Will lack of Tough Games hurt the Bills?

[Patrick Duffy]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well one concerning thing on your list of who we face...we have only played 3 of those teams, and we lost 2 of them.  Pitt (loss), KC (win), Tenn (loss).  We still have TB to face too.  

 

I am as big of an optimist on the Bills this year as there is, I mean I truly believe we can make and win a SB this year.  However, it is a little concerning that of the 7 teams you listed, we have played 3 of them and are 1-2 in those games.  

 

 

Well speaking for myself I'm not concerned the least bit. I try considering of the 2 losses, 1st game of season loss happens, however if they played today I feel Bills win by 10.  As for Titians loss, it was a very close battle that Bills kinda shot themselves with the KR for TD wiped away, then the QB sneak where Allen slipped along with blocking could have been better. imo if they spread that out instead of running the sneak Bills win.

 

In any event those 2 losses isn't concerning the least bit, not for me anyways. That said this Bills team can and will beat any team in the league right now and with those 2 particular losses are far from concerning imo

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Well speaking for myself I'm not concerned the least bit. I try considering of the 2 losses, 1st game of season loss happens, however if they played today I feel Bills win by 10.  As for Titians loss, it was a very close battle that Bills kinda shot themselves with the KR for TD wiped away, then the QB sneak where Allen slipped along with blocking could have been better. imo if they spread that out instead of running the sneak Bills win.

 

In any event those 2 losses isn't concerning the least bit, not for me anyways. That said this Bills team can and will beat any team in the league right now and with those 2 particular losses are far from concerning imo

 

I obviously think the Bills can beat any team in the league too, I even said I think they can both make and win the SB this year.  But red zone inefficiencies need to be correct, and so far its been a struggle both in losses and blow out wins even.  

 

Come playoff time, those can be death nails in a season.  Im still supremely confident in this team overall, just saying we only had 3 solid or better opponents on the season and we are 1-2 in those games.  And Redzone issues are largely responsible for that.  

[Bobby Hooks]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Come playoff time, those can be death nails in a season.  Im still supremely confident in this team overall, just saying we only had 3 solid or better opponents on the season and we are 1-2 in those games.  And Redzone issues are largely responsible for that.  

Death nails is quite possibly my favorite common mistake in the English language. 
 

It’s a combo of two expressions, the death knell, and final nail in the coffin. 
 

Ftr, I’m not picking on you, I get pure enjoyment every time I see it used. 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Bobby Hooks

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But in the post I responded to, he listed 7 games on our schedule that represent the most challenge on our season schedule this year, at least on paper.  And we have played 3 of them...we are 1-2 in those games.

I'd be curious to go back in time and look at playoff teams schedule breakdown in a given season. 

I'm hypothesizing here... but most playoff teams probably play 5-6 really challenging games in a season (how do we define this, probably teams that finish the season at or above .500?).

I would also say that most playoff teams end up anywhere between 3 and 6 losses on average. Which means they're roughly .500 against the challenging teams that they play? 

 

I might dig into this because it will probably be illuminating for folks on this board. 

 

Essentially my thought is playoff teams go .500 or worse against challenging teams in the regular season and beat up teams they should beat up. 

 

That's why 1-2 in our challenging games isn't a big deal at all... 

[Patrick Duffy]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I obviously think the Bills can beat any team in the league too, I even said I think they can both make and win the SB this year.  But red zone inefficiencies need to be correct, and so far its been a struggle both in losses and blow out wins even.  

 

Come playoff time, those can be death nails in a season.  Im still supremely confident in this team overall, just saying we only had 3 solid or better opponents on the season and we are 1-2 in those games.  And Redzone issues are largely responsible for that.  

Oh for sure. I agree with your statement here. I was just saying that the 2 losses are not something I consider concerning imo. As to the redzone issue, I agree, has to be better...especially against those tougher teams. That said though I feel that is something they improve more and more as we go.

 

I was speaking of the 2 losses in general that you said was concerning in your other post I quoted

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I obviously think the Bills can beat any team in the league too, I even said I think they can both make and win the SB this year.  But red zone inefficiencies need to be correct, and so far its been a struggle both in losses and blow out wins even.  

 

Come playoff time, those can be death nails in a season.  Im still supremely confident in this team overall, just saying we only had 3 solid or better opponents on the season and we are 1-2 in those games.  And Redzone issues are largely responsible for that.  

 

It does need to be fixed, I agree.  Here are some more stats though that are encouraging compared to last year...

 

Points per game 2021: 33.8 (2nd in the league) 2020: 29.9

Points per play 2021: 0.484 (3rd in the league) 2020: 0.468

Offensive TDs per game 2021: 3.7 (3rd in the league) 2020: 3.3

Red Zone scores per game 2021: 2.7 (4th in the league) 2020: 2.5

 

So it looks as even though our red zone TD% is down, we still score in the red zone more often.  Probably because we get there more often. Our PPG, PPP, and Offensive TDs per game are all higher than last year thus far.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

I'd be curious to go back in time and look at playoff teams schedule breakdown in a given season. 

I'm hypothesizing here... but most playoff teams probably play 5-6 really challenging games in a season (how do we define this, probably teams that finish the season at or above .500?).

I would also say that most playoff teams end up anywhere between 3 and 6 losses on average. Which means they're roughly .500 against the challenging teams that they play? 

 

I might dig into this because it will probably be illuminating for folks on this board. 

 

Essentially my thought is playoff teams go .500 or worse against challenging teams in the regular season and beat up teams they should beat up. 

 

That's why 1-2 in our challenging games isn't a big deal at all... 

 

To be clear, I am not making a big deal about it, but just pointing out 1-2 against 3 teams we could potentially see in the playoffs gives some concern none the less.  Especially since both losses were self inflicted losses due to dumb penalties and red zone inefficiencies.  

 

My point is, we don't get a "next" game come playoff time.  Coming up a few inches short means you go home until next year.  We need to solve this issue of shooting ourselves in the foot.  Or we will let teams like the Titans or Steelers steal wins...and regular season is one thing, but playoffs you go home.

 

And the main reason I am concerned about red zone efficiency, its still an issue this deep into the season and was even not all that good in some of our blow out wins against bad teams.   

 

Make no mistake, I am not in panic mode and I am still fully confident in our team and believe it this team can win the SB this year...but saying that, I would be foolish to not see the Redzone and penalty issues as somewhat concerning given its contributed to going 1-2 against better teams. 

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It does need to be fixed, I agree.  Here are some more stats though that are encouraging compared to last year...

 

Points per game 2021: 33.8 (2nd in the league) 2020: 29.9

Points per play 2021: 0.484 (3rd in the league) 2020: 0.468

Offensive TDs per game 2021: 3.7 (3rd in the league) 2020: 3.3

Red Zone scores per game 2021: 2.7 (4th in the league) 2020: 2.5

 

So it looks as even though our red zone TD% is down, we still score in the red zone more often.  Probably because we get there more often. Our PPG, PPP, and Offensive TDs per game are all higher than last year thus far.

 

Yeah, but wouldn't you agree thats also skewed heavily by our defensive shutouts against bad teams giving us constant great field position?  We are still explosive and can score no doubt, but those stats above, sexy as they may be, are a prime example of how stats lack context.  I think its fair to say its been influenced by facing some really bad teams, bad QB's, and bad defenses so far.  

 

I am in no way trying to be a Debbie Downer here, I love this team and think we are the best team in the AFC right now.  However, we are vulnerable to upset losses if we can't get better in the Redzone and stop leaving points on the field.  Especially need to fix the penalty issues by the OL.  

Edited October 27, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Scott7975]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, but wouldn't you agree thats also skewed heavily by our defensive shutouts against bad teams giving us constant great field position?  We are still explosive and can score no doubt, but those stats above, sexy as they may be, are a prime example of how stats lack context.  They are heavily influenced by facing some really bad teams, bad QB's, and bad defenses so far.  

 

The only stat that matters is the final score...and we are 1-2 against teams that weren't a bottom third team.  And the lone win is against KC, last in their division with the worst defense in the NFL and an offense thats also struggling uncharacteristically.  Although personally, I still see KC as a playoff team and SB threat as I believe they will right the ship at least on offense.  But they are clearly not playing up to the KC standards of the past few years on offense and fielding an atrocious defense.

 

I am in no way trying to be a Debbie Downer here, I love this team and think we are the best team in the AFC right now.  However, we are vulnerable to upset losses if we can't get better in the Redzone and stop leaving points on the field.  Especially need to fix the penalty issues by the OL.  

 

All stats are skewed by something.  Have we played poor teams? Yes, but outside of week 1 the Bills have done their job and destroyed them.  If they were playing close games against bad teams then that's when I would somewhat worry.  Last year they could have lost to the Jets.  

 

Those same bad teams with bad QBs and defenses also played 6 other teams.  Nobody else held Miami to under 3 scores.  We shut them out. Only the Bucs scored more than the Bills against them. Against the Texans not even the Cardinals put up 40 on them nor shut them out.  The Bills can only play who they play and they are doing their job against who they play.  Washington really isn't as bad as they are made out to be.  They certainly are not the Jets, Texans, Jags etc.

 

The Titans loss came down to the wire.  Its not like they were playing some crap team.  They were playing a super bowl contender.  Super Bowl teams lose to a team in the regular season that they go on to beat in the playoffs all the time.  

 

I was just trying to give you some feel good stats.  Regardless of how they are "skewed" they are good stats all the same.  As I said earlier, they need to correct their red zone efficiency.  That is true, but it's not something Im overly worried about.  Missing all those opportunities the Bills still hung over 30 on an excellent physical defense.  I don't care that the Titans got beat by the Jets.  Titans had a lot of important players out for that one.  They held Mahomes to 3 points.  I don't care how bad the Chiefs look at this point, holding them to 3 points is only done by excellent defense.

 

When good teams play good teams they are all vulnerable to a loss.  Its not an upset when both teams are good.  Do you think the Titans aren't good?  

Edited October 27, 2021 by Scott7975

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 10/25/2021 at 9:53 AM, PatsFanNH said:

Honest question for football fans.  Do you think the fact the Bills may only face 3 quality teams all year,(Yes I am considering my Pats a non quality team)  something that could hurt them come playoff time? 

 

From NH and no memories of NE with a cake schedule?

 

 

[eball]

On 10/25/2021 at 10:01 AM, NewEra said:

It might.

 

It might not.

 

no one knows

You, sir, clearly have your finger on the pulse of this team. 

[Simon]

I would agree there's something to that in the regular season, but not necessarily the postseason.

You hammer people for 4-5 games in a row and you sort of lose that natural fear. And when you lose that fear you lose the edge that comes with it. Then you walk onto a field against a genuine team that is looking for a genuine fight and you're not necessarily as prepared as you could be to get popped in the gob a bunch of times.

In the playoffs, you're going to have that fear back because now it's an elimination game and you're ready for 60 minutes of straight-up brawling no matter who's in front of you.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

I would agree there's something to that in the regular season, but not necessarily the postseason.

You hammer people for 4-5 games in a row and you sort of lose that natural fear. And when you lose that fear you lose the edge that comes with it. Then you walk onto a field against a genuine team that is looking for a genuine fight and you're not necessarily as prepared as you could be to get popped in the gob a bunch of times.

In the playoffs, you're going to have that fear back because now it's an elimination game and you're ready for 60 minutes of straight-up brawling no matter who's in front of you.

Yeah see I believe this Bills teams has gotten past that part. Like others have stated, one of the toughest schedules last season, got deep into playoffs. This team knows what they bring to the table, also to add this coaching staff etc has this team prepared regardless of who they play.

 

Whatever the case, I just think this Bills team has grown more and more and are far too tuned in for something like this to happen.

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I'd be curious to go back in time and look at playoff teams schedule breakdown in a given season. 

I'm hypothesizing here... but most playoff teams probably play 5-6 really challenging games in a season (how do we define this, probably teams that finish the season at or above .500?).

I would also say that most playoff teams end up anywhere between 3 and 6 losses on average. Which means they're roughly .500 against the challenging teams that they play? 

 

I might dig into this because it will probably be illuminating for folks on this board. 

 

Essentially my thought is playoff teams go .500 or worse against challenging teams in the regular season and beat up teams they should beat up. 

 

That's why 1-2 in our challenging games isn't a big deal at all... 

Not worth you’re time brother.  Pats fan is usually pretty decent which is why I didn’t say man this sniffs of trying to plant a seed of doubt on the Bills.  
 

you guys know you’re schedule is all but two games, now three controlled by every three or four years against other afc and nfc divisions. Last year we were supposed to have the 5th hardest schedule, but then SF injuries etc.  it’s just a crap shoot.