in college, but for whatever reason, it translated to absolutely nothing. But that’s a topic for another time.

 

The two teams that stole in this draft, took huge chances really. The Bills more so than Baltimore. But the bottom line is that these two teams picked the players that had the “wow” factor, and that paid off. If the Browns would’ve picked either Allen or Jackson, then Wow for reals. They’d be sooo good. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

True, and maybe a poor choice of words on my part. Maybe more like no fear of the running game so just focus on the pass. But if you're playing the Bill's, I think the thought is, don't get into a shootout and try to outscore them. Make the Bill's drive the field and hold them in the redzone.

 

I think that last is it.  When teams believe we're going to pass, they have no fear of needing to defend the run instead, so they are happy to hang back and take away the middle of the field.  If we do (by some weird chance) call a run when teams expect a pass, they correctly believe that it will be self-limiting to a 5-6 yd play or if it breaks long, there's a good chance it will be called back by a holding penalty (as has happened on a couple of Motor's good long runs)