The “math” of going for 2 makes no sense

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I absolutely despise teams going for 2

Based on the so-called “math.” The “math” strikes me as flawed many times. 
 

For example, why in the world did the Dolphins go for 2 when they cut the lead to 17-9 today? If they miss that, then they have dug themselves into an unneeded hole just to tie. If they make it, so what? Their “math” assumes the Bills wouldn’t score again, and the bills promptly kicked a FG, making it a 9-point game. So they basically took an unnecessary risk. 
 

I guess my biggest gripes about it

are:

 

1) coaches often go for 2 without taking into account the variables of the other team scoring again. That’s why I don’t think you should go for 2 until you absolutely have to— the very end of the game.

 

2) teams overvalue their success rates for going for 2. No team goes for it enough to have enough data to make a data-driven decision. And you can’t extrapolate (well) based on league averages because teams vary greatly in red zone/inside 5 success rates. 

 

 

[Cray51]

I actually think Flores wanted to get the game within two field goals.

 

ten minutes left, opposing team hadn’t done much with the ball.  Trust your D and give yourself flexibility

[LEBills]

I agree, cutting it to a 6 point game is nice but miss and now you have to get a two point conversion.

 

Flores is not a good coach so maybe in a vacuum the math made sense but in context it was stupid. Didn’t matter either way because the math said we were a better team.

[Bing Bong]

The math:

 

If you think you have a 50% chance of getting 2, it's equal to a 100% chance of making an extra point.

 

Moving the extra point back makes way more sense now going for 2 in reasonable situations, since the XP is far from guaranteed.

 

I guess they think going for 2 twice when down 14, odds are they hit one to at least tie the game. If they get it on the first like the Dolphins did they have a shot to win it. I guess it's en vogue now. I like the idea for any competent offense.

 

Heck Dolphins kicker pretty much missed an extra point that game

Edited October 31, 2021 by FormerlyPT5P

[GoBills808]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/amp/

[Saxum]

His kicker was terrible and he was not confident he could kick an extra point.

[boater]

Going for 2.. going for it on 4th down.. it's the latest trend. Makes the game exciting at least.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

The math going for 2 when scoring a td down 14 to cut the lead to 6 is all about winning the game in regulation. 

 

The math on getting a successful 2 pt conversion is nearly 50/50. So if you for 2 on the first td, and its successful your chances of winning in regulation improve dramatically. If you miss you go for 2 again and statistically you have a better chance of making it after missing 1 already

[BillsFan130]

8 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

His kicker was terrible and he was not confident he could kick an extra point.

He trusted him to kick a 51 yard field goal in which he made, so why wouldn't he trust him to kick an extra point?

 

And he let him kick that 51 harder after he missed the shorter field goal

Edited October 31, 2021 by BillsFan130

[eSJayDee]

It's all about probability & utility.  Given equal utility (which is debatable), if you think you're gonna score 2 > 50% of the time, you go for it (every time).  (Even if you make 100% of your kicks, your expected points are only 1.0).

In the Dolphins case, they needed more than 14 pts more than us in order to win.  Once they score the TD, if they make the 2pts, now they only need 7 more.  If they miss, they still need a TD & another score (a 2 pt PAT ties it & a FG wins).  So in this case, given relatively equal "payouts", the utility gained by going for 2 makes it the prudent move, by not only giving you a better chance to win (assuming successful), but also facilitates better strategy down the road.

( I probably didn't explain the reasoning well - I was a math major, not English )

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

39 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I absolutely despise teams going for 2

Based on the so-called “math.” The “math” strikes me as flawed many times. 
 

For example, why in the world did the Dolphins go for 2 when they cut the lead to 17-9 today? If they miss that, then they have dug themselves into an unneeded hole just to tie. If they make it, so what? Their “math” assumes the Bills wouldn’t score again, and the bills promptly kicked a FG, making it a 9-point game. So they basically took an unnecessary risk. 
 

I guess my biggest gripes about it

are:

 

1) coaches often go for 2 without taking into account the variables of the other team scoring again. That’s why I don’t think you should go for 2 until you absolutely have to— the very end of the game.

 

2) teams overvalue their success rates for going for 2. No team goes for it enough to have enough data to make a data-driven decision. And you can’t extrapolate (well) based on league averages because teams vary greatly in red zone/inside 5 success rates. 

 

 

 

I agree with point #1, though can also make the argument going for two early allows you to know what you need to do later on.

 

Having said that does seem strange that Miami went for 2 when they did unless they just wanted to play for the win not a tie, but still seemed awful early to be worrying about that.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

30 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

The math going for 2 when scoring a td down 14 to cut the lead to 6 is all about winning the game in regulation. 

 

The math on getting a successful 2 pt conversion is nearly 50/50. So if you for 2 on the first td, and its successful your chances of winning in regulation improve dramatically. If you miss you go for 2 again and statistically you have a better chance of making it after missing 1 already

i guess the 50/50 probability is where I have some problems. What is that even based on? I can tell you right now looking at the Bills and how they have operated in that area, I would give them like a 15% chance to make a 2, and a 99.99% chance for Bass to make a PAT. I feel like the extrapolated data on going for 2 is flawed. 

[GoBills808]

It was the right call

 

gives you the best chance of winning

[TheFunPolice]

I know I swallowed a bit harder after the 2

 

What does your opponent want you to do there? Kick the XP.

 

That put pressure on the Bills, but the team responded well. It was their only shot. 

Edited October 31, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[Special K]

Analytics have ruined baseball, poker, and now they are slowly creeping their way into football......stick to accounting, nerds!!!!!

[Cruiserplayer]

Good call going for two there. If they make it they are a td an extra point away from taking the lead or two field goals away from tyeing. If Miami misses the 2 they know they know they have to score a td and go for 2.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Pats just scored to go up 22-17 in the game and they go for 2. But what if they go for 1, And kick a FG the next drive. That would be an 9-point lead. Wouldn’t you rather have a 9-point lead (2 scores) than risk missing and then only being up 8 (1 score)? 

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

I just had to laugh at the thought of every person who laid the Bills giving 13 having a heart attack when the dolphins made it.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

29 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i guess the 50/50 probability is where I have some problems. What is that even based on? I can tell you right now looking at the Bills and how they have operated in that area, I would give them like a 15% chance to make a 2, and a 99.99% chance for Bass to make a PAT. I feel like the extrapolated data on going for 2 is flawed. 

The 50/50 probability is just based on historical league wide since the beginning of the 2 pt conversion.(I think the exact number is actually 48%)

 

I would be interested in seeing the percentage of it if a team solely did 2 point conversions as I do think the numbers a bit screwed since its still considered a special play. And really only done at the end of games with tired defenses

 

Kind if off topic but college football overtime moves to a 2 pt conversion contest in the 3rd or, so everyone is about to get a lot more info/data on 2 pt trys 

[Niagara Dude]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I absolutely despise teams going for 2

Based on the so-called “math.” The “math” strikes me as flawed many times. 
 

For example, why in the world did the Dolphins go for 2 when they cut the lead to 17-9 today? If they miss that, then they have dug themselves into an unneeded hole just to tie. If they make it, so what? Their “math” assumes the Bills wouldn’t score again, and the bills promptly kicked a FG, making it a 9-point game. So they basically took an unnecessary risk. 
 

I guess my biggest gripes about it

are:

 

1) coaches often go for 2 without taking into account the variables of the other team scoring again. That’s why I don’t think you should go for 2 until you absolutely have to— the very end of the game.

 

2) teams overvalue their success rates for going for 2. No team goes for it enough to have enough data to make a data-driven decision. And you can’t extrapolate (well) based on league averages because teams vary greatly in red zone/inside 5 success rates. 

 

 

Sure it makes sense,  it puts them in position to win on the road against team no expects you to beat.  Down only 6,  it puts the pressure back on the Bills.