Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

[WhoTom]

38 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

The player's innate talent  doesnt shift that drastically dependent on level of play.   A player's experience between his last year of college and rookie mini camp is almost identical.   The OP said veterans knew Josh had it "as soon as he arrived."   As such, the question isnt about college success as you say above, rather their potential in the NFL when they arrive.  College had nothing to do with it.

 

You're right - my mistake. The meat of the OP was more about a player's first couple of years, and that's the part I remembered when I was posting, but looking again I see more references to day 1 and camps at the beginning and end.

 

 

 

[Da webster guy]

Thats very interesting about the Cards cutting Rosen loose so quickly and getting Kyler the next year.  

And look at em now....

[Rico]

I think Troy Vincent had JP figured out.

[ticketssince61]

I think it is true in most areas of life.

 

You get a new colleague you can generally tell right away if it is a good hire or a dud. 

 

I would go to my kids back-to-school nights and in just 5 minutes could generally tell if the teacher was good or the year was going to be a wipeout

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by ticketssince61

[DrW]

For the most part, it just seems to be selective memory. You remember the correct predictions and overlook the ones that went wrong. Just one example: Josh Rosen's 2018 Arizona teammates glowing praise of Josh Rosen.

https://www.espn.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/30766/josh-rosen-a-favorite-among-teammates-who-say-hes-not-weird

Edited October 26, 2021 by DrW

[DaggersEOD]

1 minute ago, DrW said:

For the most part, it just seems to be selective memory. You remember the correct predictions and overlook the others. Just one example: Josh Rosen's 2018 Arizona teammates glowing praise of Josh Rosen.

https://www.espn.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/30766/josh-rosen-a-favorite-among-teammates-who-say-hes-not-weird

I think that’s more being a professional and publicly supporting your team and team’s management. 
 

I believe the OP and the player he referenced (I think I saw the same clip) was saying in the locker room, behind closed doors, the players can tell right away. 
 

They may say supportive things in public, but in the locker room, the real feelings are expressed. 

[DrW]

11 minutes ago, DaggersEOD said:

 

They may say supportive things in public, but in the locker room, the real feelings are expressed. 

 

All the veterans' quotes the OP provided regarding Josh Allen were also made in public. How do you know what the veterans thought about Allen in private or in the locker room?

Edited October 26, 2021 by DrW

[Jauronimo]

5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Some of us here were speaking of this phenomenon throughout Tyrod Taylor's tenure as a Bill.

Dude doesn't have it, dude ain't ever gonna have it, dude still doesn't have it now years after being dumped by the Bills.

Of course, that didn't stop the vocal majority here from attacking us and supporting Tyrod, simply b/c he was the QB of the Bills (at the time).

 

Yes, I think everyone involved in the game at the NFL level knows who has it and who doesn't relatively quickly.

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

 

 

Why are you still raging against Tyrod?

[Brand J]

I remember hearing that Maybin was getting rag dolled by Ed Wang in his first camp and the Bills brass was nervous about the pick.

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

Thats very interesting about the Cards cutting Rosen loose so quickly and getting Kyler the next year.  

And look at em now....

They also let the coach go who drafted Josh Rosen...so apparently they knew the coach didn't have it, either.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I think it depends on the position but the only one that gets any attention is QB. I think there is some sort of silliness where people are still convinced you need years to find out about a QB. To me, you need about 6 games to see if a QB “has it” Are there ever outliers? Sure. But it’s not the 70s anymore. All the rules are there to help the offense. I’m not saying a guy has to be great in the first 6 games. But you should be able to see flashes of a guy that can elevate a team and make plays above the average replacement level back up. If you don’t see it, you are in trouble.

[Orlando Buffalo]

In the NFL most of the players are  an elite physical specimen therefore the mental part of the game is most important and you can tell the guys who are willing to work to be great. Josh is elite physically and mentally. Basically if once you get to the league you are not truly dedicated to your craft you will not last long.

[Simon]

They know.

[Freddie's Dead]

Logan Thomas says hi.

[benderbender]

6 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Some of us here were speaking of this phenomenon throughout Tyrod Taylor's tenure as a Bill.

Dude doesn't have it, dude ain't ever gonna have it, dude still doesn't have it now years after being dumped by the Bills.

Of course, that didn't stop the vocal majority here from attacking us and supporting Tyrod, simply b/c he was the QB of the Bills (at the time).

 

Yes, I think everyone involved in the game at the NFL level knows who has it and who doesn't relatively quickly.

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

 

 

I felt the exact same about Fitzpatrick during his second season as starter. Clearly his ceiling was what it was going to be and he wasn’t going to develop further. But he, like Tyrod, was such a good guy, we couldn’t see past it. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Thats very interesting about the Cards cutting Rosen loose so quickly and getting Kyler the next year.  

And look at em now....

The implement of the rookie wage scale quickly flipped the script as far as being able to move on from 1st round QB's you know are pry not going to work out.  You're not as financially tied to the player and it makes that player easier to trade.  Unfortunately, it often puts pressure on a rookie QB to produce immediate results.

[DaggersEOD]

2 hours ago, DrW said:

 

All the veterans' quotes the OP provided regarding Josh Allen were also made in public. How do you know what the veterans thought about Allen in private or in the locker room?

I guess what I'm saying is that regardless of what is said publicly, I believe that the locker room can usually tell when someone has it or not. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I was watching a football show Monday and an ex-player said that the other players can tell almost immediately in early practices whether a rookie has what it takes to play in the NFL.  The host brought up Josh Allen because some in the media were questioning him his 1st 2 years & the player mentioned how the Bills veterans were raving about Josh as soon as he arrived.  I remember not knowing much about Josh & after reading some of the comments in mini-camp, especially from Shady and other veterans, I was sold on Josh from his 1st camp in Buffalo based on his peer reviews.  

 

The old saying that a mistake drafting a QB sets a team back 5 years is no longer true.  While high QBs picked don't get jettisoned as rookies, teams are cutting ties a lot faster these days.  I think recent actions by teams that draft QBs in the 1st or 2nd round to some extent back up what the player said, although the teams give these guys at least a year or 2.  In recent years we've seen teams move on from QBs pretty quickly. 

 

In what will be seen as one of the smartest moves in draft history, the Cardinals recognized how bad Josh Rosen was after 1 season and did not hesitate to not only draft his replacement, but trade him for whatever they could get before his trade value fell to zero, as the Dolphins found out a year later.

 

Dwayne Haskins didn't even last 2 years in Washington after being the 15th pick of the 2019 draft.  Some of it was his attitude, but Ron Rivera had his fill of him in less than 1 year of coaching the guy.  He's currently on Pittsburgh as a project and based on other QBs history I don't expect him to be Rothlisberger's replacement.  .  

 

Paxton Lynch lasted only 2 seasons in Denver after being a 1st round (#26) pick.  He was cut when Denver chose Chad Kelly as their backup before the 2018 season. 

 

After Lynch, the next QB taken In 2016 was the Jets choice of Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round (pick 51).  He was with the team his 1st 2 season and they never let him on the field for even 1 down those 2 years.  He was then traded to the Raiders & cut by them 3 weeks later.  

 

Johnny Manziel lasted 2 years with Cleveland after being a 1st rounder.  He didn't even make it to camp in year 3, having been cut during the offseason aftre 2 years with the Browns. 

 

When the Bills signed Brian Brohm years ago it was after Brohm, a 2nd round pick, had been waived before the season by GB and nobody put in a waiver claim & he ended up on GB's practice squad.  It only took GB 1 year to realize Brohm was a bust.  

 

The reality is it may not be evident those 1st few days, but it doesn't take long for a team to know a hit from a bust.  Even though I've focused on QBs it also applies to other positions.  I remember hearing an ex-Bill saying how that almost from day 1 of camp the team knew that 5th rounder Kyle Williams was a much better player than 1st rounder John McCargo. 

 

There's a lot of moving parts to whether a player will make it in the NFL:

1) innate athleticism

2) strength

3) level of football skill at present

4) coachability

5) does he put in the physical effort in practice and the weight room

6) is he a "student of the game"

7) competitiveness

'8) injury resistance

 

My guess is there are a lot of guys who eventually make it, that are not seen as "having what it takes" initially because maybe the strength and football skill or even the athleticism aren't where they need to be.   Lorenzo Alexander, Justin Zimmer etc.    But some of them are coachable and put in the effort and study and are competitive in a good way to improve, and they keep at it until they do. 

 

But I'm guessing for every 2 players in that category who make it, there are 10 who don't, and the vet who says "yeah, I could always see he'd make it" are using 20/20 hindsight.

 

The players who have it all, or maybe are missing some skill or some strength but have the work ethic and the attitude to go with off-the-charts athleticism, Sure, I bet you can tell.

 

The injury resistance thing is the wild-card.  There are probably guys who "have what it takes" and never develop because they keep getting injured.  On the other hand, when you have a guy like Kahale Warring, I gotta wonder if the IR list becomes a place you stash a guy with off-the-charts athleticism, hoping the lightbulb will finally turn on for the rest.

 

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

They also let the coach go who drafted Josh Rosen...so apparently they knew the coach didn't have it, either.

 

I woulda thought it was the General Manager who drafted Josh Rosen....Steve Keim...and Oh, Hey, he's still there!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I remember hearing that Maybin was getting rag dolled by Ed Wang in his first camp and the Bills brass was nervous about the pick.

 

Fun fact.  Maybin was drafted in 2009.  Ed Wang was drafted in 2010.

[hondo in seattle]

Sometimes I hear players say something like, "I knew his rookie season before he ever stepped out onto the field that he was gonna make it."

 

And I don't believe it.  I think it's 20-20 hindsight revisionism.   I don't think players are as astute about rookies as they pretend to be.  

 

Let me just mention Steve Deberg.  When he was a practice squad player in 1977, I doubt if any of his teammates expected him succeed in the NFL.  And I doubt if he changed anyone's minds when he was San Francisco's starter in 1978 and completed less than half his passes for a season long passer rating of 40!    I'm sure his teammates thought what I thought: "This guy sucks and is gonna be selling insurance soon."

 

Yet 12 years later, DeBerg attained the 3rd best passer ratings in the NFL, and the lowest INT percentage in league history, when he led the Chiefs to an 11-5 record.   

While DeBerg never became a great quarterback, I really don't think any of his 1977 or 1978 teammates predicted even his moderate success.   

 

Rookie performance doesn't always presage future performance.