Kubiak on Miami-Bills game: Missing in Action Screen Game located

[Scott7975]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We'll do our own "eye test" on that one

 

 

You said what you were fairly quoted as saying "one of the worst".  You then backtracked to 23rd out of 32 (mediocre, middle of the NFL) to 27 out of 32 depending upon the metric.  You were asked for the source of those stats and how some of them were defined.  You didn't answer.  It's kind of hard to debate against unsourced, undefined stuff.

 

Someone else posted some (equally unsourced) stats claiming the Bills OL is comparable to the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers and "exactly at the average of the 7 AFC teams with records above 0.500".  How about if you go debate that?  Oh wait, without knowing the source and what that means...you can't

 

 

I raised a number of points questioning the meaning of low values on some of your stats.  You didn't respond, just repeated them 🤷‍♂️

 

 

Serious question... are you on drugs or drunk?

 

Do your eye test.  You'll see I have complained about bad o line and sometime Daboll.  that's about it. 

 

They are one of the worst.  I said Bottom 10 to bottom 5 not 23 out of 32(which is bottom 10 btw not middle of the NFL.)  Is any of those saying "WORST in the league."  I think not.

 

You asked for the source.  I gave it to you. 

 

Give me the source of that one stat

 

I answered all your direct questions.  If you didn't read them, that's not my fault is it?  I gave you the source as well as the definition of pocket time.  Its there.  Go look.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

Blitzed 23rd least...

 

[ngbills]

Our rb’s are not the playmakers on this roster. That is why I don’t like an emphasis on screens or swings. Once in while to keep the d guessing but the goal should be to get the ball to diggs, Beas, sanders. Daboll still seems to want to showcase moss a lot at times. Don’t get it. 

[Scott7975]

Pressure %...

 

Pocket time

 

Hurried

 

Hit

 

I realize the image quality is poor but they had to be reduced to put them on this website that has a very low size limit

 

Link to the stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

[Scott7975]

All that together = Josh Allen is pressured 7th most in the league = O line pass protection is garbage.  These stats don't have anything to do with how long he holds the ball either.

 

Any debate other than your own eye ball test yet @Hapless Bills Fan?

[Scott7975]

I will add about the run protection... This was last year and I cant find this year but I doubt they have gotten much better if at all...

 

Quote

 In 2020, Bills running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 43% of their carries, the worst rate in the league. Based on this stat, perhaps we undervalued the running backs, who would certainly look more impressive with better blocking

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Pressure %...

 

Pocket time

 

Hurried

 

Hit

 

I realize the image quality is poor but they had to be reduced to put them on this website that has a very low size limit

 

Link to the stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

 

You do realize that Allen's 2.4 second Pocket Time is tied for 3rd best in the league according to these stats? 

 

So rather than being given the 9th least of amount of time in the pocket by his OL, he's being given the 3rd most (along with several other qb's). 

[WideNine]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hi!  Meet Scott7975.  He may possibly be ScottLaw's Brudda by another mudda.

 

 

I agree with you.  They are average.  There are two points here:

1) Kubiak's point, that sometimes Allen is looking for well-covered downfield throws and waiting for something to come open, when he could take a short throw to one of two wide-open receivers right in front of him, and trust his teammates to make a play

 

2) My corollary, that the line would look sufficient more often and like a complete jailbreak less often, if Allen did this

 

Allen is getting better at this.  I see encouraging signs. 

 

In the KC game I saw stuff where I was YES!  He threw into the Blitz to the Hot Read!  and YES!  He took the checkdown!  But then in the Tenn. game and the 1st half of the MIA game, a step back.

 

And if the other team scores 20 or 21 points on offense while we're figuring it out (as Miami could have were they more competent on offense), it's liable to be an L.

 

 

When You're Right, You're Right.

 

This is exactly where I am at.

 

Our line was porous early, and the juggled roles were not adapting well to what Miami was doing to bring pressure, BUT Allen getting rid of the ball more quickly to his hot reads or outlet/dump receiving options underneath can better mask those issues.

 

After that long scramble in the first half I saw the same thing on that next play - Moss open near the sticks, but Allen was determined to force it to Sanders.

 

Instead of taking the open options underneath we ended up having to have Bass bail us out with a long FG.

 

Allen just needs to know where his outlets are, trust them, and train his brain to look short-to-deep when there is a 2-high safety look.

 

The fact that he has done it more, and started feeding Beas and Moss in the 2nd half tells me that he will get there eventually. 

 

[Utah John]

Consider the possibility that the coaches had a chat with Allen at halftime, telling him that he needed to take the easy stuff and stop trying to be a hero.  Allen might be a demigod to some here, but to the coaches he's one of their good players but still someone they can criticize as necessary.  It's their job to make sure Allen does HIS job.

 

His stats for the second half were quite good.  Double those (as if he'd been playing smart the whole game) and he would have had an excellent game.  

[GunnerBill]

I thought there were far too many screens on Sunday. Felt to me like Daboll was intentionally coaching around his offensive line. Some of that was justified but they pushed it a bit far IMO. We started moving the ball once we threw it down the field. We are not a great screen team as a whole.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

You do realize that Allen's 2.4 second Pocket Time is tied for 3rd best in the league according to these stats? 

 

So rather than being given the 9th least of amount of time in the pocket by his OL, he's being given the 3rd most (along with several other qb's). 

 

actually you might be correct on that.  Ill look again tomorrow I think the column was reversed when I looked.  Doesnt change anything else though.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Serious question... are you on drugs or drunk?

 

Serious answer: this is an inappropriate way to lead off a  civil discussion about football on here.  It's what you do when you're looking for a fight, not a discussion.

 

You get a free pass here because you're dealing with a mod, but I absolutely will not engage with someone who starts off this way, and that's a (one) free pass. 

 

Knock it off and stay civil.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I thought there were far too many screens on Sunday. Felt to me like Daboll was intentionally coaching around his offensive line. Some of that was justified but they pushed it a bit far IMO. We started moving the ball once we threw it down the field. We are not a great screen team as a whole.

 

The reason there were so many screens in the 2Q and beyond (15) was that the Dolphins were blitzing a lot and showing a lot of Cover 0.

The two classic ways to deal with overload blitzes and Cover 0 are screens, or if you can protect long enough a deep route to the middle of the field.

 

The Diggs TD was an example of the latter, the 2Q plays were the former.

 

If we'd managed to sustain drives in the 2Q I'm sure the Dolphins would have gotten out of it, as they did in the 2nd half.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The reason there were so many screens in the 2Q and beyond (15) was that the Dolphins were blitzing a lot and showing a lot of Cover 0.

The two classic ways to deal with overload blitzes and Cover 0 are screens, or if you can protect long enough a deep route to the middle of the field.

 

The Diggs TD was an example of the latter, the 2Q plays were the former.

 

If we'd managed to sustain drives in the 2Q I'm sure the Dolphins would have gotten out of it, as they did in the 2nd half.

 

Yea I am more of a burn the blitz guy than a throw screens guy. Especially when last season Josh was a beast at burning the blitz and as a rule we have not been a great screen team. I just thought we got them too early and too often. Not suggesting they don't have a place but my preference would be to set up shot hot routes for our receivers in the areas the blitzing defenders are leaving unguarded. Screens still need good blocking outside and we haven't shown we are great at executing in those situations. There were a coupe of nicely timed and well called screens - the one to Moss early on the drive at the end of the second quarter was very well timed I just thought we went overboard with them. My whole thing was they were not particularly helping us sustain drives and so they weren't particularly backing the Dolphins off either. Didn't love the gameplan on Sunday. Felt like a coordinator who was coaching a bit scared of what his offensive line was going to look like. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

You do realize that Allen's 2.4 second Pocket Time is tied for 3rd best in the league according to these stats? 

 

So rather than being given the 9th least of amount of time in the pocket by his OL, he's being given the 3rd most (along with several other qb's). 

 

*chuckle*

 

Correct - Allen's pocket time, which Pro Football Reference defines as "average time between snap and throwing the ball or collapse of the pocket" is listed as 10th, but tied for 6th (must be differences in the 2nd digit, not shown). 

 

That's being given a good amount of time to throw - though I'm uncertain as to how they define it - if Allen rolls out before the pocket collapses and buys himself an extra second, does that inflate this metric?  Just as Allen has the 2nd best sack % in the league, but that probably does not speak to OL quality because he's so good at escaping pressure and evading sacks.

 

Some things, like # of hits, absolutely do reflect how long the QB holds the ball.  When Big Ben Roeth was playing a quick passing game last season where he got the ball out before pressure got there, he had one of the lowest hit % in the league because the ball was gone long before the rushers got there. 

 

Unfortunately Pro-football-reference doesn't explain how a bunch of their stuff is calculated.  I suspect they get their stats from somewhere else who might define more fully but they don't say where.  I'd like to understand how they define hurries, for example.  If Allen has to throw perhaps before he wants to, but he's on his 3rd read and meanwhile he's got 2 guys open short whom he's not choosing, is that a hurry?

 

Stats usually mean something, but not always what one thinks they mean.

 

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea I am more of a burn the blitz guy than a throw screens guy. Especially when last season Josh was a beast at burning the blitz and as a rule we have not been a great screen team. I just thought we got them too early and too often. Not suggesting they don't have a place but my preference would be to set up shot hot routes for our receivers in the areas the blitzing defenders are leaving unguarded. Screens still need good blocking outside and we haven't shown we are great at executing in those situations. There were a coupe of nicely timed and well called screens - the one to Moss early on the drive at the end of the second quarter was very well timed I just thought we went overboard with them. My whole thing was they were not particularly helping us sustain drives and so they weren't particularly backing the Dolphins off either. Didn't love the gameplan on Sunday. Felt like a coordinator who was coaching a bit scared of what his offensive line was going to look like. 

 

That latter could be.  And they did look kind of sketchy at first, but they seemed to make adjustments and settle in, in the 2nd half.

[Doc Brown]

32 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

actually you might be correct on that.  Ill look again tomorrow I think the column was reversed when I looked.  Doesnt change anything else though.

It weakens your argument that the Bills have a below average o-line when it comes to pass protection.  I thought in the 2nd half the line did a pretty good job in pass protection allowing him to hit Beasley on some key 3rd down conversions.

[eball]

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Let me repost those stats for you so you can try and tell people the O line is average.  This is all passing stats so it wont even include how bad they are at run blocking

 

Blitzed 23rd lowest %

Allen pressured 25.3% of his passing attempts 9th worst

Allen hurried 6th most

Allen hit 5th most

Pocket time until collapsed 2.4 seconds 7th worst

 

Anybody care to explain to me how the o line is just fine, average, not terrible or whatever?  Please don't give me your eye test garbage.

 

I believe the point of Kubiak’s analysis, and Hap’s posts, is that Josh himself contributes significantly to those statistics by being stubborn and waiting for big plays to develop rather than getting the ball out of his hands to open receivers quickly.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I believe Josh’s time from snap to release is likely among the longest in the league, which backs up that assertion.

 

Edit:  Whoops, sorry @Motorin' — I see you brought this up above!  Great minds…

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by eball

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am more of a burn the blitz guy than a throw screens guy. Especially when last season Josh was a beast at burning the blitz and as a rule we have not been a great screen team. I just thought we got them too early and too often. Not suggesting they don't have a place but my preference would be to set up shot hot routes for our receivers in the areas the blitzing defenders are leaving unguarded. Screens still need good blocking outside and we haven't shown we are great at executing in those situations. There were a coupe of nicely timed and well called screens - the one to Moss early on the drive at the end of the second quarter was very well timed I just thought we went overboard with them. My whole thing was they were not particularly helping us sustain drives and so they weren't particularly backing the Dolphins off either. Didn't love the gameplan on Sunday. Felt like a coordinator who was coaching a bit scared of what his offensive line was going to look like. 

I agree, BUT.    The "BUT" is that we were playing a team that is poor and that we had a very very high chance of beating even with a "c" or"d" game. NOW the rest of the league sees that we WILL throw a screen pass and they can not completely ignore the screen pass.

[Motorin']

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

*chuckle*

 

Correct - Allen's pocket time, which Pro Football Reference defines as "average time between snap and throwing the ball or collapse of the pocket" is listed as 10th, but tied for 6th (must be differences in the 2nd digit, not shown). 

 

That's being given a good amount of time to throw - though I'm uncertain as to how they define it - if Allen rolls out before the pocket collapses and buys himself an extra second, does that inflate this metric?  Just as Allen has the 2nd best sack % in the league, but that probably does not speak to OL quality because he's so good at escaping pressure and evading sacks.

 

Some things, like # of hits, absolutely do reflect how long the QB holds the ball.  When Big Ben Roeth was playing a quick passing game last season where he got the ball out before pressure got there, he had one of the lowest hit % in the league because the ball was gone long before the rushers got there. 

 

Unfortunately Pro-football-reference doesn't explain how a bunch of their stuff is calculated.  I suspect they get their stats from somewhere else who might define more fully but they don't say where.  I'd like to understand how they define hurries, for example.  If Allen has to throw perhaps before he wants to, but he's on his 3rd read and meanwhile he's got 2 guys open short whom he's not choosing, is that a hurry?

 

Stats usually mean something, but not always what one thinks they mean.

 

 

That latter could be.  And they did look kind of sketchy at first, but they seemed to make adjustments and settle in, in the 2nd half.

 

We also really need to look at the total amount of time the QB holds onto the ball before throwing. I'm going to guess that Allen is near the top in the league of total amount of time to throw. But it would help to see those numbers. 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you're missing the point, but I doubt anything I could say would penetrate your mental armor and suffice to explain it.