Scouting The Jacksonville Jaguars (***On Hold for the Next 3 Weeks***)

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Great to get back on track with a win and finally wash away that tough loss to the Titans! We also got a reminder that division games are tough and winning in the NFL is hard, but good teams need to go through and overcome these types of close games as Cole Beasley said to reporters post-game. 

 

Looking ahead, the Bills are off to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The status of Jacksonville's best player on offense, James Robinson, is up in the air this week after he exited the game against Seattle with a heel injury. DJ Chark (their ideal #1 WR) and Travis Etienne are both on IR. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into Jacksonville's last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2021 

 

Sunday October 10th- Week 5 Home Loss vs. Tennessee (the Titans (current record: 6-2) have the 13th ranked offense, 22nd ranked defense, and 19th ranked special teams) by a score of 37-19:

 

Trevor Lawrence (23/33 for 273 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT with 28 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD)- Impressed me with his play despite the scoreline and the Jags record so far. Lawrence does a good job of navigating the pocket for a rookie and extending plays with his legs. There were multiple plays where a different QB would have tucked the ball and run whereas Lawrence kept his eyes downfield and looked for the better/smarter play. He has a huge arm, great size (6'6") and mobility, and a limitless ceiling, but his supporting cast are really letting him down (in so many ways, his season parallels Josh Allen's rookie year). Threw a beautiful fade to the back corner of the end zone that Jacob Hollister hauled in for a TD and then followed it up with a QB keeper for a TD in the second half. Lawrence threw a pick on the last play of the game on a desperation throw into the end zone. The offensive line gave a decent performance in pass protection, conceding 2 sacks (both by Harold Landry) on the day.

 

Jags Running Game- Second-year RB James Robinson (149 yards, 8.3 YPC, and 1 TD) started strong, breaking off a 60+ yard run off the left side and up the sideline, finally getting caught by Kevin Byard inside the ten yard line. He then punched it in for a TD a couple plays later. Robinson's one of the most underrated backs in the league and doesn't get the credit he deserves on a bad team, but his balance, vision, and toughness allow him to break tackles and keep the chains moving. The draft darling out of Illinois State remains the most essential part of their current offense. Carlos Hyde (13 yards and 2.6 YPC) is the primary back up and his only real contribution was getting stuffed on 4th-and-goal late in the game. This is one to watch as Hyde could be Jacksonville's #1 guy on Sunday with Robinson's injury. 

 

Marvin Jones (1 catch for 25 yards)- their top option with Chark out. Made an outstanding catch early on, high-pointing the ball and tapping both feet inbounds, but didn't play a huge role in this game. 

 

Laviska Shenault (1 catch for 58 yards)- was kept off the stat sheet by the Titans until the fourth quarter when he caught a short pass and then broke at least four tackles on the play for a huge gain down into the red zone.

 

Tavon Austin (5 catches for 54 yards) and Jamal Agnew (6 catches for 41 yards)- Austin is getting a new lease of life as the Jaguars slot WR. Still has top end speed and he looks slightly more polished as a route runner, but his usage runs very hot and cold. Agnew is a jack of all trades type of player who I thought was underrated in Detroit and he has been a bright spot for Jacksonville in 2021 as their leading WR. 

 

Dan Arnold (6 catches for 64 yards)- Has proven to be one of Lawrence's favorite targets since he was brought over from Carolina in an early in-season trade. His day got off to the worst start imaginable as he fumbled the ball on his first target which was returned for a Titans TD by Kevin Byard (somewhat controversially as he may not have made a football move before the ball came out). Rebounded to make several nice catches and showed off some YAC ability. 

 

Jags Run Defense- Even though Jacksonville really sold out to stop the run (see paragraph below), Derrick Henry (130 yards, 4.5 YPC, and 3 TDs) put on a show in his return to his hometown, plowing into the end zone for all 3 scores from inside the five/ten yard line. He's really difficult to stop in that area of the field as we know and the Jaguars couldn't consistently get the interior pressure a defense needs in order to stop him before he can accelerate. Tennessee also did a good job of testing the sideline-to-sideline range of the Jaguars defense with some well-executed jet sweeps and Tannehill was able to keep the chains moving with his legs. 

 

Jags Pass Defense- Like all defenses, Jacksonville had to cheat to try to limit Derrick Henry, but this allowed Ryan Tannehill (14/22 for 197 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 21 rushing yards) too much time and space to operate. The middle of the field was abandoned and the quick slants were open all day as the LBs bit hard on the Titans play action. Repeatedly, the Jaguars allowed AJ Brown a free release off the line and played with so much cushion that Brown could run for the first down without being touched. Allowed a MyCole Pruitt TD on a busted coverage in the first half. The Jags did make a few splash plays as Jihad Ward did a great job diagnosing and blowing up a screen for a loss which snuffed out a Titans drive in the fourth quarter. Josh Allen, Dawuane Smoot, and K'Lavon Chaisson combined for three sacks as well. 

 

Miscellaneous- Jacksonville was down 7-0 almost immediately with the Byard defensive TD, but despite the early hole they put themselves in, the game felt closer at times than the final score indicated. The Jaguars had more yards, first downs, and plays than Tennessee, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. The Jags new kicker, Matthew Wright, missed his first XP of the contest and then missed a 50+yard attempt as it pinged one off the crossbar (but his redemption was just a week away). Jacksonville averaged 6.9 yards per play (they went 3/10 on third down) and committed 4 penalties for 33 yards. 

 

Sunday October 17th- Week 6 *Home* Win (in London) vs. Miami (the Dolphins (current record: 1-7) have the 26th ranked offense, 25th ranked defense, and 25th ranked special teams) by a score of 23-20:

 

Trevor Lawrence (25/41 for 319 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 11  rushing yards)- Started the game slowly and had a few misfires including a key third down throw batted down at the line by Emmanuel Ogbah, forcing Jacksonville to punt from its own end zone. Bounced back to lead a fantastic two minute drill before HT which he concluded with a perfectly lofted deep ball to Marvin Jones for a TD. Began the second half with a gorgeous throw up the seam to Agnew over the LB and several other passes which led to a goal line TD by Robinson for the lead. Looked quick on a play action bootleg which he carried for 10+ yards (Lawrence has been effective with play action in general). Lawrence did make a rookie mistake, holding onto the ball for too long and not feeling the backside pressure as his former Clemson buddy Christian Wilkins sacked him and forced a fumble that Miami recovered. However, with the game on the line, he matriculated the ball downfield and into FG range for the win. The offensive line allowed two sacks, but one of those was probably Lawrence's fault as described above.

 

Jags Running Game- Robinson (73 yards, 4.3 YPC, and 1 TD with 28 receiving yards) was quiet until the third quarter when he rumbled through all three levels of the Dolphins defense, bouncing off several tackles all the way down to the one yard line and then scored the go ahead TD on the next play. Robinson did get caught by Jerome Baker on a 4th-and-2 play for a turnover on downs, but I put that more on the ineffective blocking of LT Cam Robinson. 

 

Marvin Jones (7 catches for 100 yards and 1 TD)- Took advantage of the absences of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones and roasted an outmatched Noah Igbinoghene all day. Made a few key catches across the middle in heavy traffic, puts his body on the line for the team. Beat Igbinoghene with his quick release and made a leaping grab in the end zone for a TD with only seconds to go in the first half. Jones made a key reception near the right sideline on Jacksonville's game-tying drive at the end of regulation as well. 

 

Laviska Shenault (6 catches for 54 yards)- was targeted a lot more often in this matchup. His hands aren't the most reliable on the team, but he's physical and can be special after the catch. Played a significant role on Jacksonville's scoring drive just before halftime and caught the pivotal third and fourth down passes to set up the winning FG with two seconds left. 

 

Jamal Agnew (5 catches for 78 yards)- Agnew took a short flare route right at the LoS and forced a missed tackle with his speed, gaining 20+ yards after the catch. Agnew is so fun to watch, Frazier will have to try to take Agnew away as he's become Lawrence's go-to guy especially whenever the play breaks down. 

 

Dan Arnold (2 catches for 27 yards)- won a lot of his reps against the Miami linebackers, but wasn't targeted as much as usual and had a significant drop on a third down play. 

 

Jags Run Defense- Forced Miami away from the run (just 77 total yards on 20 carries) and saved their best play for Miami's final drive, stuffing a Dolphins 4th-and-1 carry up the middle by Malcolm Brown. The Jaguars defensive line is strong across the board at winning the LoS and stopping runs before they can get started, they've had a great season outside of facing Derrick Henry. 

 

Jags Pass Defense- The stat sheet shows that the Jaguars allowed Tua Tagovailoa (33/47 for 329 yards, 2 passing TD, and 1 INT with 22 rushing yards) to put together one of his better games, but this was also probably the most impressive performance of this defense's season (not saying a whole lot but still). Jacksonville gave up some points at the start and end of the game, but mostly frustrated Miami's offense. Josh Allen beat Liam Eichenberg around the edge with speed on Miami's first drive and hit Tua's arm on one passing attempt, but the Dolphins still went straight down the field and scored a TD on a quick slant to Jaylen Waddle. The Jaguars settled down after that and were successful in the first half with a bend-but-don't-break approach, forcing Miami to settle for two short field goals in the red zone. Nevin Lawson collected his first ever INT in the second half to set the Jaguars up in Miami territory. Jacksonville wasn't able to sack Tua at all with his quick release, but they came close and hurried him on a number of drop backs. 

 

Miscellaneous- Wright kicked a 54 yard field goal to tie the game late in the fourth that was one of the wildest kicks I've ever seen. The ball swerved outside the right post by several feet and then reversed course, veering back inside the post. Huge moment in the game that was then followed by his 53 yard winner. Jacksonville averaged 6.4 yards per play, went 3/12 on third down, and committed 8 penalties for 54 yards. 

 

Sunday October 31st- Week 8 Away Loss vs. Seattle (the Seahawks (current record: 3-5) have the 7th ranked offense, 21st ranked defense, and 16th ranked special teams) by a score of 31-7:

 

Trevor Lawrence (32/54 for 238 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT with 11 rushing yards)- This just wasn't his day coming off the bye, it was the worst I've seen him perform in 2021. Took another 'rookie-type' sack on the Jaguars first drive, killing a promising start. Just missed some easy throws that he usually makes in his sleep and his ball placement was scattershot. Threw deep in the second quarter, but wasn't on the same page as his WR and Quandre Diggs picked it off easily. Part of Lawrence's poor play coincided with the offensive line's implosion as they allowed almost constant pressure (just one sack, but only Lawrence's size and speed prevented 5-6 more). Lawrence never really appeared to be comfortable in the pocket and his internal clock got shorter and shorter as the day went on. Finally put together a nice scoring drive in the dying moments of the game. 

 

Jags Running Game- Robinson (22 yards and 5.5 YPC) showed off some nice moves early, but hurt his heel on a run out of bounds where he ran into some equipment and left the game at the end of the first quarter. Carlos Hyde (32 yards and 3.6 YPC as well as 6 catches for 40 yards) replaced him and did most of his damage as a receiving option in garbage time. He's not an adequate replacement as a runner though. 

 

Marvin Jones (5 catches for 35 yards)- didn't find enough separation or YAC throughout the game and dropped a ball on a key third down. 

 

Laviska Shenault (2 catches for 13 yards)- Seattle took him away, no real plays worth noting.

 

Jamal Agnew (6 catches for 38 yards and 1 TD)- caught Jacksonville's lone TD in garbage time, was as feisty and elusive as usual whenever they got the ball to him. 

 

Dan Arnold (8 catches for 68 yards)- Lawrence's safety valve. Their best chain mover on the day, did a good job finding space in the middle of the Seahawks defense.

 

Jags Run Defense- Allowed some uncharacteristically easy runs by Alex Collins (44 yards and 4.4 YPC) early on and a Geno Smith QB sneak TD at the goal line (although they stuffed Collins multiple times inside the two yard line prior). They stiffened up as the game went along and Smoot flashed with a key TFL to force a punt. 

 

Jags Pass Defense- If you need any evidence that the Bills should lean on our Josh Allen and the passing game, Geno Smith, GENO SMITH (20-24 for 195 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 0 INTs with 8 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD) managed the game really efficiently, limited his mistakes, and made it all look so easy, dicing this defense up and leading Seattle to an easy blowout win. Smith started the game with a perfect deep ball that dropped right into Tyler Lockett's arms in stride to set up the game's first TD. Shaquill Griffin (a massive FA bust at this point) got mossed by his old teammate DJ Metcalf on another TD pass from Smith and just couldn't get close to any of the Seahawks WRs all day. Allen racked up two sacks that led to Seahawks punts and Smoot chipped in a sack as well.

 

Miscellaneous- If you think the Bills looked rusty off the bye week, Jacksonville looked beyond lethargic coming off their Week 7 bye. Seattle led 17-0 at HT. Travis Homer scored a TD on Jacksonville's onside kick on a play that was very similar to Micah Hyde's TD against Miami last year. Jacksonville averaged 4.2 yards per play, went 5/14 on third down, and committed 12 penalties for 93 yards. 

 

Sunday November 7th Preview- Week 9 Jacksonville (current record: 1-6, the Jaguars have the 24th ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense, and 21st ranked special teams) vs Buffalo (current record: 5-2, the Bills have the 10th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 11th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- Buffalo needs to do a better job on early downs than what they showed against Miami and stay on schedule to get more favorable down and distance situations. Josh Allen should have time to operate as the Jaguars have only sacked the QB 11 times this season so far (30th in the league) and are allowing the 5th most passing yards per game so we should lean pass-heavy in this matchup. Jacksonville's run defense is slightly better than league average in total yards and are conceding 3.7 yards per carry which ranks third best in the NFL with some quietly impressive run stuffers at the defensive tackle position so I'd expect less runs by Buffalo especially up the middle. Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson are freakishly athletic pass rushers off the edge and Myles Jack possesses elite speed at the LB position. Their secondary could possibly be the worst in the league despite some high draft picks and big FA contracts. The Jaguars have a few blue chip guys in their front seven, but are mostly fielding young/raw players who are starting before they are ready like Tyson Campbell or below-average veterans like Andrew Wingard. It's generally not Buffalo's strong suit, but Jacksonville has been vulnerable vs the screen game. Jacksonville has also struggled to match up with tight ends (allowed 174 yards to the Dolphins TEs for example) so we should have the advantage if Knox can play or if we can use some of our other weapons over the middle to test their LBs and safeties in coverage (other than Jack, this is a slow group).

 

Bills On Defense- Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier have a proven track record of shutting down rookie QBs and I don't expect that to change in Trevor Lawrence's eighth career start despite the hype around him and the fact that I think he's played better than his stats indicate. This will also be the first time in several weeks that the Bills defense will be facing an opposing QB who is NOT among the league leaders in getting the ball out quickly. Lawrence's average time to throw is 2.83 seconds which ranks 25th in the NFL so the pass rush should have more time to get home. Lawrence's splits in this area are very drastic; he's been very accurate and successful when releasing the ball under 2.5 seconds, but his passer rating ranks 34/35 qualified QBs when holding onto the ball for 2.5 seconds or more. The Jacksonville offense is predicated on the run game and short-to-intermediate passes, but they don't throw the ball downfield effectively or often. Like most young QBs, Lawrence also struggles when blitzed so dialing up exotic stunts and bringing extra LBs/DBs while dropping our ends into coverage feels like a good approach for this game. Lawrence is an outstanding runner which the Jaguars haven't utilized as much as they should yet so the Bills will need to get pressure without losing contain. Jacksonville's offensive line has two strong links in LG Andrew Norwell and RT Jawaan Taylor, but are below-average at the other three positions. Lastly, the Bills have been elite at getting takeaways in 2021 while Jacksonville's offense have been giving the ball away a ton so I would expect our defense to get 2-3 takeaways and set up some short fields for the offense. 

 

On Special Teams- Matthew Wright is the current Jaguars kicker after winning the job mid-season in his second year as a pro. He's inexperienced, but has done a decent job in 2021. Logan Cooke is an above-average punter who has been with Jacksonville for several seasons and typically has one of the best hang times of any punter. Jamal Agnew is a dynamic returner with 4.3 speed and a proven track record (6 career TDs as a kick and punt returner). Touchbacks and directional punting will be important to limit his impact. 

 

***Prediction***: Bills 34, Jacksonville 13

 

Alright thanks for reading! Can't wait for Sunday and Go Bills!

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Dont Stop Billeiving
Updated title

[qwksilver]

Nice work as usual. Key stat is Lawrence holds on to the ball longer.

I like a score of 41-8.

[billybrew1]

If I saw this right I'm still questioning why the Bills DIDN'T bring in Klein when Tennessee reached the red-zone. I don't get it, the field was compressed and Tennessee ran it in every time and it looked like we let them.... I don't get it?

 

 

[JGMcD2]

11 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

jesus. Just post the link and a few bits

 

 posting an entire article is not the way to do it

 

 

He writes this himself on the board… can’t really “post the link and a few bits”. 
 

Great feel. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

He writes this himself on the board… can’t really “post the link and a few bits”. 
 

Great feel. 

deleted.  
 

[TBBills]

 

Some other type of scouting...

[JohnNord]

The one player on Jacksonville that I’ve liked since the draft is Laviska Shenault.  I feel that he’s a player an offense can do so much with and there’s a part of that worries about him on gadget play.  

[CSBill]

Good work DSB. Thank you! My only disagreement, I know you are being humble, but I think you're giving Jacksonville more credit than they deserve. And, I believe the Bills will be out to make a statement after last week. So, my prediction is the score will be way more lopsided than you said: Bills 40+ Jaqs 10 or less.

 

Either way, JUST WIN!

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

12 hours ago, qwksilver said:

Nice work as usual. Key stat is Lawrence holds on to the ball longer.

I like a score of 41-8.

Thanks! Yeah that was one of my most significant takeaways for our defense. It's easy to have been disappointed in our pass rush in recent weeks, but Tua and Tannehill are right at the top of the NFL in getting rid of the ball quickest so there weren't many opportunities for sacks or even QB hits. That shouldn't be the case against Lawrence who holds onto the ball longer than most QBs and really struggles against the blitz. 

 

Jacksonville have sneakily hung in there with some of their tougher opponents in 2021 (Bengals and Titans to name a couple) so they might come out swinging early and keep it close, but I expect us to pull away in the second half. Also, if James Robinson misses the game, I think your score prediction could be dead on. 

[muppy]

Don't Stop Billeiving if I had your gift of writing Id shop myself around and be PAID for my obvious talent homey...Not that we don't appreciate you here. I just have to say you are badass at what you do.

 

Muchas gracias!!!! GO BILLS!~!~!~!!!

 

m

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

16 hours ago, JohnNord said:

The one player on Jacksonville that I’ve liked since the draft is Laviska Shenault.  I feel that he’s a player an offense can do so much with and there’s a part of that worries about him on gadget play.  

Agreed, the type of player who could leave Jacksonville after his rookie deal and be a much more productive player with his second team. I will say that his hands are pretty unreliable but if he can get that fixed, I wouldn't say no to the Bills going after him in FA in a couple years.

 

His build and YAC ability would be welcome additions and the addition of another skill set to our WR room plus he is a good rushing option for a few snaps per game too. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Hey all, I didn't want to start a new thread, but I did want to let you know that I won't have time to put together my usual Scouting the Opponent post for the next three weeks as I'm flying home to Buffalo for just the second time since 2019. Will be spending every minute I can get with family and friends and we're actually going to the Bills-Colts game on the 21st which should be fun (although I'm slightly more concerned about the result of that game now!).

 

I'll pick up again once I'm back in Northern Ireland and should be posting every Wednesday night throughout the rest of the season as usual. Thanks and Go Bills!

[Mynamemike]

2 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Hey all, I didn't want to start a new thread, but I did want to let you know that I won't have time to put together my usual Scouting the Opponent post for the next three weeks as I'm flying home to Buffalo for just the second time since 2019. Will be spending every minute I can get with family and friends and we're actually going to the Bills-Colts game on the 21st which should be fun (although I'm slightly more concerned about the result of that game now!).

 

I'll pick up again once I'm back in Northern Ireland and should be posting every Wednesday night throughout the rest of the season as usual. Thanks and Go Bills!

Safe travels

Edited November 10, 2021 by Mynamemike

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Hey all, I didn't want to start a new thread, but I did want to let you know that I won't have time to put together my usual Scouting the Opponent post for the next three weeks as I'm flying home to Buffalo for just the second time since 2019. Will be spending every minute I can get with family and friends and we're actually going to the Bills-Colts game on the 21st which should be fun (although I'm slightly more concerned about the result of that game now!).

 

I'll pick up again once I'm back in Northern Ireland and should be posting every Wednesday night throughout the rest of the season as usual. Thanks and Go Bills!

 

Safe travels, we will miss your posts!