Do players know immediately if a rookie is good or bad?

[Albany,n.y.]

I was watching a football show Monday and an ex-player said that the other players can tell almost immediately in early practices whether a rookie has what it takes to play in the NFL.  The host brought up Josh Allen because some in the media were questioning him his 1st 2 years & the player mentioned how the Bills veterans were raving about Josh as soon as he arrived.  I remember not knowing much about Josh & after reading some of the comments in mini-camp, especially from Shady and other veterans, I was sold on Josh from his 1st camp in Buffalo based on his peer reviews.  

 

The old saying that a mistake drafting a QB sets a team back 5 years is no longer true.  While high QBs picked don't get jettisoned as rookies, teams are cutting ties a lot faster these days.  I think recent actions by teams that draft QBs in the 1st or 2nd round to some extent back up what the player said, although the teams give these guys at least a year or 2.  In recent years we've seen teams move on from QBs pretty quickly. 

 

In what will be seen as one of the smartest moves in draft history, the Cardinals recognized how bad Josh Rosen was after 1 season and did not hesitate to not only draft his replacement, but trade him for whatever they could get before his trade value fell to zero, as the Dolphins found out a year later.

 

Dwayne Haskins didn't even last 2 years in Washington after being the 15th pick of the 2019 draft.  Some of it was his attitude, but Ron Rivera had his fill of him in less than 1 year of coaching the guy.  He's currently on Pittsburgh as a project and based on other QBs history I don't expect him to be Rothlisberger's replacement.  .  

 

Paxton Lynch lasted only 2 seasons in Denver after being a 1st round (#26) pick.  He was cut when Denver chose Chad Kelly as their backup before the 2018 season. 

 

After Lynch, the next QB taken In 2016 was the Jets choice of Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round (pick 51).  He was with the team his 1st 2 season and they never let him on the field for even 1 down those 2 years.  He was then traded to the Raiders & cut by them 3 weeks later.  

 

Johnny Manziel lasted 2 years with Cleveland after being a 1st rounder.  He didn't even make it to camp in year 3, having been cut during the offseason aftre 2 years with the Browns. 

 

When the Bills signed Brian Brohm years ago it was after Brohm, a 2nd round pick, had been waived before the season by GB and nobody put in a waiver claim & he ended up on GB's practice squad.  It only took GB 1 year to realize Brohm was a bust.  

 

The reality is it may not be evident those 1st few days, but it doesn't take long for a team to know a hit from a bust.  Even though I've focused on QBs it also applies to other positions.  I remember hearing an ex-Bill saying how that almost from day 1 of camp the team knew that 5th rounder Kyle Williams was a much better player than 1st rounder John McCargo.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Warcodered]

I think to a certain degree it's probably true. They can probably tell if a guy doesn't have it, but I'd think there's some flexibility on whether a guy is average, good, or great.

[Captain Hindsight]

I think you can tell. In Josh’s first preseason he threw some late TD to ray ray Mccloud (I think) that was a rocket and low and away. It was really impressive and made me think he’s got a chance. 
 

his first start against the chargers he had some rocket down the field too that my jaw dropped. 5 guys could make that throw 

[Reader]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I think to a certain degree it's probably true. They can probably tell if a guy doesn't have it, but I'd think there's some flexibility on whether a guy is average, good, or great.

 

Yeah, I think the Lorax's of the NFL could be misjudged.

That being said, I think I read that some players told Marrone that EJ wasn't good enough after their first year. (Which probably led to Marrone telling Whaley to fire him at training camp since I imagine the argument was about needing a better QB)

[MJS]

Perhaps, but I'm sure there are countless examples of players and coaches being wrong.

[Don Otreply]

I suspect that a high percentage of the time it takes about one season or less to know if a player has “it” to what ever degree they may have “it”,

 

Aaron “give back that money” Maybin , as an example…,

 

 as we all know, there are exceptions to the rule, as is said. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Don Otreply

[Nextmanup]

14 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I was watching a football show Monday and an ex-player said that the other players can tell almost immediately in early practices whether a rookie has what it takes to play in the NFL.  The host brought up Josh Allen because some in the media were questioning him his 1st 2 years & the player mentioned how the Bills veterans were raving about Josh as soon as he arrived.  I remember not knowing much about Josh & after reading some of the comments in mini-camp, especially from Shady and other veterans, I was sold on Josh from his 1st camp in Buffalo based on his peer reviews.  

 

The old saying that a mistake drafting a QB sets a team back 5 years is no longer true.  While high QBs picked don't get jettisoned as rookies, teams are cutting ties a lot faster these days.  I think recent actions by teams that draft QBs in the 1st or 2nd round to some extent back up what the player said, although the teams give these guys at least a year or 2.  In recent years we've seen teams move on from QBs pretty quickly. 

 

In what will be seen as one of the smartest moves in draft history, the Cardinals recognized how bad Josh Rosen was after 1 season and did not hesitate to not only draft his replacement, but trade him for whatever they could get before his trade value fell to zero, as the Dolphins found out a year later.

 

Dwayne Haskins didn't even last 2 years in Washington after being the 15th pick of the 2019 draft.  Some of it was his attitude, but Ron Rivera had his fill of him in less than 1 year of coaching the guy.  He's currently on Pittsburgh as a project and based on other QBs history I don't expect him to be Rothlisberger's replacement.  .  

 

Paxton Lynch lasted only 2 seasons in Denver after being a 1st round (#26) pick.  He was cut when Denver chose Chad Kelly as their backup before the 2018 season. 

 

After Lynch, the next QB taken In 2016 was the Jets choice of Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round (pick 51).  He was with the team his 1st 2 season and they never let him on the field for even 1 down those 2 years.  He was then traded to the Raiders & cut by them 3 weeks later.  

 

Johnny Manziel lasted 2 years with Cleveland after being a 1st rounder.  He didn't even make it to camp in year 3, having been cut during the offseason aftre 2 years with the Browns. 

 

When the Bills signed Brian Brohm years ago it was after Brohm, a 2nd round pick, had been waived before the season by GB and nobody put in a waiver claim & he ended up on GB's practice squad.  It only took GB 1 year to realize Brohm was a bust.  

 

The reality is it may not be evident those 1st few days, but it doesn't take long for a team to know a hit from a bust.  Even though I've focused on QBs it also applies to other positions.  I remember hearing an ex-Bill saying how that almost from day 1 of camp the team knew that 5th rounder Kyle Williams was a much better player than 1st rounder John McCargo.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some of us here were speaking of this phenomenon throughout Tyrod Taylor's tenure as a Bill.

Dude doesn't have it, dude ain't ever gonna have it, dude still doesn't have it now years after being dumped by the Bills.

Of course, that didn't stop the vocal majority here from attacking us and supporting Tyrod, simply b/c he was the QB of the Bills (at the time).

 

Yes, I think everyone involved in the game at the NFL level knows who has it and who doesn't relatively quickly.

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

 

 

[WhoTom]

I think of it like the dating scene. It may take a few years to decide that she's "The One," but probably just a few dates to figure out that she's not.

 

[jahnyc]

I remember there was a lot of chatter about Maybin looking awful overall in his first training camp.  I do think busts can be identified early on, with others just needing time to develop, so not true in all cases for first year players that start off poorly.  

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

31 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Some of us here were speaking of this phenomenon throughout Tyrod Taylor's tenure as a Bill.

Dude doesn't have it, dude ain't ever gonna have it, dude still doesn't have it now years after being dumped by the Bills.

Of course, that didn't stop the vocal majority here from attacking us and supporting Tyrod, simply b/c he was the QB of the Bills (at the time).

 

Yes, I think everyone involved in the game at the NFL level knows who has it and who doesn't relatively quickly.

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

 

 

I liked Tyrod, and still do, but I think I didn't go into the TT years with huge expectations.  He was respectable, had some moments worth being excited about, and gave us a chance in any given game.  After all the years of predictably garbage offense, it was kind of normalizing to feel at least hopeful that our offense 'could' score.  I liked Fitz, but Gailey's offense still felt like an ongoing gimmick that popped and fizzed all over the place. 

[Rochesterfan]

55 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Some of us here were speaking of this phenomenon throughout Tyrod Taylor's tenure as a Bill.

Dude doesn't have it, dude ain't ever gonna have it, dude still doesn't have it now years after being dumped by the Bills.

Of course, that didn't stop the vocal majority here from attacking us and supporting Tyrod, simply b/c he was the QB of the Bills (at the time).

 

Yes, I think everyone involved in the game at the NFL level knows who has it and who doesn't relatively quickly.

 

That's nothing unique to football; I think it applies to many ways of life.

 

 

 

Although I agree that it was obvious that Tyrod was less than ideal - I am not sure that it really applies to this.

 

Many players were on his side including being very upset when Tyrod lost his job to Peterman.  I think the general consensus amount players was he was by far the best on the team and he did things to help a team not lose.  He was not a winner in that sense, but he was not EJ or Nate.

 

I think the players felt about Tyrod about what the majority of the fan base felt - he can captain the ship, but he isn’t winning any wars.  You can do better, but you can do worse.  I am pretty sure that is still the consensus as he got a chance in Cleveland to start until injured and a rookie took over, SD/LA where he got shot #3 until Herbert took over, and now Houston with shot #4 until another injury hit.

 

If the players and coaches see him as a complete bust (aka dude doesn’t have it) - he would not keep getting chances and players wouldn’t defend him.

 

 

[thenorthremembers]

If players could tell immediately if a another player was good or bad, they'd all be GMs. 

[Bing Bong]

I imagine what veterans really look for, at least in non-QB positions are intangibles. They've seen enough busts to know athleticism and talent isn't what separates them from the rookies. I'm sure a lot would have spotted LoRax as one of them dudes that would stick around.

 

QB's are probably much more simple, I'm sure they know the right zip on the ball when they see it.. after that they just need to see progress not perfection. I remember seeing DeAndre Hopkins visibly impressed with Murray finding him on one play last week.

 

I think what (good) GM's have been catching up on recently is taking the pulse of the locker room. And what makes Beane and McDermott work as well as they do is their teamwork.

 

It also helps that new quarterbacks seem to be as good as they've ever been. Before that the NFL had quite a serious quarterback lull for like a 10 year stretch.

[ngbills]

I would say yes and no. At every level this changes and there are always those that adjust faster than others. What also happens is some dont get the same opportunities. That is why you will see guys blossom a few years into careers or even older guys that seemingly are way better. 

 

But the "it" factor concept? Not sure how real it is at the pro level. Most of the guys that get this far have or had the it factor. I think it becomes being in the right situation more often than not. 

 

And I will end with - have you ever heard from players or coaches that player xyz sucks, doesn't have it, etc. No. Its always glowing reviews. We heard it from EJ Manuel to Nate Peterman and basically everyone else. 

[WhoTom]

31 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

If players could tell immediately if a another player was good or bad, they'd all be GMs. 

 

Not necessarily. GMs evaluate college players, not rookies. College success doesn't always translate to NFL success. The OP was about knowing whether rookies have it.

 

 

[without a drought]

Hindsight says...

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I think the OPs point of teams moving on from mistakes at the QB position is well taken. We see that more and more. Now part of it of course is regime change and wanting their guy. But as the OP stated its a win now league and you can't sacrifice your franchise and the other talent you have on the team for multiple years. 

 

[thenorthremembers]

26 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Not necessarily. GMs evaluate college players, not rookies. College success doesn't always translate to NFL success. The OP was about knowing whether rookies have it.

 

 

The player's innate talent  doesnt shift that drastically dependent on level of play.   A player's experience between his last year of college and rookie mini camp is almost identical.   The OP said veterans knew Josh had it "as soon as he arrived."   As such, the question isnt about college success as you say above, rather their potential in the NFL when they arrive.  College had nothing to do with it.

[Pete]

Players can tell.  I mean ever play pickup basketball open gym?  You can tell after one game or two who you want on your team, and who you need to stop on other team

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think to a certain degree it's probably true. They can probably tell if a guy doesn't have it, but I'd think there's some flexibility on whether a guy is average, good, or great.

I remember an old "notes from camp" story from Pro Football Weekly shortly after the Bills opened camp in 2009. The scuttlebutt was that Aaron Maybin looked horrible and like a guy who was incapable of succeeding in the NFL. People here ripped the piece because it was so early in his career, but in retrospect it was spot on: it was evident from the get-go that he couldn't compete against NFL players.