Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

 

Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

 

 

 

Sometimes. But without question they can't always tell. Plenty of players simply aren't good enough yet (or they're borderline) when they arrive, and when that happens, the players don't know any better than the coaches and fans how well they'll develop. 

 

If the players had known for sure that Wyatt Teller was as good as he was going to become, they'd have told the coaches.

 

These guys arrive in the NFL at around 22 years old, give or take. There's a ton of development still left, physical, mental and emotional.

 

Sure, you can tell the Bruce Smiths and probably the Tajh Boyds on the other end (NYJets 6th rounder who didn't make it out of training camp and never took an NFL snap). 

 

Players have a lot more insight than we do into what a guy is ... but as little insight as we do into what that guy will become.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

8 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I was watching a football show Monday and an ex-player said that the other players can tell almost immediately in early practices whether a rookie has what it takes to play in the NFL.  The host brought up Josh Allen because some in the media were questioning him his 1st 2 years & the player mentioned how the Bills veterans were raving about Josh as soon as he arrived.  I remember not knowing much about Josh & after reading some of the comments in mini-camp, especially from Shady and other veterans, I was sold on Josh from his 1st camp in Buffalo based on his peer reviews.  

 

The old saying that a mistake drafting a QB sets a team back 5 years is no longer true.  While high QBs picked don't get jettisoned as rookies, teams are cutting ties a lot faster these days.  I think recent actions by teams that draft QBs in the 1st or 2nd round to some extent back up what the player said, although the teams give these guys at least a year or 2.  In recent years we've seen teams move on from QBs pretty quickly. 

 

In what will be seen as one of the smartest moves in draft history, the Cardinals recognized how bad Josh Rosen was after 1 season and did not hesitate to not only draft his replacement, but trade him for whatever they could get before his trade value fell to zero, as the Dolphins found out a year later.

 

Dwayne Haskins didn't even last 2 years in Washington after being the 15th pick of the 2019 draft.  Some of it was his attitude, but Ron Rivera had his fill of him in less than 1 year of coaching the guy.  He's currently on Pittsburgh as a project and based on other QBs history I don't expect him to be Rothlisberger's replacement.  .  

 

Paxton Lynch lasted only 2 seasons in Denver after being a 1st round (#26) pick.  He was cut when Denver chose Chad Kelly as their backup before the 2018 season. 

 

After Lynch, the next QB taken In 2016 was the Jets choice of Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round (pick 51).  He was with the team his 1st 2 season and they never let him on the field for even 1 down those 2 years.  He was then traded to the Raiders & cut by them 3 weeks later.  

 

Johnny Manziel lasted 2 years with Cleveland after being a 1st rounder.  He didn't even make it to camp in year 3, having been cut during the offseason aftre 2 years with the Browns. 

 

When the Bills signed Brian Brohm years ago it was after Brohm, a 2nd round pick, had been waived before the season by GB and nobody put in a waiver claim & he ended up on GB's practice squad.  It only took GB 1 year to realize Brohm was a bust.  

 

The reality is it may not be evident those 1st few days, but it doesn't take long for a team to know a hit from a bust.  Even though I've focused on QBs it also applies to other positions.  I remember hearing an ex-Bill saying how that almost from day 1 of camp the team knew that 5th rounder Kyle Williams was a much better player than 1st rounder John McCargo.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I saw that. It was Maurice Jones-Drew.  Very interesting comment.  I think he was initially talking about the Phins’ players’ lack of belief in Tua, but I might be misremembering it.

[Thurman#1]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There's a lot of moving parts to whether a player will make it in the NFL:

1) innate athleticism

2) strength

3) level of football skill at present

4) coachability

5) does he put in the physical effort in practice and the weight room

6) is he a "student of the game"

7) competitiveness

'8) injury resistance

 

My guess is there are a lot of guys who eventually make it, that are not seen as "having what it takes" initially because maybe the strength and football skill or even the athleticism aren't where they need to be.   Lorenzo Alexander, Justin Zimmer etc.    But some of them are coachable and put in the effort and study and are competitive in a good way to improve, and they keep at it until they do. 

 

But I'm guessing for every 2 players in that category who make it, there are 10 who don't, and the vet who says "yeah, I could always see he'd make it" are using 20/20 hindsight.

 

The players who have it all, or maybe are missing some skill or some strength but have the work ethic and the attitude to go with off-the-charts athleticism, Sure, I bet you can tell.

 

The injury resistance thing is the wild-card.  There are probably guys who "have what it takes" and never develop because they keep getting injured.  On the other hand, when you have a guy like Kahale Warring, I gotta wonder if the IR list becomes a place you stash a guy with off-the-charts athleticism, hoping the lightbulb will finally turn on for the rest.

 

 

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

 

 

 

Yup.

 

And I'd probably add a few extra to your list.

 

9) Scheme fit for what that team requires

10) Susceptibility to career traps and killers like drug addiction, alcohol addiction, yes man addiction, posse addiction ... look at Aaron Hernandez, though CTE may have been a factor there.

11) Consistency of hunger after getting the big money (look at OL Mike Williams in Buffalo, he was physically far better than he needed to be, but never cared enough after getting the big contract)

12) Personal fit in the locker room and  with the coaches (look at Jonathan Martin, a massive mis-fit with Incognito and that locker room)

 

I'm moving towards smaller and smaller factors here, but basically you're right, a lot of moving parts.

 

Plenty of times nobody knows, including the players, until it becomes obvious down the road.

 

36 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Sometimes I hear players say something like, "I knew his rookie season before he ever stepped out onto the field that he was gonna make it."

 

And I don't believe it.  I think it's 20-20 hindsight revisionism.   I don't think players are as astute about rookies as they pretend to be.  

 

Let me just mention Steve Deberg.  When he was a practice squad player in 1977, I doubt if any of his teammates expected him succeed in the NFL.  And I doubt if he changed anyone's minds when he was San Francisco's starter in 1978 and completed less than half his passes for a season long passer rating of 40!    I'm sure his teammates thought what I thought: "This guy sucks and is gonna be selling insurance soon."

 

Yet 12 years later, DeBerg attained the 3rd best passer ratings in the NFL, and the lowest INT percentage in league history, when he led the Chiefs to an 11-5 record.   

While DeBerg never became a great quarterback, I really don't think any of his 1977 or 1978 teammates predicted even his moderate success.   

 

Rookie performance doesn't always presage future performance.  

 

 

Great post. 

 

DeBerg is an excellent example, and I think you're dead on about hindsight.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Thurman#1

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

I mean, you know how this "who done what" conversation goes....

 

In every situation, I assume the QB drafted is one the coach also signed off on. The Cards saw only one year of said QB + coach and moved on.

 

Keim didn't draft Murray either. Cliff said very early that he'd be taking Kyler, I forget if it was before he got the job or right after.

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

He didn't do what a lot of GMs, including some past Bills GMs did-failed to recognize a mistake they made & doubled down (see Whaley-Sammy Watkins trade trying to make EJ into an NFL QB).  Over the years we've had GMs (and maybe some of the coaches too) who made personnel moves indicating they weren't willing to admit a mistake.   

Keim did something almost never done-dropped a 1st round QB after 1 season & drafted another QB.  That move saved his job & made them into the contender they are today.  They didn't flounder 3 years like the Jets, who continue to flounder, did when their 1st round QB of the class of 2018 didn't pan out.  Keim did the right thing-moved on quickly from a big mistake.  It saved his job & changed the entire projectory of the franchise.  

[Albany,n.y.]

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

11) Consistency of hunger after getting the big money (look at OL Mike Williams in Buffalo, he was physically far better than he needed to be, but never cared enough after getting the big contract)

 

Mike Williams was consistently hungry-I believe he hit the 400 pound mark or pretty close to it at one point of his career. 

[The Wiz]

9 hours ago, WhoTom said:

I think of it like the dating scene. It may take a few years to decide that she's "The One," but probably just a few dates to figure out that she's not.

 

Great analogy. 👍 

[Utah John]

3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

He didn't do what a lot of GMs, including some past Bills GMs did-failed to recognize a mistake they made & doubled down (see Whaley-Sammy Watkins trade trying to make EJ into an NFL QB).  Over the years we've had GMs (and maybe some of the coaches too) who made personnel moves indicating they weren't willing to admit a mistake.   

Keim did something almost never done-dropped a 1st round QB after 1 season & drafted another QB.  That move saved his job & made them into the contender they are today.  They didn't flounder 3 years like the Jets, who continue to flounder, did when their 1st round QB of the class of 2018 didn't pan out.  Keim did the right thing-moved on quickly from a big mistake.  It saved his job & changed the entire projectory of the franchise.  

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

[papazoid]

anyone can immediately form a first impression

 

most of the time it stays that way.....but not always

[Captain Hindsight]

14 hours ago, without a drought said:

Hindsight says...

You called? 

[Captain Hindsight]

3 hours ago, Utah John said:

I think it didn't really matter to the Cardinals whether Rosen was good or not.  The new coach saw that Kyler Murray was the QB he wanted, so he basically staked his job and his career betting on Murray, being hired with the demand that the team draft Murray.  That's worked out well, to put it mildly.  So Rosen was expendable, and the Dolphins traded a second round pick for him.  Which is amazingly even worse than Cleveland trading a third for Tyrod Taylor -- worse in that the Dolphins gave up more, and worse in that Rosen is much worse than Taylor.

 

IIRC, Rosen wasn't that terrible in his only year in Arizona.  He had a terrible team around him so he was hard to evaluate.  Then he went to Miami, a new team and another bad team.  He's continued to bounce around, never getting into a good situation with a QB coach, offensive coordinator, and HC before being kicked down the road to another landing spot.  If Josh Allen had been cut loose by the Bills after one year, he could have had a similar career, never getting the support and coaching he needed to become a great player.  

Rosen was awful in AZ. Like Peterman with a better arm. He only played because Bradford was so bad they had to cut him. 
 

i watched a bunch of his games before they drafted Murray and I would have moved in too. Dude had no shot. The fact Miami gave up a second rounder is astounding. Once that happened I was not at all worried about Miami. That FO didn’t have a clue

[oldmanfan]

I suspect they know pretty quickly if a guy has to work habits necessary to succeed.

[GunnerBill]

I think in most cases, yes. Within a few practices vet players can tell whether a rookie can play immediately, has some skills but needs development, or is just flat out not suited for the NFL. 

 

There will always be outliers, of course there will, but in the majority of cases I reckon if you polled a group of 5 senior vets on each roster at the end of training camp about the rookies on their team that year and then re-visited it at the end of the rookie deals of those players you would find in 90% of cases the vets nailed it. 

[auburnbillsbacker]

They can tell.  When we drafted John McCargo in the 1st and Kyle Williams in the 5th it was apparent on day 1 that Kyle was better.  

[mannc]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think in most cases, yes. Within a few practices vet players can tell whether a rookie can play immediately, has some skills but needs development, or is just flat out not suited for the NFL. 

 

There will always be outliers, of course there will, but in the majority of cases I reckon if you polled a group of 5 senior vets on each roster at the end of training camp about the rookies on their team that year and then re-visited it at the end of the rookie deals of those players you would find in 90% of cases the vets nailed it. 

I agree. Justin Herbert is another example. He graduated early from high school and participated in Oregon’s spring practices as an 18-year old. The upcoming seniors and juniors were all talking about him, saying he needed to start right away. Unfortunately, it took Mark Helfrich half a wasted season to figure that out.  I’m guessing the guys on the Chargers were saying the same thing last season when Anthony Lynn was rolling out Tyrod as the starter…

Edited October 27, 2021 by mannc

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I agree. Justin Herbert is another example. He graduated early from high school and participated in Oregon’s spring practices as an 18-year old. The upcoming seniors and juniors were all talking about him, saying he needed to start right away. Unfortunately, it took Mark Helfrich half a wasted season to figure that out.  I’m guessing the guys on the Chargers were saying the same thing last season when Anthony Lynn was rolling out Tyrod as the starter…

 

I think Tyrod only started one game didn't he? Wasn't the accidental punctured lung like week 2? As I recall from Hard Knocks the biggest issue Herbert had in camp his rookie year was learning to take snaps under centre, he had some snap fumbling issues and that likely led to them deciding to roll with Tyrod week 1. I think in every other facet it was pretty clear who the more talented player was. Herbert was getting in the lineup within 3 or 4 weeks whatever happened. 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Tyrod only started one game didn't he? Wasn't the accidental punctured lung like week 2? As I recall from Hard Knocks the biggest issue Herbert had in camp his rookie year was learning to take snaps under centre, he had some snap fumbling issues and that likely led to them deciding to roll with Tyrod week 1. I think in every other facet it was pretty clear who the more talented player was. Herbert was getting in the lineup within 3 or 4 weeks whatever happened. 

Lynn had every intention of playing Tyrod for half the season or more.  Even after Tyrod was hurt and Herbert was lighting it up, Lynn said Tyrod was “still the starter”. That’s when I knew he would be fired.

[SF Bills Fan]

I remember Jim Kelly was pretty enthusiastic about Josh Allen early on. He was never really too happy about guys like Manuel or Peterman. They see stuff none of us fans can. 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, mannc said:

Lynn had every intention of playing Tyrod for half the season or more.  Even after Tyrod was hurt and Herbert was lighting it up, Lynn said Tyrod was “still the starter”. That’s when I knew he would be fired.

 

I mean that would have been criminal. I think the reality would have hit him sooner than halfway through the season, but yea, coaches who want to sit talented young Quarterbacks behind bad Quarterbacks are fools. McDermott took half a game to realise that in 2018. It is one thing if you are like San Fran this year and have Garoppolo who is at least a serviceable NFL starter when healthy. Fine, sit your guy. But sitting guys to start the likes of Tyrod Taylor and Nate Peterman and the corpse of Andy Dalton's career etc... it gets you nowhere. You are better off getting your rookie out there and letting them take the lumps even if they look totally unprepared. 

[chris heff]

This is kind of an interesting exercise, don’t know if it’s valid. I wonder how many Patriot’s players at their 2000 training camp thought Brady was going to be the greatest of all time?