Mahomes vs Allen - The Long Term Knight

[Royale with Cheese]

Is it possible that Mahomes becomes just an average QB?  This started happening mid point last season....

I know it's about a 1% but just imagine if it does happen....would this be one of the biggest falls in sports history?  

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

My thought on this is maybe a bit overly simplistic. But, Travis Kelce has always been Travis Kelce. Hill has always been Hill. Mahomes hasn't taken them to any new heights.

 

Many times we see these great Mahomes plays and when it gets broken down it's just a matter of him winging it deep and Hill outrunning everyone. Mahomes has even said as much. 

 

I believe he falls into the category (as does Hill and Kelce) of teams have figured out ways to defend them. As of yet, there has been very little of an answer from the Chiefs on fixing it. This is much more than just 6 or 7 games this year as well. Going as far back as the Dolphins/Chiefs game last year things have slowed down for that offense. While Mahomes has done great things in the past (and taking nothing away from his past accomplishments) he's finally looking every bit the player that scouting reports had him as coming out of college. The NFL has caught up to him. Can he adjust and improve? Maybe. 

 

I think this is classic overreaction. You can say Mahomes hasn't taken Kelce or Hill to new heights but that isn't true. All three of Kelce's best years in the NFL have been catching passes from Mahomes. Even if you restrict Kelce's numbers to only comparing his two pre-Mahomes break out years with his Mahomes years he averages just over 20 yards per game more with Mahomes. Hill's best two years? With Mahomes. 

 

Have teams started to figure KC out? Yes. Is Mahomes pressing as a result and making more mistakes? Yes. But is Patrick Mahomes anything other than an elite Quarterback just having a poor trot? No.  

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Is it possible that Mahomes becomes just an average QB?  This started happening mid point last season....

I know it's about a 1% but just imagine if it does happen....would this be one of the biggest falls in sports history?  

 

Long term? No. He is only playing at an average level right now. But he will figure it out. I have 0 doubts. I think 1% might even be high.

[Rockinon]

I think Allen still needs to work on some stuff. Pushing the ball downfield into tight coverage so often is not a recipe for success. How many times have we seen this when he has a wide open receiver up close who can at least get an easy 1st down. You need to take those plays. It also keeps those safeties guessing. Allen has struggled with defenses that keep two deep safeties out there. All he needs to do is take a few of those short passes and make one of those safeties creep up and guess whether it'll be a short or long pass. Pretty basic stuff, but he is forcing the ball downfield too much. And it has cost us a win. The good news is I think he knows it too. I'm thinking that he is very much on the verge of really lighting things up. He just needs to be a little more patient.

 

Mahomes is finding out that he doesn't have as much support around him and that he is mortal. He's still a great QB, but now he has to figure out how to do more with less. Going to be interesting to see how he responds throughout the season.

[PatsFanNH]

9 hours ago, rayray808 said:

“Ah you think darkness is your ally? You merely adopted the dark. I was born in it, molded by it. I didn't see the light until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but blinding!”

 

ADVERSITY: : a state or instance of serious or continued difficulty or misfortune.

 

 

When looking at the debate over long term and sustainable success in regards to Mahomes vs Allen - the one thing I circle back to is the concept of adversity and grit.

 

During his time in the league, Mahomes has already accomplished things other players would be happy to achieve over the course of their entire careers. He has already won a Super Bowl, a league MVP and a Super Bowl MVP, while dropping jaws and setting all kinds of records along the way. Here's the thing though: He took over for Alex Smith after the Chiefs made the playoffs 3 years in a row, and had a solid team and was already surrounded by tons of talent.

 

Josh Allen however was thrown into a pure dumpster fire in his first game as a pro after Peterman threw 5 picks in the first half. We lost 47-3 that day and he had to throw to guys like Kelvin Benjamin, who put in close to zero effort to helping Josh or the team. It was the beginning of the roster reset in Buffalo and Allen was along for every bump along the road.

 

FAST FORWARD TO TODAY: the Chiefs are starting to struggle, and Mahomes is pressing to try and make something happen for his team. "Sugar high Pat"? Nah, the media would never say such a thing. However, now we get to see how he responds to having to deal with adversity through a struggling defense, and tougher division.

 

Is Mahomes a solid QB? YES. Absolutely.

 

However, is Josh Allen? YOU BET.

 

Long term QB? Give me Josh Allen all day. I cannot even fathom the type of plays he would do week in and week out with leading a team that's firing on all cylinders like KC has been for the past 5 years.

 

It’s obvious Mahomes isn’t right.  The O looks meh and their D is one of the worst in the league. So I am not going to dump on a QB who in 3 years gone to 3 AFCCG and 2 SB that’s mind blowing numbers. (He would have a 3peat I am sure if not for Tom Brady led teams) 

 

Allen is good too 6 at least, but as far as being better than Mahomes, the numbers and trophies don’t show that. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think this is classic overreaction. You can say Mahomes hasn't taken Kelce or Hill to new heights but that isn't true. All three of Kelce's best years in the NFL have been catching passes from Mahomes. Even if you restrict Kelce's numbers to only comparing his two pre-Mahomes break out years with his Mahomes years he averages just over 20 yards per game more with Mahomes. Hill's best two years? With Mahomes. 

 

Have teams started to figure KC out? Yes. Is Mahomes pressing as a result and making more mistakes? Yes. But is Patrick Mahomes anything other than an elite Quarterback just having a poor trot? No.  

 

Long term? No. He is only playing at an average level right now. But he will figure it out. I have 0 doubts. I think 1% might even be high.

While what you say here is factually correct it's important to look a bit deeper as well. Kelce and Hill have both seen a spike in numbers, namely yards per game with Mahomes...this is true. 

 

However this is a byproduct of Mahomes throwing the ball 150-200 more times a season than Smith did in his day. More attempts will of course result in more targets and more yards per game. However looking at ypc of both Hill and Kelce are right in the wheelhouse with Mahomes that they were in with Smith. So, I can't say he's made them better per say as much as he's gotten more opportunity to throw. 

 

Outside of those 2 guys there is no one on the Chiefs that has prospered from playing with him. Guys like Hardman, Pringle, even im the past with a guy like Watkins. They are who they are. 

 

Flip the script to Allen and his guys and players like Diggs, Beasley, John Brown all had marked improvement. I'm not in any way saying Mahomes doesn't have elite level talent. He's just not as far away elite as he's been made out to be. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No Place To Hyde said:

While what you say here is factually correct it's important to look a bit deeper as well. Kelce and Hill have both seen a spike in numbers, namely yards per game with Mahomes...this is true. 

 

However this is a byproduct of Mahomes throwing the ball 150-200 more times a season than Smith did in his day. More attempts will of course result in more targets and more yards per game. However looking at ypc of both Hill and Kelce are right in the wheelhouse with Mahomes that they were in with Smith. So, I can't say he's made them better per say as much as he's gotten more opportunity to throw. 

 

Outside of those 2 guys there is no one on the Chiefs that has prospered from playing with him. Guys like Hardman, Pringle, even im the past with a guy like Watkins. They are who they are. 

 

Flip the script to Allen and his guys and players like Diggs, Beasley, John Brown all had marked improvement. I'm not in any way saying Mahomes doesn't have elite level talent. He's just not as far away elite as he's been made out to be. 

 

I'm sorry I just flat out disagree on Kelce and Hill. They have played their best football with Mahomes throwing them the ball. How can I compare Hardman? He has only ever played with Mahomes. 

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Is it possible that Mahomes becomes just an average QB?  This started happening mid point last season....

I know it's about a 1% but just imagine if it does happen....would this be one of the biggest falls in sports history?  

Only feels impossible because of the hype. It's very possible he becomes a 2 or 3 year wonder. Maybe not a bum, but falls to Stafford or Prescott levels. 

[DCofNC]

Maholmes has accomplished more than most guys will in a career in his first 3 years playing, he’s not playing well at the moment, period.   I think a big part of this is simple, when you have a QB on a rookie deal, you have money to put other pieces around them and have a way better team.  Now that he’s THE highest paid guy anywhere, the cuts had to come.  Guys like Watkins might not be true, elite #1 guys, but you have to defend a guy with elite traits all game, that’s a safety that can’t cheat and you #2 CB working hard all day.  Now you throw Hardman to that spot, you just have to keep him in front of you, big difference.  That’s ONE example of what happens when you tie up an extra 20M a year in one player.   Then they used a 1st round pick on a RB that doesn’t get enough action to justify it (paying attention RB guys?).  Another wasted opportunity.

 

Flip to Allen, honestly, the league has him figured out too and he’s not playing well either.  The difference is, the Bills have played a bunch of garbage teams and the Chiefs are struggling more.   Allen is still playing good football in relative terms, but he’s not clicking, Ds are forcing him to make more reads and he’s missing A LOT of open guys.  He both single handedly kept us in the Tenn game in the 2nd half and proceeded to lose it too.  I think Allen is capable of doing more himself than virtually any QB in the league, the problem is when he tries to.  
 

Looking at the long term, both teams have to be thrilled to have these guys.  It will only ever be a debate in Buffalo if Allen is better, until he wins.  You can see it in the media already, Herbert was the crowned one.  Now, you are seeing Burrow get the attention he deserves.  That dude is great.  They are starting to turn on Maholmes, but if the Bills get to 10-3 or so and Allen is clicking, he’s gonna need non-slip shoes from all the slobbering the media will be doing.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, ToGoGo said:

Only feels impossible because of the hype. It's very possible he becomes a 2 or 3 year wonder. Maybe not a bum, but falls to Stafford or Prescott levels. 

 

Falling to the level of a top 10 Quarterback rather than a top 3 Quarterback is, I agree, more likely than him becoming an average Quarterback but I'd still say it is pretty unlikely overall. Much more likely is that he remains a great player having a disappointing few games. Rather than him being just a good player who had a great 3 years. 

[Captain Hindsight]

The chiefs haven't really changed their offense in 3 years and teams are loading up to stop them.

 

3-4 currently with the Packers, raiders x2, chargers, cowboys and bengals and Steelers

 

They play the giants next week and have the broncos twice. Rest of those games are hardly gimmies. 

 

If they lose to the Packers, Cowboys, Bengals, and chargers thats 8 losses. If raiders can steal a game....

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm sorry I just flat out disagree on Kelce and Hill. They have played their best football with Mahomes throwing them the ball. How can I compare Hardman? He has only ever played with Mahomes. 

 

I mean, its not far and away better.  Its a couple hundred yards each, outside of one season. Smith had a career year there too throwing for 4k yards.  Obviously Mahomes is better but he isnt worlds better.  He was enough better to get them over the hump and slightly more.

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Falling to the level of a top 10 Quarterback rather than a top 3 Quarterback is, I agree, more likely than him becoming an average Quarterback but I'd still say it is pretty unlikely overall. Much more likely is that he remains a great player having a disappointing few games. Rather than him being just a good player who had a great 3 years. 

 

I agree but Reid needs to help him out.  No QB is good enough to completely carry a team.  Not Brady and not Mahomes.  Some games maybe but not to Super Bowl wins.

[Rico]

Kelce looks old af, probably from finally getting hit.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I mean, its not far and away better.  Its a couple hundred yards each, outside of one season. Smith had a career year there too throwing for 4k yards.  Obviously Mahomes is better but he isnt worlds better.  He was enough better to get them over the hump and slightly more.

 

I agree but Reid needs to help him out.  No QB is good enough to completely carry a team.  Not Brady and not Mahomes.  Some games maybe but not to Super Bowl wins.

 

I agree Reid needs to help him out. It is the underrated part of this. Teams have caught up to Reid's design as much (in my view more) than they have caught up to Mahomes's tendencies IMO. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree Reid needs to help him out. It is the underrated part of this. Teams have caught up to Reid's design as much (in my view more) than they have caught up to Mahomes's tendencies IMO. 

 

Who is better looking....Allen or Mahomes?

[Hebert19]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Is it possible that Mahomes becomes just an average QB?  This started happening mid point last season....

I know it's about a 1% but just imagine if it does happen....would this be one of the biggest falls in sports history?  

I have said for 3 years he throws a lot of balls that should not be thrown and has gotten away with them...this year he simply isn't getting away with it. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Who is better looking....Allen or Mahomes?

 

This season? Josh Allen. Isn't even a question. 

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree Reid needs to help him out. It is the underrated part of this. Teams have caught up to Reid's design as much (in my view more) than they have caught up to Mahomes's tendencies IMO. 

 

That and I was also referring to getting him some defense.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This season? Josh Allen. Isn't even a question. 

 

Allen's face got more attractive just this season?

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

That and I was also referring to getting him some defense.

 

Yea. They will need to overhaul that defense. Frank Clark has been a non-factor. Mathieu is looking his age. They seem to have voluntarily self-negated Chris Jones. L'Jarius Snead has been moved from where he was an outstanding rookie in the nickel to try and patch holes outside. They were basically their 4 most impactful defensive players last year. Breeland has moved on and he had a career year last year at corner so his loss has been felt, even though I think the chances of him repeating that form were slim anyway. 

 

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This season? Josh Allen. Isn't even a question. 

 

Oh sorry I misread your question..... Meh. Neither of them set the pulse racing. There was that one photo of Josh in his superman t-shirt that got me all steamy but otherwise.... meh. Mahomes's hair is enough to put anyone off. 

Edited October 25, 2021 by GunnerBill

[NewEra]

Mahomes has earned the right to be the best and has to be rated ahead of Allen.  MVP + Super bowl MVP + Lombardi in his first 2 years as a starter. Unreal.  
 

That said, Josh is coming and Pat is dealing with his first string of failures.  Let’s see how copes with and bounces back from these failures.