Scouting The Miami Dolphins (Week 8 2021)

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

It's been a long two weeks. Back to work. 

 

Looking ahead, the Bills are back in Orchard Park to take on the struggling Miami Dolphins. Miami is on a six game losing streak and have suffered some key injuries and below average QB play, but a large share of the blame has to be laid on this defense. After their success in 2020 (Bills games not included) and all of the investment on that side of the ball, the Dolphins are just giving up far too many chunk plays and can't get off the field. The regression of the defense especially that secondary combined with the lack of resources put into the offensive line and poor drafting overall has submarined the 2021 Dolphins season. That Week 1 win against the Patriots seems very far away. To be fair, Tua has missed several games and he has played better since his return. Miami still has dangerous weapons like Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle and they have some blue-chip talent on defense as well even if they are playing as less than the sum of their parts. Despite our recent track record against Miami, division games can be tough and I expect a feisty opponent on Sunday who could finally roll out their full line up on offense for the first time this season and will be motivated by everyone picking against them. 

 

The Dolphins injury list is a mixed-bag this week. They look like they could finally get Devante Parker back (whose physicality we have struggled with in the past at times) and Jerome Baker's injury doesn't sound as bad as initially feared, but Jason McCourty and Malcolm Brown both landed on the IR this week and this game comes too early for Will Fuller's return. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into Miami's last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2021 

 

 

Sunday October 10th- Week 5 Away Loss vs. Tampa Bay (the Bucs (current record: 6-1) have the 1st ranked offense, 7th ranked defense, and 23rd ranked special teams) by a score of 45-17:

 

Jacoby Brissett (27/39 for 275 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 0 rushing yards)- Played about as well as could be expected behind this poor Miami offensive line as Tua Tagovailoa remained on the IR. Put the perfect touch on a screen pass to Myles Gaskin to take a 10-7 lead. Brissett later overthrew Williams as he was running open deep down the field on third down and threw a pick on a well-thrown ball that was entirely Waddle's fault. Brissett was under pressure constantly as the Tampa defensive front won the LoS. Liam Eichenberg (their rookie LT who has replaced 2020 1st rounder Austin Jackson) was beaten around the edge by Shaq Barrett who strip-sacked Brissett and recovered the fumble, killing one of Miami's best scoring opportunities. The offensive line had a poor showing, allowing 3 sacks and several additional pressures/hurries. 

 

Dolphins Running Game- Miami barely ran the ball (9 total carries), but Gaskin (25 yards and 5.0 YPC as well as 10 catches for 74 yards and 2 TDs) was an effective weapon in the passing game, especially on screens, and took advantage of a busted coverage to walk in for a TD on a well-executed wheel route. Gaskin also showed some nice hands on an underthrown ball to the flat which he hauled in for his second TD catch. 

 

Devante Parker- out injured.

 

Jaylen Waddle (2 catches for 31 yards)- Waddle had been a high variance rookie to this point in the year and his rollercoaster season continued in this matchup. Did a good job to gain separation on an early third-and-goal play, but then dropped the ball in the end zone, forcing the Dolphins to settle for 3 points. He bounced back with a nice catch-and-run at the end of the half, juking the safety out of his shoes, but then dropped another ball on his final target, popping the ball up into the air for a Tampa INT. 

 

Preston Williams (3 catches for 60 yards)- Miami's best player on the day. Hauled in a beautiful toe-tap grab on the left sideline and then on the next play, turned Richard Sherman inside-out on a quick curl route for 30+ YAC on Miami's first drive. Drew a huge pass interference penalty on Sherman in the end zone to set up a Dolphins TD in the second half. Injured during the game. 

 

Mike Gesicki (4 receptions for 43 yards)- provided a reliable safety valve for Brissett. Freak athlete with great hands and have to note that he brings the juice on every play despite how rough Miami's season has been. Gesicki needs to improve his blocking though as he is very one-dimensional and I believe it tips off the defense to a passing play whenever he's on the field. 

 

Dolphins Run Defense- Struggled to bring down Leonard Fournette (67 yards, 5.6 YPC, and 1 TD) and missed a ton of tackles. Xavien Howard appeared to make a business decision, allowing a second-half Fournette TD run at the goal line which really put the game out of reach. 

 

Dolphins Pass Defense- Gave Tom Brady (30/41 for 411 yards, 5 passing TDs, and 0 INTs with 13 rushing yards) all day to throw in the pocket and gave up far too many chunk plays downfield in the passing game despite having the most expensive CB room in the NFL ($38.5 million in cap spending). Howard was badly beaten on a crossing route by Antonio Brown (a play that reminded me of Bills-Dolphins Round 1 last season) who took it up the left sideline untouched for a 62 yard TD and Brown bested Howard again for a TD on the next drive as well. Not wanting to be left out, Byron Jones was roasted on a deep ball TD pitch-and-catch to Mike Evans in the 4th. Noah Igbinoghene, another 2020 first rounder, is still a healthy scratch which is wild considering how badly Miami has struggled to defend the pass. Jerome Baker (whose status is up in the air for Sunday) flashed when he blew up Giovanni Bernard and sacked Brady to force a Bucs FG, but he was also responsible for several missed tackle attempts and didn't impress in coverage. Jaelin Phillips was able to get by OJ Howard on a bull rush and pick up Miami's only other sack of the game. The Dolphins didn't force a turnover and struggled to get off the field as Tampa punted only once. 

 

Miscellaneous- Miami only trailed 24-17 with seven minutes to play in the third quarter before Tampa really turned it into a laugher. Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play, gained 257 less yards than Tampa, went 2/7 on third down, and committed 5 penalties for 37 yards. 

 

Sunday October 17th- Week 6 Away Loss (***in London***) vs. Jacksonville (the Jaguars (current record: 1-5) have the 24th ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense, and 21st ranked special teams) by a score of 23-20:

 

Tua Tagovailoa (33/47 for 329 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 22 rushing yards)- Solid game in his return from the IR. Started the game really well, connecting with Waddle, Mack Hollins, and Gesicki on intermediate throws for first downs before hitting Waddle in the end zone for Miami's first score and a 7-0 lead. Tua had a perplexing play on a third-and-2 situation where he scrambled and could have easily picked up the first with his legs, but then floated a ball to no one instead (he made up for it on fourth-and-two with a well-executed throw to Hollins). Tua's performance was mistake-free otherwise, but he double-clutched and underthrew a ball to the left sideline for Waddle that Nevin Lawson intercepted. Overall, Tua got the ball out quickly and tried to stay on schedule with shorter throws. Miami's offensive line had its strongest performance of the season, not giving up a single sack.

 

Dolphins Running Game- As good as Gaskin (9 yards and 1.8 YPC as well as 5 receiving yards) was in the passing game last week, he was just as poor against Jacksonville. Gaskin dropped a screen pass in the red zone that could have resulted in seven points, forcing Miami to settle for a FG instead and later dropped another catchable ball on third down which led to a punt. Malcolm Brown (who led the team with 24 rushing yards on five carries) was stuffed on a pivotal fourth-and-one play that set up the Jags' game-winning field goal. 

 

Devante Parker- out injured again.

 

Jaylen Waddle (10 catches for 70 yards and 2 TDs)- Finally had his breakout game and showed off his speed in the red zone, beating his defender inside on a short crosser for his first TD catch and then winning the race to the pylon on a flat route for his second TD. His short-area quickness is incredible and his hands didn't fail him this game week, this was the player I think a lot of us expected to see when Miami drafted him. 

 

Preston Williams- out injured.

 

Mike Gesicki (8 catches for 115 yards)- Best performance of the season. Seemed like he was always open over the middle and took advantage of some soft spots in the Jags' zone coverage. Had a goofy play that made the high lowlights where he tried to hurdle a defender and nearly got broken in half, but Jacksonville didn't have an answer for him. Durham Smythe chipped in with 5 catches for 59 yards as well. 

 

Dolphins Run Defense- Missed six tackles by my count on a 24 yard James Robinson (73 yards, 4.3 YPC, and 1 TD as well as 20 receiving yards) run down to the one yard line and Robinson punched it in for the score on the next play. Miami also allowed Lawrence to break contain and either extend plays or pick up yards with his legs. 

 

Dolphins Pass Defense- I think Miami wins this game if either Xavien Howard or Byron Jones plays, but they didn't and the rest of the Dolphins allowed Trevor Lawrence (25/41 for 319 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INTs with 11 rushing yards) to put together the best performance of his rookie season and earn his first win to boot. Igbinoghene was out-jumped on a deep ball for a Marvin Jones TD just before halftime. Miami's LB crops allowed too much space between the hashmarks in coverage which kept the Jacksonville offense on the field. Brandon Jones missed an early tackle and allow Jamal Agnew to pick up 25+ yards after the catch. Emmanuel Ogbah batted down a Lawrence pass on third down, forcing the Jags to punt out of their own end zone and later sacked Lawrence as well, flying past the right tackle. Christian Wilkins came up with a huge momentum-shifting play, beating the same RT and strip-sacking his former Clemson teammate Lawrence for a turnover that prevented a Jacksonville scoring opportunity in the second half.

 

Miscellaneous- The Dolphins had Jacksonville behind the chains after the Ogbah sack and it was third-and-20 with less than 30 seconds to go. However, they played soft coverage, allowing the Jaguars to convert the first down and get into FG range for the winning kick. Miami continues to use Brissett in short yardage situations. Miami averaged 6.3 yards per play, went 9/17 on third down, and committed 7 penalties for 55 yards. 

 

Sunday October 24th- Week 7 Home Loss vs. Atlanta (the Falcons (current record: 3-3) have the 25th ranked offense, 30th ranked defense, and 31st ranked special teams) by a score of 30-28:

 

Tua Tagovailoa (32/40 for 291 yards, 4 passing TDs, and 2 INT with 29 rushing yards)- A second straight efficient start for Tua as he hit Waddle while rolling out to his left and then Gesicki on key third downs before fitting a throw into a tight window to Isaiah Ford for the first score of the game. He then connected with Gesicki for a TD, putting a nice arc on the pass so that only his man could get it. Tua has been effective on throws to the left either from the pocket or on the move while some of his less successful throws happen when he throws beyond the right hashmark (he's a southpaw so this makes sense, but something for the defense to anticipate!). He also executed the most impressive running play I've ever seen him make when he escaped pressure and then side-stepped Deion Jones (a pretty stellar athlete) so hard Jones fell down to move the chains. However, in the second half, Tagovailoa threw a brutal INT in the end zone as he telegraphed a throw to Durham Smythe and the Falcons safety read it the whole way. He then threw another crushing pick straight to LB Foyesade Oluokun (looked like a miscommunication with Waddle) who returned it all the way inside the Miami 15 yard line. Tua rebounded to lead an impressive go-ahead TD drive with just 2:27 remaining, but his earlier mistakes combined with the Dolphins defense cost Miami. The offensive line gave up just one sack in the game and mostly gave Tagovailoa enough time to throw.

 

Dolphins Running Game- Gaskin (67 yards and 4.5 YPC as well as 10 receiving yards and 1 TD) received the lion's share of carries and made a few defenders miss in the run game as usual. His most significant contribution was catching a short pass inside the ten yard line, evading the Atlanta DB with a spin move, and then walking into the end zone for the TD.

 

Devante Parker- out injured again. 

 

Jaylen Waddle (7 catches for 83 yards)- The Dolphins are starting to figure out better ways to use Waddle and are manufacturing touches for him that are closer to the LoS in recent weeks. Also have to shout him out for hustling back on the Falcons INT to tackle Oluokun and prevent a TD. 

 

Preston Williams (1 catch for 5 yards)- didn't look 100% in this game as he returned from injury. 

 

Mike Gesicki (7 receptions for 85 yards and 1 TD)- did his usual thing, working the middle of the field and high-pointing a ball over a helpless cornerback for a nice TD on National Tight Ends Day. 

 

Dolphins Run Defense- Allowed an easy rushing TD to Cordarrelle Patterson (60 yards, 4.3 YPC, and 1 TD) on a counter, but the run defense wasn't tested too often as Atlanta leaned on its passing attack. With Miami down by six points late, Ogbah made an excellent play to punch the football out on a Matt Ryan scramble and Nik Needham recovered at midfield.

 

Dolphins Pass Defense- This turned into the Matt Ryan (25/40 for 336 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 0 rushing yards) and Kyle Pitts (7 catches for 163 yards) show early and it continued that way as the Dolphins couldn't adapt. The Dolphins blitzed frequently, but Ryan made them pay and sustained drives consistently. I've alluded to it already, but there is just far too much room being given up by this Miami defense across the middle and in the deep areas of the field. Jevon Holland was beaten deep by Russell Gage on an easy pitch-and-catch for an Atlanta TD. Eric Rowe drew the tough assignment of covering Pitts one-on-one and it did not go well even though that's supposed to be Rowe's greatest strength, I think his play has fallen off a lot from where it was in 2020. It was a bit fluky, but Xavien Howard was in the right spot to rip the ball away from Calvin Ridley and set up his offense deep in Atlanta territory at the start of the fourth quarter. Holland rushed untouched off the right side and sacked Ryan for a huge loss early on, but that was Miami's only sack and they otherwise struggled to get pressure on the opposing QB (even a immobile one in Ryan) as they have all season.

 

Miscellaneous- Jason Sanders had one of his FG attempts blocked in the first half which wound up being significant given the final score. Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play, went 7/11 on third down, and committed 6 penalties for 44 yards. 

 

Sunday October 31st Preview- Week 8 Miami (current record: 1-6, the Dolphins have the 26th ranked offense, 25th ranked defense, and 25th ranked special teams) vs Buffalo (current record: 4-2, the Bills have the 10th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 11th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- Despite losing Dawson Knox to injury, I think Josh Allen and the offense need to air it out on Sunday and push the ball downfield. I could see this being one of those games we saw more often in 2020 where the Bills might only run the ball twice in a half and I anticipate Gabe Davis having an increased role in this match up with his size and ball skills. Miami has given up a league-worst 37 pass plays of 20 or more yards and just lost one of their veteran leaders in McCourty, their young safeties Brandon Jones and Jevon Holland can provide a big hit here and there, but have struggled in coverage (and in communicating with one another) in my opinion. Josh and Daboll need to target them and test them downfield. The offensive line should be able to give Josh the time to throw as Miami has just 12 sacks in seven games (Ogbah and Wilkins are the two players to keep an eye on and game plan for). Miami's defense essentially needs TFLs and turnovers to have a hope of getting off the field these days so staying on schedule and taking the easy completions/yards is huge this week. Miami isn't especially quick on defense and I think they have proven to be vulnerable in the wider areas of the field. And as we have seen in past matchups, I like our WRs against their DBs in man coverage.

 

Bills On Defense- Basically, just repeat the game plan from our Week 2 shutout of the Dolphins. Activate Epenesa + Basham and let our edge rushers get after Tua to make him uncomfortable. He's playing better recently, but he still doesn't challenge the defense vertically and he is liable to make a couple boneheaded decisions each game. Tua loves to throw the ball to his RBs and utilitze the screen game so the Bills need to diagnose and react quickly. Gaskin is a slippery, underrated player in both the run and pass game and I do think Miami has schemed up better ways to get the ball into Gesicki and Waddle's hands in their past few games so we need to take well and limit their YAC opportunities. It will be interesting to see if the Dolphins get Parker back and if Preston Williams is closer to 100% as they would have a good group of skill players when healthy. However, if the Bills can get pressure with four rushers and/or force Tua to go through his progressions and hang onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, Miami should be in for a long day on offense. 

 

On Special Teams- Jason Sanders is probably the second best kicker in the NFL behind Justin Tucker, he's pretty automatic. Michael Palardy has had a below average season so far, averaging less than 40 yards per punt in a few games recently. Jakeem Grant was traded away so Myles Gaskin and Jevon Holland are splitting return duties. 

 

Prediction: Bills 38, Fish 13

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Dont Stop Billeiving
Fuller out, added prediction

[YoloinOhio]

Sanders is 7/10 on FGs this year. Give me Bass all day as the 2nd best kicker in the league.

[freddyjj]

Thanks for doing this weekly.  I believe Fuller is not returning this week  as Finger still preventing him from practicing so not activated from IR yet.

 

23 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

It's been a long two weeks. Back to work

[Scott7975]

I scouted the Dolphins this week too.  Here is my analysis...

 

 

 

Not making fun of your post OP.  I enjoy reading them.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Scott7975

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Thanks for doing this weekly.  I believe Fuller is not returning this week  as Finger still preventing him from practicing so not activated from IR yet.

 

That’s correct - Flores said Fuller won’t be back 

[billybrew1]

I look forward to seeing our defense look ferocious again after we looked like pussycats vs. Tennessee. We have to find that edge again and perhaps this time keep it for good. Miami, Jax And New Jersey coming up I want to see the D shine.

On offense, we need improved OL play and a little bit better execution; especially in the redzone.

Im glad it's Squish the Fish week and that the Bills seem to readily raise their level of play for Miami. I expect and hope to win big. Get that Titan loss out of mind for now. I still can't Billieve we lost to a team that lost to the jets.... Any given Sunday I guess.

We need to be like the old patriot teams and win easy fast then work on facets of our game that need work, train young players and all the things the patriots got to do while easily winning the East all those years. We must improve every week now and get ready for the playoffs without burning out.We have to get that bye week to make it to the Super Bowl imho and then we have to really improve from where we are now to beat the NFC, imho. Tennessee was an eye opener. Sure, it just looked like we were kind of out of it after the emotional KC road win and sure we barely lost but that was a beat up Titan team and we looked weak in a lot of areas. Nose to the grind stone, Bills fans.....

 

Thanks for the long write-up.....

 

Bills gotta win big because it's Miami again, Bills 44 - Fish - 13. Tommy Sweeney with two TDs. Singletary, Davis, Kumerow with one each. On defense, another big game for Tremaine Edmunds Who quietly is having his finest season easily.

 

Go Bills! 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

13 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Sanders is 7/10 on FGs this year. Give me Bass all day as the 2nd best kicker in the league.

Good point Yolo! I was basing that mostly off his track record over the past few years, but you're right, he's having a down year so far (seems to be a trend down in Miami!). On current form, Bass >>>> Sanders all day.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

13 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Thanks for doing this weekly.  I believe Fuller is not returning this week  as Finger still preventing him from practicing so not activated from IR yet.

 

Thanks man! Good stuff, I thought I saw rumors of Fuller missing out, but didn't know it was official. I've updated the OP now, cheers!

 

Great news for the Bills as I do think opposing defenses will have their hands full trying to cover Parker, Waddle, Fuller, Williams, and Gesicki if and when they all get healthy at the same time. One less weapon for the Dolphins this week.