Is being the one seed THAT important?

[Steptide]

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

[Augie]

Only if we get it. If not, we put on a brave face and go to battle!  

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I think it's even more important this year with a longer season. We have an early bye week and it would give is an extra week of rest when we need it the most. One more week to heal up and one less week of injury risk. 

 

If we don't get it, I just hope we get multiple home playoff games.

[Orlando Buffalo]

I think the rest is more important than the home field advantage. I think with a week off we could run through any team that had to play the previous week.

[Chicken Boo]

More important is the team peaking at the right time.

[ShakAttack]

I just have to say, after YEARS of just hoping to get IN to the playoffs, it’s kinda cool to discuss where we will seed instead of How and when we are going to clinch a playoff berth (and for many years that was a miserable repeating pattern of holding on to the slightest shred of hope all the way up until the moment we were officially eliminated). 
 

Threads like this remind me how far we’ve come…

Edited October 20, 2021 by BobBelcher

[dma0034]

Yes. Extremely important. Just in the last 5 Superbowls only one team made without having a bye in the first round. 

[ShakAttack]

Just now, dma0034 said:

Yes. Extremely important. Just in the last 5 Superbowls only one team made without having a bye in the first round. 

but how much of that is just the result of the top seed simply being a much better team than everyone else in their conference?

 

I can say from the AFC, KC was easily the best team in the past 2-3 seasons already, and they would’ve made the super bowl even with an extra game IMO 

[BuffaloBillyG]

The biggest reason it's important in my eyes is it's 1 less game. 1 less game for the ball to bounce the wrong way, 1 less game for a ref call to take you out and most importantly 1 less game of fatigue and potential injury happening to key players.

[cba fan]

33 minutes ago, Steptide said:

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

statistical proof is home teams win more often.

yes getting top seed and a bye is very important for rest and health.

[The Jokeman]

32 minutes ago, Steptide said:

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

The bye week definitely helps IMHO. Toss in having to win 2 games to get to the Super Bowl vs 3 is quite different.

[cba fan]

11 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

but how much of that is just the result of the top seed simply being a much better team than everyone else in their conference?

 

I can say from the AFC, KC was easily the best team in the past 2-3 seasons already, and they would’ve made the super bowl even with an extra game IMO 

yes top seed is result of being better than the rest. Therefore they get high seed and bye week. Therefore being 1# seed is very important as it means you are the best team.

[FilthyBeast]

30 minutes ago, Steptide said:

This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. 

 

Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl?

 

Yes for multiple reasons:

 

1) You only have to win two playoff games to get to the SB

2) This team is under McDermott is 0-3 on the road in the playoffs

3) The way this team is built in the trenches no PO game is going to be easy as we saw last year despite making it to the AFCCG

 

And yes there is a better statistical chance look no further than the Chiefs, in fact assuming they don't win their division this year and get in as a WC it will be the first time Mahomes has ever played in a playoff game away from Arrowhead on the road.

 

 

[JohnNord]

25 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

Yes. Extremely important. Just in the last 5 Superbowls only one team made without having a bye in the first round. 

A little misleading considering that there used to be 2 byes in the playoffs.  TB didn’t need a bye to win the Super Bowl.  
 

I think it helps but it’s far from a guarantee. It’s better to be healthy and peaking at the right time

[Southern_Bills]

Home field and an extra bye is a great get, is it absolutely necessary? No.

 

Obviously having it is better than not having it, for Buffalo the home field is probably more important than the bye.

[Rigotz]

I think it's so important that we need a second thread about it when there's a 5 page thread about it immediately below this one.

 

 

[TampaBillsJunkie]

yes

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Win 2 games to reach the bowl or win 3. And get rest.

It's a pretty big deal

[billybrew1]

Yes.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Yes for multiple reasons:

 

1) You only have to win two playoff games to get to the SB

2) This team is under McDermott is 0-3 on the road in the playoffs

3) The way this team is built in the trenches no PO game is going to be easy as we saw last year despite making it to the AFCCG

 

And yes there is a better statistical chance look no further than the Chiefs, in fact assuming they don't win their division this year and get in as a WC it will be the first time Mahomes has ever played in a playoff game away from Arrowhead on the road.

 

 

I think the 3 road loses had more to do with the opponents than the playoffs.

 

2017: The Bills were outmatched by a better Jacksonville team

2019: The Bills couldn’t stop DeShaun Watson

2020: The Bills were outmatched by a better KC Team