The “math” of going for 2 makes no sense

[Cheektowaga Chad]

14 minutes ago, RJ (not THAT RJ) said:

I just had to laugh at the thought of every person who laid the Bills giving 13 having a heart attack when the dolphins made it.

Me. I had them at 13.5, when I made the bet the line was 14 but I bought the half point

[Dukestreetking]

3 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Me. I had them at 13.5, when I made the bet the line was 14 but I bought the half point

Serious question, as I don't bet (anymore): what was your anxiety level giving 14? I ask b/c my nerves would overcome game enjoyment on a bet like that.

[blitzboy54]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I absolutely despise teams going for 2

Based on the so-called “math.” The “math” strikes me as flawed many times. 
 

For example, why in the world did the Dolphins go for 2 when they cut the lead to 17-9 today? If they miss that, then they have dug themselves into an unneeded hole just to tie. If they make it, so what? Their “math” assumes the Bills wouldn’t score again, and the bills promptly kicked a FG, making it a 9-point game. So they basically took an unnecessary risk. 
 

I guess my biggest gripes about it

are:

 

1) coaches often go for 2 without taking into account the variables of the other team scoring again. That’s why I don’t think you should go for 2 until you absolutely have to— the very end of the game.

 

2) teams overvalue their success rates for going for 2. No team goes for it enough to have enough data to make a data-driven decision. And you can’t extrapolate (well) based on league averages because teams vary greatly in red zone/inside 5 success rates. 

 

 

because they are trying to win?

[Rew]

The math is pretty easy of why to go for 2 near the end of game.  In overtime you tie around 7% of the time.  Meaning you win around 46.5% of the time in overtime.  You miss the XP around 7% of the time.  That gives you an expected win% of around 42% it you go for the xp.  If you think you have a good play schemed up that you can make the 2 pt at better than 42% chance you should go for it.  

[Aussie Joe]

Does anyone have the figures on how many  successful 2 point attempts the Bills have given up say the last 3 years?

 

Seems like well over 50%...

Edited October 31, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[notwoz]

It does. You just don't understand it.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

51 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

Sure it makes sense,  it puts them in position to win on the road against team no expects you to beat.  Down only 6,  it puts the pressure back on the Bills. 

If they make it. If they miss it, then they put a lot more pressure on themselves to even have a chance to tie. 

[RiotAct]

I think the call made perfect sense from the Dolphins’ perspective.   You’re 1-6, so why not.   and if you don’t convert you can always go for 2 on your next touchdown also (well, assuming you get another touchdown, har har).

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, eSJayDee said:

It's all about probability & utility.  Given equal utility (which is debatable), if you think you're gonna score 2 > 50% of the time, you go for it (every time).  (Even if you make 100% of your kicks, your expected points are only 1.0).

In the Dolphins case, they needed more than 14 pts more than us in order to win.  Once they score the TD, if they make the 2pts, now they only need 7 more.  If they miss, they still need a TD & another score (a 2 pt PAT ties it & a FG wins).  So in this case, given relatively equal "payouts", the utility gained by going for 2 makes it the prudent move, by not only giving you a better chance to win (assuming successful), but also facilitates better strategy down the road.

( I probably didn't explain the reasoning well - I was a math major, not English )

i Guess my problem isn’t the math, but the assumptions. I don’t think teams can say that the odds of making a 2-pointer are static. It’s not like a PAT— it is a “contested” play that depends a lot on your red zone offensive success and the red zone defense. The Jags going against the Steelers for a 2-pointer looks a lot different than the Bucs against the Jets, or even the league average. 
 

I actually think teams know the assumptions aren’t accurate— if they were, from a pure math standpoint, you would go for 2 every time. 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

1 hour ago, Dukestreetking said:

Serious question, as I don't bet (anymore): what was your anxiety level giving 14? I ask b/c my nerves would overcome game enjoyment on a bet like that.

I bet on the bills every week but I quickly dis regard the bet and just root for the bills to win. Why I'm not sure but I continue to do it haha

 

Ive also learned not to bet big on the bills unless they are under dogs then its fair game

[Dukestreetking]

1 minute ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

I bet on the bills every week but I quickly dis regard the bet and just root for the bills to win. Why I'm not sure but I continue to do it haha

 

Ive also learned not to bet big on the bills unless they are under dogs then its fair game

Still, don't those brass ones get kinda heavy?😎

[Cheektowaga Chad]

10 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i Guess my problem isn’t the math, but the assumptions. I don’t think teams can say that the odds of making a 2-pointer are static. It’s not like a PAT— it is a “contested” play that depends a lot on your red zone offensive success and the red zone defense. The Jags going against the Steelers for a 2-pointer looks a lot different than the Bucs against the Jets, or even the league average. 
 

I actually think teams know the assumptions aren’t accurate— if they were, from a pure math standpoint, you would go for 2 every time. 

I agree with your thought that different teams are different situations but I disagree as to why coaches don't do it every time

 

Coaches don't do it because they are conservative by nature. As a fan or observer we can be and think as aggressively as possible. Coaches are trying to keep a job. Doing something thats never been done before and can lose you a game puts your job on the hot seat 

[DrPJax]

5 hours ago, LEBills said:

I agree, cutting it to a 6 point game is nice but miss and now you have to get a two point conversion.

 

Flores is not a good coach so maybe in a vacuum the math made sense but in context it was stupid. Didn’t matter either way because the math said we were a better team.

No different than Mcd choosing to go for it on 4 th in tenn; was going for a POSSIBLE win on the road in a difficult venue,  esp since our O was not scoring at will. Remember we only had 3 pints at half time.   We all know how many times this o can suddenly for no reason go into periods where they just make mental errors, stall drives for quarters at a time etc.     With their record he was risking nothing and was actually thinking a little out of the box and it worked as far as getting the chance he was hoping for, right ?  Why can’t we ever or rarely ever stop two point conversions ?  I bet we are one of the lower successful teams at stoping those and paradoxically, we are also quite bad at converting them ourselves and both things played out again today.  

[WhoTom]

5 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

If you miss you go for 2 again and statistically you have a better chance of making it after missing 1 already

 

No. There's still a 50% chance, regardless of whether you missed it the first time. It's like a coin toss - if it comes up heads 4 times in a row, there's not a higher probability of it coming up tails on the next one.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

21 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

No. There's still a 50% chance, regardless of whether you missed it the first time. It's like a coin toss - if it comes up heads 4 times in a row, there's not a higher probability of it coming up tails on the next one.

Sir this is a Wendy's 

[Big Turk]

Considering we had a week where 14 XP were missed, I think an argument could be made that it makes sense to go for 2 ALL the time.

[Greg S]

Miami going for 2 made no sense. If you miss then you put yourself in a position where you need a two point conversion to tie. Just kick the extra point and make it 17-10. Doesn't really matter since there season is over anyway.

[foreboding]

I thought flores decision was ludicrous, despite the result. Also, his early timeout when the bills had 2nd and 6 was questionable.

[Bills fan since 87]

I mean, if you go for the two why not wait until the next score, where you might be going for the win.  It seems you'd put it off until the end.  But everyone does it the way the Fish do now.

[nucci]

On 10/31/2021 at 5:44 PM, RosseauDaGawd said:

The Dolphins are on the road with nothing to lose. Take a shot at your defense getting a defensive score or something and having a chance to win with an xp rather than tie where you have to go into OT with a ***** OL and missing 2 of your top 4 WRs still.

 

 

except the game