Bills after long rest past 3 years

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

I've seen and heard some speculation today that the Bills are developing a habit of not being at their best after long rest. Do you think these results support this idea? I've included season openers here because I think it's a similar dynamic (although it's an extra-long layover, obviously).

 

2019
Week 1: Bills trail Jets 16-3 going into 4th quarter, win 17-16.
After bye: Bills trail 0-5 Dolphins 14-9 at home at halftime, score 22 points in 4th quarter to win.
After mini-bye after Thursday game: Bills lose at home to Ravens, who were favored.

 

2020
Week 1: This was a good opener. Bills led Jets 21-3 at halftime and won 27-17.
After bye: Bills sluggish, one-score game late against 3-7 Chargers at home, end up winning 27-17. Very similar feeling to Sunday's game.

 

2021
Week 1: Bills lay egg in home opener vs. Steelers.
After bye: Bills sluggish, fortunate to be tied 3-3 with 1-6 Dolphins at halftime, go on to win.

 

Ultimately, the Bills are 5-2 in these situations, but most of the games against inferior competition have been more of a struggle than most analysts and fans were expecting. It seems like the Bills do better when the blood has been flowing for a while.

 

Does this cause any concern if the Bills get the #1 seed and get that extra bye? Does history suggest that this would be an advantage for the Bills? Maybe the fact that it's playoffs would change the dynamic?

 

I hope for thoughtful replies to this topic.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I've seen and heard some speculation today that the Bills are developing a habit of not being at their best after long rest. Do you think these results support this idea? I've included season openers here because I think it's a similar dynamic (although it's an extra-long layover, obviously).

 

2019
Week 1: Bills trail Jets 16-3 going into 4th quarter, win 17-16.
After bye: Bills trail 0-5 Dolphins 14-9 at home at halftime, score 22 points in 4th quarter to win.
After mini-bye after Thursday game: Bills lose at home to Ravens, who were favored.

 

2020
Week 1: This was a good opener. Bills led Jets 21-3 at halftime and won 27-17.
After bye: Bills sluggish, one-score game late against 3-7 Chargers at home, end up winning 27-17. Very similar feeling to Sunday's game.

 

2021
Week 1: Bills lay egg in home opener vs. Steelers.
After bye: Bills sluggish, fortunate to be tied 3-3 with 1-6 Dolphins at halftime, go on to win.

 

Ultimately, the Bills are 5-2 in these situations, but most of the games against inferior competition have been more of a struggle than most analysts and fans were expecting. It seems like the Bills do better when the blood has been flowing for a while.

 

Does this cause any concern if the Bills get the #1 seed and get that extra bye? Does history suggest that this would be an advantage for the Bills? Maybe the fact that it's playoffs would change the dynamic?

 

I hope for thoughtful replies to this topic.

 

Definitely want them to get the #1 seed. They can use that extra week off to get healthy as you know some players will be hurting. Two playoff games in OP I like the Bills chances.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I've seen and heard some speculation today that the Bills are developing a habit of not being at their best after long rest. Do you think these results support this idea? I've included season openers here because I think it's a similar dynamic (although it's an extra-long layover, obviously).

 

2019
Week 1: Bills trail Jets 16-3 going into 4th quarter, win 17-16.
After bye: Bills trail 0-5 Dolphins 14-9 at home at halftime, score 22 points in 4th quarter to win.
After mini-bye after Thursday game: Bills lose at home to Ravens, who were favored.

 

2020
Week 1: This was a good opener. Bills led Jets 21-3 at halftime and won 27-17.
After bye: Bills sluggish, one-score game late against 3-7 Chargers at home, end up winning 27-17. Very similar feeling to Sunday's game.

 

2021
Week 1: Bills lay egg in home opener vs. Steelers.
After bye: Bills sluggish, fortunate to be tied 3-3 with 1-6 Dolphins at halftime, go on to win.

 

Ultimately, the Bills are 5-2 in these situations, but most of the games against inferior competition have been more of a struggle than most analysts and fans were expecting. It seems like the Bills do better when the blood has been flowing for a while.

 

Does this cause any concern if the Bills get the #1 seed and get that extra bye? Does history suggest that this would be an advantage for the Bills? Maybe the fact that it's playoffs would change the dynamic?

 

I hope for thoughtful replies to this topic.

 

We went on like a 9 game winning streak after the bye last year.  The Chargers after losing to the Bills won 4 out of their last 5.

[BuffBillsForLife]

The Bills' fortunes in the playoffs depend on two things: our O-line finding it within themselves to not be a sieve, and Josh not getting too hyped up.  Extra rest is good after another 11 weeks of very large men running into our own very large men.

[Matt_In_NH]

They Bills are undefeated coming off the bye under McDermott.  I do get your point of the them being flat in general.  Not sure I consider opening week coming off long rest, I mean I get it, they have not played in 6 months but all teams are equally coming to the table in the same situation.   Bye weeks are different.  You could also consider coming off Thursday games which is not as significant...

[Beast]

Oh no.

 

Whether anyone will say it or not, the playoffs are a different animal and the players will be ready after a two week layoff. The preparation will be top notch.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Beast

[Warcodered]

When you make a list suggesting they're sluggish coming off a break, maybe they shouldn't be 5-2 on said list.

[FilthyBeast]

This is another reason I would worry about this team coming off the bye as the #1 seed in the playoffs, same reason we've seen other big upsets in the divisional round in the past and also why some teams have played like crap in the SB and lost big after sitting two weeks after the conference championship games.

 

With that said, in regards to the playoffs I still think this team needs to ensure homefield throughout for the best chance to get to the SB this year.

[Dablitzkrieg]

Not worried.  As previously mentioned,  this team will definitely be ready come playoffs 

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I've seen and heard some speculation today that the Bills are developing a habit of not being at their best after long rest. Do you think these results support this idea? I've included season openers here because I think it's a similar dynamic (although it's an extra-long layover, obviously).

 

2019
Week 1: Bills trail Jets 16-3 going into 4th quarter, win 17-16.
After bye: Bills trail 0-5 Dolphins 14-9 at home at halftime, score 22 points in 4th quarter to win.
After mini-bye after Thursday game: Bills lose at home to Ravens, who were favored.

 

2020
Week 1: This was a good opener. Bills led Jets 21-3 at halftime and won 27-17.
After bye: Bills sluggish, one-score game late against 3-7 Chargers at home, end up winning 27-17. Very similar feeling to Sunday's game.

 

2021
Week 1: Bills lay egg in home opener vs. Steelers.
After bye: Bills sluggish, fortunate to be tied 3-3 with 1-6 Dolphins at halftime, go on to win.

 

Ultimately, the Bills are 5-2 in these situations, but most of the games against inferior competition have been more of a struggle than most analysts and fans were expecting. It seems like the Bills do better when the blood has been flowing for a while.

 

Does this cause any concern if the Bills get the #1 seed and get that extra bye? Does history suggest that this would be an advantage for the Bills? Maybe the fact that it's playoffs would change the dynamic?

 

I hope for thoughtful replies to this topic.

Per the bold, no concern at all. The week off for the number one seed isn’t “time” off like the bye week. Players stay in town,  get to the facility each day, rehab, etc. It’s a work week and focus is sharpened. 

[LeGOATski]

They're undefeated after the bye. So, no. Not worried.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

23 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

When you make a list suggesting they're sluggish coming off a break, maybe they shouldn't be 5-2 on said list.

I think I addressed that in the post with comments about sluggish play below expectations against inferior opponents. It's not really about the record here, because it seems like they could get in trouble with sluggish play against better opponents.

[TBBills]

35 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I've seen and heard some speculation today that the Bills are developing a habit of not being at their best after long rest. Do you think these results support this idea? I've included season openers here because I think it's a similar dynamic (although it's an extra-long layover, obviously).

 

2019
Week 1: Bills trail Jets 16-3 going into 4th quarter, win 17-16.
After bye: Bills trail 0-5 Dolphins 14-9 at home at halftime, score 22 points in 4th quarter to win.
After mini-bye after Thursday game: Bills lose at home to Ravens, who were favored.

 

2020
Week 1: This was a good opener. Bills led Jets 21-3 at halftime and won 27-17.
After bye: Bills sluggish, one-score game late against 3-7 Chargers at home, end up winning 27-17. Very similar feeling to Sunday's game.

 

2021
Week 1: Bills lay egg in home opener vs. Steelers.
After bye: Bills sluggish, fortunate to be tied 3-3 with 1-6 Dolphins at halftime, go on to win.

 

Ultimately, the Bills are 5-2 in these situations, but most of the games against inferior competition have been more of a struggle than most analysts and fans were expecting. It seems like the Bills do better when the blood has been flowing for a while.

 

Does this cause any concern if the Bills get the #1 seed and get that extra bye? Does history suggest that this would be an advantage for the Bills? Maybe the fact that it's playoffs would change the dynamic?

 

I hope for thoughtful replies to this topic.

As long as we get that W.

 

The playoffs always change the dynamic. Teams play differently in the playoffs. I don't see being #1 seed as a problem. Much different than having a bye week especially this early in the season.

Edited November 1, 2021 by TBBills

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I want the one seed but I would be lying if I said i wouldn’t be scared of a slow start like we have seen coming out of bye weeks recently.

 

Bills sort of started slow last year against the Colts without a bye week but o also thought that had more to do with just really bad special teams play and field position in the first half.

 

Theoretically as the #2 seed you should get to play some scrub #7 seed. But of course last year the AFC didn’t really work out that way but the NFC did when the Saints got to play a bad Bears team. AFC might not workout that way again this year either.

[John from Riverside]

Teams they get the number one seed get to lick their wounds and have an extra week to get players healthy well other teams beat the ***** out of each other

 

Give me the number one seed

[1st&ten]

Ask the Patriots if the number 1 seed with a week off & home field makes a difference.

[BillsfaninSB]

I would take the one seed every time all of the time.

 

Imagine if the Bills had the 1 seed last year.   The receiving core would have had an extra week to heal.  Diggs, Brown and Beasley needed it.

 

And less chances for injury.  Moss would have been available for KC most likely.