Beane's Draft Picks: Is Allen His Only Success?

[Gugny]

49 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

I get that OP is setting up a strawman to argue against his own title but the title is ridiculous and stupid all in one.

 

This seems very unnecessary to me.  But if it makes you feel better, you do you.

[elijah]

Amazes me how often this topic comes up when analytics and stats consistently show the Bills as a top 3, if not the top, drafting team since Beane got here. Teams simply don’t draft perfect. In comparison to the rest of the league, Beane actually drafts at a very high level. 

[Doc]

Even if Josh were his only success, I’d say it’s a pretty frickin’ big success. 

[Albany,n.y.]

There's no such thing as a perfect drafting GM.  HOFer Bill Polian, who was GM from 1986-1992 had the following high draft choices during his time as Bills GM:

1st round: Ronnie Harmon

2nd round: Roland Mitchell, James Patton

3rd round: Leonard Burton, David Brandon, Bernard Ford, Darryl Wren  

[FilthyBeast]

18 minutes ago, elijah said:

Amazes me how often this topic comes up when analytics and stats consistently show the Bills as a top 3, if not the top, drafting team since Beane got here. Teams simply don’t draft perfect. In comparison to the rest of the league, Beane actually drafts at a very high level. 

 

Outside of Allen, he's done a great job finding quality starters/role players but I think the criticism (which I share) is he's not drafted any real stars/game changers especially on defense.

 

And as others have mentioned, our best players on defense (milano/white) weren't drafted by him but credit for at least resigning and keeping them here.

[JGMcD2]

57 minutes ago, Mango said:

The defensive roster was pretty good, noting 5 starters are still kicking around from the pre Beane era. 

Hahahaha this is so loaded 😂😂😂

 

5/6 of those guys were brought in during the off-season that Beane arrived (The other one is Hughes)… meaning McDermott brought them in less than 2 months before Beane arrived… to say there are 5 starters kicking around from the Pre-Beane era and use that as an argument for Beane not inheriting a bad roster is quite comical. 
 

They’re locked at the hip and operate under the same philosophy. The GM recommends and drafts players primarily based on the coaching staff’s scheme and philosophies 

 

Beane was going to be our GM from the moment McDermott was hired… do you really think that if Beane was hired in January we would have done anything significantly different from a personnel standpoint?
 

This is a bizarre exercise. 

11 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Outside of Allen, he's done a great job finding quality starters/role players but I think the criticism (which I share) is he's not drafted any real stars/game changers especially on defense.

Name me a GM that’s found more than 2 stars/game changers since 2018? The list is short. Now tell me how many have found one at the most important position on the field. 
 

It’s not easy… it takes a lot of things to go right. It’s just as hard to find an abundance of quality starters/role players like he has.

 

People need to recalibrate their expectations based off of reality… the reality is stars don’t grow on trees and drafting like Beane has makes him one of the best drafters in the league since taking over. 
 

Criticism is fine, as long as it’s based in reality. You need to compare him to his peers or else you’re just criticizing without understanding the full scope of the process. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by JGMcD2

[cwater10]

The reactions on this thread go straight to the reality of the NFL as a "week to week" league.  Just a few days ago the narrative was focused on the brilliance of Beane's rebuild of the DL in one offseason contrasted with KC's failed effort at rebuilding their OL.  

 

And so this week, we lose a last second gut wrenching road game against the most dominant running back in recent memory.  Does that dictate Beane's drafts to be considered failures?  Just a quick inquiry for the masses, exactly what team, or what GM out there has properly drafted in such a way to stop Derrick Henry?  I don't see much evidence of that BigFoot out there.  What Beane has built is a team capable of beating any team on any given day, in reality they beat them on most days.  Given the constraints of the salary cap era, that's no small accomplishment.  Would any of you trade rosters with Tennessee right now?

[Mango]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

Hahahaha this is so loaded 😂😂😂

 

5/6 of those guys were brought in during the off-season that Beane arrived (The other one is Hughes)… meaning McDermott brought them in less than 2 months before Beane arrived… to say there are 5 starters kicking around from the Pre-Beane era and use that as an argument for Beane not inheriting a bad roster is quite comical. 
 

They’re locked at the hip and operate under the same philosophy. The GM recommends and drafts players primarily based on the coaching staff’s scheme and philosophies 

 

Beane was going to be our GM from the moment McDermott was hired… do you really think that if Beane was hired in January we would have done anything significantly different from a personnel standpoint?
 

This is a bizarre exercise. 

 

Relax my man. This is a thread regarding Beane only. I didn't even say anything critical of the guy. Unsure why you are so offended here. 

And no, I do not think that while Brandon Beane was working a draft for another NFL organization, that he was working with McD on the Bills draft. And I most certainly don't think McD would ask or advise BB to do so while working for Ron Rivera, a guy he respects tremendously. 

[Coach Tuesday]

He has thrown three straight second round draft picks straight into the garbage.  Those are valuable cost-controlled assets that should be contributing.  Other than that, he’s done an above-average job on his non-Allen picks and the Allen pick was such a grand slam they should put up a statue of Beane outside the stadium, my two cents.

[st pete gogolak]

41 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

This seems very unnecessary to me.  But if it makes you feel better, you do you.

Well, are you arguing that Allen is Beane's only draft success or are you arguing that Allen is not Beane's only draft success.  If it is the later, then you've set up a straw man to knock down.  

26 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no such thing as a perfect drafting GM.  HOFer Bill Polian, who was GM from 1986-1992 had the following high draft choices during his time as Bills GM:

1st round: Ronnie Harmon

2nd round: Roland Mitchell, James Patton

3rd round: Leonard Burton, David Brandon, Bernard Ford, Darryl Wren  

Ronnie Harmon ended up being a pretty damn good football player.  Some with the Bills, mostly with the Chargers.  Unfortunately, he'll always be remembered in Buffalo for one play.

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Relax my man. This is a thread regarding Beane only. I didn't even say anything critical of the guy. Unsure why you are so offended here. 

And no, I do not think that while Brandon Beane was working a draft for another NFL organization, that he was working with McD on the Bills draft. And I most certainly don't think McD would ask or advise BB to do so while working for Ron Rivera, a guy he respects tremendously. 

That’s not what I was getting at… it’s loaded to list guys as “Pre-Beane” when they arrived the exact same off-season he did. 
 

I also didn’t say he was working for the Bills secretly… but to think having Beane 2 months earlier would significantly alter bringing in guys like Hyde, Poyer, Milano, White and Dawkins that same off-season doesn’t really line up with the way things function in a front office, particularly this one. 

[Chandler#81]

R-R!

[BillsBlue]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Oliver is fine and seems to be improving incrementally.  It often takes interior defensive lineman a couple of years to really hit their stride.

 

Ford, on the other hand, seems to be a certified bust at this point.  

 

Let's take a look at all of the major contributors to our current stud team drafted by Beane:

Allen, Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Neal, Knox, Singletary, Oliver, Bass, Gabe Davis, Moss, Spencer Brown and Rousseau.  And we've gotten contributions from Dane Jackson, Darryl Johnson, Jaquan Johnson, Harrison Phillips.  Guys like Epenesa, Basham and Sweeney also show promise.

THIS!!!!!!! BINGO!!!PIN THE TAIL ON THE DONKEY 

[Gugny]

16 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Well, are you arguing that Allen is Beane's only draft success or are you arguing that Allen is not Beane's only draft success.  If it is the later, then you've set up a straw man to knock down.  

 

I've not made any argument.  I opened a topic for discussion (go figure, on a message board).

[Rigotz]

So... we're saying that Knox is a bust now? 

Top 10 TE in yards per game, Top 10 in receiving yards, #1 in Receiving TD's, has shown great blocking skills... and he's a bust.

 

Jesus.

[Figster]

Being a GM its not just about the draft. We all know how hit and miss it can be IMO. Buffalo still has higher round draft picks developing on a young football team. Our 1st and 2nd round draft choices from the latest draft are a good example. Not difference makers, seriously? A WR drafted in a later round is considered by some to be one of the biggest steals of the draft.

 

Thanks Gugs

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

Oliver is a good player, but a bust for where we took him.  We won't have a shot at a pick that high for a long time, and we took a guy who's a rotational DT for us and may or may not be given a second contract here. 

 

Just a note here that while I believe you are using "rotational DT for us" as a negative,  ALL DLmen are rotational in McDermott/Frazier's system.  So it really shouldn't be a "knock" on Oliver to be a "rotational DT".

 

All GMs hit and miss in the draft, including on high picks.  The success rate to get a good player (not a superstar, just a solid NFL-caliber player) is something like 50% at the top of the first round, 30% in the bottom half and top of the second, and goes down from there.  This is going to be exacerbated for Beane because he has a pattern of going after high ceiling/low floor guys who have gaps in their resume.  I "get it", it's a way to cultivate disproportionate success at a lower draft slot, but it will mean a higher "miss rate".  Anyway, one reason for the relatively low "success rate" with top picks, is that it's hard to predict who will really stay focused and dedicated on improving as a football player once "generational wealth" lands in his lap.

 

So if you look at our picks in the first 4 rounds from the "draft a solid NFL-caliber player" perspective":

 2018: Allen, Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson.  I would say 3 out of 4.  People diss on Edmunds, but he's plainly doing what McD and Frazier want for the most part or they wouldn't have picked up his 5th yr.  Phillips is looking like a "Does Not Meet Expectations", Taron Johnson is looking like an "Exceeds Expectations".

2019: Oliver, Ford, Singletary, Knox.  I think they like Ed as a solid DLmen, the question will be is he showing the consistency and development they want?  I "get it" that at #9, people want Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack, but they were drafted considerably higher than #9.  This kind of looked like 0 of 4 last season, now 2 of 4, maybe 3.

2020: Epenesa, Moss, Davis.  I dunno about Epenesa's benching last week (never a good sign) but I also think it didn't work out like the Bills wanted.  At least 2 out of 3, maybe 3 out of 3.  And I would call swapping our 1st round pick for Diggs a total Slam.

2021: Rousseau, Basham, Brown: Early to call, but at least 2 out of 3 and Basham looks to be a contributor, just needs to grow into the role they're asking of him.

 

JMO.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, BillsFan1 said:

Oliver and Ford are two guys that don't seem to be measuring up.

 

 

While you arent wrong, and I am not excusing their performance (or lack there of), the entire 2019 Draft Class pretty much sucked or does suck.

 

Outside of Murray and Bosa, and maybe a handful of other players, it is looking like a very weak class all around.

 

If you look at the player selections, I'm not sure what else Beane should have done at #9.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_NFL_Draft

 

Forget everyone that went ahead of us because they are not options (although half of those top 8 picks suck too).

 

Looking at the rest of the list... no one jumps off the page as the obvious "We missed on THIS guy". Maybe Montez Sweat. Maybe DK Metcalf in the 2nd (but that likely means no Diggs trade the next year, so pick your guy there).

 

Just a weak draft class. It happens.

 

And sometimes you get the exact opposite like the class of 2011. Whooo wee! What a class of talent that was...

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Oliver is a good player, but a bust for where we took him.  We won't have a shot at a pick that high for a long time, and we took a guy who's a rotational DT for us and may or may not be given a second contract here.  

 

Cody Ford is another massive bust.  

 

 

 

 

See above. Not sure who else we shouldve taken, especially at 9. And any/every DL we take will be a "rotational DL" for us. That is how we operate. Not Ed's fault.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no such thing as a perfect drafting GM.  HOFer Bill Polian, who was GM from 1986-1992 had the following high draft choices during his time as Bills GM:

1st round: Ronnie Harmon

2nd round: Roland Mitchell, James Patton

3rd round: Leonard Burton, David Brandon, Bernard Ford, Darryl Wren  

Ronnie Harmon made one of the worst plays in Bills history ... but he had a very good NFL career. He was an elite receiver out of the backfield in SD for a long time.

[BuffaloBill]

Gug - You make a good point - some people just can’t be pleased no matter what is done.  This thread makes a similar point(s).