THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - No Offense

[Shaw66]

The Buffalo Bills, the coaches and the players, have a lot of work to do.  All the fans have to do is remember that it’s a long season, and what matters is the next game.  Every week, it’s the next game.

 

The Bills lost to the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon, 9-6.  The Bills have been looking worse and worse, week after week.  Kansas City, Tennessee, Miami, and now Jacksonville.  

 

To be fair, it’s not the Bills who have been looking worse and worse.  It’s the Bills’ offense.   The defense has motored right along, somehow not looking dominant but getting the job done.  The defense held the Jags to 218 yards, way below the Bills league leading 262 per game, and to 9 points, way below the Bills’ league leading 15 per game.   Jacksonville’s offense did more or less nothing and was fortunate to get three field goals.  Fortunate, because Sean McDermott inexplicably declined a holding penalty and left the Jags in field goal range on 4th down.

 

Josh Allen was more or less horrible.  He threw two interceptions, and fumble on a play where he should have handed off for a key first down.  He missed some guys, and he stood in the pocket looking endlessly for openings.  Either the opportunities weren’t there – likely, or Josh didn’t know what he was looking at. 

 

In his defense, Allen took an absolute beating.  The offensive line imploded.  Once again, they were largely ineffective in the run game.  Allen had all the meaningful runs, and they were on scrambles, not designed runs.  And the offensive line repeatedly failed to protect Allen.  Allen was sacked four times and hit eight times, and he was running for his life on multiple other plays.  Williams at right guard and Spencer Brown at right tackle are a much better combo than Cody Ford at guard with Williams sliding over to tackle.  Williams is clearly better at guard than Ford, and Brown better than Williams at tackle.  Brown needs to get back in the lineup.  Dion Dawkins wasn’t winning any prizes, either. 

 

Penalties were bad, but they didn’t determine the outcome.  If your team gives up only three field goals in the entire game, how bad could penalties have hurt?  Penalties didn’t cost the offense three touchdowns.  The penalties were just an indicator of how far from a good team the Bills were on Sunday.

 

Fans kept waiting for the offense to wake up, for that Allen magic to take over and win the game.   One TD would do it, and there were glimmers of hope when Allen connected with Singletary and Diggs, but the final drive was like the rest of the game – missed opportunities, and Allen under too much pressure. 

 

If the Bills can’t run the ball, they have to get Stefon Diggs more involved.

 

Dawson Knox’s return should help, when it happens. 

 

But if the line can’t protect Allen, it’s going to be a struggle.

 

Repeating last week’s theme, this is the part of the season that separates the good teams from the rest.   One thing the good teams do this time of year is figure out how to make their offenses work, now that the league has figured out how to stop them.  The Bills are getting stopped, the Chiefs are getting stopped. 

 

This is the part of the season where the running game has to start producing the tough yards.  The Bills offense doesn’t look like last season’s offense, primarily because the 8-15 yard completions over the middle, the crossing routes and the little Beasley slants that always produced first downs.   They’re not there because teams are ignoring the play fake and simply taking away the passing lanes.  Teams are ignoring the play fake because they know the running game won’t hurt them. 

 

Maybe the Bills’ offensive line, particularly with Feliciano gone and Brown down, simply isn’t good enough.  Maybe Brian Daboll doesn’t have the creativity to revitalize the offense.  But it’s a long season, and it’s played one game at a time. 

 

The Jets are the next test.   They will be ready.  The question is whether the Bills will be.

 

GO BILLS!

 

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks Shaw…an excellent summary. Your one line said it all: the offense is getting worse, and worse, and worse. Daboll doesn’t appear to have any answers at all. Yesterday it looked like the Jaguars had at least 14 guys on defense. No matter where the Bills went with the ball they were met with a swarm of defenders. Either our offense is too predictable or Josh isn’t able to read the defense…or both.

[Son of a K-Gun]

Thanks @Shaw66, good level-headed response to what happened yesterday.  The sky isn't quite falling yet but the alarm has certainly been sounded.  The team knows what they need to do and I think the key point you make is that the line isn't good enough.  The line can get by with their "best 5", but once they have to plug in Ike and Ford...yikes.  This line is straight up exposed against any sort of quality front four.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Son of a K-Gun said:

Thanks @Shaw66, good level-headed response to what happened yesterday.  The sky isn't quite falling yet but the alarm has certainly been sounded.  The team knows what they need to do and I think the key point you make is that the line isn't good enough.  The line can get by with their "best 5", but once they have to plug in Ike and Ford...yikes.  This line is straight up exposed against any sort of quality front four.

And much as people liked beating on him, Feliciano was an important part of the line.  Morse is a finesse player, not a power guy, and putting Feliciano and Williams on either side of Morse strengthened the middle.  In another year, Brown may be the best offensive lineman the Bills have, and it that's true, then Beane is the one who has some explaining to do. 

[Buffalo Junction]

One second…. When the Oline actually gave Allen that extra time he often managed to find Sanders and Diggs. They had no real answers for that pass rush though, and there seem to be issues with talent, communication, consistency, coaching, and playcalling. 

[Son of a K-Gun]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And much as people liked beating on him, Feliciano was an important part of the line.  Morse is a finesse player, not a power guy, and putting Feliciano and Williams on either side of Morse strengthened the middle.  In another year, Brown may be the best offensive lineman the Bills have, and it that's true, then Beane is the one who has some explaining to do. 

Agree on Feliciano.  If you are looking at Feliciano to be "the guy" on the line you are going to be disappointed.  If he is your number five, you could do a lot worse.  I'm no expert when it comes to judging O-Line play, but it seems like the interior plays more as a unit whereas the tackles are much more on an island.  When your interior features Cody Ford and Ike Boettger it makes it tough to succeed...you can't expect a trio like The Police when the talent is more like the Jonas Brothers.  Sorry, that's disrespectful to the Jonas Brothers.  They're more like Hanson.

[Bob in STL]

Good assessment.  
 

The Jags had a plan to get into our heads.  Their receivers went after Tre White twice in the he first series.  The goaded us  into retaliation penalties all day leading to FOUR unsportsmanlike penalties on Buffalo.  

 

I do think the penalties hurt our offensive rhythm more than you indicated. There was a procedure penalty on 4th and 2 that forced us to punt.  It looked like the defense encroached.  CBS did not show the replay. Our punter then kicked a line drive into the end zone for a net 23.  Frustrating plays happened all day.  
 

There was an unnecessary roughness on RT Williams that killed a drive and it looked like a bad call. 
 

The Jags took the Miami film and exposed us.   There is no Buffalo running game to worry about.   Keep Allen in the pocket by applying blitz pressure from the ends.  The OL could not run block and they were confused on stunts and blitzes.  Many untouched defenders got to Allen. 
 

Josh Allen was all we had and it was not enough.   For all his mistakes, Josh produced 314 yards combined passing and running.  Singletary/Moss together only produced 22 yards running.  The Bills had 301 yards total offense when you factor in the 4 sacks allowed  (-35 yards). 
 

The premature talk of home field in the playoffs can now stop.  The first step is always to win the division title and New England is now just 1/2 a game out and they are improving.  Bellichek has more film to study on this one. 
 

Like it or not Urban Meyer out-coached us.  Daboll had no answers, no adjustments.  McD had some curious moments as well. 
 

The Jets are improving and will be a very hard road test.  
 

All of a sudden we look average and we are in a battle.  
 

 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Good assessment.  
 

The Jags had a plan to get into our heads.  Their receivers went after Tre White twice in the he first series.  The goaded us  into retaliation penalties all day leading to FOUR unsportsmanlike penalties on Buffalo.  

 

I do think the penalties hurt our offensive rhythm more than you indicated. There was a procedure penalty on 4th and 2 that forced us to punt.  It looked like the defense encroached.  CBS did not show the replay. Our punter then kicked a line drive into the end zone for a net 23.  Frustrating plays happened all day.  
 

There was an unnecessary roughness on RT Williams that killed a drive and it looked like a bad call. 
 

The Jags took the Miami film and exposed us.   There is no Buffalo running game to worry about.   Keep Allen in the pocket by applying blitz pressure from the ends.  The OL could not run block and they were confused on stunts and blitzes.  Many untouched defenders got to Allen. 
 

Josh Allen was all we had and it was not enough.   For all his mistakes, Josh produced 314 yards combined passing and running.  Singletary/Moss together only produced 22 yards running.  The Bills had 301 yards total offense when you factor in the 4 sacks allowed  (-35 yards). 
 

The premature talk of home field in the playoffs can now stop.  The first step is always to win the division title and New England is now just 1/2 a game out and they are improving.  Bellichek has more film to study on this one. 
 

Like it or not Urban Meyer out-coached us.  Daboll had no answers, no adjustments.  McD had some curious moments as well. 
 

The Jets are improving and will be a very hard road test.  
 

All of a sudden we look average and we are in a battle.  
 

 

Bob -

 

This is good stuff.  Thanks.  I agree, except about a few small points.  

 

The reason I say the penalties weren't the problem is that the Bills offense was essentially unable to do anything all day.  Yes, the penalties may have cost them a first down here or there.   I agree about the procedure penalty on fourth and two - we didn't get to see the replay, but the only movement I saw on the the Bills' line was in response to someone on the right side of the defensive line clearly coming across.   However, I saw nothing from the Bills yesterday that suggested that even if the officials had gotten that one right, the Bills would have scored a TD.  They needed a TD, all day, and they couldn't find a way to get one.  

 

As for the unnecessary roughness on Williams, I think that was another one of those penalties where the referee gave the wrong number.   He did it several times over the day.   It's hard to imagine that anyone would have called unnecessary roughness on that play by Williams, so I think it was probably on someone else. 

[Bob in STL]

47 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Bob -

 

This is good stuff.  Thanks.  I agree, except about a few small points.  

 

The reason I say the penalties weren't the problem is that the Bills offense was essentially unable to do anything all day.  Yes, the penalties may have cost them a first down here or there.   I agree about the procedure penalty on fourth and two - we didn't get to see the replay, but the only movement I saw on the the Bills' line was in response to someone on the right side of the defensive line clearly coming across.   However, I saw nothing from the Bills yesterday that suggested that even if the officials had gotten that one right, the Bills would have scored a TD.  They needed a TD, all day, and they couldn't find a way to get one.  

 

As for the unnecessary roughness on Williams, I think that was another one of those penalties where the referee gave the wrong number.   He did it several times over the day.   It's hard to imagine that anyone would have called unnecessary roughness on that play by Williams, so I think it was probably on someone else. 

Sure can’t argue with that.  On that subject, I wonder why they stopped going to the end zone?  One trip in the red zone on our first drive and we run and pass sideways.  Seems like flooding our receivers into the end zone and a Josh RPO would be a good thing to try inside the 7.  

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Sure can’t argue with that.  On that subject, I wonder why they stopped going to the end zone?  One trip in the red zone on our first drive and we run and pass sideways.  Seems like flooding our receivers into the end zone and a Josh RPO would be a good thing to try inside the 7.  

I agree.  First and goal from the five, or whatever, and Josh never threw the ball over the goal line.   I was fuming over that.  

 

Gabriel Davis has disappeared (except for his critical drop late in the game), and without Knox the Bills are left with no credible big threat in the end zone.  That doesn't help - Sanders, Beasley, Diggs, and McKenzie aren't guys you can count on to win jump balls.   Still, there have to be plays better than a pass from the five to the four. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The Buffalo Bills, the coaches and the players, have a lot of work to do.  All the fans have to do is remember that it’s a long season, and what matters is the next game.  Every week, it’s the next game.

 

The Bills lost to the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon, 9-6.  The Bills have been looking worse and worse, week after week.  Kansas City, Tennessee, Miami, and now Jacksonville.  

 

To be fair, it’s not the Bills who have been looking worse and worse.  It’s the Bills’ offense.   The defense has motored right along, somehow not looking dominant but getting the job done.  The defense held the Jags to 218 yards, way below the Bills league leading 262 per game, and to 9 points, way below the Bills’ league leading 15 per game.   Jacksonville’s offense did more or less nothing and was fortunate to get three field goals.  Fortunate, because Sean McDermott inexplicably declined a holding penalty and left the Jags in field goal range on 4th down.

 

Josh Allen was more or less horrible.  He threw two interceptions, and fumble on a play where he should have handed off for a key first down.  He missed some guys, and he stood in the pocket looking endlessly for openings.  Either the opportunities weren’t there – likely, or Josh didn’t know what he was looking at. 

 

In his defense, Allen took an absolute beating.  The offensive line imploded.  Once again, they were largely ineffective in the run game.  Allen had all the meaningful runs, and they were on scrambles, not designed runs.  And the offensive line repeatedly failed to protect Allen.  Allen was sacked four times and hit eight times, and he was running for his life on multiple other plays.  Williams at right guard and Spencer Brown at right tackle are a much better combo than Cody Ford at guard with Williams sliding over to tackle.  Williams is clearly better at guard than Ford, and Brown better than Williams at tackle.  Brown needs to get back in the lineup.  Dion Dawkins wasn’t winning any prizes, either. 

 

Penalties were bad, but they didn’t determine the outcome.  If your team gives up only three field goals in the entire game, how bad could penalties have hurt?  Penalties didn’t cost the offense three touchdowns.  The penalties were just an indicator of how far from a good team the Bills were on Sunday.

 

Fans kept waiting for the offense to wake up, for that Allen magic to take over and win the game.   One TD would do it, and there were glimmers of hope when Allen connected with Singletary and Diggs, but the final drive was like the rest of the game – missed opportunities, and Allen under too much pressure. 

 

If the Bills can’t run the ball, they have to get Stefon Diggs more involved.

 

Dawson Knox’s return should help, when it happens. 

 

But if the line can’t protect Allen, it’s going to be a struggle.

 

Repeating last week’s theme, this is the part of the season that separates the good teams from the rest.   One thing the good teams do this time of year is figure out how to make their offenses work, now that the league has figured out how to stop them.  The Bills are getting stopped, the Chiefs are getting stopped. 

 

This is the part of the season where the running game has to start producing the tough yards.  The Bills offense doesn’t look like last season’s offense, primarily because the 8-15 yard completions over the middle, the crossing routes and the little Beasley slants that always produced first downs.   They’re not there because teams are ignoring the play fake and simply taking away the passing lanes.  Teams are ignoring the play fake because they know the running game won’t hurt them. 

 

Maybe the Bills’ offensive line, particularly with Feliciano gone and Brown down, simply isn’t good enough.  Maybe Brian Daboll doesn’t have the creativity to revitalize the offense.  But it’s a long season, and it’s played one game at a time. 

 

The Jets are the next test.   They will be ready.  The question is whether the Bills will be.

 

GO BILLS!

 

Your most accurate line is Brian Daboll doesn't have the creativity to revitalize this offense. I'll always be grateful to Daboll for developing Josh but he's simply a very inconsistent OC.

[CSBill]

3 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Good assessment.  
 

The Jags had a plan to get into our heads.  Their receivers went after Tre White twice in the he first series.  The goaded us  into retaliation penalties all day leading to FOUR unsportsmanlike penalties on Buffalo.  

 

I do think the penalties hurt our offensive rhythm more than you indicated. There was a procedure penalty on 4th and 2 that forced us to punt.  It looked like the defense encroached.  CBS did not show the replay. Our punter then kicked a line drive into the end zone for a net 23.  Frustrating plays happened all day. ……
 

Like it or not Urban Meyer out-coached us.  Daboll had no answers, no adjustments.  McD had some curious moments as well. 
 

Not sure I can say Urb out-coached us, the Bills out-coached (or under-coached) and hurt themselves. The Jags had a lot of luck and a terrible day by the Bills go their way. But better coaching, no, I can’t say it. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

54BUF A.J. Epenesa   DE2       1Iowa               4$5,877,299$1,834,399$1,068,600

 

55BAL from NE
via ATLJK Dobbins        RB21          Ohio State          4$5,729,436$1,726,862$1,041,715

 

Yes, I know Dobbins got hurt and is out for the season. This was the wrong draft pick.  I said so at the time.

 

The defenses KNOW that the can ignore our running backs.  The scarcely defend against them and they still get only 50 or so yards a game. NO CHUNK plays.

 

Also, we have 3 of the 6 blockers on the o-line  (1 OG, 1 OT, 1 TE) out with injures.   We went light on the o-line to beef up the pass rush to counter mobile QB's.  Looks like it was the wrong choice.  

 

61BUF Carlos Basham Jr.DE23Wake Forest4$5,624,943$1,450,868$1,022,717

62GB Josh MyersC22Ohio State4$5,580,136$1,418,280$1,014,570

63KC Creed HumphreyC21Oklahoma4$5,565,208$1,407,424$1,011,856

 

86MIN from SEA
via NYJWyatt Davis           G                 22Ohio State4$4,884,291$912,212$888,053

87PIT Kendrick Green      G                  22Illinois4$4,875,767$906,012$886,50

 

94BAL from KCBen Cleveland  G          22Georgia4$4,820,535$865,844$699,513

 

 

 

[LeGOATski]

Nice write-up.

 

Over the past two weeks I keep telling myself "defense wins championships."

 

I'm glad the Bills are slumping now and not playoff time. They should bounce back and hopefully ride some momentum into the playoffs.

[appoo]

if you're going to say Josh sucked, then you need to put that in perspective, because this was what Josh was dealing with yesterday

 

 

look, any QB is a MASSIVELY mental position to play. If you don't trust your protection off the snap, then you're already in a losing position for that play, and those turnovers were probably a function of mental panic from Allen. When you have anxiety you speed up, you miss things, you lose your basic mental training. 

 

And Josh was dealing with deplorable protection. 

 

Rail on him all you want for those turnovers and not finding people open or diagnosing defenses when he had a clean pocket, but that can't be done in a vacuum. Everything is a function of his confidence in his protection, and then his confidence in his WRs. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

if you're going to say Josh sucked, then you need to put that in perspective, because this was what Josh was dealing with yesterday

 

 

look, any QB is a MASSIVELY mental position to play. If you don't trust your protection off the snap, then you're already in a losing position for that play, and those turnovers were probably a function of mental panic from Allen. When you have anxiety you speed up, you miss things, you lose your basic mental training. 

 

And Josh was dealing with deplorable protection. 

 

Rail on him all you want for those turnovers and not finding people open or diagnosing defenses when he had a clean pocket, but that can't be done in a vacuum. Everything is a function of his confidence in his protection, and then his confidence in his WRs. 

No doubt about that.   However, Josh's job is to make the right decision in every circumstance.  On the play that he fumbled, he should have given the ball to Singletary.  The hole was there, and they only needed two yards.  Josh wanted the ball in his hands, despite what his eyes should have been telling him. 

 

On both of the interceptions, he threw late, under duress, without having seen the field well enough to know where the defense was coming from.   His job was to eat the ball in each case, or throw it away.  He did neither. 

 

If I have to blame the offensive meltdown on anyone, it's on Daboll.  But Allen played like a rookie, again. 

[appoo]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

No doubt about that.   However, Josh's job is to make the right decision in every circumstance.  On the play that he fumbled, he should have given the ball to Singletary.  The hole was there, and they only needed two yards.  Josh wanted the ball in his hands, despite what his eyes should have been telling him. 

 

On both of the interceptions, he threw late, under duress, without having seen the field well enough to know where the defense was coming from.   His job was to eat the ball in each case, or throw it away.  He did neither. 

 

If I have to blame the offensive meltdown on anyone, it's on Daboll.  But Allen played like a rookie, again. 

 

It's your 2nd sentence of which I I'm really going to have a hard time agreeing with. 

 

'However, Josh's job is to make the right decision in every circumstance.'

 

I'm trying to find a good metaphor for this, and keep coming up short. Basically there's no amount of training - short of the psychological rebuilding we did to those soldiers in WWII to get them to CHARGE near certain death on DDay - that's going to allow Josh to maintain the right mental state to keep making the right decisions, when you  had the Jags consistently blowing through the line off the snap. I wouldn't be surprised if their pressure rate was about 50%

 

I don't know - maybe boxing? I'm nailing you with body shots for 5 straight rounds, and sure the first few rounds it didn't hurt, but by round 5 you're feeling them every time, and sure they're only landing 33% of the time, but man it hurts. So in about round round 7, I fake a body shot, but you react to it anyway, opening up a clean hook cross combo, and BAM. 

 

Well that's what happened to Josh eventually. He took enough body shots, that his body & brain began to fail them, and they degraded his mental training. 

 

You're asking to not just have perfect mental recall under unpredictable pressure, but to also overcome his basic fight/flight instinct. 

 

He's not a cyborg. He's still human, with human mental frailties - which are actually strengths because they keep you alive. His brain was putting more resources into not dying than it was towards diagnosing the defense.

Edited November 8, 2021 by appoo

[Freddie's Dead]

None taken....

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

 

I'm trying to find a good metaphor for this, and keep coming up short. Basically there's no amount of training - short of the psychological rebuilding we did to those soldiers in WWII to get them to CHARGE near certain death on DDay - that's going to allow Josh to maintain the right mental state to keep making the right decisions, when you  had the Jags consistently blowing through the line off the snap. I wouldn't be surprised if their pressure rate was about 50%

 

 

McDermott definitely would not agree with you.  Rolling to the right, running away from a tackle, going horizontal, only QBs who aren't in control of their thought processes, try to complete that pass.   Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, everyone throws that ball away.   Everyone.  The interception he threw to Josh Allen was a flat out, dumb rookie mistake that is trained out of every quarterback who is a real success in the NFL.  

 

It's football.  You get tackled, sometimes a lot.   You do not throw the ball up for grabs.   

[Buddo]

Tbh, I think the point being made, is that under the sort of relentless pressure Allen was put under in the game, just about any QB will eventually make mistakes - no matter who he is.

 

Noticeably, the majority of Allen's mistakes, came well into the second half of the game. Trouble is, they were still mistakes.

 

I can'r remember exactly which play it was, but Allen was either intercepted, or done for intentional grounding, when he would have been better off just taking the sack, mainly as iirc, it was a 2nd down play, i.e. no need to panic.

 

The Offense is currently, the major problem the Bills have. The O-Line and play-calling being the worst offenders. With Allen being on the back foot so much, where were changes in scheme and personnel, to try and give him some time?

 

I also have to say that that was probably the worst officiated game I've seen since we had the 'replacement' refs. At least they were bad but even handedly bad.

 

I'm not an actual subsriber to the 'vegas paid refs' notions, but if ever there was a game where you could say 'the fix is in', that was it. Eventually, the broadcast pretty much gave up trying to match an offense to the offender, as most of the time when they tried to show whoever was supposed to be up to no good, it obviously wasn't them.

 

Mind you, they might have struggled to show Trubisky, as I don't think he was even in the same State.

 

The majority of the penalties the Bills got, are very likely to be correct by rule. My issue with the Zebras, is that they weren't calling the same stuff on the Jags.