Are the Bills now a "Spread Offense" and is the "Book" out on how to hinder us?

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

Young QBs have never seen the cover 2 shell that's suddenly back en vogue.  We'll see who can figure it out.

 

you know there is some truth in that. Not that they have never seen it at all, but that it has not been the core down in and down out defense that has been in fashion for the last decade and a bit in the NFL. It was the cover 1 / cover 3 "Seattle" defense that McDermott also runs here with a few blitz heavy 3-4 cover 0 style schemes thrown in. The Tampa 2 definitely fell out of fashion as more and more teams went to a defense that got guys up near the line to counter all the west coast style short, quick, timing offenses. Then comes an influx of these big armed young Quarterbacks who can expose that and suddenly everyone wants to back off into more Tampa 2 style looks. Interesting times, but the last 2 or 3 weeks I definitely feel like defenses have won the battle more often than not. Whether they win the war remains to be seen. 

[Mc1320]

This is not new.  If you listen to Peyton Manning interviews about the Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne era, he has said teams tried to play deep safeties to limit deep shots to Harrison/Wayne. The way to beat it was to run them out of it - he gives an example about running Edgerrin James 8-9 times in a row forcing the defense to bring a safety down to stop the run which magically opened up the passing game.

 

This game is not that complicated - it is a game of physical domination won in trenches.  Unfortunately we don’t have Jeff Saturday at center or Edgerrin James in the backfield.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

A couple of those picks were tipped balls/ trying to throw it away while being sacked if I’m not mistaken then he had that one against Houston that sailed on him and the one last week that was just a bad read. Seems like there’s only one accuracy related interception that I can remember and one reading the defense related one…which is encouraging. You’d think the trying to do too much interceptions/fumbles are correctable and I think he’s done a better job for the most part…that jax defense was just in his head though 

 

Just to be clear, I wasn't intending to comment on Allen's picks being a result of inaccurate short throws

My point was to note that the calculation being used is "passer rating", which is influenced by both passing yards AND INTs thrown.  So a single INT in an area of the field where the throws are already short, has a disproportionate influence on the number.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

you know there is some truth in that. Not that they have never seen it at all, but that it has not been the core down in and down out defense that has been in fashion for the last decade and a bit in the NFL. It was the cover 1 / cover 3 "Seattle" defense that McDermott also runs here with a few blitz heavy 3-4 cover 0 style schemes thrown in. The Tampa 2 definitely fell out of fashion as more and more teams went to a defense that got guys up near the line to counter all the west coast style short, quick, timing offenses. Then comes an influx of these big armed young Quarterbacks who can expose that and suddenly everyone wants to back off into more Tampa 2 style looks. Interesting times, but the last 2 or 3 weeks I definitely feel like defenses have won the battle more often than not. Whether they win the war remains to be seen. 

 

Have Allen do west coast, short, quick, timing, quick hitting style, then hit teams the Bill's like to do. Force them to adjust. If teams go for quick early adjust to what they like. Or other way around. Put that pressure in a unique style on the defense.

14 minutes ago, Mc1320 said:

This is not new.  If you listen to Peyton Manning interviews about the Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne era, he has said teams tried to play deep safeties to limit deep shots to Harrison/Wayne. The way to beat it was to run them out of it - he gives an example about running Edgerrin James 8-9 times in a row forcing the defense to bring a safety down to stop the run which magically opened up the passing game.

 

This game is not that complicated - it is a game of physical domination won in trenches.  Unfortunately we don’t have Jeff Saturday at center or Edgerrin James in the backfield.

 

This would help as well.

[Scott7975]

44 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’ve been saying that in every thread I can haha Dawson Knox was blowing up this whole defensive game plan when healthy…it’s no surprise our production dropped off when he got hurt. Sweeney is a tremendous drop off. I suspect we’ll be back to doing lots of scoring with Knox back and most people will see the jags game as an aberration 

 

This is at least partially true.  Knox is the cover 2 beater and he was doing it well.  

[hondo in seattle]

I wondered what Urban Meyer meant when he said we were a spread offense.  Some football historians will argue that every offensive scheme in the NFL today is a variation of the spread offense.   

 

In it's simplest definition, a spread offense is one that spreads offensive players across the breadth of the field, with the intent of spreading the defense thin.   It forces the defense to try defend all 53 yards of width and the entire length of the gridiron.  That's it.  A spread offense creates space and makes use of seams and/or advantageous match-ups.   Every modern NFL team does this.

 

But Meyer ran his own version of the Spread in college.  Josh McDaniels spent a lot of time learning the Spread form Meyer and uses it with the Pats.  Daboll learned it from McDaniels.   So the Spread we run is a close relative of Meyer's spread.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I wondered what Urban Meyer meant when he said we were a spread offense.  Some football historians will argue that every offensive scheme in the NFL today is a variation of the spread offense.   

 

In it's simplest definition, a spread offense is one that spreads offensive players across the breadth of the field, with the intent of spreading the defense thin.   It forces the defense to try defend all 53 yards of width and the entire length of the gridiron.  That's it.  A spread offense creates space and makes use of seams and/or advantageous match-ups.   Every modern NFL team does this.

 

But Meyer ran his own version of the Spread in college.  Josh McDaniels spent a lot of time learning the Spread form Meyer and uses it with the Pats.  Daboll learned it from McDaniels.   So the Spread we run is a close relative of Meyer's spread.  

 

That's a fair point.

 

 I think what Urban might mean is that the Bills are a team that operates almost exclusively from the shotgun, with a huge reliance on the passing game or read option/RPO plays. 

 

I'm not sure that was true last season, but I think it's true now.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2021_splits.htm

 

Shotgun: 340 of 474 plays (72%): 71% pass, 29% run

Under center: 134 of 474 plays (28%): 25% pass, 75% run

 

I couldn't find stats on how often Allen was the back on run plays from shotgun, but I'd guess his 57 rush attempts are a large fraction of the 91 run plays from shotgun.

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I wondered what Urban Meyer meant when he said we were a spread offense.  Some football historians will argue that every offensive scheme in the NFL today is a variation of the spread offense.   

 

In it's simplest definition, a spread offense is one that spreads offensive players across the breadth of the field, with the intent of spreading the defense thin.   It forces the defense to try defend all 53 yards of width and the entire length of the gridiron.  That's it.  A spread offense creates space and makes use of seams and/or advantageous match-ups.   Every modern NFL team does this.

 

But Meyer ran his own version of the Spread in college.  Josh McDaniels spent a lot of time learning the Spread form Meyer and uses it with the Pats.  Daboll learned it from McDaniels.   So the Spread we run is a close relative of Meyer's spread.  

 

Yep - traditionally that means you run out of shotgun, and you run toward the boundaries and cut up field.  The big problem in buffalo is the backside blocking is brutal, so the cutback lanes that are created get swallowed up by backside players.  I think you could try some jet action to create an additional conflict (or pin block).  You could also run speed option instead of read option - get to the boundary faster and pitch to the back or create RPOs with sprint out plays.  

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's a fair point.

 

 I think what Urban might mean is that the Bills are a team that operates almost exclusively from the shotgun, with a huge reliance on the passing game or read option/RPO plays. 

 

I'm not sure that was true last season, but I think it's true now.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2021_splits.htm

 

Shotgun: 340 of 474 plays (72%): 71% pass, 29% run

Under center: 134 of 474 plays (28%): 25% pass, 75% run

 

I couldn't find stats on how often Allen was the back on run plays from shotgun, but I'd guess his 57 rush attempts are a large fraction of the 91 run plays from shotgun.

 

 

 

The team doesn't run well under center.  And those splits are terrible.  If he takes the snap under center its almost always a run, and they don't run heavy play action much from it either.  A lot of the pass plays are RPO screens where the ball is almost immediately thrown.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

There's just a shocking lack of creativity in our offense this year.

 

Last year Daboll used pre-snap motion on a majority of plays.

He used McKenzie on jet sweeps and fake jet sweeps that opened up lanes for the running backs.

This year Josh is passing out of an empty backfield too often and the line can't hold up long enough for him to find a receiver deeper down the field.

We barely run any play-action and the defense always knows what's coming.

 

If Daboll can't right the ship soon, we need to be on the lookout for a new offensive coordinator.

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

There's just a shocking lack of creativity in our offense this year.

 

Last year Daboll used pre-snap motion on a majority of plays.

He used McKenzie on jet sweeps and fake jet sweeps that opened up lanes for the running backs.

This year Josh is passing out of an empty backfield too often and the line can't hold up long enough for him to find a receiver deeper down the field.

We barely run any play-action and the defense always knows what's coming.

 

If Daboll can't right the ship soon, we need to be on the lookout for a new offensive coordinator.

 

All true BUT play action doesn't work unless you have a running threat.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

All true BUT play action doesn't work unless you have a running threat.

 

Eh - it can.  Especially when you run 80% of the time under center.  They are almost expecting you to run when you PA.  

[TheFunPolice]

The only "book" on America's Team is the one they'll write after we win this Super Bowl!

 

The Rams: the LA team. Sparkle... Glitz.. fast cars, big money, Pro Bowl team of mercenaries, thirsty for the trophy

The Bills: blue collar underdogs who play with heart, spirit and poise, one of a kind fans, and ready to battle for the first SB title in Buffalo's history

 

See you in February! It'll be epic! 

 

 

 

Actually... see you in the gameday thread, where I will take part in overreactions to anything Bills or Tom Brady related

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

27 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

All true BUT play action doesn't work unless you have a running threat.

True, but last year we were pretty effective running play-action despite not having a great running game. I think the fact that we telegraph every play to the defense is allowing the opponents' defensive line to rush the passer without worrying about filling running lanes, making our mediocre offensive line look even worse than they are.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Allen2Diggs

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

There's just a shocking lack of creativity in our offense this year.

 

Last year Daboll used pre-snap motion on a majority of plays.

He used McKenzie on jet sweeps and fake jet sweeps that opened up lanes for the running backs.

This year Josh is passing out of an empty backfield too often and the line can't hold up long enough for him to find a receiver deeper down the field.

We barely run any play-action and the defense always knows what's coming.

 

If Daboll can't right the ship soon, we need to be on the lookout for a new offensive coordinator.

 

Just curious:

How many or what % of his plays did Daboll use pre-snap motion last season and how has that changed this season?

 

The Bills ran (1,1) sets 71% of the time last season and 66% of the time this season, meaning an RB and a TE.

How many of those sets feature an empty backfield? 

 

This year, we run other sets that feature at least 1 RB an additional 29% of the time this season, so 95% of our sets feature at least one RB.  How many of that 95% feature an empty backfield?

 

I don't know the source, but someone elsewhere posted that we run play-action 31% of the time.  Assuming that's correct, what does "barely" mean to you, and how much play action would be involved in exceeding that barely?

 

 

37 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

All true BUT play action doesn't work unless you have a running threat.

 

Football Outsiders claims they have studied this and it's not true

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

Quote

Coming into this, I did not know what to expect. Since play-by-play data on play-action passing is not readily available, it was something I had long wondered but never been able to look into. After measuring this every way I could think if, it appears that the conventional wisdom that running is necessary for play-action passes to be effective should be questioned. We have a lot of evidence that play-action passing is more effective than non-play-action passing, so the big question that remains is why teams run play-action so infrequently (the percentage of passes that are play-action has hovered around 20 percent since 2011).

 

Read it and buy it or don't 🤷‍♂️

[colin]

So, i've said it a bit more snarkily in the past, but my take is that dabol love scheming up crazy odd stuff, and spends a lot of time on that.  when it works it is lovely.

 

the problem is, we don't spend the time building bedrock stuff that we can revert to in a pinch.  we simply aren't good at the screen game at all, and we don't seem to get any quick hitters like slants and wheels going.

 

the result of this is that when things aren't running well, we get behind the sticks and we get predictable.  we really are the most streaky O in the NFL.  dabol is a great play from advantage guy, can dial up plays that work when the D is off balance, but can't slow it down (during the game and during the practice week) enough to go back to base and get it going.  i also think josh allen is looking for the bigger plays, our OL coaching is cheeks, and our OL is trash.  not to mention poor RB play.

 

after last week, and really has been a bit of a reoccurring problem this season, our O loses rhythm and just stinks out load for like, quarters and now games at a time.  at this point, it's on the head coach.  mcd has to do what he can to step on dabol and get the ship righted.

 

getting brown and knox back provides the perfect opportunity against a trash heap like the jets.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, colin said:

So, i've said it a bit more snarkily in the past, but my take is that dabol love scheming up crazy odd stuff, and spends a lot of time on that.  when it works it is lovely.

 

the problem is, we don't spend the time building bedrock stuff that we can revert to in a pinch.  we simply aren't good at the screen game at all, and we don't seem to get any quick hitters like slants and wheels going.

 

Some truth to this, I think.  Allen and Beasley and others have talked about how Daboll will take plays from anywhere - HS, college, guys dropping by his office.  He does love his gadgets and plays.

 

But he's cagey when asked about the team's offensive identity. 

 

There could be something to be said for the point that perhaps we need fewer gadget plays in our game plan, but a slightly wider variety of more routine plays like screens, then focus and execute them better.

 

There's also no question Josh is looking for the big play almost all the time.

 

[colin]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Some truth to this, I think.  Allen and Beasley and others have talked about how Daboll will take plays from anywhere - HS, college, guys dropping by his office.  He does love his gadgets and plays.

 

But he's cagey when asked about the team's offensive identity. 

 

There could be something to be said for the point that perhaps we need fewer gadget plays in our game plan, but a slightly wider variety of more routine plays like screens, then focus and execute them better.

 

 

 

they need to actually practice the plays they have, and he needs to not have complete obvious tells wrt down and distance (of our like 9 runs last week, i think 4 of them had the LB shoot the exact gap we were running into as the ball was snapped, we are too obvious).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So Joe B article in the Athletic thinks there are positive signs from the Jags game:

 

https://theathletic.com/2946365/2021/11/10/did-buffalos-final-drives-offer-reasons-for-offensive-optimism-bills-all-22-review/?article_source=search&search_query=joe buscaglia

 

Earlier, he looked at how the Jags were defending the Bills:

https://theathletic.com/2941580/2021/11/07/unpacking-the-bills-offensive-problems-in-sundays-disaster-7-observations-from-the-loss-to-the-jaguars/

Quote

the beginning of many of the Bills’ offensive problems starts with the Cover-2 shell defensive approach. The defense is designed to take away long-ball opportunities by keeping each safety deep and anchored to one side of the field, giving ample support to the zone coverage of cornerbacks and linebackers in front of them. The Jaguars’ safeties were always on guard for deep throws to the middle and sidelines. That meant if the Bills were trying a deep ball, odds are they’d need their receiver to win a two-on-one jump ball — which would be lousy quarterback decision-making.

 

It’s a defense designed to frustrate and keep pass-first offenses patient. Yelling for the Bills to take a deep shot just to take one is a bad process. It’s simple logic. The odds for a turnover significantly increase when you’re throwing at two defenders. That’s why you saw Allen and the Bills continue to look underneath and stack completions without ever taking a swing at a big play.

 

While the Jaguars didn’t use the Cover-2 shell on every play, they used it quite often — and the Bills had no answer other than to take what the Jaguars were ceding with underneath throws. This is the second straight week the Bills have seen the opponents take this approach. The only difference between the Jaguars’ game plan and the one the Dolphins ran was that the Jaguars were more committed to it.

 

In this article, he noted some things that worked when the Bills were moving the ball effectively (which they did at times):

Quote

Without a consistent running game, Allen took matters into his own hands and also, in this case, his legs. Besides getting the ball out quickly and hammering the underneath targets, Allen also attempted to get outside of the pocket. In doing so, it drew that first layer of zone defenders toward him and jackknifed the previously impenetrable zone, allowing his receivers to find a soft spot. By rolling to his right on one play, he opened up the Jaguars just enough to find wide receiver Stefon Diggs nestled in past the first layer of the zone, and the Bills hit their biggest passing play of the day for 28 yards. That drive resulted in Allen’s fumble, but the Bills were well into Jaguars territory.

On the next possession, Allen went back to work, rolling out of the pocket and changing his angle. Again, he forced those zone defenders to move with him, and this time wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders found the vacated space as the Bills popped the Jaguars for a 19-yard completion. After that play, Allen got the ball out quickly twice to Devin Singletary, the second of which gained 14 yards after a broken tackle, and the Jaguars switched things up after allowing 38 yards on three plays. Jacksonville played man-to-man coverage on the Bills’ next three offensive plays and sent additional pressure at Allen. The Jaguars had been in man-to-man on only six plays before that stretch, which meant the Bills clearly got to them with their late success.

On one of those man-coverage opportunities, Allen found Gabriel Davis heading to the sideline, and the duo barely missed a catch for a huge gain without a defender there to make a tackle for at least the next 10 to 15 yards. Upon the Jaguars’ return to zone on the final fourth down, Allen immediately escaped the pocket, likely to draw zone defenders out of position.

Although the Bills failed to score a touchdown Sunday, their late success against the Cover 2 shell is, at the very least, some reason for optimism.

 

The Pessimist says "Glass Half Empty"

The Optimist says "Glass Half Full"

The Engineer says "50% More Glass than Needed for Optimal Efficiency"

 

We'll see

 

I think what the BAL @ MIA game emphasized to me is how a handful of plays really can impact the outcome of a game. 

[Scott7975]

42 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just curious:

How many or what % of his plays did Daboll use pre-snap motion last season and how has that changed this season?

 

The Bills ran (1,1) sets 71% of the time last season and 66% of the time this season, meaning an RB and a TE.

How many of those sets feature an empty backfield? 

 

This year, we run other sets that feature at least 1 RB an additional 29% of the time this season, so 95% of our sets feature at least one RB.  How many of that 95% feature an empty backfield?

 

I don't know the source, but someone elsewhere posted that we run play-action 31% of the time.  Assuming that's correct, what does "barely" mean to you, and how much play action would be involved in exceeding that barely?

 

 

 

Football Outsiders claims they have studied this and it's not true

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

 

Read it and buy it or don't 🤷‍♂️

I think my source in playaction was here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

 

it’s under play type. 
 

I think the problem is not so much the packages but what they are doing in those packages. Eyeball test says they aren’t doing motions and misdirections as much. They certainly aren’t doing McKenzie jet sweeps or fake jet sweeps. Those were staples that help keep the defense guessing. It pretty much covered for the lack of run game in that sense. 
 

typically you don’t need to run effectively to run play action. That is not true of our team because they threat of run is not there at all. 
 

 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Scott7975

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So Joe B article in the Athletic thinks there are positive signs from the Jags game:

 

https://theathletic.com/2946365/2021/11/10/did-buffalos-final-drives-offer-reasons-for-offensive-optimism-bills-all-22-review/?article_source=search&search_query=joe buscaglia

 

Earlier, he looked at how the Jags were defending the Bills:

https://theathletic.com/2941580/2021/11/07/unpacking-the-bills-offensive-problems-in-sundays-disaster-7-observations-from-the-loss-to-the-jaguars/

 

In this article, he noted some things that worked when the Bills were moving the ball effectively (which they did at times):

 

The Pessimist says "Glass Half Empty"

The Optimist says "Glass Half Full"

The Engineer says "50% More Glass than Needed for Optimal Efficiency"

 

We'll see

 

I think what the BAL @ MIA game emphasized to me is how a handful of plays really can impact the outcome of a game. 

Right. Happy they found success late.  Just wished Allen got to some of the underneath faster and put some throws on the money vs cover 2 shell. He'll get better and this coverage.