Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

[colin]

5 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

 

 

I just don't buy this at all.  Rosen was not cut out to be an NFL QB and while AJ might have not hit the same stats and super high level of play if he got cut and ended up somewhere else, he is a stud and would be a stud anywhere.

 

at the nfl level, small differences in skill and coaching/team cohesion can make big differences in results, but that's mainly due to most games being won or lost by a single score.  at an individual player level, there is no way on earth a character and talent like JA17 ends up like wet blanket Josh rosen.

[MarkyMannn]

18 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

Good point. I'll say at work, you know within a month, 2 tops, a good hire from a bad hire

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Mike Williams was consistently hungry-I believe he hit the 400 pound mark or pretty close to it at one point of his career. 

 

 

Hah!!! Fair point!

[clayboy54]

Like on here... we know within the first couple posts if a newbie is going to be a good part of the community or is just a troll, or a negative nancy. It's the DNA.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I mean, you know how this "who done what" conversation goes....

 

In every situation, I assume the QB drafted is one the coach also signed off on. The Cards saw only one year of said QB + coach and moved on.

 

Keim didn't draft Murray either. Cliff said very early that he'd be taking Kyler, I forget if it was before he got the job or right after.

 

Steve Wilks had no say in drafting Rosen. He was not cut out to be a Head Coach anymore than Rosen was to be a QB though. Indeed his failure was entirely more predictable. Kliff had said before he got an NFL job that he would take Kyler Murray #1 in an NFL draft. 

 

As for Keim, he is tight with the owner. He would have to really screw up to be fired. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think it's mostly confirmation bias. 

 

If they see traits they like in a rookie, and the rookie works out, they will be able to say "See, I always knew that guy would work out". 

 

If the same player doesn't work out they can blame it on reasons X,Y, and Z instead of admitting their 1st impression was wrong. 

 

Teams invest millions of dollars and untold hours investigating who to draft in the 1st round, yet there are constantly 1st round busts (and late round success stories). If it was that easy to decide if a player was going to make it or not that wouldn't happen as often as it does. 

[Albany,n.y.]

7 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

The problem with your premise is that no team would have cut Josh Allen loose after 1 season.  Only those wedded to stats didn't understand the talent that Josh showed in flashes of brilliance during his rookie year.  

 

Josh Rosen was bad his rookie year & what you're not taking into account is that the teams see their own players in practice every week & can tell a bust a lot faster than anyone watching him in games where you might only see him once a week or even worse the people who look at stats instead of seeing the player play & draw conclusions based on limited data.  

 

Rosen was bad enough for Arizona to draw one conclusion-he had to go ASAP.  I imagine one of the reasons Kingsbury got the job was because during the interview he stated he wanted to replace Rosen with Murray & the Cards management knew they had a guy who was thinking similar to them & didn't want to waste his time & possibly his only shot of being a successful NFL coach with a coach-killer at QB.  

Edited October 27, 2021 by Albany,n.y.

[Albany,n.y.]

29 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think it's mostly confirmation bias. 

 

If they see traits they like in a rookie, and the rookie works out, they will be able to say "See, I always knew that guy would work out". 

 

If the same player doesn't work out they can blame it on reasons X,Y, and Z instead of admitting their 1st impression was wrong. 

 

Teams invest millions of dollars and untold hours investigating who to draft in the 1st round, yet there are constantly 1st round busts (and late round success stories). If it was that easy to decide if a player was going to make it or not that wouldn't happen as often as it does. 

The biggest reason there are 1st round busts is that the NFL is so much faster than college that it is often hard to evaluate a player when he's playing in the slower speed NCAA against guys who will be working in an office after college & who could never play in the NFL.  It's such a small percentage of college players who are NFL worthy that until a college star goes against pros it is a tough judgement call how he'll respond to the NFL's speed.  

[TampaBillsJunkie]

I think you can tell "potential" immediately. A rookie might seem bad off the start but you need to take into account his coaching, the competition he played against, his mental acuity (willingness to learn) and his passion for the game.  The physical traits and abilities can be seen off the top but I think it's these aspects that separate who's going to make an impact.

 

Examples of this are Epenesa, who really seemed to struggle through his rookie year. He was undergoing a physical transformation and learning to play a new style of defense. It took awhile for the light to go on, but he seems to be making strides.  At first glance he seemed to be weak, slow and have limited pass rush moves, but that changed with coaching and his will to get better.

 

Josh has an incredible will to learn and get better. His deficiency was coaching and the level of competition he played against. At first glance he had amazing physical abilities but needed to work on the mental aspects of his game as well as his mechanics. 

 

Knox is another one who came out with a lot of "potential" but had not put it together until this year. I could go on and on, but I really don't think players immediately know who is going to shine. They do however know who has the desire, work ethic and physical ability to make it in the NFL. 

 

[jimmy10]

On 10/26/2021 at 1:55 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

I think you can tell. In Josh’s first preseason he threw some late TD to ray ray Mccloud (I think) that was a rocket and low and away. It was really impressive and made me think he’s got a chance. 
 

his first start against the chargers he had some rocket down the field too that my jaw dropped. 5 guys could make that throw 

I gave my tickets to a coworker buddy and his young son for Josh’s first preseason game. My coworker isn’t even a Bills fan, he’s a Ravens fan, and to this day he still talks about the moment Josh uncorked his first big pass. It wasn’t even a completion, but how the entire stadium just seized up and the air shifted when everyone there witnessed Josh’s ion cannon for the first time. 

[Patrick Duffy]

I don't think they would know anything "immediately". Nobody would. However I think players would get a good "read" on a rookie after a little time being around them and playing with said rookie.

 

Could maybe tell if a rookie has the "oooommmmmpppphhh" or "dat fire" along with how much heart can have and whatnot. But no, nothing will be known immediately.