Is being the one seed THAT important?

[Success]

I mean, NFL history kind of says, "sometimes."

 

No, not really. There are certain places I wouldn't want to go to for the AFCCG.  KC being #1.

 

I'd actually LOVE to go back to TN.

 

[Einstein]

Yes.

[die hard bills fan]

Yes.

[78thealltimegreat]

This team can beat anyone anywhere but to have the AFC title game in Buffalo is literally like an extra touchdown on the scoreboard 

[dma0034]

4 hours ago, JohnNord said:

A little misleading considering that there used to be 2 byes in the playoffs.  TB didn’t need a bye to win the Super Bowl.  
 

I think it helps but it’s far from a guarantee. It’s better to be healthy and peaking at the right time

 

Not really misleading. 1 out of 2 made it last year and the Packers made some questionable decisions in the NFC Championshop. It is tough to win on the road.

[nedboy7]

Wish one of the last two night games was at home. 

[Billznut]

Here is how important it is to the Buffalo Bills. 
 

Playoff record Since 1970:

 

Buffalo Home Playoff Record:    11-1 

Buffalo Away Playoff Record:     3-11

Buffalo Neutral Playoff Record:   0-4

 

The Bills are 11-1 playing in that stadium in the playoffs. They are 3-15 when not playing in that stadium in the playoffs. 
 

Next time someone tries to tell you it doesn’t matter where they play. Please feel free to point out these stats. 

[Greg S]

It's important. The players could use that extra week off to get healthy. Even if they aren't on the injury report you just know that everyone is banged up somewhat. One less extra game to play. You play two games at home in front of 72,000 crazy fans. It will be a lot easier to reach the Super Bowl if they get the #1 seed.

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, Steptide said:

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

Ask yourself this: would you rather face the Ravens in KC, the Titans in Nashville, the Chiefs in Arrowhead, or any of those three in a freezing, snowy game with a 20-30 mph wind in Orchard Park for which you can prepare for outside during the week? The answer to me is crushingly obvious.

[Thurman#1]

There's statistical proof that the home team gets an advantage. And that advantage is bigger in loud stadiums like KC and Buffalo.

 

And there are plenty of times when the best two teams didn't make it to the Super Bowl. More like the best, luckiest team in the playoffs, with matchups often making a huge difference.

 

The Bills were probably the best team in two of our Super Bowls. Probably not the best team in the AFC one or two of those years as well, especially the year they made it from the wild card.

 

Being the one seed doesn't mean everything. But it's a significant advantage, particularly these days when only the one seed gets a week off.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, BobBelcher said:

but how much of that is just the result of the top seed simply being a much better team than everyone else in their conference?

 

I can say from the AFC, KC was easily the best team in the past 2-3 seasons already, and they would’ve made the super bowl even with an extra game IMO 

 

 

A pretty damn fair amount.

 

The difference between the #1 seed and the #2 seed isn't generally all that large. Look at their records, it's usually a tie or a game or at most two of difference.

 

Particularly after a 17 week season, but even back when it was 16, teams are beat up and exhausted by the end of the season. Having a week to get healthy is huge.

[SinceThe70s]

14 hours ago, Steptide said:

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

 

Completely disagree with the bolded. Getting the 1 seed and bye helps to mitigate against upsets. 

[NoSaint]

16 hours ago, Steptide said:

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

youre essentially arguing you don’t believe in home field advantage. While every team and every game is different I have yet to see an argument that the home team doesn’t generally win at a better clip.

 

noise at big moments, kickers knowing the stadium, etc…

 

it obviously doesn’t decide the game before it even starts but if it makes a coin flip into a 55-45 affair then yes, I’ll take it every time. And that’s before getting into bye week implications of potentially slipping down the board

[LabattBlue]

IMO...being the #1 seed is that important.  I don't care if the Bills beat the KC in Arrowhead two weeks ago.  I don't want to meet them in the playoffs there come January.

Edited October 21, 2021 by BTB

[Metal Man]

The bye and home field is definitely an advantage and I think teams will gladly take any advantage they can get in the playoffs regardless of how large or small it is.

[FilthyBeast]

15 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I think the 3 road loses had more to do with the opponents than the playoffs.

 

2017: The Bills were outmatched by a better Jacksonville team

2019: The Bills couldn’t stop DeShaun Watson

2020: The Bills were outmatched by a better KC Team

 

I agree with this to a certain degree, but again was it being outmatched as much as the historical statistics say otherwise?

 

I will say that I firmly believe we would have beat the Texans though had we played in at home in the playoffs a few years ago considering we should have won that game in Houston.

 

KC won in Buffalo last year so that outcome probably would have been the same albeit closer just like the game in Buffalo was earlier in the season, and the 2017 team was pretty much a fluke and only 4-4 at home that season anyway so also don't believe it would have mattered against the Jaguars who went on to the almost beat the Patriots in the AFCCG.

 

But again, the bigger reason the #1 seed matters now is that you only need to win 2 playoff games (which the Bills did last year) to punch your ticket to the SB.

[dollars 2 donuts]

When you can't beat the Pittsburgh's and the Tennessee's of the League, it is probably pretty darn important.  

 

 

[SCBills]

This question has to be a coping mechanism for the loss to Tennessee.

 

The #1 seed is INCREDIBLY important.  

 

Guaranteed to move past WC Weekend, and then play two games - both at home - to get to the Super Bowl. 

 

We still have a great shot at the #1, no need to try to pretend this isn't a massive deal. 

[LewPort71]

 

Steve Tasker says it all...Welcome to Buffalo  .Might be chilly

[H2o]

Having the extra week off and being guaranteed Home Field is THAT important, yes. I hate the new format where only one team gets a week off.