Kurt Warner breakdown on Bills vsJaguars game

[Scott7975]

56 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Added this vid to my post because it's almost exactly what I meant.

Thanks for this! 17 was awful in this game.

Can't wait to see him overcome this adversity vs Jests. 

 

You can post this over and over everyday all you want.  It doesnt make it correct.  Many posters showed you that you are wrong.  Quit spamming.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Scott7975

[CincyBillsFan]

57 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Added this vid to my post because it's almost exactly what I meant.

Thanks for this! 17 was awful in this game.

Can't wait to see him overcome this adversity vs Jests. 

I believe that was a 2nd & goal and if Allen hits Moss at that moment he's tackled at the 4 yard line for a 3rd and goal. I have no problem with Allen looking to get the ball into the end zone on that play.

 

The real issue is that on first & goal from the 4, Moss lost 3 yards on a run.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I believe that was a 2nd & goal and if Allen hits Moss at that moment he's tackled at the 4 yard line for a 3rd and goal. I have no problem with Allen looking to get the ball into the end zone on that play.

 

The real issue is that on first & goal from the 4, Moss lost 3 yards on a run.

 

 

 

It was actually 3rd and goal at that point so it makes even less sense to make that throw.

[BananaB]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I believe that was a 2nd & goal and if Allen hits Moss at that moment he's tackled at the 4 yard line for a 3rd and goal. I have no problem with Allen looking to get the ball into the end zone on that play.

 

The real issue is that on first & goal from the 4, Moss lost 3 yards on a run.

 

 

It says 3rd and goal right on the picture

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, BananaB said:

It says 3rd and goal right on the picture

Then that makes it even more imperative that Allen NOT throw the ball to Moss on that play unless we think 4th and goal from the 4 yard line is easy to convert.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

Where were the clips of the 118 *hidden* yards of penalties?

 

Still haven't seen replays.  

Edited November 11, 2021 by Big Blitz

[Old Coot]

I thought Warner's analysis of each play was good.  BUT he's looking at an overhead all-22 view & likely takes more than 3 secs to devise his analysis.

 

It's very different on field.

 

That said I think Josh does hold on to the ball too long.

 

I've wondered why other teams often get 5 yards on a safety valve pass to the flat while we get only 1-2 yards.  It may be that Josh holds the ball too long, lofts the ball too high or doesn't place the ball well.

 

On a related note, do the Bills run many timed passing routes?  WR takes a predetermined no. of steps, turns and the balls right there.  If not, why not?

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Where were the clips of the 118 *hidden* yards of penalties?

 

Still haven't seen replays.  

Finally saw first half replays of Williams and Klein unsportsmanlike penalties. Both did absolutely nothing illegal, pure phantom calls.  And Tavon Austin was the one who held Tre.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Finally saw first half replays of Williams and Klein unsportsmanlike penalties. Both did absolutely nothing illegal, pure phantom calls.  And Tavon Austin was the one who held Tre.

No offense but what does that have to do with this video?  Control your controllables.  This video may seem nitpicky to some but it's how you continue to grow as a quarterback.

[JMF2006]

We all know he didn't have a good day.

 

He has proven he learns quickly and if the Jets try to use the Jags game plan Josh will pick them apart.

 

They better come up with something equally good but different or this game will end badly for the Jests.

[Jrb1979]

4 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

We all know he didn't have a good day.

 

He has proven he learns quickly and if the Jets try to use the Jags game plan Josh will pick them apart.

 

They better come up with something equally good but different or this game will end badly for the Jests.

Disagree. Miami did the same game plan the week before a help the Bills offense in check for 3 quarters. 

[MJS]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Cover1 and Jim Kubiak and others often point out plays where they assert Allen's reads are deep-to-shallow.  If true, that may be a problem with play design.

That's normal, though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

That's normal, though.

 

It's not abnormal, but the point is, if Allen is being coached to read deep-to-shallow, he's not at fault for passing up the immediate quick shots Warner points out.

 

And when the OL is struggling against pressure, it's time to change the order of the reads and hit the quick shot immediately.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's not abnormal, but the point is, if Allen is being coached to read deep-to-shallow, he's not at fault for passing up the immediate quick shots Warner points out.

 

And when the OL is struggling against pressure, it's time to change the order of the reads and hit the quick shot immediately.

Agree hapless. Couldn't understand what you meant yesterday but do now. Great post definitely agree.

[RoyBatty is alive]

17 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

warner is an old, bitter wet towel. its sad to see how jealous he is of JA17.

 

Oh come on, you cant be serious.  

[34-78-83]

I think what folks might be getting at a bit here is - in Warner's breakdowns of Josh's really good games (from last season), Warner does indeed sound extremely luke warm on Josh as a whole and I remember making a mental note of that and wondering why he sounded like that. I am pretty sure its because his very early analysis of Josh from like 2018 was that he could NEVER improve some of his issues. So its one of those Josh has blown up his narrative things. It's hard for people (even good people like Kurt) to be humble enough to give in to their previous narratives.

[JohnNord]

17 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

Allen really did struggle in the game. Kurt Warner does amazing breakdowns.

I thought this was a good breakdown of his performance.  It left me coming away with the need for Allen to balance opportunities to find “hidden yardage” as well as making the big play.  
 

There’s no doubt that Allen missed some opportunities to move the chains.  Though if he took the advice Warner gave him on every one of those plays, he be resigned to Captain Checkdown 2.0.  That’s not what we want out of Josh.  But at the same time, when coverage and situation dictates it, he does need to take those short throws.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I just feel like we could have hammered them with Diggs in this game and won.  

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

16 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

4.  Hearing a lot about cover 2/Tampa 2/2 deeps shell.....that seems like a general approach teams are using against explosive offenses...I am not an expert but again, sometimes this stuff is move counter move.  Something has to be there when you have talent and the Bills have the talent, figure it out....

This is the same thing our group of fans at the bar has been saying every time a defense employs the magical 2 deep shell defense.  There has to be a part of the field that is left open if teams are selling out to stop the deep hits.  You simply can't cover every player and every part of the field when there are so many weapons.  Getting Dawson Knox back will be a HUGE boost to busting this defensive strategy.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Disagree. I thought it was fair. Allen has a terrible game even factoring in line play. I don’t think that’s actually arguable.

 

Well, Allen would agree with you.  He didn't sit there distraught in his post game presser and say "I played like *****" (which I've never heard him say before) because he thought he had a passable game with a few mistakes.

 

14 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This is kind of a false narrative. Warner has had complimentary videos about Allen in the past.

 

Eh, I don't think it was the reason for that video nor is it the reason I say I don't get as much out of Warner's breakdowns as I do out of some other.

 

But keeping in mind that I lived in St Louis through the "Greatest Show on Turf" days and the aftermath, like 2002 when Warner threw 11 INTs and fumbled 8 times in 6 starts then 2003 where he fumbled 6 times and threw a pick in his 1 start.....while his wife Brenda went on every radio show she could to explain that the team benched her husband because he's a Christian and they didn't like that (it was interpreted the same way as OBJ's father, being his mouthpiece)....I think it's fair to say Warner does ride a narrative sometimes.

 

And one of his narratives about the 2018 QB class was unquestionably that Allen was a big inaccurate jock who couldn't think fast on his feet, of a type that Warner saw preferred to him on multiple occasions during his career and is still salty about.

 

He also thinks his particular strengths are something every QB should be able to accomplish and if they don't, it means they're bad.  Because of his Arena Ball background, making lightening-fast decisions on where to go with the ball and being able to throw short passes with deadly accuracy while on a dead run were his bread-n-butter.   One way I think about it is that Warner has a "Spider Chart" in his brain mapping out his skills and strengths, and when he's evaluating a QB it's from the perspective of how well that QB fits Warner's personal "Spider Chart" as a QB.  But there are other aspects of QB play that Warner was weaker on, giving a different "Spider Chart" that can still indicate good play, and Warner seems to (in general) undervalue these.

 

Allen is improving, but accurate short passes have NEVER been his strength and are still a developing aspect of his game. 

 

Confirmation bias is a "thing", and I think it is likely that Warner looks for aspects of Allen's play that confirm his bias vs. taking a more objective view that factors in OL play and what appears to be the play design (deep to short sometimes, and that he may come off Diggs on a short route because Diggs was his first read IF he was being covered a certain way and not if he wasn't).