Mixed In With Poor Play Luck Has Not Been On Our Side In Losses

[corta765]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don’t know how it breaks down by QB, but one of the predictive stats for season win totals is mean regression for teams with either a high or low win% in one score games the year prior…over the course of a regular season games decided by 8 points or fewer are a 50/50 proposition, statistically. Meaning basically there’s no real correlation from season to season of a team’s ability to win close games.

 

Exactly. While I get wanting your QB to lead game winning drives 24/7, you can't pick the good games your QB has and what your opponent does. Until this week Allen was #1 for MVP in betting because he played well. Seems weird to jump ship that fast as a fan anger wise

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Exactly. While I get wanting your QB to lead game winning drives 24/7, you can't pick the good games your QB has and what your opponent does. Until this week Allen was #1 for MVP in betting because he played well. Seems weird to jump ship that fast as a fan anger wise

No matter what Allen has done, there will always be those who are quick to blame him for everything. A lot of people do that for QB's anyways, but it is compounded for Josh Allen for some reason.

The QB does touch the ball on every offensive play, so he is the single biggest factor to wins and losses, in my opinion. I know everyone likes to throw around that "wins are not a QB stat" but I think that is an oversimplification. Of course QB's contribute tremendously to wins and losses. But it isn't all on them, and when your oline can't block, it makes everything infinitely more difficult for the QB to manage.

[SoCal Deek]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don’t know how it breaks down by QB, but one of the predictive stats for season win totals is mean regression for teams with either a high or low win% in one score games the year prior…over the course of a regular season games decided by 8 points or fewer are a 50/50 proposition, statistically. Meaning basically there’s no real correlation from season to season of a team’s ability to win close games.

That’s not the same thing. You cannot look at a close final score and say the star QB had the ball in his hands when the clock ran out. Sometimes the losing team gets a late practically meaningless score. Other times the winning team has the ball and don’t need to do anything but sit on it. On Sunday, the Bills were behind, they knew what they needed to do and they failed…against a poor opponent. Call it whatever you want but this is NOT a case of ‘bad luck’ or ‘breaks’ going against them. They just failed. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by SoCal Deek

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s not the same thing. You cannot look at a close final score and say the star QB had the ball in his hands when the clock ran out. Sometimes the losing team gets a late practically meaningless score. Other times the winning team has the ball and don’t need to do anything but sit on it. On Sunday, the Bills were behind, they knew what they needed to do and they failed…against a poor opponent. Call it whatever you want but this is NOT a case of ‘bad luck’ or ‘breaks’ going against them. They just failed. 

And I'm saying unless you have evidence to the contrary, I'm not aware of any teams being particularly more or less adept than others at 'knowing what they need to do and failing (or succeeding)' over time.

[corta765]

16 hours ago, MJS said:

No matter what Allen has done, there will always be those who are quick to blame him for everything. A lot of people do that for QB's anyways, but it is compounded for Josh Allen for some reason.

The QB does touch the ball on every offensive play, so he is the single biggest factor to wins and losses, in my opinion. I know everyone likes to throw around that "wins are not a QB stat" but I think that is an oversimplification. Of course QB's contribute tremendously to wins and losses. But it isn't all on them, and when your oline can't block, it makes everything infinitely more difficult for the QB to manage.

 

I would also add that Josh has proven over the last few years he is very capable and dependable at winning games, this year it just hasn't gone our way as the Titans and Jags he came up short. It happens. I know people idolize Brady or Rodgers etc.. but they have not won every game in their career and successfully comeback every time.