Beane's Draft Picks: Is Allen His Only Success?

[CheshireCT]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Not every player drafted is going to be a hit. No teams do that.

 

Exactly.

 

People seem to forget that we're talking about human beings. No matter how much due diligence you do, it's impossible to predict 100% how the career is going to go for ANY player. Oftentimes it's off the field where people have success or failure. That's why we have #1 overall picks that are busts and undrafted players who become hall of famers.

[John from Riverside]

In order to answer this question we have to determine what a "successful" pick is

 

Do they all need to be top of the league in order to be good picks

 

or

 

On a championship contending team....how many are starters?

 

IMO.....if you are a starter or see significant playing time on a team....that is a "hit".....if you are on won of those with Super Bowl potential....it is DEF a hit

[whorlnut]

I’ll say this…if you hit on a qb then everything else should be gravy. You just can’t win consistently in this league without the qb. That said, Beane has done a solid job drafting. I am starting to question the Oliver pick at 9, but then again lots of people were calling him the best defensive player in the draft. So who could blame him?  Sometimes when a guy you don’t think will be there you make quick decisions. Either way, I’m happy with Beane. Look forward to many more years with him as GM…

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

In order to answer this question we have to determine what a "successful" pick is

 

Do they all need to be top of the league in order to be good picks

 

or

 

On a championship contending team....how many are starters?

 

IMO.....if you are a starter or see significant playing time on a team....that is a "hit".....if you are on won of those with Super Bowl potential....it is DEF a hit

 

Nate Peterman and Aaron Maybin were starters.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I'm as critical of Beane as anyone. He's not the genius or wizard some on here claim. But to be honest he seems better than your average GM.  He has more hits than misses. I can rail on Edmunds and Oliver for not being stars but they have started virtually every game they have been healthy to play.  The issue with those tow players is really production hasnt matched draft status.  I wanted Dobbins over Epenesa but its still much too early to give up on Epenesa. His mid round cheap selections have been very good. Johnson, Davis, Bass and Knox are big time contributors.  

Ford is the biggest bust. If he was good enough to play RT they would not have had to retain Williams and they could have used a pick last year on a C/G.

He got the QB right so that forgives a multitude of misses.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

Nate Peterman and Aaron Maybin were starters.

Then maybe it should be defined as consistent starters as those two weren’t starters for very long

 

[Doc Brown]

13 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

Biggest miss was taking Ford who looks like a second round bust over Metcalf who looks like he will be a HOF WR 

There's a lot of teams in that boat as far as passing over Metcalf goes.  Imagine being the Cardinals and drafting Andy Isabella two spots earlier who is basically Arizona's fifth WR who's been a healthy scratch most games this season.  The Pats picking Harry in the first round that year will always put a smile on my face.

 

Let's say we did take Metcalf.  Would he have developed in Buffalo (Allen's 2nd year) like he did in Seattle in his rookie year?  He had a future HOF QB in Wilson at the top of his game to throw him the ball and nobody's better at throwing the deep ball than Wilson.  His rookie year was basically running only vertical routes and then he developed slowly into a complete WR.  I don't know if he improves that quickly into a complete WR if we drafted him.  Do we make the trade for Diggs with him on the roster who was crucial to Allen's development?  I just hesitate to label that as a major mistake given where this offense is now.  For all those reasons I'd pry take Elgton Jenkins over Metcalf if Beane had a do over in the 2nd round.

 

[TheBrownBear]

22 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

I just mentioned this in another thread, but it's worth mentioning again...

 

I think Beane has done a great job building a team that can rack up wins in the regular season, but this is not a team built to win in the playoffs because we have no bullies in the trenches. Just a bunch of finesse players that can get the job done for the most part but struggle mightily on both sides of the ball against physical teams that 'take it to you'. And we will no doubt see the Titans or a similar team in the playoffs and that's where our season ends IMO.

 

So assuming we exit the playoffs early and/or don't reach the SB again this year, we'll find out how good a GM Beane really is because big time changes will be needed on the OL/DL in the offseason and not sure we'll have the cap space to successfully navigate that and can't rely soly on the draft to fix.

I just can't agree with this.  This seems like a hot take based solely on Monday's second half.  We beat two "physical" "take it to you" running teams in the playoffs last year in the Colts and the Ravens.  We lost to the speed and "finesse" Chiefs.

[TheBrownBear]

19 hours ago, jkeerie said:

That's why I was surprised.  Perhaps I misunderstood his comment or he misspoke.  This doesn't sound like something this coaching staff would do.  He commented on how Philips did well against the run, so I rather think the rationale was to beef up the line to stop Henry with him and Obada based on what they've seen of AJ and Boogie versus the run to date.

I think it's as simple as us having a ton of bodies available on the defensive line, these guys all showing out equally or close to it in practice, and McDermott feeling that these dudes earned some run and wanted to see if it might even take the defense to the next level.  Also makes sense rolling with the veteran types in a game where lane discipline and run defense are a high priority.  Obviously, it doesn't seem to have worked out given Henry's production and the loss, but who knows, we might have been even worse up front with Epenesa and Basham?

[BananaB]

Too many high expectations by people on this board. Very few turn out to be the best at their position. Allen was obviously a great pick but Beane has done real good job of drafting guys that contribute on a weekly basis

[BillsShredder83]

23 hours ago, Mango said:

So it might make sense to go through the depth chart and assign FA, Draft, Before Beane (BB)
 

Per the Bills Website: 

WR - Sanders - FA

LT - Dawkins - BB

LG - Feliciano - FA

C- Morse - FA

RG- Williams- FA

RT- Brown- Draft

TE-Knox - Draft

QB- Allen- Draft

RB- Singletary - Draft

WR - Beasley- FA

WR- Diggs - FA - Trade

 

LDE- Rousseau - Draft

DT - Oliver - Draft

DT- Star - FA

RDE- Hughes - BB

MLB- Edmunds - Draft

WLB- Milano - BB

NCB- Johnson - Draft

CB- White- BB

CB- Wallace - UDFA (draft)

S- Poyer - BB

S- Hyde - BB

 

Totals: 
Draft - 9 Starters

FA - 7 starters

BB - 6 Starters

 

His best draft pick to date is Allen hands down. I don't think he inherited the terrible roster some here like to say. The defensive roster was pretty good, noting 5 starters are still kicking around from the pre Beane era. 

Rousseau is probably his best, right out of the gate good, starter. 

He has struggled to fill OL, we have average performance for the 5th highest paid unit in the league. It is OK, but also doesn't really have any draft picks playing. Letting Wyatt Teller go is on both him and McD. 

The real Beane test will be how he can draft for immediate impact while managing the cap going forward. Like next year, with Edumunds 5th year option we will have the 6th highest paid unit? If we re-sign Edmunds, that number will stay about the same, and we will need to do a much better job of filling the OL and WR rooms with draft picks than we have in order to save cash. (I have faith in Davis and Stevenson, they just aren't playing much at the moment). How does he replace Hyde and Poyer? Do you resign Oliver, at what cost, or who replaces him? The Star decision will be at about the same time. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The thing ill add on this point, especially having seen it a few times.... sometimes players need to experience some failure or let down, to mentally get to where they can thrive!  Anybody think if Josh had skipped JUCO and went to Floprida or Alabama or some SEC team hed be the same player today?  Maybe, but i think it primed him for success.

 

None of us were there to see Teller or talk to him, but i think its pretty unlikely he just was this player here and someone from our staff didnt catch on. Is it possible?  Sure. Would i bet my money on that being the case? Nah no way.  I think its just part of the transformation this league has on guys

[r00tabaga]

Don't forget Bass-O-Matic 

[Motor26]

It’s not possible for a team to be as successful as the Bills are and have their GM only hit on one pick. Edmunds is looking good, Taron has been very good, Knox was having an incredible year before his hand injury, Moss and Singletary aren’t great but the IOL is more of the problem. Rousseau and Spencer Brown look to be long term starters. No GM hits on every pick, but Beane’s drafting has been very good IMO. Just needs to hit on a 2nd round pick. 

[FlaFitz1]

On 10/20/2021 at 9:37 AM, ScottLaw said:

His 2nd round picks look pretty meh or bad at the moment…. No excuse for having two 2nd round picks inactive in a big conference match up…. Ford is a bust, Epenesea has flashed but really hasn’t don’t much, Singletary is ok, Moss is slightly better but neither are really good players. 
 

Oliver is a good player despite the inconsistency, Knox looks to have improved into a solid player, I think Rousseau will end up being a great player…. I was critical of his picks prior to the season but overall he’s been above average with the draft outside of Allen and also had a few whiffs….. unfortunately it looks like Cody Ford was a big whiff as they passed on a great WR and traded away an all pro Guard in favor of him. 

 

 

I'm sure someone may have pointed this out but the reason the had those two inactive is because they wanted to be able to rotate 5 DTs in an effort to stop Henry.

 

Epenesea has flashed and considering what he had to deal with last season he's come a long way.  Basham has also flashed.  Moss is not slightly better than Singletary and I don't figure out why he gets more snaps than Motor.  However, that's a coaching issue not a front office one.

 

 

 

Just going through year by year Allen and Edmunds were very good picks.  Landing a solid DT, albeit with some injury issues, Harrison and one of the best starting nickles in the league in the 3rd and 4th rounds plus depth and special teams player Neal in the 5th is a very good draft.  Teller turned into a pro bowl guard but for a different team while McCloud is a very good return specialist for the Steelers.  How is class not a drafting success?

 

Oliver has been good not great but he's been the best DT from his draft class plus was forced to play out of position last year.  Ford does look like a bust right now.  Singletary and Knox are very solid selections in the 3rd round.  Joseph was a gamble, high risk, no reward because he went on IR and was released before taking a snap for the Bills but he was a 5th - oh well.  Juquan Johnson has been solid on special teams and when his number has been called but buried behind Hype and Poyer.   Darryl Johnson was taken in the 7th and before being traded for a 6th he was excellent on special teams and if the Bills weren't as deep as they are at DE he would be featuted in their rotation.   Tommy Sweeney is the other 7th round pick and when available has a been a good blocker and good on special teams.   Not sure what else you would want from this class?

 

The 2000 draft class had it tough and had to deal with an unprecedented season.  Still, as it's been said, Epenesa has flashed this year and has the quickest get off of any DE according to Next Gen Stats.  Moss has been solid in his rotational roll.  Davis was a huge surprise when asked to fill in for Brown last year and his 599 yards was 5th among all rookie WRs and his 7 TD catches was 2nd.  He would have a bigger role this year if not for Sanders.  Fromm was their "Covid QB" and couldn't practice with the team and is now on the Practice Squad.   Bass has been MONEY!!!  Hodgins missed last season with an injury is on the practice squad this year.  Dane Jackson is their back up to Wallace.    While it's too early to judge, especially because of the unique circumstances they had to go through, this class looks solid top to bottom.

 

As for this year's class way to early to judge but of their first 3 selections 2 are starting and the 3rd has been solid in his rotational role.  While the rest of the class had an up hill climb to even sniff the roster due to how deep Beane made it through the draft, free agency and trades.

Edited October 21, 2021 by FlaFitz1

[Matt_In_NH]

No Allen is not his only good pick but that was the pick he most crushed it on!  And because he got the QB, the most important player by a million, he will be regarded as a good GM and keep his job and his teams will win more than they lost for the next decade plus  There are numerous other reasons why he is good/great.  Are all moves perfect, nope, no ones are, the personnel game is part science, part art and part luck, overall he is pretty darn good in my estimation.

[JGMcD2]

11 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

He got the QB right so that forgives a multitude of misses.

Yes - it gives him more room for error.
 

Everyone misses more than they hit - you should not have to be forgiven for your misses. You should be applauded for your hits.
 

It’s a media/fan driven thing that’s really silly when you look at the data on drafting. TV analysts and fans want to cherry pick and say “He took player X, but look player Y was on the board and he’s an All-Pro now.” It doesn’t work that way and it’s created total misunderstanding as to how draft success should be measured. 

 

Honestly, he could’ve missed on JA and would still be better than an average drafter when compared to his peers. 
 

We really need people here to understand how difficult it is to draft and that Beane has been better than his peers (and way better than average) since taking over. It’s not just because of JA. He’s out drafted pretty much everyone when you look at each individual draft.

Edited October 21, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Saint Doug]

I think the majority of his draft picks are “solid” players. That said, I also think being on the Bills elevates their play and they’d probably be busts if not on the Bills. 

[ColoradoBills]

After McDermott got the HC job back in early 2017 I believe there was already a "gentlemen's agreement" that Beane would be

the eventual GM.  There was a lot of speculation about this right after the Beane hire.

 

I believe there was "conversations" between McDermott and Beane about the 2017 FA and the draft.

I got no real evidence I just think that is what happened.

 

Beane got 'spurned" from taking over the GM job during the whole Gettleman/Hurney/Beane thing and I believe he was done with Carolina.

When Gettleman didn't get fired (he did a few months later only to have Hurney take over) he was already going to look for a new job.

McDermott had to know all of this and they became a team as soon as Sean got the HC job.

 

Hurney knew he f'd up and since has been a good friend with Beane thus the closeness between the two of them.

 

Footnote:  Gettleman went to the NYG in 2018 and has ruined the team since his return.

[CheshireCT]

1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:

I think the majority of his draft picks are “solid” players. That said, I also think being on the Bills elevates their play and they’d probably be busts if not on the Bills. 

 

Totally. And what we often don't see as fans is what constitutes "doing the job" on the field. We don't understand all the assignments and what the players are being asked to do. Of course we like to see the big plays, but oftentimes a player is executing his assignment in a non-sexy way. The coaches know that, the fans don't. We watched a lot of Patriots teams crush us during the drought that had a bunch of seemingly "solid" players + Tom Brady. 

[Nextmanup]

The fact of the matter is that draft misses are common, across the entire league.

The so called "experts" making the selections aren't nearly as effective as they should be.