Josh Allen vs. Mahomes: Last 32 regular season starts

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Off the heels of Greg Cosell expanding on his "Josh Allen is the most physically gifted QB" opinion to "Josh Allen might be the best QB in the NFL" I thought I would go back and see how Allen and Mahomes, the QB that has been universally been viewed as the best QB since the 2018 season, compare over X amount of games. I eventually got to the last 32 regular season starts for both Allen and Mahomes. A nice number since this represents two traditional full seasons of games for each player. 

 

And oddly enough the two are tied exactly at 102.3 passer rating over there last 32 starts. 

 

Mahomes last 32 starts

 

Allen last 32 starts

 

And actually if you go back 34 games for each player Allen just squeaks out a better passer rating of 101.9 to Mahomes 101.3

 

Beyond 34 games Mahomes over takes Allen and doesn't relinquish the lead. You get into the early part of the 2019 season where Mahomes started on fire in September and Allen had maybe his worst game of his career against the Patriots in that same month. 

 

Mahomes big dip to start the season this year certainly has helped Allen to catch Mahomes in the last 34 games. But Allen also had his own struggles early in this season in the first two games.  And as Bills fans watching the games we've also seen many missed opportunities in the red zone where the Bills have not fully been clicking yet on offense despite the Bills leading the league in scoring. 

 

I'd expect these two to pretty much be neck and neck in passer rating going forward for their careers. 

[PatsFanNH]

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 2 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

Edited November 6, 2021 by PatsFanNH

[Buffalo03]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

You mean 2 Super Bowls? The other was an AFC Championship game

[Buffalo Barbarian]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Off the heels of Greg Cosell expanding on his "Josh Allen is the most physically gifted QB" opinion to "Josh Allen might be the best QB in the NFL" I thought I would go back and see how Allen and Mahomes, the QB that has been universally been viewed as the best QB since the 2018 season, compare over X amount of games. I eventually got to the last 32 regular season starts for both Allen and Mahomes. A nice number since this represents two traditional full seasons of games for each player. 

 

And oddly enough the two are tied exactly at 102.3 passer rating over there last 32 starts. 

 

Mahomes last 32 starts

 

Allen last 32 starts

 

And actually if you go back 34 games for each player Allen just squeaks out a better passer rating of 101.9 to Mahomes 101.3

 

Beyond 34 games Mahomes over takes Allen and doesn't relinquish the lead. You get into the early part of the 2019 season where Mahomes started on fire in September and Allen had maybe his worst game of his career against the Patriots in that same month. 

 

Mahomes big dip to start the season this year certainly has helped Allen to catch Mahomes in the last 34 games. But Allen also had his own struggles early in this season in the first two games.  And as Bills fans watching the games we've also seen many missed opportunities in the red zone where the Bills have not fully been clicking yet on offense despite the Bills leading the league in scoring. 

 

I'd expect these two to pretty much be neck and neck in passer rating going forward for their careers. 

 

Josh going up , pat going down  

19 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

 

I bet that teams figured out their RPO game and now he doesn't have all those easy throws. You can hes frustrated and it has nothing to do with injury, hes still throwing the ball and moving like hes always has.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2021 by Buffalo Barbarian

[Doc]

Compare the last 2 seasons.  That is, after Josh ascended to elite status.  Josh is the better QB.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

Compare the last 2 seasons.  That is, after Josh ascended to elite status.  Josh is the better QB.

 

You get 23 games for each and 105.8 rating for Josh and 103.3 rating for Mahomes. 

 

I looked into this just for fun. I am happily surprised to see that we can go all the way back to the middle of the 2019 season well before Josh became an elite QB and we still get Josh having a slight edge in passer rating over Mahomes. 

 

That said this is not some sort of confirmation on so and so QB is definitely the best. But it certainly shows there is a case to be made for Allen in the discussion and that is certainly what Greg Cosell sees now. But strictly passer rating wise Rodgers is well above everyone in the league over the last 32 starts around 107 and Wilson is above Mahomes and Allen as well around 105.

36 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

 

Read this and was confused. I read the post first before the username. LOL.

[Einstein]

56 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

 

Are you ok?

[Logic]

58 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

Note: "Quarterback wins" are not a thing. 

If you don't believe me, ask Dan Marino and Trent Dilfer.
 

[The Wiz]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

Note: "Quarterback wins" are not a thing. 

If you don't believe me, ask Dan Marino and Trent Dilfer.
 

They should really get rid of that W column in every single website that has every single qbs stats then. 

[Logic]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

They should really get rid of that W column in every single website that has every single qbs stats then. 

A.) Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams


B.) Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair


Group A has won six Lombardi trophies and features zero Hall of Famers.

Group B has won zero Lombardi trophies and features seven Hall of Famers.


Quarterback wins are not a thing.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

A.) Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams


B.) Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair


Group A has won six Lombardi trophies and features zero Hall of Famers.

Group B has won zero Lombardi trophies and features seven Hall of Famers.


Quarterback wins are not a thing.

Actually you just proved that they are. 

 

Not winning a superbowl doesn't make any of them less of a player. 

 

And group A winning a superbowl doesn't make them a greater player. 

 

The entirety of their career is the difference between the two groups.   Whether they have a championship or not, group B is vastly better because they won a lot.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

A.) Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams


B.) Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair


Group A has won six Lombardi trophies and features zero Hall of Famers.

Group B has won zero Lombardi trophies and features seven Hall of Famers.


Quarterback wins are not a thing.

Well according to @GunnerBill, Group A are a bunch of “winners”, where group B are straight up “losers”!

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Whether they have a championship or not, group B is vastly better because they won a lot.

Agreed, unfortunately their still losers - right Gunner

[TH3]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

I mean….what are we even talking about…McCorkle gonna be goat2 right?

 

Gotta love the radio boys up here in NE….they got the Pats in the AFCCG already🤪

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Dude! Mahomes led his team to 3 SB in 3 years and the other year they went to the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game!  (Only playoff losses came to Brady led teams) Yes Mahomes is having a down year but I bet it’s an injury that no one knows about.. Mahomes > Allen right now.. that can change but not for at least another year and Mahomes struggling again. 

🤡 

 

“right now”……this season allen is the better qb…..there is no debate.  
 

Mahomes is the more accomplished QB and has had the better career to date. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.  But right now…..allen > Mahomes.  

[Logic]

19 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Actually you just proved that they are. 

 

Not winning a superbowl doesn't make any of them less of a player. 

 

And group A winning a superbowl doesn't make them a greater player. 

 

The entirety of their career is the difference between the two groups.   Whether they have a championship or not, group B is vastly better because they won a lot.

You can make stats say whatever you want them to — which is what you’re doing here.

 

You mention that Group B “won a lot”. But Group B is also vastly superior statistically and in terms of collective quarterback rating.

 

The amount of variables that go into winning football games make “quarterback wins” a ridiculous thing to measure. 
 

Why not measure offensive guard wins? Punter wins? 
 

Ridiculous.

 

You can compare players at a given position by comparing their statistical production and, in the case of quarterbacks, by QB rating and QBR. Comparing them by wins is silly, because it ignores scores of variables that are outside their control and affect the likelihood of wins and losses.

 

QB wins are not a thing.

[The Wiz]

16 minutes ago, Logic said:

You can make stats say whatever you want them to — which is what you’re doing here.

 

You mention that Group B “won a lot”. But Group B is also vastly superior statistically and in terms of collective quarterback rating.

 

The amount of variables that go into winning football games make “quarterback wins” a ridiculous thing to measure. 
 

Why not measure offensive guard wins? Punter wins? 
 

Ridiculous.

 

You can compare players at a given position by comparing their statistical production and, in the case of quarterbacks, by QB rating and QBR. Comparing them by wins is silly, because it ignores scores of variables that are outside their control and affect the likelihood of wins and losses.

 

QB wins are not a thing.

So do you not believe in pitcher wins and goalie wins also?  Just curious.

 

And yes, the amount of variables that go into winning games is a ridiculous thing to measure but when you see a game like Allen vs the Colts in the playoffs how can you not say that he was the reason they won that game?

 

Edited November 6, 2021 by The Wiz

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

You can make stats say whatever you want them to — which is what you’re doing here.

 

You mention that Group B “won a lot”. But Group B is also vastly superior statistically and in terms of collective quarterback rating.

 

The amount of variables that go into winning football games make “quarterback wins” a ridiculous thing to measure. 
 

Why not measure offensive guard wins? Punter wins? 
 

Ridiculous.

 

You can compare players at a given position by comparing their statistical production and, in the case of quarterbacks, by QB rating and QBR. Comparing them by wins is silly, because it ignores scores of variables that are outside their control and affect the likelihood of wins and losses.

 

QB wins are not a thing.

Thanks.   That's well said. 

 

However, where I think you WILL start to see some correlation is when the category changes from wins to fourth quarter come-from behind wins and stats like that.  I would guess that cream rises a little better in that category.  QBs who win a lot in the fourth quarter tend to keep their jobs.  I haven't looked, but I'd guess that Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams don't rank high on that list.  

 

Whatever, I agree that in a QB-QB comparison like this, wins really aren't relevant.  Over the 32 games, I'd say Mahomes has had the better OC and probably the better talent.  

 

On the subject in general, I wouldn't have guessed that Allen was Mahomes's equal over that period.   That's quite cool.  Plus, there's rushing yards and the running threat he presents.  

 

Watching Mahomes the last few weeks, I've begum to wonder whether he hasn't plateaued somewhere below his star years.   He might have flashed early and now has settled in.   Can he move on from where he's been to wily veteran?   Can you see him playing at a sustained level like a Rodgers?   I think Allen has a better shot at being the equivalent of Rodgers - one of the very best ever to play the position.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Well according to @GunnerBill, Group A are a bunch of “winners”, where group B are straight up “losers”!

Agreed, unfortunately their still losers - right Gunner

 

Group A are winners. That isn't an opinion it is a fact. I don't call everyone who isn't a winner a loser but if you want to take that diametrically opposed position one could call them that. You can't say to guys who won a Superbowl "you are not winners". They are. Doesn't make them the best Quarterbacks. But they are winners.   

[Logic]

29 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

So do you not believe in pitcher wins and goalie wins also?  Just curious.

 

And yes, the amount of variables that go into winning games is a ridiculous thing to measure but when you see a game like Allen vs the Colts in the playoffs how can you not say that he was the reason they won that game?

 

That's just it. You've captured my problem with the notion of "QB wins" with this exact question.

I would agree with you that Allen WAS the reason they won that game. So let's say we assign him a nice, tidy, capitol "W" for that one.

The very next week, I would argue that the Bills defense was the reason they won the game against the Ravens. Nevertheless, because Josh Allen was starting at quarterback for the Bills, he still gets that nice, big capitol "W" next to his name. (If you don't like the Ravens example, you can pick a different game where the defense was the prime reason for the win, or the great pass protection, or a superlative run by a running back, or punt returned for the deciding score, etc, etc.)

The "W" that goes next to the quarterback's name in each instance is exactly the same. It ignores the context, the nuance, the vastly different variables that lead to the "W".  It ignores the multiple takeaways that the defense collected, or the great field position that the return game provided, or the toe-tapping catch by a wide receiver on a crucial third down that lead to the winning score. THAT'S exactly the problem I have with the notion of quarterback wins. 

And, I suppose, I would again ask: Why is quarterback the only position in football to which we "assign" wins? Surely Tre'Davious White has played a big hand in lots of big Bills wins. Why don't we track cornerback wins? Bruce Smith swung plenty of games the Bills' way during his career, but we don't talk about Edge Rusher wins. 

We could go back and forth on this all day, but because of the highly nuanced nature of a team game like football -- where all 11 players have to do their job on each play, and where even a highlight reel quarterback play is aided by great pass protection by five different men and a great catch by yet another man -- I stand by my believe that assigning wins to any given player or position is fruitless.

Now, @Shaw66's notion of 4th quarter comebacks or come-from-behind wins correlating more directly with a quarterback's effectiveness gets closer to the truth, but even that causes me some trepidation. Again, what kind of pass protection is the quarterback getting? Who is calling his plays? Are his receivers catching the passes being thrown their way? Was the winning touchdown catch a well-thrown ball, or should the credit really go to the receiver who had to lay out for a fingertip grab? It's a nuanced discussion.

Edited November 6, 2021 by Logic

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

A.) Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams


B.) Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair


Group A has won six Lombardi trophies and features zero Hall of Famers.

Group B has won zero Lombardi trophies and features seven Hall of Famers.


Quarterback wins are not a thing.

I basically agree but Cunningham's not in the Hall of Fame