Josh Allen vs. Mahomes: Last 32 regular season starts

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

I can’t guarantee it but Im trying to be as objective as possible here haha but imo Allen has been significantly better than mahomes this season. I don’t think mahomes is injured I think it’s more the book of how to slow him down has been written and we’re waiting to see him adapt to it. So it isn’t necessarily permanent but right now I’m taking Allen 

Edited November 6, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I basically agree but Cunningham's not in the Hall of Fame

I stand corrected. He was nominated this year, but has not yet been inducted. 

I was actually quite surprised by this. I thought he was a Hall of Famer for sure.

Thanks.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Watching Mahomes the last few weeks, I've begum to wonder whether he hasn't plateaued somewhere below his star years.   He might have flashed early and now has settled in.   Can he move on from where he's been to wily veteran?   Can you see him playing at a sustained level like a Rodgers?   I think Allen has a better shot at being the equivalent of Rodgers - one of the very best ever to play the position.  

 

That Mahomes has reached his ceiling and plateaued shouldn't be too surprising. His career arch might end up looking very much like Dan Marino's. Only question might be can Mahomes win a handful of rings. Mahomes 2018 season was one for the ages. Marino only put up one season like that in his career, Peyton two, with 9n years and two teams between such seasons. And it looks like Brady might be putting together his second such season which will be 14 years and two teams between such seasons. We are talking about 15-20 year careers for these QB's and they've only done it once or twice. It won't be a surprise at all if Mahomes never puts up another season like his '18 season again.

 

I'm not sure we will ever see another player with the sustained efficiency of Aaron Rodgers. But even with all his greatness as a QB, Rodgers only has one ring and one super bowl appearance to show for it. So much more goes into winning it all. 

[Success]

There is no way I'd trade Mahomes for Allen right now.

 

Mahomes is incredibly fun to watch - but he still does all of that hero-ball, Globetrotters stuff. He's not disciplined.

 

Allen is progressing away from that every year.  The trajectory with Allen is more of a diagonal line upward - Mahomes is the same QB he's been for 3 years now.

 

I think Allen is going to have a better overall career, and be looked upon as the better QB when all is said & done.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 minutes ago, Logic said:

The very next week, I would argue that the Bills defense was the reason they won the game against the Ravens. Nevertheless, because Josh Allen was starting at quarterback for the Bills, he still gets that nice, big capitol "W" next to his name. (If you don't like the Ravens example, you can pick a different game where the defense was the prime reason for the win, or the great pass protection, or a superlative run by a running back, or punt returned for the deciding score, etc, etc.)

 

Or Allen get's the W because he outplayed his counter part on the other side of the field. When they got into the red zone Allen didn't make the critical mistake. Settled for FG's but still got the points. When Lamar got in the red zone he made a critical error that cost his team not just 4 points as an incompletion would have but 14 with a pick six. Both QB's played in the same elements and I'd say both QB's played pretty comparable defenses. The narrative can always be spun multiple ways. 

 

QB Wins is definitely an imperfect stat at best if it even is one. 

Edited November 6, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Buffalo716]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

I stand corrected. He was nominated this year, but has not yet been inducted. 

I was actually quite surprised by this. I thought he was a Hall of Famer for sure.

Thanks.

McNair isn't either but I understand your point they were great QBs

[NewEra]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I basically agree but Cunningham's not in the Hall of Fame

Either is McNair 

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Either is McNair 

I also said that my next post

[PonyBoy]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

A.) Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams


B.) Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair


Group A has won six Lombardi trophies and features zero Hall of Famers.

Group B has won zero Lombardi trophies and features seven Hall of Famers.


Quarterback wins are not a thing.

 

*2X SB winner hipster doofus Eli Manning who isn't a freckle on his his brother Peyton's heinie should be added to list (A) * because he won 2 IMAO!

[Southern_Bills]

Can we just agree both are good QBs? 

 

Allen in KC would seem wierd and I'm not 100% sure it would work.

 

I feel the same way about Mahomes in Buffalo. 

 

Both are top QBs for their team, doesn't really matter who is "statistically" ahead for a game or two.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

That's just it. You've captured my problem with the notion of "QB wins" with this exact question.

I would agree with you that Allen WAS the reason they won that game. So let's say we assign him a nice, tidy, capitol "W" for that one.

The very next week, I would argue that the Bills defense was the reason they won the game against the Ravens. Nevertheless, because Josh Allen was starting at quarterback for the Bills, he still gets that nice, big capitol "W" next to his name. (If you don't like the Ravens example, you can pick a different game where the defense was the prime reason for the win, or the great pass protection, or a superlative run by a running back, or punt returned for the deciding score, etc, etc.)

The "W" that goes next to the quarterback's name in each instance is exactly the same. It ignores the context, the nuance, the vastly different variables that lead to the "W".  It ignores the multiple takeaways that the defense collected, or the great field position that the return game provided, or the toe-tapping catch by a wide receiver on a crucial third down that lead to the winning score. THAT'S exactly the problem I have with the notion of quarterback wins. 

And, I suppose, I would again ask: Why is quarterback the only position in football to which we "assign" wins? Surely Tre'Davious White has played a big hand in lots of big Bills wins. Why don't we track cornerback wins? Bruce Smith swung plenty of games the Bills' way during his career, but we don't talk about Edge Rusher wins. 

We could go back and forth on this all day, but because of the highly nuanced nature of a team game like football -- where all 11 players have to do their job on each play, and where even a highlight reel quarterback play is aided by great pass protection by five different men and a great catch by yet another man -- I stand by my believe that assigning wins to any given player or position is fruitless.

Now, @Shaw66's notion of 4th quarter comebacks or come-from-behind wins correlating more directly with a quarterback's effectiveness gets closer to the truth, but even that causes me some trepidation. Again, what kind of pass protection is the quarterback getting? Who is calling his plays? Are his receivers catching the passes being thrown their way? Was the winning touchdown catch a well-thrown ball, or should the credit really go to the receiver who had to lay out for a fingertip grab? It's a nuanced discussion.

A lot to divulge there. 

 

I asked you previously how you felt about pitchers and goalies getting wins that you didn't answer. I don't mind, just bring it up again because I feel like that's the reason why they are given wins and loses. 

 

Those players aren't always going to play their best but they are the ones most responsible for how your team performs.

 

I completely understand where you are coming from with the "wins mean nothing" stance because it does differ from game to game.  At the same time, I don't really think it is a "stat" of a qb as much as it is a "metric" for the analytics people.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2021 by The Wiz

[mykidsdad]

3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

Passer rating is only part of the equation. Josh has more rushing yards and rushing tds. He is just better right now. Give Josh Hill and a healthy Kelsey on this team, and there would be zero doubt. Mahomes is amazing, but like a normal person kind of awesome. Josh has freakish size and strength. He is otherworldly. You will see the light soon. The next several years should crystallize this for the skeptics.

[LABILLBACKER]

Mahomes will never duplicate what he did his rookie year. Yes he's ridiculously talented and has a ring but I think Josh will have a much more productive career than State Farm.  When Kelce slows down so will Mahomes. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

Mahomes is not better than Allen right now.  He’s had a better career so far but if we are talking purely this year….its Allen.

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

Dude! Go away. I’m sure there’s fan forums for the Pats*

[Doc]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

You get 23 games for each and 105.8 rating for Josh and 103.3 rating for Mahomes. 

 

I looked into this just for fun. I am happily surprised to see that we can go all the way back to the middle of the 2019 season well before Josh became an elite QB and we still get Josh having a slight edge in passer rating over Mahomes. 

 

That said this is not some sort of confirmation on so and so QB is definitely the best. But it certainly shows there is a case to be made for Allen in the discussion and that is certainly what Greg Cosell sees now. But strictly passer rating wise Rodgers is well above everyone in the league over the last 32 starts around 107 and Wilson is above Mahomes and Allen as well around 105.

 

Forget passer rating/QBR since they're jokes.  I'm talking about total yards, TDs and turnovers, and completion percentage.

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Dude! Go away. I’m sure there’s fan forums for the Pats*

 

Here's a link to one:

 

https://buczone.com/forum/

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Mahomes will never duplicate what he did his rookie year. Yes he's ridiculously talented and has a ring but I think Josh will have a much more productive career than State Farm.  When Kelce slows down so will Mahomes. 

 

His rookie year he started 1 game...

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Forget passer rating/QBR since they're jokes.  I'm talking about total yards, TDs and turnovers, and completion percentage.

 

They're not jokes. They are just one of many ways to quantify a QB's success or lack of. Same as TD's, total yards, turnovers and completion percentage. Of the four you mentioned I believe Mahomes leads in all four of them over Allen unless we throw in rushing/receiving TD's. Of course, turnovers is one you don't want to lead in. 

 

We can look at the individual metrics by themselves but I don't see how that makes the comparison any more or less clear.

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His rookie year he started 1 game...

 

I believe the poster is still correct.🤪

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

One of the takeaways I come away with from their passer rating being identical through 32 starts is how foolish most of the media and other fan bases sound when they declare that Allen was terrible is first two years. Yet this 32 game stretch has a significant chunk of games from his 2019 season, half the season in fact. So a quarter of the games from the 32 game sample are from a time when Josh Allen was terrible according to most of the media and many from other fanbases.