Surgery and the Bills

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

My wife recently underwent sinus surgery (or roto-rooting as we called it) and all things seem to have worked out fine according to the surgeon after his post-operative exams.

 

All surgery with general anesthesis is a serious thing, but I must admit in comparison to life-saving surgery she had when we were forced to address a childhood lung malady of hers in the late 90s by undergoing a double lung transplant (she celebrated her 7th Re-birthday earlier this year) I must admit it was hard to look at this serious surgery as more than a minor thing. Fortunately it has been routine so far.

 

However, getting past the riskier parts, I began to seek relevance for this and of course found it in comparing the surgery to the Bills.

 

After our 3-13 season and after the GW era (or should I say error) the Bills efforts were analagous to going through a transplant (and I do mean analagous because ultimately football is entertaining trivia and life is life).

 

The Bills move were life-saving actions which if they failed meant life support at best or the equivalent of the team being dead, The stakes of making a mistake on individual decisions were incredibly high because everything had to work merely to get even a winning record.

 

The good news about today's Bills is that it is analagous to my wife's sinus surgery. Its a serious deal and a lot of care, hard work and due diligence is needed (believe me even sinus surgery scheduled to be outpatient is serious, they knocked her out because they do not expect a human being to have someone up their nose cutting and scraping away with a small scalpel for 4 hours and you sit still the entire time) to make it work.

 

However, the decisions and unanswered questions which confront the Bills as important as they may be are not a question of whether the team is on life support or no. Upon consideration of these questions, the returning assets and the new resources added or upgraded, I'm more convinced than ever that this team can make the playoffs. There are some real uncertainties, but the number of life-threatening decisions where the chances of possible success are small and/or a mistake means this team is dead are much fewer than last year at this time. Even better, like the early 90s teams where if Thomas went down you had Keeny Davis as a not bad plan B, today's Bills are actually putting good plan Bs in place or the tough decisions are about #2 RB, #3 WR and there are some reasonable options for these issues.

 

I'm pumped and this my overview:

 

QB- Far better than last year (++)- Last year we went into camp with Bledsoe coming off a horrendous season as our starter, the unknown rookie Losman as our hoped for back-up and Travis Brown as the other option. This year we have the only slightly more know Losman as our starter, but actually seem to have an almost perfect back-up for the Frank Reich role (not a likely starter, but some success in limited roles who can comfortably be counted on for 3 games and maybe more if we are forced). In fact, there may even be a little competition for the #3 job between Matthews who is another vet for mentoring JP, but ironically was the highest rated QB in the league last year in his brief mop-up role. Thompson has had surprisingly good success in Europe and is probably a good PS guy.

 

RB- Same as last year (/)- Last year we came in with a 2 time in a row 1300 yd. rusher as out #1 but grave uncertainty about our #2 due to the WM injury. This year we have an even more hopeful talent at starter and similar uncertainty regarding the #2. This one easily gets moved up to one + since we now have a one game 100 yard rusher at #3 and we sign Thomas, judge Hearst to have something left, or even employ TH as #2 who really has no good options if the Bills cannot trade him than to suck it up and play hard as a #2 for WM in order to get a good contract as an FA (I actually think he will be traded though). The FB situation sees the at least adequate Shelton with another year and likely Neufeld as an H-back because TE is crowded (see below).

 

OL- Marginally better than last year (+)- As much wie-is-meeing and panty wadding as folks have been doing about the OL situation it was worst at the minicamp point last year. The LG was gone and uncertain for 04, the RG situation was hopeful but had never played for us before, the C had engendered many complaints from Bills fans, the LT was stable but had never started 16 in a season and was going to be an FA at seasons end, and the RT was melting down over a death in the family.

 

There are questions this year but, RG is set with a year of Villarial, the LG situation is analagous to last year's LG with Anderson being both not all we want but a clear upgrade over Smith, C Teague is coming off of his best performance as a Bill in the second half of last year and if you move him to LT Tucker filled in well for him last year and Preston actually will compete for the job, RT is set and MW may be ready to meet our #4 expectations, and LT is the lone blank, but Teague, Gandy and even Peters gives us some options with JMac in charge.

 

Add to this that even with last year being a worse set-up, last year's OL eneded up being a key part to us getting 5 in a row and finishing 8 Ws in our last 10 games. If one wants to only give credit to the ST and D for this, remember someone blocked for WM.

 

WR (++)- This looked like a potential problem area in terms of filling the gaps and now the question may be what do we do if we have an extra keeper in Fast Freddy Smith. Aiken has the physical tools and finished last year on a high note and is a reasonable possibility to deserve the #3 WR job. Parrish is viewed as the real deal to be the slot by some despite being a smurf, fine just take it or contribute on ST if you are not ready for #3. Finally, there are plenty of legit reasons to badmouth Josh Reed after he failed at being #2 and his injured season last year. However, as a rookie Reed showed he can do a good job as #3 if he has the equivalent of Moulds/Price and Moulds/Evans appears to be just that.

 

TE (++)- While their is uncertainty here also, the uncertainty last year was after the OK but notgreat Campbell all things were uncertain. This year the injury issues create uncertainty (but reports both Euhus and Campbell are 100% are sweet) but the problem is that given it looks like 3 players (plus Everett) how do we deal with Neufeld and Trafford who both contributed to the 04 team and now look like cuts and Peters who will make this roster and probably will have to do so as T because TE is full.

 

At any rate, I think when the smoke clears at RB we may be ++ across the board on O.

 

DBs- (+)- age is the main reason I have this as only marginally rather than much better. If Milloy and Vincent are at safety (both missed significant time last year), I think they team with two players who made the Pro Bowl (though McGee made it as a KR guy but he is clearly gaining in CB play) to give the Bills potentially one of the most formidable secondaries in the league. Thomas and Greer give us two credible nickels and given that Vincent moved to S from being an INT productive corner, there are 5 guys I am comfortable with the single covering virtually any WR in the league. Baker needs to show me a second season before I believe in him, but though I expect this crew to miss some time with nicks, I feel we have the back-ups in place to not see this group driop at all in production even with two injuries.

 

LBs (/)- Yhis group is at the same level as last year, but given the same level includes Pro Bowler Spikes and leading tackler Fletcher this i pretty good. Posey is little more than potential individually but as the LBs and D are productive in the real world as a group I can comfortably judge as strong across the board. Plan B is an issue because no back-up cn reasonably be expected to be Spikes or even rack up as many tackles as Fletcher. However, Stamer was productive as a reserve and potentially could show more. Crowell and Haggan have shown little as back-ups (they haven't had to) but have been very good on ST so the potential is not realized but is there as well.

 

DL- (/)- I think this is as close as we get to a lifesaving question and uncertainty. On the one hand the loss of Phat Pat creates real issues for the stoutness of our run defense. However, the fact Phat Pat only was on the field for around 60% of the D plays (I know most of these were 3rd downs where Pat took a blow anyway, but does anyone really think (and in fact is it even mathematically possible) that over a third of our plays were third downs. Stepped up play by Edwards and possibilities but uncertainties surrounding Anderson make replacing him possible. Add use of the run blitz and I am comfortable that at worse we are in the same shape regarding DL.

 

Overall, I'd say the D is the same, but the same is pretty darn good.

 

PR- (+)- Hard to believe but we have choices to be made here between Smith and Clements who both got PR punt returns last year and Parrish who did well in this area in college. The ST which was incredibly productive last year seems back intact.

 

KR- (/)- when coming back at the same level means staying at a Pro Bowl level like is good.

 

P (/)- The only way this gets better is if Moorman is not rooked in Pro Bowl voting.

 

K (/)- Kickers are a squirrely bunch and the main reason this could get better is that Lindell was great at kickoffs (no big returns thanks to great coverage and him kicking it to the right spot with the right height time after time and also due to a good job with onsides by Lindell) but simply inadequate at placekicking. He simply must improve his play and there is no objective reason to assume he will, but objectivity and kickers have little to do with each other.

 

Overall, I'd say the ST is the same, but the same is pretty darn good.

 

All in all, I'd say we're DEMOOoooooD

[Corp000085]

First of all, congrats to your wife on her successful recovery.

 

 

I have a very hard time looking at things objectively with the bills, but i think the difference between 12-4 and 4-12 lies somewhere between the knee of willis mcgahee, ron edwards being able to play every down, and whoever ends up being the kicker. There's plenty of depth at WR, QB will not be a problem (as far as i know right now...), and barring a torn ACL by the new tight end, we'll have plenty of guys to fill that position. Clements is in a contract year, mike williams is playing to not get cut after this year, there's a big upside to revamping the line with mcnally as the coach, Mike mularkey is in year #2 with the experience of last september in his back pocket, and eric moulds is excited to play again. Lots and lots of upside with low expectations from losman.

 

I'm excited about this season for a couple reasons. 1) i'm a bills fan, and end of april is when i start to get that itch (not that itch, the other one). 2) there's a lot of uncertainty in the fact that i've never seen losman play and manage a game. that gets me going.