Is being the one seed THAT important?

[machine gun kelly]

Answer to the question from OP is yes.  I know people are frustrated from loss, but the team’s in contention all have tougher schedules than us.  KC has a good shot at beating TN this week.  Baltimore also has a bunch of tough games ahead.  Even Cincy is 4-2 right now and wouldn’t count them out.

 

By the time we get back from the bye, it could be Baltimore 5-2, KC 4-3, TN 4-3, the Bolts are on a bye like is but 4-2.  We could definitely benefit from the Pats beating the Bolts next week.  I’m not worried about the Raiders 4-2. I don’t see in any works is not beating the Fish, nor the Jags and Jets for that matter.

 

That means we are 7-2 and most likely very much in the hunt for the #1 seed.  Just like you’re boss says don’t email anyone when angry as you almost always have to walk it back, nor a loved one as you always make an ass of yourself, don’t post after a tough loss and make a big claim.

 

This whole we are playing a soft schedule is crap.  Why? Because we don’t choose our schedule.  Just like last year we had the AFC/NFC West, this year we have the South.  I’ll take the wins.  You guys love bold predictions.

 

Mine is we walk into Tampa Bay (my home and I’ll have my MGK jersey on at the game) 10-2.  The Bucs may have the same record, but probably not.  Their only two competitive games are the Colts and Saints.  The Saints always play them tough.  That would be my guess of a possible loss as it’s on Halloween in NO.  We’ll see as the Saints are running great and the Bucs have a great running defense.

 

10-2 vs. 10-2 to 11-1.  This will be a hype game like the Chiefs.  I hope there are at least 25,000 Bills fans there as we are a 1-3 ratio in the noise factor in that stadium.

 

Go Bills!

Edited October 22, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[Mr. WEO]

17 hours ago, BobBelcher said:

but how much of that is just the result of the top seed simply being a much better team than everyone else in their conference?

 

I can say from the AFC, KC was easily the best team in the past 2-3 seasons already, and they would’ve made the super bowl even with an extra game IMO 

 

From 1993-2009, no SB featured the 2 top seeds from AFC/NFC.  So not every SB features "the best team in the Conference".  Ask the Packers.

 

From 2015-2019, all 10 home teams won their conference championship games.  

 

 

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I agree with this to a certain degree, but again was it being outmatched as much as the historical statistics say otherwise?

 

I will say that I firmly believe we would have beat the Texans though had we played in at home in the playoffs a few years ago considering we should have won that game in Houston.

 

KC won in Buffalo last year so that outcome probably would have been the same albeit closer just like the game in Buffalo was earlier in the season, and the 2017 team was pretty much a fluke and only 4-4 at home that season anyway so also don't believe it would have mattered against the Jaguars who went on to the almost beat the Patriots in the AFCCG.

 

But again, the bigger reason the #1 seed matters now is that you only need to win 2 playoff games (which the Bills did last year) to punch your ticket to the SB.

Yeah I agree it helps.  I just think of a team like Baltimore in 2019 who ran roughshod over just about the entire league and blew almost all of their opponents out of the water sans SF and Buffalo.  
 

Tennesee came into Baltimore, fresh off a big upset in NE, and beat the crap out them.  
 

So while a first round bye important, I think it’s not as much of a sure thing as some fans would like to believe 

[Mr. WEO]

16 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I think it's so important that we need a second thread about it when there's a 5 page thread about it immediately below this one.

 

 

 

No that just makes this the green light for a third thread.  

[ngbills]

is this even a question? Obviously you dont have to be a one seed, but if you have the chance it is a huge advantage. Just because there non 1 seeds that have made it means nothing. 

[First Round Bust]

would we have won last years close games with Indy and Balt ?  there was little-partial crowd noise but the home field elements did have a contribution...Indy blew some make-able kicks and the small but vocal crowd noise helped when the Ravens were driving...last year is just that, but this year has full-throttle crowd noise, lets get it !

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Look at the Bills playoff record all time home vs away. This team just doesn’t win road playoff games….and at home? I won’t jinx that

Edited October 21, 2021 by Brianmoorman4jesus

[FilthyBeast]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Look at the Bills playoff record all time home vs away. This team just doesn’t win road playoff games….and at home? I won’t jinx that

 

Another valid point, if you go back to the 90's during the glory years they had one home playoff loss (1996 against the Jags and also Kim Kelly's last game)

 

During the 4 straight SB's years they had home field throughout in 3 of those 4 years, the only exception was 1992 when Kelly got hurt (won that famous comeback game against the Houston Oilers, then on the road against the Steelers and Dolphins). The previous 2 seasons in 1988 and 1989 they also lost on the road in the playoffs including another AFCCG appearance in CIN in 88.

 

Also lost on the road in the payoffs in 1998 and 1999 with the Doug Flutie led teams including the infamous homerun throwback game against the Titans when Rob Johnson was the starter.

 

Bottom line, no matter what anybody says home field in the playoffs matter especially given this teams history and not winning a road playoff game in nearly 30 years.

[corta765]

Having the #1 seed guarantees just two games needed to make the SB and you are home for both. At least one of the #1 seeds has made the SB 4 of the last 5 years with the only year not being the 2018-19 season when both #2 seeds NE and LAR beat the #1 seeds at home (mind you NOLA should've went thanks officials). The year prior to that in 2017-18 both #1 seeds made the SB (NE and PHI). So you when it basically has been a 50% average of a #1 seed making it in I would say its a big deal.

[zow2]

The Bills play good football on the road so I wouldn't be that concerned if they are #2.   I'd rather be #1 but think they can fulfill all their goals being #2.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Yeah I agree it helps.  I just think of a team like Baltimore in 2019 who ran roughshod over just about the entire league and blew almost all of their opponents out of the water sans SF and Buffalo.  
 

Tennesee came into Baltimore, fresh off a big upset in NE, and beat the crap out them.  
 

So while a first round bye important, I think it’s not as much of a sure thing as some fans would like to believe 

That was a very strange game and a bit more complicated than this characterization. Baltimore had 29 first downs to TN's 15 and outyarded TN 530-300. Those are huge disparities. They lost because of turnovers, basically, but they dominated between the 20s.  Baltimore was also 0-4 on fourth down.

Edited October 21, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Nextmanup]

It's not the ONLY path to the Super Bowl, but if you can get that #1 seed, it is by far the preferred path! 

 

A Super Bowl is BY FAR the easiest championship to win in N. American sports....especially if you are the No. 1 seed! 

 

You get the first week off, play all games at home, and with 2 measly wins in a row, you are in the big dance! 

 

In contrast, winning a Stanley Cup is nearly impossible!

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

yes it is.  

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

That was a very strange game and a bit more complicated than this characterization. Baltimore had 29 first downs to TN's 15 and outyarded TN 530-300. Those are huge disparities. They lost because of turnovers, basically, but they dominated between the 20s.  Baltimore was also 0-4 on fourth down.

Ok…how about TB winning all three games on the road last season before winning the Super Bowl.  As someone else said, home field is probably the easiest path to the SB but not the only only one

[QCity]

7 hours ago, SCBills said:

This question has to be a coping mechanism for the loss to Tennessee.

 

The #1 seed is INCREDIBLY important.  

 

Guaranteed to move past WC Weekend, and then play two games - both at home - to get to the Super Bowl. 

 

We still have a great shot at the #1, no need to try to pretend this isn't a massive deal. 

 

This. There's a segment of the fan base that can talk themselves into any outcome being beneficial somehow i.e. this loss might be a "blessing." We've already had 2 "blessings" in the first 6 weeks I can do without any more.

 

Everyone that was around in the early 90's would laugh at this notion.

[Scott7975]

Teams can get to the Super Bowl without it but you can't say having the #1 seed isn't a huge advantage.

 

- extra week to rest players and scheme up the next game

- only need to play two games to get to the show

- said two games are at home

 

Those advantages are pretty big.

 

The season is still long.  Winning the Titans game would have been pretty big in getting that #1 seed but losing it doesn't mean the Bills won't get it.  The schedule is mostly down hill from here.

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Ok…how about TB winning all three games on the road last season before winning the Super Bowl.  As someone else said, home field is probably the easiest path to the SB but not the only only one

Oh sure, it can definitely happen. But there’s a reason the Bills went to a bunch of SBs in the early 1990s. Home field advantage was a real thing. They did beat Miami and Pitt on the road in the 1992-1993 season, but every other game in that run was a home game. They beat a very talented Raiders team in 1993 mostly because Kelly was good in the cold and the temperature was like -8 degrees. If that game had been in Oakland, I think the Bills would have lost. The Raiders mostly matched up well vs. the Bills in those years outside of the 1990 championship game. Anyway, you want home field advantage.  

Edited October 22, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Greg S]

The last team playing 3 road games as a WC and winning the Super Bowl was the Giants with Manning. That usually doesn't happen. Getting the #1 seed would be huge for the Bills. I think it will come down to the Bills and Ravens as to who gets it.

[BearNorth]

Through week 6, Away teams have won 50 games, Home teams 42.

[TBBills]

33 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Through week 6, Away teams have won 50 games, Home teams 42.

Talking about playoffs totally different atmosphere.