What prompted the change to our offense, and other questions?

[Virgil]

Like many of you, I am both frustrated and perplexed by our offensive performance this season.  While I understand the need to evolve schemes before the league catches up to you, I can't quite figure out when that happened to us.  We were able to move the ball just fine at the end of last season, were good against the Colts, played a good defense in windy conditions against the Ravens, and then puttered against the Chiefs.  In the Chiefs game, I don't know that they "figured us out" so much as the matchup wasn't in our favor and we just had the wrong plan.  More so, I think about the Ravens offense.  They dominate the regular season and flop in the playoffs.  I get needing to make a change for the playoffs and practicing that in parts of the season, but the Ravens usually stick with what works during the regular season for the past few years. 

 

So with that, why did we effectively change our scheme that was apparently working?  Here are my questions?

 

1 - With Gabe Davis leading us in Red Zone TDs last season, why is he no longer in those packages as much?  While I understand Sanders new role in the offense, red zone packages are typically different

 

2 - Do we have a runningback problem or an offensive line problem?  Additionally, where is the extra eligible blocking receiver?  Teams are rarely stacking the box against us, which means it's 5 vs 4 on the line.  If we bring in an additional OL as an eligible receiver, then it's 6 vs 4.  That should be more than enough to get decent yards on each run play.  However, what percentage of our run plays come from the shotgun versus Josh under center.  Are we too obvious when we call a rushing play?  Is it possible that both Motor and Moss suck, or is the offensive line that bad?  I mean, these are NFL talented players who can't win a 5 vs 4 matchup?  I argue that alone seems illogical.  With that, for me, I believe it is our lack of creative scheme.  I think about our rushing attack before and after Greg Roman.  The man had a system out of the shotgun that couldn't be touched and we torched the league in rushing.  Why is that not something we can somewhat emulate?

 

3 - Even with other teams playing two safeties deep, the deep crossing routes shouldn't be effected by this as much.  If the safety does shade over, then the seam down the middle should be free.  Josh rolling out and hitting someone deep on the sideline was a majority of our highlights last season, but I can't think of more than a few times we've hit that play or even tried.

 

4 - Is it me, or did we move the pocket with Josh more last season? 

 

5 - I understand that teams are more consistently double covering Diggs, but that typically doesn't take affect until he's more than 10 yards down field?  What happened to the quick stutter-step routes that got him going early in games that brought the safeties up?  Our best games are when we fed Diggs and Beasley early, forcing the defense to react, and then killed them deep with throws to Davis and whoever else. 

 

6 - While Sanders has made some great plays for us, it feels to be at the expense of the other receivers.  Is this intentional or is really just the only person getting open?

 

7 - Where the hell is the McKenzie sweep plays?  We would at least keep the defense on their guard with those plays and creep towards the LOS, but nothing this year.

 

8 - When Josh went off on the sidelines against the Dolphins, who was he yelling at?  It looked like he was targeting his offensive line.  Has that relationship soured a bit?  I'm not saying they are tanking in response, but the tension is real.  Josh has not looked relaxed all season.

 

That's all I got.  I'm as frustrated as Josh is and I equally see the articles about him not taking the check-downs, but I also believe there is more to it.  I don' t have answers, just wanted to put the thoughts out there and see if anyone had similar thoughts or answers.

[BruceVilanch]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Josh has not looked relaxed all season.

I think this is the root of all the issues, he looks visibly uncomfortable on like 75% of his drop backs. I don't know how it gets fixed, he's shown the ability to make improvements in his game, let's hope he can adapt. BTW, I still think he's playing at a high level, I just think the offense overall is suffering, I am optimistic they will start clicking, jets are a good "get right game"

[HappyDays]

Defenses have caught up to what we did last year and we haven't adjusted. It's the same thing happening to the Chiefs. We are too one dimensional to counter. The scheme that defenses are playing against us can traditionally be beat by running the ball but our offensive line can't win a 5 on 4 matchup and our RBs aren't explosive enough to take advantage of the few opportunities that are there. The next best counter is TE seam routes and we have been without Knox the past 2 weeks. We need a complete change in our offensive philosophy. WR crossing routes aren't going to work anymore, defenses are selling out to stop them and we have no change up.

[Virgil]

Just now, BruceVilanch said:

I think this is the root of all the issues, he looks visibly uncomfortable on like 75% of his drop backs. I don't know how it gets fixed, he's shown the ability to make improvements in his game, let's hope he can adapt. BTW, I still think he's playing at a high level, I just think the offense overall is suffering, I am optimistic they will start clicking, jets are a good "get right game"

.

I wonder if the frustration is coming from the playcalling and adjusting to a different scheme.  He knows what they can do, and he's running plays that aren't working as well

[CSBill]

1 - Agree

2 - Agree

3 - Agree

4 - Agree

5 - Agree

6 - Agree

7 - Agree

8 - Agree

[Virgil]

Just now, HappyDays said:

Defenses have caught up to what we did last year and we haven't adjusted. It's the same thing happening to the Chiefs. We are too one dimensional to counter. The scheme that defenses are playing against us can traditionally be beat by running the ball but our offensive line can't win a 5 on 4 matchup and our RBs aren't explosive enough to take advantage of the few opportunities that are there. The next best counter is TE seam routes and we have been without Knox the past 2 weeks. We need a complete change in our offensive philosophy. WR crossing routes aren't going to work anymore, defenses are selling out to stop them and we have no change up.

 

That's what I'm saying though.  When did they catch up to us?  I feel like we stopped running our scheme in anticipation of people shutting us down.  The Chiefs game was the only one where our normal play wasn't working, and I would say that was more the offensive line not protecting Josh. 

[Rc2catch]

While I love sanders and what he brings, I’ve felt since game one he’s become the focal point of our offense somehow. He seems to be the only guy they target deep on the majority of attempts. A lot of plays seem designed to get coverage on Beasley and Diggs to open sanders up. I do believe our main keys are of course the offensive line and the coveted McKenzie sweep. We rarely handed it to him, even rarer it seemed we threw it his way on those plays, but that extra second or so the defense had to take to make sure he didn’t get the ball might be the difference in the pass rush affecting the play. If McKenzie is too important as a returner to risk injury on those then somebody else needs to take over that role. Rather it’s Breida or sanders or whoever. I do agree with all Virgil’s points as well. 

[realtruelove]

It appears that they are intentionally throttling the offense and using the regular season to test a multitude of plays, so teams in the playoffs will not be prepared for what will be unleashed on them.  

[Maine-iac]

If you are going to throw 80 percent of the time you better have an Oline that can block and is smart enough to find their man on stunts.  While I'd rather just run the ball more I'm not above admitting we could probably still throw all the time and move the ball and score points if our starters were healthy (both the OL and Knox).  I still wish we had a more adaptable offense that could put in two TE's and run it in some games and then go 3 or 4 wide in others and throw it.  In both cases Josh is going to have to understand who's out there with him and not throw picks, not fumble, and end drives with (as he'd tell you himself) kicks.  As much as I like him sitting in the pocket and making thows if they are going to do shell coverage and spead out their defenses I'm also all for Josh running more.  Be smart and don't take a ton of hits but if it gives us an extra blocker and he can run for 5 or 6 all day go ahead and take it till they start changing up coverages.

[CincyBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, Virgil said:

2 - Do we have a runningback problem or an offensive line problem?  Additionally, where is the extra eligible blocking receiver?  Teams are rarely stacking the box against us, which means it's 5 vs 4 on the line.  If we bring in an additional OL as an eligible receiver, then it's 6 vs 4.  That should be more than enough to get decent yards on each run play.  However, what percentage of our run plays come from the shotgun versus Josh under center.  Are we too obvious when we call a rushing play?  Is it possible that both Motor and Moss suck, or is the offensive line that bad?  I mean, these are NFL talented players who can't win a 5 vs 4 matchup?  I argue that alone seems illogical.  With that, for me, I believe it is our lack of creative scheme.  I think about our rushing attack before and after Greg Roman.  The man had a system out of the shotgun that couldn't be touched and we torched the league in rushing.  Why is that not something we can somewhat emulate?

 

3 - Even with other teams playing two safeties deep, the deep crossing routes shouldn't be effected by this as much.  If the safety does shade over, then the seam down the middle should be free.  Josh rolling out and hitting someone deep on the sideline was a majority of our highlights last season, but I can't think of more than a few times we've hit that play or even tried.

 

7 - Where the hell is the McKenzie sweep plays?  We would at least keep the defense on their guard with those plays and creep towards the LOS, but nothing this year.

(2) On Sunday the issue was that our below average RB's combined with a worst in the NFL injury plagued O-line.  When healthy (Dawkins/Feliciano/Morse/Williams/Brown) we have an average O-line.  This is enough for Allen, Knox & the WR's to go off on teams.  We can't forget that prior to the Jaguars game the Bills were at or near the top in every offensive category that mattered.

 

(3) Before the Jaguars game Allen was hitting deep passes of every kind.  Even against Pitt he hit a couple (including the Sanders drop of a 35yard pass).  On Sunday there wasn't time to confidently sit in the pocket and hit a deep cross.

 

(7) A friend in Buffalo said that callers were claiming the Bills don't want to get McKenzie banged up as he is our only real option for kick & punt returns.  I don't know if there's any truth to this but it seems like the only logical explanation for the lack of McK gimmick plays.

 

Ultimately, our offensive problems come from the fact that we do not have anything approaching a dynamic RB and our O-line is at best average when fully healthy. When banged up like on Sunday the O-line becomes a huge liability.  Don't forget that the O-line was called for THREE PF's.  Those are hard to recover from in a drive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Virgil]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

(3) Before the Jaguars game Allen was hitting deep passes of every kind.  Even against Pitt he hit a couple (including the Sanders drop of a 35yard pass).  On Sunday there wasn't time to confidently sit in the pocket and hit a deep cross.

 

(7) A friend in Buffalo said that callers were claiming the Bills don't want to get McKenzie banged up as he is our only real option for kick & punt returns.  I don't know if there's any truth to this but it seems like the only logical explanation for the lack of McK gimmick plays.

 

3 - I agree on overall deep balls, even though we didn't try any against the Jags.  I'm moreso talking about the deep crossing routes where the boys would toe tap the sideline.  That play is gone

 

7 - If that's the case, then let someone else run that play.  Isn't that what we drafted Stevenson for?

[Big Turk]

Deep crossers can't be ran when you can't sustain blocks to allow them to develop.

 

Last year we stonewalled oncoming pass rushers for the most part, even against blitzes. This year, 4 man rushes are in the backfield constantly causing pressure...

[Augie]

37 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Defenses have caught up to what we did last year and we haven't adjusted. It's the same thing happening to the Chiefs. We are too one dimensional to counter. The scheme that defenses are playing against us can traditionally be beat by running the ball but our offensive line can't win a 5 on 4 matchup and our RBs aren't explosive enough to take advantage of the few opportunities that are there. The next best counter is TE seam routes and we have been without Knox the past 2 weeks. We need a complete change in our offensive philosophy. WR crossing routes aren't going to work anymore, defenses are selling out to stop them and we have no change up.

 

People gave me crap when I said we NEED to be able to run the ball. “WHY?” they asked, when it looked so easy to throw, especially in meaningless preseason. 

 

We need at least two new starters on the OLine. I expect that to happen this offseason. Guys we have starting could be decent depth, but are not starting material. I also think our OL coach has at best a 50/50 chance of being back next year.

 

We have issues, but I think when we get our starters back we have a good chance to rebound. We were a top scoring team before last week, albeit against generally weak opponents.  There is ZERO doubt they will be fired up and having Knox back adds a dimension we were sorely missing last week. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Like many of you, I am both frustrated and perplexed by our offensive performance this season.  While I understand the need to evolve schemes before the league catches up to you, I can't quite figure out when that happened to us.  We were able to move the ball just fine at the end of last season, were good against the Colts, played a good defense in windy conditions against the Ravens, and then puttered against the Chiefs.  In the Chiefs game, I don't know that they "figured us out" so much as the matchup wasn't in our favor and we just had the wrong plan.  More so, I think about the Ravens offense.  They dominate the regular season and flop in the playoffs.  I get needing to make a change for the playoffs and practicing that in parts of the season, but the Ravens usually stick with what works during the regular season for the past few years. 

 

So with that, why did we effectively change our scheme that was apparently working?  Here are my questions?

 

1 - With Gabe Davis leading us in Red Zone TDs last season, why is he no longer in those packages as much?  While I understand Sanders new role in the offense, red zone packages are typically different

 

Can't answer this.  IMO we are giving Sanders a role he has not completely earned with his game performance.  He and Josh don't seem to be on the same page, for whatever reason.  He has caught less than 50% of his targets in 4 games, and Davis should be featured more.

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

2 - Do we have a runningback problem or an offensive line problem? 

 

"Yes", but IMO it's more on the OL.  It may be a scheme problem, where we're asking OLmen to work in a scheme that doesn't suit them.  I'm not sure if it's coaching or play, but (for example) in a play from Erik Turner which I put up in a thread elsewhere, instead of getting a piece of the DT and ensuring the Dawkins could seal him off, Boettger moved immediately to the 2nd level for the linebacker.  Dawkins failed to seal off his man, and he got into the backfield to chase Motor down for a loss.  That said, on the other side of the line the OLmen were totally failing to open a hole (where I think the play was supposed to go)

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

However, what percentage of our run plays come from the shotgun versus Josh under center.  Are we too obvious when we call a rushing play?

 

That's an easy one to answer.  (click to embiggen).  According to this, we actually run an equal amount from shotgun vs. under center.

But in terms of play frequency, we're far more likely to pass than run from the shotgun.

 

I think the stats may be skewed by Allen's scrambles.

I also think we very likely have run play "tells" from under center.

 

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I mean, these are NFL talented players who can't win a 5 vs 4 matchup? 

 

I'll be straight up I don't know enough about how defenses handle the possibility of a run from a pass-centric team, but recall when it's a "5 on 4 matchup" in the passing game, the defense may be using twists and stunts to overload one side of the line and to disguise who is coming.  So it's not really "5 on 4", it's more likely "3 on 4" or "2 on 3" where they're overloading half the OL while the other side goes "where'd he go, that dude I was gonna block?"

 

The Bills OL, for whatever reason, does not handle twists and stunts well at all.

 

It's kind of like the Ravens offense.  They were unstoppable in 2019, until the Bills and McDermott throttled them except for 1-2 long plays.  Then Tennessee used what they saw from us and added their own twists, and shut them down in the playoffs.  In 2020, they looked more vulnerable.  Now they've evolved somewhat.  Lamar can hit some of the passes he used to never attempt.  Defenses have to cover more of the field against them.

 

Similar thing for the Bills.  Teams have figured out what they don't have to defend with us.  They've figured out how decent front-7s can "steal our women and plunder our cattle" on OL with 4 defenders, by using stunts and twists.  That frees them to put 2 safeties over the top and flood the middle of the field with 5 DBs/LBs to take away the crossers that Allen feasted on last season. 

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I argue that alone seems illogical.  With that, for me, I believe it is our lack of creative scheme.  I think about our rushing attack before and after Greg Roman.  The man had a system out of the shotgun that couldn't be touched and we torched the league in rushing.  Why is that not something we can somewhat emulate?

 

We don't have the quality of OL that we had then, or that the Ravens have - big strong bruisers who can eat DLmen for brekkers .  But yes, it's a valid question why we can't be more effective and creative in our run play design.  IMO Daboll tries to be creative in the wrong way, by designing these intricate schemes we don't practice enough to pull off without burbles.

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

3 - Even with other teams playing two safeties deep, the deep crossing routes shouldn't be effected by this as much.

 

It's not the 2 safeties, it's the other 5 defenders because they're creating pressure with 4

 

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

6 - While Sanders has made some great plays for us, it feels to be at the expense of the other receivers.  Is this intentional or is really just the only person getting open?

 

I haven't watched enough all-22 to answer this, but I'm not sure he's getting open enough to have earned the 84% of the snaps he's getting.  He's definitely getting snaps at the expense of Davis and McKenzie, and I think he may benefit from less workload.

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

7 - Where the hell is the McKenzie sweep plays?  We would at least keep the defense on their guard with those plays and creep towards the LOS, but nothing this year.

 

See above.  If McKenzie isn't on the field much, him being on the field is a "tell" for a reverse or a sweep.  He needs to be on the field as a WR enough for it not to be a "tell".  We're bringing him on and using him in motion, but it's actually been a decoy to get the D to pursue a sweep.

 

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

8 - When Josh went off on the sidelines against the Dolphins, who was he yelling at?  It looked like he was targeting his offensive line.  Has that relationship soured a bit?  I'm not saying they are tanking in response, but the tension is real.  Josh has not looked relaxed all season.

 

I don't think the OL is "soured" with Josh, but he's justifiably frustrated with how they're playing at times.  If he wasn't willing to let them have it, that would be a problem.  In the Dolphins game, the coaches helped the OL adjust and they responded with strong play that gave Josh time in the 2nd half.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Like many of you, I am both frustrated and perplexed by our offensive performance this season.  While I understand the need to evolve schemes before the league catches up to you, I can't quite figure out when that happened to us.  We were able to move the ball just fine at the end of last season, were good against the Colts, played a good defense in windy conditions against the Ravens, and then puttered against the Chiefs.  In the Chiefs game, I don't know that they "figured us out" so much as the matchup wasn't in our favor and we just had the wrong plan.  More so, I think about the Ravens offense.  They dominate the regular season and flop in the playoffs.  I get needing to make a change for the playoffs and practicing that in parts of the season, but the Ravens usually stick with what works during the regular season for the past few years. 

 

 

 

2 - Do we have a runningback problem or an offensive line problem?  Additionally, where is the extra eligible blocking receiver?  Teams are rarely stacking the box against us, which means it's 5 vs 4 on the line.  If we bring in an additional OL as an eligible receiver, then it's 6 vs 4.  That should be more than enough to get decent yards on each run play.  However, what percentage of our run plays come from the shotgun versus Josh under center.  Are we too obvious when we call a rushing play?  Is it possible that both Motor and Moss suck, or is the offensive line that bad?  I mean, these are NFL talented players who can't win a 5 vs 4 matchup?  I argue that alone seems illogical.  With that, for me, I believe it is our lack of creative scheme.  I think about our rushing attack before and after Greg Roman.  The man had a system out of the shotgun that couldn't be touched and we torched the league in rushing.  Why is that not something we can somewhat emulate?

 

 

Really good break down of the how and why we've ended up with a running attack that is where it is.  My take is from this video is that essentially we have mixed scheme personal that we mash into a zone block scheme because it minimizes missed blocks that blow up your running game.   Although clearly we are still missing blocks and our running game is still getting blown up.

 

 

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Deep crossers can't be ran when you can't sustain blocks to allow them to develop.

 

Last year we stonewalled oncoming pass rushers for the most part, even against blitzes. This year, 4 man rushes are in the backfield constantly causing pressure...

 

Yep the simple answer is probably the right one. Dawkins and Williams both played very well last year. This year they are both below average. Our interior was pretty meh last year but at least we had the outsides protected for the most part. Now we are weak everywhere on the offensive line. It's a very difficult problem to overcome.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Yep the simple answer is probably the right one. Dawkins and Williams both played very well last year. This year they are both below average. Our interior was pretty meh last year but at least we had the outsides protected for the most part. Now we are weak everywhere on the offensive line. It's a very difficult problem to overcome.

 

This is true.  I also think that opposing DCs have figured out how best to confuse and exploit our IOL.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, realtruelove said:

It appears that they are intentionally throttling the offense and using the regular season to test a multitude of plays, so teams in the playoffs will not be prepared for what will be unleashed on them.  

Sadly, there are people who actually believe this.

[ProcessTruster]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Defenses have caught up to what we did last year and we haven't adjusted. It's the same thing happening to the Chiefs. We are too one dimensional to counter. The scheme that defenses are playing against us can traditionally be beat by running the ball but our offensive line can't win a 5 on 4 matchup and our RBs aren't explosive enough to take advantage of the few opportunities that are there. The next best counter is TE seam routes and we have been without Knox the past 2 weeks. We need a complete change in our offensive philosophy. WR crossing routes aren't going to work anymore, defenses are selling out to stop them and we have no change up.

All they need is a healthy Spencer Brown and Dawson Knox.   They had the O Line fixed when Brown went in and then lost it when he went out.  The guy is a 6'8" high motor monster and a complete change up vs the softies on the rest of the line.   Knox is a good blocker on those counter plays and all that was lost when he went out.   Tommy Sweeney is strictly a backup 

[RunTheBall]

It’s very simple. If we can’t run the ball effectively (that doesn’t mean 50% of the time), we will not be going to the Super Bowl. We may not even win the division because right now the friggin Pats* (god I hate them) have a team that is playing the type of game that gives us trouble. 

 

I don’t care if it’s scheme, personnel, coaching or whatever. We’ve got a month and a half to figure it out to make a run. Next year there needs to be wholesale changes. I’m sick of this “finesse” BS line that get’s their asses kicked constantly. They are SOFT. We need some large angry men and a scheme that allows them to bury people in the run game.