Beane's Draft Picks: Is Allen His Only Success?

[Draconator]

To TBD

 

 

[Bangarang]

Beane got us an elite franchise QB. 
 

Loved the Oliver and Ford picks. The need, talent and upside were all there. For whatever reason, they just haven’t turned into the impact players we hoped for. 
 

Overall, I’m not bothered by our draft picks. Hopefully one of Epenesa, Rousseau and Bashem turn into a high quality pass rusher. 

[cwater10]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Those are valuable cost-controlled assets that should be contributing

Isn’t this is completely contextual?  If you are drafting for the Jaguars or Jets, then you absolutely need immediate return and contribution from 2nd round picks.  When you draft for a loaded roster such as Beane has, the opportunity for immediate impact is marginal. You can afford to look for developmental guys and gamble a bit.  There was just a narrow sliver of light for starters to walk right in and start on this team.  We got one and turned to a more depth focused strategy.  Personally, I like the way they future proofed and built that depth.  That is not a trash bin deposit.  McDermott puts high value on rotational guys and flexibility on D.  I think that was missing last year and while not perfect, noticeable improvement this year. 

[Niagara Dude]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

I'll preface with sharing my opinion that I think Beane is a fantastic GM and that I've liked the vast majority of his early round picks.

 

But reading various topics and comments here, I feel like the general sentiment on this board is that Beane's only decent pick has been Josh Allen.

 

According to many, the list of busts include (but is not limited to):  Moss, Singletary, Knox, Edmunds, Ford, Oliver and Phillips.

 

Maybe I'm a homer; but it's more likely that some people/"fans," are just impossible to please.

 

Biggest miss was taking Ford who looks like a second round bust over Metcalf who looks like he will be a HOF WR 

[billsfan89]

Some fans are just impossible to please.

[Reader]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Gug - You make a good point - some people just can’t be pleased no matter what is done.  This thread makes a similar point(s). 

 

That basically is the crux of this that and a "did we win our last game?" mentality. Some people view this as baseball or hockey (get a good enough % and be happy) and some people view this as a basketball free-throw, if you didn't make the shot something is wrong and some people view this as Ricky Bobby "If you ain't first you're last."

 

The latter group tends to be very vocal and quick to call players busts.

[Success]

I don't understand the Oliver criticism in some of the posts.  He's incredibly disruptive.

 

[billybob71]

Beane is Gandalf the Grey but he is gonna transform into Gandalf the White after Bills win Super Bowl

[jkeerie]

3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

terrible idea.  you "get a look" at some other guys in preseason.  Not during an important divisional matchup.  

That's why I was surprised.  Perhaps I misunderstood his comment or he misspoke.  This doesn't sound like something this coaching staff would do.  He commented on how Philips did well against the run, so I rather think the rationale was to beef up the line to stop Henry with him and Obada based on what they've seen of AJ and Boogie versus the run to date.

[cwater10]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

While I don’t hate the idea of drafting for potential, especially for a primer position like pass rusher, nothing about Boogie Basham screams high ceiling… and with all the investment in the defensive line(thanks to the McD obsession with a rotation)it made a lot of sense to go else where in the 2nd this past draft. 

I understand the thought.  Yet, I do remember in the immediate draft reaction, Boogie was viewed as the more likely of the two edge draftees to make immediate impact.  Taken as a whole, the approach, at least to my biased eye, is consistent with the way that McBeane have approached each and every off season.  They focus on one or two position groups or core building pieces and just attack it.  

 

In 2018, it was all about landing the QB and then throw in Edmunds as the intended foundation of the D.  Two foundational pieces, one on each side of the ball.  Two big roster building boxes checked.

 

In 2019 they hit their obvious biggest weakness, the OL with a voluminous influx of new talent.  They brought in Morse, Nsekhe, Quinton Spain, Brian Winter, Feliciano and drafted Ford.  Is it possible that they build a certain bust rate into their calculus?  They similarly took some early swings at WR that same year with Beasley, Roberts and Brown.  Throw enough resources and see what sticks.  

 

In 2020 they attacked what was again viewed as their biggest need, a true #1 WR in acquiring Diggs.  They backed that up with depth pieces in Davis and Hodgins and pulled in Kumerow later in the year.  Similar to the previous off season, they took an early swing at an emerging need, DL.  Remember, at the time nobody saw Star opting out and leaving a hole in the middle of DL.  Go all the way back to 2017 and you can see the same pattern applied to rebuilding the secondary.  Bringing in new blood in Hyde, Poyer as FA and drafting White has worked out nicely.

 

In 2021, it was easy to see what was coming.  Bang, bang, bang... Rousseau, Basham, Obada, return of Star along with Epenesa from last year and you have your volume to throw at the wall and see what sticks.

 

This is simply how Beane and McDermott appear to roster build.  I think they've done a nice job.  But again, I am admittedly a perpetual optimist.  I thought Fitz and Stevie were the answer, so really... take this all with the grain of salt that it merits.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, cwater10 said:

Isn’t this is completely contextual?  If you are drafting for the Jaguars or Jets, then you absolutely need immediate return and contribution from 2nd round picks.  When you draft for a loaded roster such as Beane has, the opportunity for immediate impact is marginal. You can afford to look for developmental guys and gamble a bit.  There was just a narrow sliver of light for starters to walk right in and start on this team.  We got one and turned to a more depth focused strategy.  Personally, I like the way they future proofed and built that depth.  That is not a trash bin deposit.  McDermott puts high value on rotational guys and flexibility on D.  I think that was missing last year and while not perfect, noticeable improvement this year. 

 

Not for second round picks - it's pretty universal, you're getting a top-60 player on a cost-controlled 4-year contract.  If you hit on those picks - which you really should - you've got a solid starter at a below-market deal for four years.  And the reason I say you really should hit is that the first round is often where teams bet on significant upside, pushing high floor/lower ceiling players to Round 2.  It's a real goldmine in terms of value.  Beane has shopped exclusively for "need" in Round 2, however, fixating on specific players at specific positions.  Regardless, it's ridiculous that none of his 2nd round picks (3 years' worth) are contributing to the roster right now - that's almost unheard of around the league.

[JGMcD2]

51 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

While I don’t hate the idea of drafting for potential, especially for a primer position like pass rusher, nothing about Boogie Basham screams high ceiling… and with all the investment in the defensive line(thanks to the McD obsession with a rotation)it made a lot of sense to go else where in the 2nd this past draft. 

Yes, a ton has been invested in the defensive line and the offensive line. Which tells me they know it's important - regardless of whether those guys they've acquired have all panned out they've put resources into the trenches. 

 

They're trying to balance present and future. Tons invested into the defensive line today, but Hughes, Addison, Butler, Obada, Phillips and Zimmer are free agents next year. Boogie was the best player on their board and they took him. He may not have filled an immediate need now, but he will be an inhouse replacement next year. 

 

Creed Humphrey was the only guy I think could have fit a short term and long term need. I guess that's the debate, but I understand the logic behind drafting Basham. 

[JGMcD2]

18 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Not for second round picks - it's pretty universal, you're getting a top-60 player on a cost-controlled 4-year contract.  If you hit on those picks - which you really should - you've got a solid starter at a below-market deal for four years.  And the reason I say you really should hit is that the first round is often where teams bet on significant upside, pushing high floor/lower ceiling players to Round 2.  It's a real goldmine in terms of value.  Beane has shopped exclusively for "need" in Round 2, however, fixating on specific players at specific positions.  Regardless, it's ridiculous that none of his 2nd round picks (3 years' worth) are contributing to the roster right now - that's almost unheard of around the league.

I'd like to argue that it's almost unheard of... you're underestimating how bad teams are at drafting.

 

I LOVE your logic on the high floor/low ceiling stuff in RD2, but isn't that exactly what Beane has done? Ford (as a guard), Epenesa and Basham were all that exact type of player coming out of college. 

 

I think your logic on the top-60 player is a little flawed. They may be a top-60 player in that draft class but it doesn't make them an immediate starter in the NFL? Higher probability of being a starter but those players bust all the time... especially when you get to the back end of RD2 where Epenesa and Basham were taken.

 

It's something like over 40% of NFL starters were drafted after the second round - I may not understand the math here, but if 40% of the starters in this league were acquired after RD2 how can we just assume that a top-60 player in a given draft class should be a solid starter for 4 years? They have a higher probability of being a starter... but it's not a guarantee like you're making it out to be. 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by JGMcD2

[cwater10]

8 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Beane has shopped exclusively for "need" in Round 2, however, fixating on specific players at specific positions.

Agree on both counts.

 

8 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

it's ridiculous that none of his 2nd round picks (3 years' worth) are contributing to the roster right now - that's almost unheard of around the league.

Respectfully, its also unheard of in Buffalo.   Do you think that Miami believes that Epenesa is not a contributor?  How about Tua?  I'll bet he has an opinion.  Do you believe that Kansas City or Houston believe that Boogie is not a contributor?  This is a deep and stable roster.  At the risk of sounding like Dick Jauron, It's hard to make this 53 and harder still for young players to make the active 48 on every given Sunday, or whatever the specific number is.  Depth is a luxury.  We have it.  Is the roster perfect?  Nope.  Show me one that is.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Any one of us who actually witnessed those awesome 90's teams and then lived through the dog days of The Drought should have the sense to understand how great it is to be a Bills fan right now.  Anyone with a lick of sense should be crystal-clear on how good we have it with Beane and McD and all the talent this team has right now.  I honestly wonder if some of those who constantly complain about this player or that player not being "elite" or being a "bust" already ever regret sounding so !@#$ stupid in their many posts.  I won't name any names.  You know who they are.

 

Don't get caught up in the minutia and always have a good understanding of the big picture.  We are for-sure living in another 90's-like era right now.  Josh Allen is absolutely a super star and so clearly not a bust.  He's not going to win them all but he's the real-deal and at least we don't have to worry about that.  He's not only the real-deal, he's pretty freaking amazing.  Like "designed in a lab QB" amazing!

 

His supporting cast on offense and defense is far from perfect, but there are tons of guys here right now that we'll be looking back on fondly when it's all said and done on this current era.  This team is STACKED!  That is quite evident.  F=-k the haters.  I don't care what those crybabies think. 

 

Look, this version of the Buffalo Bills may not win it all either.  They are amazingly good and have had an incredible, what's becoming almost legendary turnaround in such a short time (just ask the rest of the league).  But there is no guarantee they actually pull it off and win it all.  I think there odds are very good, but that's a fact of life we must accept.  I would love to have these guys be the ones who finally do it.  But if they don't, my life will not be ruined.  This is so, so much better than everything we had to go through, even the late 90's Wade Phillips' teams who were very good (defensively mostly). 

 

We are witnessing something very, very special right now and it's time to shut up, sit back, and enjoy the friggin' ride!  I, for one, am so, so loving this ride right now.  I'm so glad I never bailed on this team and I'm still a Buffalo Bills fan right now.  It's so worth it all!

 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Apocalypse Nuts

[Big Turk]

No.

 

/Thread

 

[LABILLBACKER]

We still have the #1 offense and defense so I'm going to excuse myself from this conversation. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Success said:

I don't understand the Oliver criticism in some of the posts.  He's incredibly disruptive.

 

"Incredibly disruptive" to most of us, would be "disruptive like Aaron Donald" or "disruptive like Vita Vea" and (maybe I should say IMHO) Oliver just isn't on that level (and may never be). 

 

But he's unquestionably a solid NFL DT IMO.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure how you can say that… Moss is a solid player, Davis is no where to be found to this point last year after a solid rookie year and Epenesa has been inconsistent at best… I think the jury is out on both players.

 

I say that because to people who watch the game carefully, Davis is out there on 35% of the offensive snaps (range: 25-51%) and when targetted, his catch % has gone up this season.  He's being targeted less because he's not taking the snaps for an injured starter as he did in 8 games (2 by this point) last season, and because the Bills are running less 3 and 4 WR sets and more 2 back and 2 TE sets, but he's out there a similar percentage to what he was last year when not filling on for a starter, Doing His Job.  In most of the games where Davis wasn't replacing a starter, he saw 1 or 2 targets last season, just like this season.  I have no question that Davis is a solid NFL-quality WR.  He might not be Manny Sands Jr, then again, he might be - Sanders didn't see much playing time until his 4th year.

 

Epenesa has shown flashes, but I have questions as to whether he can maintain the body the Bills want him to maintain to do what they want him to do, and I'd like to see him actually making some tackles.  To date in 5 games he has 2 assists, 5 QB hits, no TFL and no sacks.  If the Bills didn't still feel he was a "work in progress", he wouldn't be inactive as he was last week.

[Mango]

35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"Incredibly disruptive" to most of us, would be "disruptive like Aaron Donald" or "disruptive like Vita Vea" and (maybe I should say IMHO) Oliver just isn't on that level (and may never be). 

 

But he's unquestionably a solid NFL DT IMO.

 

So, I think a big problem around the general Beane discussion in this thread is that the title blow. "Is Allen his only success?" Of course not. It is a really abrasive and aggressive thread title. 

Has Beane been good? Yup! Very good? Sure! Spectacular outside of Allen? Worthy of a conversation, but possibly? 

Oliver doesn't deserve to be the whipping boy, but he is the poster child for high investment and minimal return that is our DL.  Holistically I get the criticism.  We had the highest paid DL in the entire NFL in 2019 and 2020. And are the second highest paid DL in 2021.  But we haven't really been anywhere near the top of the league in QB pressure, sacks, etc. during that time. All while paying Star, signing Addison, and spending a bunch of top 100 picks on the group. Then AJ, Philips, Basham, are sometimes healthy scratches for an average group. The OL is similarly high priced and heavily reliant on FA. Before the past draft, Beane has only drafted a single OL, Cody Ford. (Spencer Brown is looking good). But the OL is the 5th highest priced line in the league. 

The length of the Bills SB window will be based on how well we do at consistently finding much cheaper upgrades in the draft to both lines. 

I am not a huge what is "x players" value. But if you are going to be spending top tier cash on a unit, it needs to be a top 5 unit in the league. 

 

EDIT: I have similar concerns over paying Edmunds. It isn't that I think he is a bad player, but our LB corp will be one of the most expensive in the league next year with his option. They are not a top 5 unit in the NFL. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Mango
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