Mahomes vs Allen - The Long Term Knight

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Long term includes the past.   The assumption is that Allen will win more SB's than Mahomes.....IF you wait it out.   And he might,  but a Lombardi in the hand is worth more than a whole bunch of imaginary future ones.   Hence, the point being moot until it aint. 

 

What you are talking about is "from now going forward" ie "just the future" Allen will be more successful than Mahomes.    If Allen plays better for the next 12 years but never wins a SB.........then give me Mahomes and the 1 SB....whether Mahomes plays another down.    

 

I already lived the Jim Kelly experience,  it was fun but I don't need a refresh.    And I'm definitely a "journey is the reward" guy........but I know the ONLY thing that will make me appreciate the journey more is at least 1 SB win.   Just getting beaten in the playoffs 10 of 12 years from 1988-1999 was ok but been there, done that.

I got my money on 17 + McBeane to get us a Lombardi before they leave.  Do you?

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I got my money on 17 + McBeane to get us a Lombardi before they leave.  Do you?

 

You see that's just a difference in personality...........I don't derive any satisfaction from winning guessing games.........the question itself bores me.  

 

 I'm the house in this gambling equation so I would just say that if it doesn't happen in this season or the next, the odds decrease significantly.   

 

So there's that.

 

It's also more fun when it happens if you didn't just assume it would,  but if you want to count em before they hatch,  you do you but I prefer to count em' when the dealin' is done.   

 

[Governor]

Remember that Reid’s offense has been the most “QB friendly” in the history of the league. 

[FireChans]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think this is classic overreaction. You can say Mahomes hasn't taken Kelce or Hill to new heights but that isn't true. All three of Kelce's best years in the NFL have been catching passes from Mahomes. Even if you restrict Kelce's numbers to only comparing his two pre-Mahomes break out years with his Mahomes years he averages just over 20 yards per game more with Mahomes. Hill's best two years? With Mahomes. 

 

Have teams started to figure KC out? Yes. Is Mahomes pressing as a result and making more mistakes? Yes. But is Patrick Mahomes anything other than an elite Quarterback just having a poor trot? No.  

 

Long term? No. He is only playing at an average level right now. But he will figure it out. I have 0 doubts. I think 1% might even be high.

Guys like Brady and Rodgers had down years too. It happens. 
 

If Allen has an 18 year career, he will likely have a season or two where he has 20 something TD’s and double digit picks. It won’t mean he sucks. It’s just a down year.

[FireChans]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

KC's offense looks less creative this year. There is really no excuse for a team with Hill and Kelce to have trouble getting open. I can't help but wonder if Reid's personal life is distracting him, and I wouldn't blame him if it is. He already lost one son to a drug overdose, now his other son is facing jail time for seriously injuring a child while drunk driving. I don't care what job you have, it can't be easy to focus with all of that going on in your family.

I think Orlovsky was saying the reliance on RPO’s has made that offense more predictable to guard. They don’t run a lot of traditional 3 step drops. 
 

I think we see it a lot. Mahomes is bailing from cleanish pockets and not progressing through his reads to get to his check downs or get to the other side of the field. Defenses are keying in on this.

[BruceVilanch]

15 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Maholmes has accomplished more than most guys will in a career in his first 3 years playing, he’s not playing well at the moment, period.   I think a big part of this is simple, when you have a QB on a rookie deal, you have money to put other pieces around them and have a way better team.  Now that he’s THE highest paid guy anywhere, the cuts had to come.  Guys like Watkins might not be true, elite #1 guys, but you have to defend a guy with elite traits all game, that’s a safety that can’t cheat and you #2 CB working hard all day.  Now you throw Hardman to that spot, you just have to keep him in front of you, big difference.  That’s ONE example of what happens when you tie up an extra 20M a year in one player.   Then they used a 1st round pick on a RB that doesn’t get enough action to justify it (paying attention RB guys?).  Another wasted opportunity.

 

Flip to Allen, honestly, the league has him figured out too and he’s not playing well either.  The difference is, the Bills have played a bunch of garbage teams and the Chiefs are struggling more.   Allen is still playing good football in relative terms, but he’s not clicking, Ds are forcing him to make more reads and he’s missing A LOT of open guys.  He both single handedly kept us in the Tenn game in the 2nd half and proceeded to lose it too.  I think Allen is capable of doing more himself than virtually any QB in the league, the problem is when he tries to.  
 

Looking at the long term, both teams have to be thrilled to have these guys.  It will only ever be a debate in Buffalo if Allen is better, until he wins.  You can see it in the media already, Herbert was the crowned one.  Now, you are seeing Burrow get the attention he deserves.  That dude is great.  They are starting to turn on Maholmes, but if the Bills get to 10-3 or so and Allen is clicking, he’s gonna need non-slip shoes from all the slobbering the media will be doing.

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’m just confused how he’s not playing his best…is this based on statistics? He had rough games against kc and ten last year and was infinitely better this year.  Pit he performed about the same and the other games we won by a million points lol I think this is the best he’s ever played but we lost a few games that fans feel like we should’ve won so he is taking the blame. You could make the point he plays better against bad teams but doesn’t everyone? Lol and that certainly extends to his play last year. Not to mention mahomes played the titans the week after us and looked bad

 

I think the difference between last year and this year is the red zone efficiency. Not saying its all on Allen but it opens up people to think he isn't playing as well.  Last year this team was in the top of the league in the red zone.  This year they are in the bottom.  

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

Josh is our QB and I am very hopeful he will win multiple titles for this team and city.  However, let us not take away what Mahomes has done in his first four seasons in the NFL.   He is an astounding QB.   The Chiefs are losing not because of him.

 

I would argue part of it is because of Mahomes.  19Tds to 11 turnovers.  Thats just his turnovers.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Long term includes the past.   The assumption is that Allen will win more SB's than Mahomes.....IF you wait it out.   And he might,  but a Lombardi in the hand is worth more than a whole bunch of imaginary future ones.   Hence, the point being moot until it aint. 

 

What you are talking about is "from now going forward" ie "just the future" Allen will be more successful than Mahomes.    If Allen plays better for the next 12 years but never wins a SB.........then give me Mahomes and the 1 SB....whether Mahomes plays another down.    

 

I already lived the Jim Kelly experience,  it was fun but I don't need a refresh.    And I'm definitely a "journey is the reward" guy........but I know the ONLY thing that will make me appreciate the journey more is at least 1 SB win.   Just getting beaten in the playoffs 10 of 12 years from 1988-1999 was ok but been there, done that.

 

You are also assuming Mahomes wins a Super Bowl here which isn't necessarily true.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

I got my money on 17 + McBeane to get us a Lombardi before they leave.  Do you?

 

I believe it too. But if they screw this season up somehow my belief will reduce slightly. I think the opportunity is right there in front of them. It is there for them now. Not in 3 years, not in 4 years, now. The Buffalo Bills should be the AFC Superbowl representative this year. Anything less will be a bit of a disappointment to me. 

 

I do also agree with Badol though that one in the hand is better than 8 in the bush. Allen is 1-0 down. First he needs to equalise. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by GunnerBill

[njbuff]

8 hours ago, Governor said:

Remember that Reid’s offense has been the most “QB friendly” in the history of the league. 

 

Bill Walsh's offense was/is the most QB friendly offense in NFL history.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… the whole the Bills will be competitive for a long time narrative is bull. In the NFL it’s almost impossible to stay competitive year in and year out….

while having a great QB makes it more possible, it still is far from definite as many seem to think it is. I think their window is this year and next and after that all bets are off. 

 

That's because that's when the Jets take over the AFCE right?  That loaded WR core is just unstoppable.

[Hebert19]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I think the difference between last year and this year is the red zone efficiency. Not saying its all on Allen but it opens up people to think he isn't playing as well.  Last year this team was in the top of the league in the red zone.  This year they are in the bottom

Easy fix here.  They need to figure out how to run the ball down there.  Before we would just run Allen and score...now defenses are doing their best to take that away.  

 

Think of how many QB draws or sweeps in red zone have been stopped this year vs in the past.  

 

Line up the big guys and run the ball a bit. 

[SCBills]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think Orlovsky was saying the reliance on RPO’s has made that offense more predictable to guard. They don’t run a lot of traditional 3 step drops. 
 

I think we see it a lot. Mahomes is bailing from cleanish pockets and not progressing through his reads to get to his check downs or get to the other side of the field. Defenses are keying in on this.

 

While probably true, this is funny to hear Orlovsky say because leading up to our SNF Game against KC... he and Marcus Spears did a segment on NFL Live about how the KC RPO game was basically un-guardable.  

6 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Easy fix here.  They need to figure out how to run the ball down there.  Before we would just run Allen and score...now defenses are doing their best to take that away.  

 

Think of how many QB draws or sweeps in red zone have been stopped this year vs in the past.  

 

Line up the big guys and run the ball a bit. 

 

Trade for Hayden Hurst and run double TE sets in the red zone.  Both can stay in and block, and both are big red zone targets.  

 

I think our OL will improve in pass pro as Williams gets more and more acclimated to playing back inside, Brown gains experience and Dawkins gets his conditioning back, but I don't know that I ever see them being a strong short yardage line.  Nobody is likely trading quality IOL, but we could probably get a quality TE before the deadline to spell Knox, and play alongside Knox in compressed field situations. 

[Hebert19]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

While probably true, this is funny to hear Orlovsky say because leading up to our SNF Game against KC... he and Marcus Spears did a segment on NFL Live about how the KC RPO game was basically un-guardable.  

 

Trade for Hayden Hurst and run double TE sets in the red zone.  Both can stay in and block, and both are big red zone targets.  

 

I think our OL will improve in pass pro as Williams gets more and more acclimated to playing back inside, Brown gains experience and Dawkins gets his conditioning back, but I don't know that I ever see them being a strong short yardage line.  Nobody is likely trading quality IOL, but we could probably get a quality TE before the deadline to spell Knox, and play alongside Knox in compressed field situations. 

Agree.  I think it could be a little bit of personnel but just scheming the runs better down there would help.  Could be as simple as putting Josh under center and just using power football as you said with 2 TEs.   Less cute more power football.  

 

We also haven't ran many jet sweeps to keep D honest like we did last year.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

You are also assuming Mahomes wins a Super Bowl here which isn't necessarily true.

 

 

No,  I guess you missed it.......Mahomes has actually won a SB already.

 

If the question is who will be the better QB "going forward" then that question is a big "who cares" if neither of them wins a SB because Mahomes already has one.    

 

My support of Josh Allen has never wavered........liked the pick.......saw the potential.......enjoyed watching him play..........but I root for the laundry..........the objective is to win the SB not to just lose in the playoffs 10+ times over the course of some "favorite player's😙" career.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I believe it too. But if they screw this season up somehow my belief will reduce slightly. I think the opportunity is right there in front of them. It is there for them now. Not in 3 years, not in 4 years, now. The Buffalo Bills should be the AFC Superbowl representative this year. Anything less will be a bit of a disappointment to me. 

 

I do also agree with Badol though that one in the hand is better than 8 in the bush. Allen is 1-0 down. First he needs to equalise. 

 

 

Correct.........they have a window where they are set up to have the perfect storm of competitive advantages to win.    That's this year and *maybe* next.

 

After that they will have to win in spite of a competitive disadvantage against teams with their own perfect set up.

 

Maybe the QB well will run dry and that will change but over the last 9 years there has been a "first contract" QB team in 8 of those SB's.

 

They have won 4 (and none have won again, obviously) and Brady has won 4 and the outlier Lombardi was won by the Broncos defense(over rookie deal Cam).

 

 And frankly, one could argue that Brady as the supreme GOAT should probably be making double what he has earned in those seasons and by taking half that is a big reason why he has been able to get to so many himself.  

 

Rodgers, Russ and Mahomes all have won just the one SB and ain't playing for half their value.   Neither will Josh. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The Joe Flacco sweep is coming…. On a serious note, the WR core is the least of the Jets issues for an organization loaded with them.

 

I think all the positional units suck for the Jets.  

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

You see that's just a difference in personality...........I don't derive any satisfaction from winning guessing games.........the question itself bores me.  

 

 I'm the house in this gambling equation so I would just say that if it doesn't happen in this season or the next, the odds decrease significantly.   

 

So there's that.

 

It's also more fun when it happens if you didn't just assume it would,  but if you want to count em before they hatch,  you do you but I prefer to count em' when the dealin' is done.   

 

We’re just talking about who would you rather have long term…..

 

you’d rather have Mahomes at this moment?

 

Maybe I’m “moving the goalposts” so to speak, but I just don’t see what Mahomes winning Super Bowls in the past has to do with preferring him over josh allen for the next 10-20 years.  

4 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

I'll see it when I believe it.

Is that all you got mean gene?  I got so excited when I saw you replied to my post…but the reply was disappointing to say the least.  Step your game up Gene

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I believe it too. But if they screw this season up somehow my belief will reduce slightly. I think the opportunity is right there in front of them. It is there for them now. Not in 3 years, not in 4 years, now. The Buffalo Bills should be the AFC Superbowl representative this year. Anything less will be a bit of a disappointment to me. 

 

I do also agree with Badol though that one in the hand is better than 8 in the bush. Allen is 1-0 down. First he needs to equalise. 

absolutely.  This year is their best opportunity to date.  Mathematically speaking our chances of winning one with 17 goes down every season that we don’t win one.  We may never win one.  I realize that, but I still believe that we will.  I believe that Allen is still getting better and that his desire to bring a Lombardi to our franchise will only grow in time. 
 

When talking about who you would rather have long term, which is what I was doing, I don’t see how Mahomes winning a SB in KC comes into play when deciding who you’d rather have.  The Lombardi doesn’t come with him.  Would you guys rather have Nick Foles too?  He beat Tom Brady AND Belichick on the biggest stage there is.  He’s shown he can win it all bs the GOATs.  He did it all by himself too.  He carried their vaunted D in the big game

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Maybe the QB well will run dry and that will change but over the last 9 years there has been a "first contract" QB team in 8 of those SB's.

 

I think there is some evidence that is might be running at least a little drier.... neither this upcoming class or the 2023 class looks particularly special at this stage. But the AFC is already sufficiently stocked with Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert and possibly Jones / Wilson who are "behind" Josh on that timeline. Luckily some of them are on organisations I am yet to fully trust. The path isn't gonna get any easier from here though.