Huh, this is weird (Jags game personnel sets)

[RiotAct]

hopefully we don’t “vanilla” our way to .500!

[Scott7975]

As I have said before... Daboll does not know how to mix things up.  He doesn't mix up personnel.  He doesn't mix up the pass/run downs very well.  He just doesn't.  There are hardly any motions or misdirection this year either.  I don't care that McKenzie is the punt returner.  It was a staple last season.  If he can go in there and catch passes and try to block then he can fake and run jet sweeps.  The Bills are making it too easy on a defense.

 

Its almost as if they took an explosive offense of last year and dumbed it down.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Scott7975

[billsbackto81]

12 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I don't really find it that weird. The Bills ran 11 personnel something like 75% of the time last year. It's their bread and butter personnel wise and what they should be doing. I guess it's weird that it was every single play but it's their strength on offense. They did run 11 with an extra OL instead of TE on a couple occasions.. which didn't work, so there's that.

Cant argue that point. And although I think it's important to strike a balance between the pass and run game it shouldn't be forced into the game plan when your passing scheme is so freaking good.  It should be sprinkled in until it reaches a level of respect from opposing defenses which we clearly do not have.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

As I have said before... Daboll does not know how to mix things up.  He doesn't mix up personnel. 

 

Except that the reason this is notable to me is that normally, the Bills do "mix things up" with personnel much more than this.

You can find data at

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/personnel-groupings/offense/offensive-personnel-grouping-frequency-2021/

On average, we run 66% (1,1), 8% (1,2), 7% (2,1), 12% (1,0) and 1-2% of 4 other formations.

(doesn't seem to have week 9 stats up there yet)

12 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I don't really find it that weird. The Bills ran 11 personnel something like 75% of the time last year. It's their bread and butter personnel wise and what they should be doing. I guess it's weird that it was every single play but it's their strength on offense. They did run 11 with an extra OL instead of TE on a couple occasions.. which didn't work, so there's that.

 

Well, it's weird to me because if we were struggling to run the ball or if Sweeney was struggling with blocking, how about trying a fullback (2,0)?

And we usually do (as you point out) change things up at least 25% of the time

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Except that the reason this is notable to me is that normally, the Bills do "mix things up" with personnel much more than this.

You can find data at

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/personnel-groupings/offense/offensive-personnel-grouping-frequency-2021/

On average, we run 66% (1,1), 8% (1,2), 7% (2,1), 12% (1,0) and 1-2% of 4 other formations.

(doesn't seem to have week 9 stats up there yet)

 

Well, it's weird to me because if we were struggling to run the ball or if Sweeney was struggling with blocking, how about trying a fullback (2,0)?

And we usually do (as you point out) change things up at least 25% of the time

 

On the season the Bills ran 320 (not including week 9 as you said- its not updated) plays in 1-1 and 160 plays in the all other formations combined.  Also if you dig into it, some of those other formations are completely lopsided in play selection.  For instance in 2-1 personnel they ran the ball 82% of the time. I stand by what I said and Daboll does not mix it up.  Our offense is too easy to defend based on tendencies, formations, and poor o line play.  Some of that is on Daboll.  

 

Also look at it by week.  Week two 11 personnel 70%.  Week three 77%. Week six 84%.  Week eight 74%.  Any other given week its primarily 2 personnel groupings with 11 personnel being at least 50%.  That is not mixing up personnel.  It is way too easy on a defense to identify what the Bills are going to do.  Even if they are wrong by the couple surprises a game they either are fine because of bad o line play or big deal it was one first down.

 

Thank you for this link.  I actually looked for one and couldn't find it.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Scott7975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

On the season the Bills ran 320 (not including week 9 as you said- its not updated) plays in 1-1 and 160 plays in the all other formations combined.  Also if you dig into it, some of those other formations are completely lopsided in play selection.  For instance in 2-1 personnel they ran the ball 82% of the time. I stand by what I said and Daboll does not mix it up.  Our offense is too easy to defend based on tendencies, formations, and poor o line play.  Some of that is on Daboll.  

 

Also look at it by week.  Week two 11 personnel 70%.  Week three 77%. Week six 84%.  Week eight 74%.  Any other given week its primarily 2 personnel groupings with 11 personnel being at least 50%.  That is not mixing up personnel.  It is way too easy on a defense to identify what the Bills are going to do.  Even if they are wrong by the couple surprises a game they either are fine because of bad o line play or big deal it was one first down.

 

Thank you for this link.  I actually looked for one and couldn't find it.

 

So now that you have the site, can you pick a team you feel does “mix it up” leading to more offensive success, and tell us how their personnel use differs W2W?

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So now that you have the site, can you pick a team you feel does “mix it up” leading to more offensive success, and tell us how their personnel use differs W2W?

 

Not tonight but there arent too many teams that cant also run the football and have swiss cheese for an o line.  Different teams can get away with different things.  They dont have the combined problem of a team that cant run the football, or pass block, or primarily likes to go downfield.  Im not sure what Daboll can do but I am sure there is something he can do to help.  Like maybe some shorter passing schemes or something or maybe actually run the football more often and change up the blocking scheme to help those guys out.  There are times in game where he runs the same down.  There are times its obvious he is going to run in the red zone.  There are times where he runs and it works so he does it every down until its stopped. Then goes back to passing every down <--- that is when I think he does not mix it up well primarily.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Scott7975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

Not tonight but there arent too many teams that cant also run the football and have swiss cheese for an o line.  Different teams can get away with different things.  They dont have the combined problem of a team that cant run the football, or pass block, or primarily likes to go downfield.

 

How would “mixing it up” more than we do (normally this year, about 33% of the time) help these things?

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How would “mixing it up” more than we do (normally this year, about 33% of the time) help these things?

 

I assume you realize I am not talking about mixing up just the personnel groupings?  If that is the case you shouldnt really have to ask me this question.  Tendencies would be the answer.

 

The defense knows we are going to pass the ball.

The defense pretty much knows based on package, down, distance, etc when we are going to run the football

The defense knows they can get home with 4 a lot

The defense knows our o line sucks against stunts

 

When the defense is wrong which most of the time it isnt than its not a huge deal because most of the time they arent and the few times they are doesnt burn them bad enough.  Change habits.  Might help the o line out.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How would “mixing it up” more than we do (normally this year, about 33% of the time) help these things?

 

I mean I guess I feel like you are asking me these questions like you think Im off my rocker.  Which is ok.  Im no football super expert but I am a computer programming logics expert.  This stuff feels logical to me.  If I am wrong then I am wrong.  But I feel like Daboll could do better and he doesn't do a good job at keeping a defense guessing.  Nor does he do a good job helping Allen and the o line out.  

 

Seems to me that if you could shorten the passing routes and call a quick strike game that would help the o line, help Allen, and help open our deep ball up.  Might even help the run game out.  If we are one dimensional then there needs to be more dimensions to that one dimension.  If they cant fix the run game then the pass game needs to change.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Scott7975

[Wayne Cubed]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Well, it's weird to me because if we were struggling to run the ball or if Sweeney was struggling with blocking, how about trying a fullback (2,0)?

And we usually do (as you point out) change things up at least 25% of the time

 

Yea I get that. They've attempted to run 20 personnel, I-formation kind of plays and it just hasn't worked either. When players aren't executing it's really difficult to say a change of formation/personnel is going to do anything. Plus in the previous week, they went to more 11 personnel in the second half against that Cover 2 and beat it.

 

They even went with 6 OL in 11 personnel, taking Sweeney off, and the play was still blown up. 

[colin]

Our O wasn't prepared and we had no change up that would work.

 

dabol doesn't run the o very well, we just score and move the ball due to talent.  THAT'S MY HOT TAKE.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, colin said:

Our O wasn't prepared and we had no change up that would work.

 

dabol doesn't run the o very well, we just score and move the ball due to talent.  THAT'S MY HOT TAKE.

 

Too simplistic IMO

[stevestojan]

I think Daboll uses the “ask madden” feature on Madden 2007 when calling the Game. 

[TheFunPolice]

They treated the Jags like a bye week and it bit them

[colin]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Too simplistic IMO

 

 

i mean to write

 

THAT'S MY HOT TAKE, SIMPLE AS.

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

Daboll extract has made this Buffalo icecream bland.