Are the Bills now a "Spread Offense" and is the "Book" out on how to hinder us?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I'm going to try to break this into a separate thread because I think it's worth discussing.

 

I raised this issue in the Urban Meyer Interview thread last week.  His comments were that the Bills were a "spread offense", and that Miami essentially solved us by playing Cover 0, "when you do that, there's no more spread offense then it's just a matter of if you can hang in there"

Several knowledgeable posters agreed with Meyer that we are in fact a spread offense now.  @BringMetheHeadofLeonLett had this gem of a comment on the Bills, buried in the TNF thread:

 

If there's one offense Urban Meyer ought to know how to shut down, that would be a spread offense.

 

So I thought it was worth revisiting.  Daboll, when asked about our offensive identity, habitually deflects and says that we're going to do whatever it takes to be successful against our opponent each week, whether it's run 50 times or pass 50 times. 

 

At this point in this season, I feel it's pretty fair to say that's baloney from Daboll.

 

The Bills predominantly use a (1,1) set.  This is down from last season (66% vs 71%), as is our use of 4 WR sets (12% this season, down from 15%).  But while I don't have stats on this, to my eyes, even when we're in a (1,1) set this season (1 RB, 1 TE), we often split the back and the TE out wide.  We also aren't using (1,3) sets at all whereas last year they were a small but important part of our short-yardage and red-zone vocabulary.

 

I think it would be fair to say that we aren't getting those 10-15 yd pass plays that were our bread-and-butter last season, because teams are clamping down hard on that area of the field.  We also aren't gonna consistently get those deep balls, because they're not Allen's strength, Sanders often takes them, and he and Allen just don't seem on the same page most of the time.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

[Governor]

Hope so. That will force teams to build to run. I’m getting tired of the pass-happy flag football NFL model.

[Rubes]

I kind of said the same thing in the ESPN Rest of Season Predictions thread:

 

 

I don't know enough to say whether we are a spread offense now, but I haven't had that sense. I can tell you that I watched quite a few plays over again from the Jax game, and what I saw was that Jax played a lot of man-to-man, and in many cases our WRs were doing absolutely nothing to get open. How this group of receivers were getting no separation against those DBs is both puzzling and concerning. I mean, I remember hoping that teams would play man-to-man against us, knowing that we could shred that.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Rubes

[Dr. Who]

I was enjoying KC's struggles and the thought that we had provided a blueprint to discombobulate Kermit & Co. Not so fun when the proposal is that the black hats have figured out our offense. Still think the main issue is oline and lack of running game. Things have changed and I am pretty old, but in the Kgun days, teams knew what we were going to do and they generally could not stop us, regardless. Thurman Thomas and a superior oline made a world of difference.

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Thoughts?

 

I don't think Meyer is doing anything "special".  This D will work against the Bills especially when the OL keeps JA in duress.

You also can beat this by having a productive running game which draws in the LBs and SS.  Once again, the OL (and RBs) not producing

negates that answer.  A TE threat in the soft middle also created issues with this D.  Bills have one TE and he was out.

 

I'm very curious how the O attacks the Jets D this Sunday.  As for the last Miami game we all just seen last night they can field a

pretty good D.

 

It's a constant game of chess and it's Daboll and Josh Allen's move.

[Mat68]

No different than Rex vs NE.  Mix cover 4 with cover 0.  Everyone doesn't run cover 4.  Most teams cant play cover 0.  The offense and Allen has shown the ability to beat both. Imo just watching it live sometime Daboll stays with his game plan too much.  Looks for the big play instead of letting the offense gain consistency and confidence. 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Mat68

[78thealltimegreat]

We are one dimensional which means we can’t score if Josh isn’t Superman…that’s on roster construction…the quality of backs we have…no interior line push…your QB is your best running back…no TE push…throwing like 80 draft picks at the front 7 on defense 

[LABILLBACKER]

25 minutes ago, Governor said:

Hope so. That will force teams to build to run. I’m getting tired of the pass-happy flag football NFL model.

So am I. NBA...everyone just shoot 3's.....MLB...everyone just hit dingers.....NFL....throw the ball on every down 

So just like baseball players use a shift, so do NFL players if they know every single play is a pass. Daboll's biggest problem is not whether teams have figured out his spread offense. It's figuring out what Olineman will play where?

[Blainorama5]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

NBA...everyone just shoot 3's.....MLB...everyone just hit dingers.....NFL....throw the ball on every down

Chicks dig the long ball.

[ProcessTruster]

I would think if 6 guys are dropping most downs, BD/JA just need to be patient and take the WR pitchouts, Dump offs to RBs and running plays and just move it downfield.  QB draws work well also.   they'll get caught with man once in awhile and the above gets crushed, but Josh needs to be smart and throw it away.  No hero ball picks and no hero ball fumbles and they win against Jax .   

[Big Turk]

It's all about the protection. Miami tried playing Cover 0 against us last year and got shredded.

 

Bills were fantastic on blitz pickups last year and pass pro in general but have been substandard this year.

[Billl]

Young QBs have never seen the cover 2 shell that's suddenly back en vogue.  We'll see who can figure it out.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

40 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I don't think Meyer is doing anything "special".  This D will work against the Bills especially when the OL keeps JA in duress.

You also can beat this by having a productive running game which draws in the LBs and SS.  Once again, the OL (and RBs) not producing

negates that answer.  A TE threat in the soft middle also created issues with this D.  Bills have one TE and he was out.

 

I'm very curious how the O attacks the Jets D this Sunday.  As for the last Miami game we all just seen last night they can field a

pretty good D.

 

It's a constant game of chess and it's Daboll and Josh Allen's move.

I’ve been saying that in every thread I can haha Dawson Knox was blowing up this whole defensive game plan when healthy…it’s no surprise our production dropped off when he got hurt. Sweeney is a tremendous drop off. I suspect we’ll be back to doing lots of scoring with Knox back and most people will see the jags game as an aberration 

[RoyBatty is alive]

26 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So am I. NBA...everyone just shoot 3's.....MLB...everyone just hit dingers.....NFL....throw the ball on every down 

So just like baseball players use a shift, so do NFL players if they know every single play is a pass. Daboll's biggest problem is not whether teams have figured out his spread offense. It's figuring out what Olineman will play where?

Good analogy.

[Ya Digg?]

I think it's more of what the offensive line allows the team to do as opposed to what kind of offense the Bills run.  They have enough fire power that it doesn't matter if you know what's coming, if the line can hold up consistently you won't be able to stop them, just like teams really can't against Tampa, the Rams, etc.  If the line can't hold up (which it hasn't been able to lately) then it makes it really hard to do all of the things the team wants to do in order to be successful.

 

Last year by mid to late season teams knew what the Bills were going to do but they were powerless to stop it.  Teams don't have enough on the back end to keep up with everything the Bills can do, but if the team can get to the QB, against the Bills line there is trouble.  Certainly things need to be tweaked, but I think if they can figure out the offensive line a lot of the problems go away (and yes, I know that's easier said than done)

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’ve been saying that in every thread I can haha Dawson Knox was blowing up this whole defensive game plan when healthy…it’s no surprise our production dropped off when he got hurt. Sweeney is a tremendous drop off. I suspect we’ll be back to doing lots of scoring with Knox back and most people will see the jags game as an aberration 

Hope you are right on success with a Knox return.

 

As for Sweeney, what really hurts is his lame blocking.  I dont think he knows the playbook or cant interpret the defensive tells & make the correct adjustments of who he needs to block.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

I would think if 6 guys are dropping most downs, BD/JA just need to be patient and take the WR pitchouts, Dump offs to RBs and running plays and just move it downfield.  QB draws work well also.   they'll get caught with man once in awhile and the above gets crushed, but Josh needs to be smart and throw it away.  No hero ball picks and no hero ball fumbles and they win against Jax .   

 

So there's this, as of halfway through the season:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/josh-allen/ALL529264/2021/all/qb-grid

 

Couple of notes:

1) I wish they would put completions/attempts in each area of the grid.  

If you scroll through the charts week by week, you'll see that we actually have very few attempts beyond 20 yds and not many from 10 to 20 yds.

2) Why all the red? 

a) It IS passer rating, so INTs matter.  While Allen only has 5 picks, 4 of them are between the LOS and 10 yards (1 is just beyond). 

b) Short throws are still a "developing area" for Josh

c) As several have commented elsewhere, "throwing short" and "throwing quick" are not synonyms.  Even when Allen throws short, he doesn't necessarily throw quick. By play design/coaching or personal preference) he often reads the field long to short.  Even if he seems to look at an open short throw, he may move on looking for a deep shot.  By the time he comes back to it, an easy short throw has become a tight window throw.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Hope you are right on success with a Knox return.

 

As for Sweeney, what really hurts is his lame blocking.  I dont think he knows the playbook or cant interpret the defensive tells & make the correct adjustments of who he needs to block.

We essentially were missing 3 starting offensive linemen and Dawkins still seems like a different player since having Covid so you could even call it 4. It’s not really a huge mystery why we lost the way we did 

[papazoid]

the bills are their most dangerous when passing on first down

 

our run game sucks, its not getting fixed this season, stop wasting time forcing the run.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So there's this, as of halfway through the season:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/josh-allen/ALL529264/2021/all/qb-grid

 

Couple of notes:

1) I wish they would put completions/attempts in each area of the grid.  

If you scroll through the charts week by week, you'll see that we actually have very few attempts beyond 20 yds and not many from 10 to 20 yds.

2) Why all the red? 

a) It IS passer rating, so INTs matter.  While Allen only has 5 picks, 4 of them are between the LOS and 10 yards (1 is just beyond). 

b) Short throws are still a "developing area" for Josh

c) As several have commented elsewhere, "throwing short" and "throwing quick" are not synonyms.  Even when Allen throws short, he doesn't necessarily throw quick. By play design/coaching or personal preference) he often reads the field long to short.  Even if he seems to look at an open short throw, he may move on looking for a deep shot.  By the time he comes back to it, an easy short throw has become a tight window throw.

A couple of those picks were tipped balls/ trying to throw it away while being sacked if I’m not mistaken then he had that one against Houston that sailed on him and the one last week that was just a bad read. Seems like there’s only one accuracy related interception that I can remember and one reading the defense related one…which is encouraging. You’d think the trying to do too much interceptions/fumbles are correctable and I think he’s done a better job for the most part…that jax defense was just in his head though