Draft Prospects

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

As they were the prior season…..while missing a handful of their best players to injury. It’s not like they went from the a bottom 10 team to top 10.  The Steelers are what they were last year, but with a good RB and no time to throw deep

Steelers don't make the playoffs with James Conner and Benny Snell running the ball this year. They also lost Smith-Schuster from last year.

 

I'm fine with an rb in the first, especially with where we will be picking. But that player needs to make the others around him better. That's what Harris does.

[BrainwashedBillsFan]

We need some roads graters on the Oline to set the tone. Remember when the Cowboys some years back drafted a bunch of Oline with their first few picks. That line became the best in football for several years. I wouldn’t be opposed to it. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BrainwashedBillsFan said:

We need some roads graters on the Oline to set the tone. Remember when the Cowboys some years back drafted a bunch of Oline with their first few picks. That line became the best in football for several years. I wouldn’t be opposed to it. 

 

It wasn't all in one draft. They spent 3 out of 4 first rounders on OL.

 

2011 - Left Tackle - Tyron Smith - ELITE

2013 - Center - Travis Fredrick - ELITE

2014 - Guard - Zack Martin - ELITE

[BrainwashedBillsFan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It wasn't all in one draft. They spent 3 out of 4 first rounders on OL.

 

2011 - Left Tackle - Tyron Smith - ELITE

2013 - Center - Travis Fredrick - ELITE

2014 - Guard - Zack Martin - ELITE

Thanks for clarifying. Let’s do that tho

[GunnerBill]

So I have started to get a handle on this class and here are some initial thoughts:

 

1. Where are the stars? 

This might be the weakest draft at the top since 2013. Obviously the Quarterback class has been a topic of discussion and there are no elite level prospects here. Could we see a 2013 like first round where only one, very desperate, franchise (for the Bills in 2013 see the Panthers or Washington now) reaches for a guy in the first? Maybe not but I do not think you are going to have 4 or 5 Quarterbacks in the first like the past couple of drafts. And it isn't just Quarterback. While this is a good edge group and a good offensive line group and a decent secondary group... those real stand out premium players are not there. There is normally a tier of 7 or 8 guys at the top of each draft who are the established premium prospects. In this class that might be 3 or 4. 

 

2. Expect the unexpected in the top 10

Because the draft is weaker at the top end and because the top ten has two teams picking twice (Giants and Jets) I think it is less predictable than any top 10 in years. As we stand here right now I am going to guarantee Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are top 10 picks. Who fills the other 8 spots is up for grabs. Remember in 2013 the Dolphins traded right up to #3 to take Dion Jordan who not everyone had as a first round player. That kind of crazy trade up and reach might be in play this year too. Equally the Giants and Jets might feel that with a weaker top 10 they can reach for need a bit more at their picks than in other years with at least one of their selections. You might get a really scheme specific type guy going earlier than most expect. 

 

3. Build through the trenches

The offensive tackle group is not as top heavy as the 2020 class that produced Wirfs, Thomas, Wills and Becton as early day 1 guys but there are some good prospects there and I expect 5 or 6 to go in the first round. Equally there are a glut of pass rushers who would normally be late day 1 / early day 2 guys who will get pushed up due to the lack of elite players in the class. 

 

4. Day 2 is going to be chaotic

I expect less trad activity in round one than we have seen in some recent drafts as teams stand pat and let the rather uninspiring board come to them. But day 2 is a spot with plenty of depth in the "scheme specific" category of guys. I think you can expect a lot of jostling and trading as teams try to get in position to take people who can bring a specific skillset to their football team. 

 

5. The bumper covid depth doesn't really exist

There was lots of speculation last year that 2022 would be a super deep draft because of kids taking advantage of the extra year of eligibility to stay in school last year. From my early work I am not sure that is really borne out in the class. It is a pretty average depth class. There are probably more day 2 or day 3 type guys than some year but they will be pushed up somewhat by the lack of those top end of the first style studs. So I'm not sure this is class like say 2020 where you could (in certain positions) get day 2 talents in the first couple of rounds of day 3. There will always be some that slip through the cracks.... but teams who banked on this draft being transformational - looking at your Philadelphia - might be sorely disappointed. 

[BarleyNY]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So I have started to get a handle on this class and here are some initial thoughts:

 

1. Where are the stars? 

This might be the weakest draft at the top since 2013. Obviously the Quarterback class has been a topic of discussion and there are no elite level prospects here. Could we see a 2013 like first round where only one, very desperate, franchise (for the Bills in 2013 see the Panthers or Washington now) reaches for a guy in the first? Maybe not but I do not think you are going to have 4 or 5 Quarterbacks in the first like the past couple of drafts. And it isn't just Quarterback. While this is a good edge group and a good offensive line group and a decent secondary group... those real stand out premium players are not there. There is normally a tier of 7 or 8 guys at the top of each draft who are the established premium prospects. In this class that might be 3 or 4. 

 

2. Expect the unexpected in the top 10

Because the draft is weaker at the top end and because the top ten has two teams picking twice (Giants and Jets) I think it is less predictable than any top 10 in years. As we stand here right now I am going to guarantee Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are top 10 picks. Who fills the other 8 spots is up for grabs. Remember in 2013 the Dolphins traded right up to #3 to take Dion Jordan who not everyone had as a first round player. That kind of crazy trade up and reach might be in play this year too. Equally the Giants and Jets might feel that with a weaker top 10 they can reach for need a bit more at their picks than in other years with at least one of their selections. You might get a really scheme specific type guy going earlier than most expect. 

 

3. Build through the trenches

The offensive tackle group is not as top heavy as the 2020 class that produced Wirfs, Thomas, Wills and Becton as early day 1 guys but there are some good prospects there and I expect 5 or 6 to go in the first round. Equally there are a glut of pass rushers who would normally be late day 1 / early day 2 guys who will get pushed up due to the lack of elite players in the class. 

 

4. Day 2 is going to be chaotic

I expect less trad activity in round one than we have seen in some recent drafts as teams stand pat and let the rather uninspiring board come to them. But day 2 is a spot with plenty of depth in the "scheme specific" category of guys. I think you can expect a lot of jostling and trading as teams try to get in position to take people who can bring a specific skillset to their football team. 

 

5. The bumper covid depth doesn't really exist

There was lots of speculation last year that 2022 would be a super deep draft because of kids taking advantage of the extra year of eligibility to stay in school last year. From my early work I am not sure that is really borne out in the class. It is a pretty average depth class. There are probably more day 2 or day 3 type guys than some year but they will be pushed up somewhat by the lack of those top end of the first style studs. So I'm not sure this is class like say 2020 where you could (in certain positions) get day 2 talents in the first couple of rounds of day 3. There will always be some that slip through the cracks.... but teams who banked on this draft being transformational - looking at your Philadelphia - might be sorely disappointed. 

Yup. I expect a lot of emphasis on high value positions like Edge, CB and WR early.  If there is not a stud sitting there, then teams will tho for good players at a premium positions.  Some QBs will go due to need too.  If it were a better IDL class then they’d be included above.  Needy teams will have to reach.  It’s going to be a rough FA period if you need one - and most teams do. 

 

For the Bills, day 1 might be a good time to trade back.  There will be a QB or two sitting there at the end of round 1 and some team will want the 5th year option.  

[Bill from NYC]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

2. Expect the unexpected in the top 10

Because the draft is weaker at the top end and because the top ten has two teams picking twice (Giants and Jets) I think it is less predictable than any top 10 in years. As we stand here right now I am going to guarantee Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are top 10 picks. Who fills the other 8 spots is up for grabs. 

Did you forget about Evan Neal? He might even go at #1 imo.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Did you forget about Evan Neal? He might even go at #1 imo.

 

No I didn't forget him. He might go number 1. He probably will go top 10. But he is far from guaranteed to be the first tackle off the board. There will be teams for whom his lateral movement is a concern. 

29 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yup. I expect a lot of emphasis on high value positions like Edge, CB and WR early.  If there is not a stud sitting there, then teams will tho for good players at a premium positions.  Some QBs will go due to need too.  If it were a better IDL class then they’d be included above.  Needy teams will have to reach.  It’s going to be a rough FA period if you need one - and most teams do. 

 

For the Bills, day 1 might be a good time to trade back.  There will be a QB or two sitting there at the end of round 1 and some team will want the 5th year option.  

 

Think this is fair. If I was Washington or Carolina I'd be far more willing to pick one of these QBs trading up from early round 2 to end of round 1 than I would to spend a top 10 pick on them. But like you say, desperate teams reach. 

[Solomon Grundy]

@GunnerBill, what do you think about the depth of talent at the guard/center positions?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@GunnerBill, what do you think about the depth of talent at the guard/center positions?

 

Not got into the depth as in beyond the likely day 1 and 2 guys but from a first look I think not as good as the tackle depth would be my instinct. There are some tackles who you could draft and shift inside to guard potentially. 

[Solomon Grundy]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not got into the depth as in beyond the likely day 1 and 2 guys but from a first look I think not as good as the tackle depth would be my instinct. There are some tackles who you could draft and shift inside to guard potentially. 

With this being said, this is how I wish the Bills pick in this years draft. In order, Breece Hall (RB), Travis Jones (DT), George Pickens/John Metchie (WR). This is pre-combine. Need to see timed speed for some. I like what Motor is doing, but I still think the Bills need that dynamic RB to compliment Josh. Jones is that run stuffing DT needed to add. Pickens is THAT GUY!! The throw it up and I’ll catch it guy. Opposite Diggs will help create some serious matchup problems. His timed speed will be the deciding factor. If bad, then Metchie. Also, Metchie is from Brampton 😎

[Bill from NYC]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I didn't forget him. He might go number 1. He probably will go top 10. But he is far from guaranteed to be the first tackle off the board. There will be teams for whom his lateral movement is a concern. 

 

Steve Serby of the NY Post predicted that he goes to Jax at #1. I agree because his potential is sky high. He coiuld possibly turn out to be a RT of Erik Williams proportions (best that I ever have ever seen) or Orlando Pace at LT (also the best I have ever seen). 

When the draft comes closer, I will rate all of the Alabama draft eligible players. That said, I cannot begin to imagine how Jax could pass up on an opportunity to have this kid protect Trevor Lawrence. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Steve Serby of the NY Post predicted that he goes to Jax at #1. I agree because huis potential is sky high. He coiuld possibly turn out to be a RT of Erik Williams (best that I ever saw) or Orlando Pace at RT (also the best I ever saw). 

When the draft comes nearer, I will rate all of the Alabama draft eligible players. That said, I cannot begin to imagine how Jax could pass up on an opportunity to have this kid protect Trevor Lawrence. 

I love the guy as a prospect but he doesn't move anywhere near well enough laterally to be in the Orlando conversation. His straight  line explosion though does belong in the Erik Wiliams mold for sure👍

[JaCrispy]

Speed, speed, and more speed on the offensive side of the ball...can never have enough...

[Bill from NYC]

24 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I love the guy as a prospect but he doesn't move anywhere near well enough laterally to be in the Orlando conversation. His straight  line explosion though does belong in the Erik Wiliams mold for sure👍

As I said, I will be more descriptive of Neal and other Crimson Tide players as we get closer to the draft.

[Brand J]

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Speed, speed, and more speed on the offensive side of the ball...can never have enough...

I want more speed on the defensive side of the ball too, particularly in the front 7. Micah Parsons ran an ungodly 4.36 and has the instincts to boot, so he plays that fast. Sadly a player that dynamic won’t be around at #32. But a heat seeking missle at LB, a speed DE, or a big ugly disruptor like Jordan Davis is what I want. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I love the guy as a prospect but he doesn't move anywhere near well enough laterally to be in the Orlando conversation. His straight  line explosion though does belong in the Erik Wiliams mold for sure👍

 

I agree totally with this. But for me it makes him much more of a RT prospect at the NFL level than a LT. I think he needs to play RT and in a power offense. Remains to be seen who the Jags hire to know how much of a fit that is.... but is an NFL team drafting a right tackle 1st overall? I wouldn't. 

 

I don't think he is the best tackle in the draft personally.

[Bill from NYC]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I didn't forget him. He might go number 1. He probably will go top 10. But he is far from guaranteed to be the first tackle off the board. There will be teams for whom his lateral movement is a concern. 

 

Just saw this on NFL.com, and I must admit that it was poorly written and obviously not edited. The writer claims that Neal will go first, but he does not list him as his favorite OT. Btw, do you know much about the OT from Northern Iowa?

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs

 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[Solomon Grundy]

21 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Just saw this on NFL.com, and I must admit that it was poorly written and obviously not edited. The writer claims that Neal will go first, but he does not list him as his favorite OT. Btw, do you know much about the OT from Northern Iowa?

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs

 

 

He’s bad ass!!

[Bill from NYC]

39 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He’s bad ass!!

I only saw a little bit of you tube video on him but he looks really strong and pretty quick. It seems as if he played RG before moving to LT, and he looks like he could be a GREAT guard. 

This of course is NOT to say that he woudn't be a good tackle!

Edited January 22, 2022 by Bill from NYC