The Edmunds Report - Week 6, Bills v. Titians, 10/18/21

[Freddie's Dead]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Agreed. This is spot on. It's impossible to play decent pass defense in this situation.

It's virtually impossible to be responsible for Derrick Henry in a serious way and also cover AJ Brown. 

 

The play action killed us.  You had to respect it with Henry, and the Bills did not have a plan to combat it.

[thenorthremembers]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Agreed. This is spot on. It's impossible to play decent pass defense in this situation.

It's virtually impossible to be responsible for Derrick Henry in a serious way and also cover AJ Brown. 

His responsibility wasn't to cover both Brown and Henry on the same play, his responsibility was determined by the offensive playcall.  It's football 101.   Even the Linebackers on my JV football team have gap responsibility for a running back on a run play, and need to drop into a zone if its a pass play, its not complicated.   Edmunds had the middle zone on those A.J. Brown routes and failed to drop into the zone because he got sucked forward by the play action thinking he had to fill the run gap.  

 

The Bills play zone coverage, so my guess (again I dont have All 22) is that Wallace was supposed to pass the coverage off over the middle of the field, which is why he was 1-2 yards off Brown when he caught the ball on those crossers.  Maybe the Bills were in man coverage, but I highly doubt they switched to man principles against AJ Brown and Julio Jones where their Cornerbacks would be grossly overmatched in both size and speed.

[Freddie's Dead]

8 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

His responsibility wasn't to cover both Brown and Henry on the same play, his responsibility was determined by the offensive playcall.  It's football 101.   Even the Linebackers on my JV football team have gap responsibility for a running back on a run play, and need to drop into a zone if its a pass play, its not complicated.   Edmunds had the middle zone on those A.J. Brown routes and failed to drop into the zone because he got sucked forward by the play action thinking he had to fill the run gap.  

 

The Bills play zone coverage, so my guess (again I dont have All 22) is that Wallace was supposed to pass the coverage off over the middle of the field, which is why he was 1-2 yards off Brown when he caught the ball on those crossers.  Maybe the Bills were in man coverage, but I highly doubt they switched to man principles against AJ Brown and Julio Jones where their Cornerbacks would be grossly overmatched in both size and speed.

 

Football knowledge, cogent sentences with good grammar and spelling...  What the ***** you doing on this board?

[thenorthremembers]

1 minute ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Football knowledge, cogent sentences with good grammar and spelling...  What the ***** you doing on this board?

It's an illness.

[Max Fischer]

I appreciate the effort but I really wonder if we can fairly analyze a player who is "off-screen" a lot.

 

Personally, I'm a Edmunds-believer and think he had one of his best games. He was all over the place, affecting throwing lanes, taking up space and made positive contributions on many plays. Moreover, where you may see a "neutral" play, I more often see TE being the correct spot to make a contribution. While I'm apt to give TE the benefit of the doubt, I have no doubt his detractors will do the opposite. 

 

The way I see it, the defense actually played pretty well in the first half. The one big play was a killer but overall, they did well. The downside was the two long second half drives where the Titans just made at the better play.  Still think the Bills can beat them three out of four. 

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

I'm loving this.  The haterz were giving me crap and questioning my objectivity, and now the loverz are taking issue with my grades.  When both sides are pissed at you, you're probably doing it right.  So good to discuss football in a thread, rather than watching posters question the ancestry or mental stability/age of the OP.  Keep it coming!

[34-78-83]

54 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

His responsibility wasn't to cover both Brown and Henry on the same play, his responsibility was determined by the offensive playcall.  It's football 101.   Even the Linebackers on my JV football team have gap responsibility for a running back on a run play, and need to drop into a zone if its a pass play, its not complicated.   Edmunds had the middle zone on those A.J. Brown routes and failed to drop into the zone because he got sucked forward by the play action thinking he had to fill the run gap.  

 

The Bills play zone coverage, so my guess (again I dont have All 22) is that Wallace was supposed to pass the coverage off over the middle of the field, which is why he was 1-2 yards off Brown when he caught the ball on those crossers.  Maybe the Bills were in man coverage, but I highly doubt they switched to man principles against AJ Brown and Julio Jones where their Cornerbacks would be grossly overmatched in both size and speed.

Those WR's getting open over the middle in the 2nd half were past the drop point of the LB's... So your point is a good one in general, but not necessarily a detriment on the LB's in this case. The Safeties and Corners needed to pick up the slack there.

Edited October 20, 2021 by 34-78-83

[thenorthremembers]

21 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Those WR's getting open over the middle in the 2nd half were past the drop point of the LB's... So your point is a good one in general, but not necessarily a detriment on the LB's in this case. The Safeties and Corners needed to pick up the slack there.

Understood.   Without seeing where the safeties lined up pre-snap I wouldnt know the depth.   I would have thought they were in cover 2 giving Edmunds a sink depth of 10-12 yards, and just by memory it seemed like he had no real depth at all.   I have to get that All 22!

[34-78-83]

5 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Understood.   Without seeing where the safeties lined up pre-snap I wouldnt know the depth.   I would have thought they were in cover 2 giving Edmunds a sink depth of 10-12 yards, and just by memory it seemed like he had no real depth at all.   I have to get that All 22!

I am going a lot off of Erik Turner's film review and my recollection of the game... The LB's honored the run first on play action plays, and thus were sucked in a bit naturally. Those passes across the middle were mostly between 10 and 20 yards. Corners were trail technique on the routes to the inside it looked like as well. Safeties were just a hair late coming down. I saw even the corners biting on the PA all night as well at different times.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

His responsibility wasn't to cover both Brown and Henry on the same play, his responsibility was determined by the offensive playcall.  It's football 101.   Even the Linebackers on my JV football team have gap responsibility for a running back on a run play, and need to drop into a zone if its a pass play, its not complicated.   Edmunds had the middle zone on those A.J. Brown routes and failed to drop into the zone because he got sucked forward by the play action thinking he had to fill the run gap.  

 

The Bills play zone coverage, so my guess (again I dont have All 22) is that Wallace was supposed to pass the coverage off over the middle of the field, which is why he was 1-2 yards off Brown when he caught the ball on those crossers.  Maybe the Bills were in man coverage, but I highly doubt they switched to man principles against AJ Brown and Julio Jones where their Cornerbacks would be grossly overmatched in both size and speed.

Are the LBs on your JV team responsible for accounting for Derrick Henry possibly running the ball?

[JohninMinn.]

15 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

The Week 6 Bills v. Titians edition of The Edmunds Report is here.  I will state what I see on a play, then assign a point system -1, 0, +1, and keep a running total.  I'll ignore plays where he's not involved and only look at coverage if he's onscreen (I don't have the All-22).  I'll also flag plays for the haterz so they can skip the rest.  Based on feedback, I'll also be looking at plays where 49 is rushing the passer to determine his relative effectiveness there.  Let's go to the tape.

 

Titians 1st possession

3rd and 11, TIT 9 - 49 drops deep, Tanny flips to TE, 49 makes tackle (HATERZ PLAY), but after giving up first down (-1,-1)

 

Titians 2nd possession

1st and 10, TIT 21 - Off tackle run to Henry, 49 blocked at point of attack, sheds block to cleanup on Groot's tackle (0,-1)

2nd and 10, TIT 21 - 49 held by Lewan on screen block, Henry trips and Tanny throws INC, but 49 was in position to make the tackle (0,-1)

3rd and 10, TIT 21 - 49 drops, Tanny has nowhere to go, scrambles, 49 runs right at him and Tanny air mails a ball into no man's land (+1,0)

 

Titians 3rd possession

1st and 10, TIT 34 - Toss sweep right to Henry, 49 chases down the line, sheds a block and is in the pile tackling Henry for a 3 yard gain (+1,+1)

 

Titians 4th possession

1st and 10, TIT 24 - Middle run to Henry, 49 lined up over left tackle, blocked further left by Saffold, as Henry hits the hole, 49 is at least 5 yards away and has no chance (HATERZ PLAY), Poyer, Taron Johnson, and Tre' White all held, no call on any of them, you know what happened next (-1,0)

 

Titians 5th possession

1st and 10, TIT 21 - Off tackle run left to Henry, 49 blocked in the back past the hole by 64 (no call), 49 gets a shoulder into Henry and Star and Groot clean up for a 2-yard gain (+1,+1)

2nd and 8, TIT 23 - 49 follows tight end in motion, then when Tanny scrambles, drops into zone following Tanny's eyes, as Tanny airmails it over Rogers's head (+1,+2)

1st and 10, BUF 29 - Pitch to Henry left, Addison does his best Josh Norman impersonation while eating Henry's stiff arm, but slows him up just enough for 49 to come in and lay the wood for a 3 yard TFL (+1,+3)  

3rd and 6, BUF 25 - 49 rushes the passer, not much penetration, looked ineffective, Tanny throws INC (0,+3)

 

Titians 6th possession

1st and 10, BUF 11 - 49 blocked by Saffold on Henry run, 49 sheds block and makes tackle (HATERZ PLAY), but not until Henry makes a 7-yard gain and Lewan gets racked up (-1,+2) 

2nd and 3, BUF 4 - 49 on right side of D in front of Addison who crashes down and bites hard on the RPO to Henry, while Tanny runs into the gaping hole left by Addison and 49 is blocked to the outside by 71 (HATERZ PLAY).  49 gets his left arm on Tanny's package, but that's it, as Tanny fights through Poyer's tackle into the EZ (-1,+1) 

 

Titians 7th possession

1st and 10, TIT 19 - Henry off-tackle left, 49 makes the tackle, but after a 6-yard gain (-1,0)

 

First half observations

I understand the haterz frustration with 49.  While he didn't exactly hurt us, he didn't exactly help us either.  We needed someone to step up on D and make a play, and no one did.  Tanny did not throw his way at all in the first half, but as we know, that changed in the second half.

 

Titians 8th possession

1st and 10, TIT 33 - 49 bites on PA to Henry, then drops, but too late, Tanny complete to AJ in the hole behind 49, 8 yard completion (-1,0)

2nd and 2, TIT 41 - 49 run blitz in to left of offense, runs right for 1st down (0,0)

2nd and 10 TIT 44 - Henry off tackle left, cuts back to middle, 49 blocked out of play (HATERZ PLAY), chases Henry, Hyde gets trucked for 19 yard gain (-1,-1)

2nd and 10, BUF 37 - Henry middle run, 49 crashes down from left side of defense and is in on the gang tackle (+1,0)

1st and 10, BUF 15 - Henry middle run, 49 crashes down to right side of defense, overruns the hole, trips and lands on his stomach (HATERZ PLAY, but well-deserved, 49 looked stupid on this one), Henry with a 4 yard gain. (-1,-1)

 

Titians 9th possession

1st and 10, TIT 35 - Henry left screen, 49 chases, misses tackle but cleaned up for 4-yard gain (0,-1)

3rd and 5, TIT 40 - 49 drops, as well as Obada on a zone blitz, Tanny (gotta give it up to the little *****) hits AJ for 12 yard first down reception in the seam between 49 and Obada (-1,-2)

1st and 10, BUF 47 - Delay draw to Henry, 49 fights off the block and tackles Henry for a 2 yard gain (+1,-1) NEED MORE OF THIS, 49!!

2nd and 17, BUF 32 - Quick slant to AJ, 49 makes immediate tackle for 6 yard gain (+1,0)

3rd and 11, BUF 26 - 49 drops, Tanny dumps to Jones on the crossing route, 49 makes immediate tackle for 4 yard gain to force the FG (+1,+1)

 

Titians 10th possession

1st and 10, TIT 30 - Henry middle run, 49 fights off blocks to help cleanup Star and Taron's tackle for no gain (+1,+2)

1st and 10, BUF 34 - Henry off tackle left, 49 fights through traffic and punks Henry high while Zim gets him low for a 1 yard TFL (+1,+3)

2nd and 11, BUF 35 - 49 drops, Tanny hits 15 on crossing route, with 49 again making an immediate tackle for a 5 yard gain (+1,+4)

3rd and 6, BUF 29 - 49 drops, Tanny goes back to 15, who avoids the tackle by 49 for the 1st down (-1,+3)

2nd and 1, BUF 13 - Henry off-tackle left, Saffold pwns 49 and opens a hole big enough for me to hit (HATERZ PLAY) and Henry walks into the EZ practically untouched (-1,+2)

 

Conclusions

1.  49 was not the reason the Bills lost this game, but he didn't do much to win it, either.  

2.  As a pass rusher, 49 doesn't have much to offer.  It's just not his game.

3.  49 was responsible for 5 catches for 35 yards, no PDs or INTs.

4.  I have to agree with the haterz this time that we needed 49 to make a few more plays this week.

 

49 grades overall:

Squeelers - B+ (6 HATERZ PLAYs)

Fish - INC (DVR #### the bed)

WTF's - B- (7 HATERZ PLAYs)

Erlers - A+ (2 HATERZ PLAYs)

Chefs - A- (11 HATERZ PLAYs)

Titians - C (7 HATERZ PLAYs)

With his speed and wingspan Frazier should send him up the middle between Oliver and star. He's too much of a floater.

[thenorthremembers]

55 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Are the LBs on your JV team responsible for accounting for Derrick Henry possibly running the ball?

Only during high level business meetings.

[LABILLBACKER]

I think this was one of his weaker games. You could see Milano wasn't 100%. Tremaine did have some nice solo tackles on King Henry but when he backpedaled into open space guarding no-one, I just scratch my head. I know that's what he's told to do but it seems so useless. 

[Freddie's Dead]

41 minutes ago, JohninMinn. said:

With his speed and wingspan Frazier should send him up the middle between Oliver and star. He's too much of a floater.

 

Interesting idea.  I think they have it set up so he and Milano fill the gaps on both side of the center, but I see 49 lining up over the right or left tackle a lot.  

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

I honestly can't fault us for running a QB sneak on 4th and half a yard.  I don't care if the other team knows it's coming..  We have a 6'5 tank of a QB.  It should be automatic.  Maybe switch up the gaps he attacks on the sneak, but if you can't get a half yard with Josh Allen sneaking, you need new OL personnel (which we already knew).  Still, if we go shotgun RPO and Moss/Allen get blown up in the backfield or the pass is defended - EVERYONE is screaming that we should've QB sneaked it. 

 

 

Sorry, this just doesn't make sense.

 

Yeah, it's true that if you can't make a sneak if the other team is lining up their normal personnel and formation then yeah, there's something wrong. But that's not what they did.

 

They took out one of their LBs and substituted a 345 pound second team nose tackle, Naquan Jones. Then they moved their 5-tech in  to the 3-hole.

They compressed their formation and they brought in a personnel grouping specifically to stop runs between the guards. They had two nose tackles in there. 

 

Teams can stop something if they want. You can do it. You overcommit, and you can stop that one play. And that's what the Titans did on that play. The problem for the Titans with doing that is that it creates weaknesses elsewhere. But we didn't take advantage of those weaknesses elsewhere. They said, "OK, if you want a first down here, you're not getting it through the middle." And we tried it through the middle anyway.

 

It was a bad choice.

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

I appreciate the effort but I really wonder if we can fairly analyze a player who is "off-screen" a lot.

 

Personally, I'm a Edmunds-believer and think he had one of his best games. He was all over the place, affecting throwing lanes, taking up space and made positive contributions on many plays. Moreover, where you may see a "neutral" play, I more often see TE being the correct spot to make a contribution. While I'm apt to give TE the benefit of the doubt, I have no doubt his detractors will do the opposite. 

 

The way I see it, the defense actually played pretty well in the first half. The one big play was a killer but overall, they did well. The downside was the two long second half drives where the Titans just made at the better play.  Still think the Bills can beat them three out of four. 

 

 

 

 

That.

 

For instance, on the first play he calls a haterz play, Edmunds is off-screen, then comes running in to make the play on the short pass through the middle for a 10 yard gain and a first down. 

 

He calls it a haterz play, but it's simply that Edmunds' job wasn't there. You can see it on the All-22 Two guys went out for passes on the offensive right side, one crossing in front of Edmunds and going over there. Edmunds follows him fairly far to the right. But he was the right guy to cover. If Edmunds hadn't covered him, nobody else did either and he'd have been wide open and the gain would have been longer. The Titans sneak an RB around the other side of the formation and into the middle as a safety valve, and he gets the ball two yards past the LOS. Edmunds has a ton of ground to cover, but cover it he does and he comes back and makes the tackle. It's a good play, helping force them to go to the safety valve and then covering a lot of ground to make the tackle.

 

Haters might indeed complain but they'd be missing the point. I didn't even look at any of the other haterz plays when this one turned out as I'd suspected. Some of those plays might well have been something he could have done better, but when the first one had him doing a fine job with his assignment, I didn't bother to look at the others.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Bob in STL]

On 10/20/2021 at 8:19 AM, First Round Bust said:

above is the best analysis on this portal and an example of how we got out-executed on the field, stings since we lost the game by inches, hindsight is 20-20...so on the key qb keeper by Josh the whole world knew what play was coming; we had timeouts, why not put a back in the formation, run an RPO, likely keeping it and running right for more options, including a shovel pass, tackle eligible, sweep run by Josh or pass...our red zone strategy needs some deep thinking for improvement.

Agree but you do know that if the RPO failed everyone would ask why not sneak it for 6 inches?   Allen converted every QB sneak up to that time (one exception was a fumbled snap).   
 

The Left side of the OL failed. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

Agree but you do know that if the RPO failed everyone would ask why not sneak it for 6 inches?   Allen converted every QB sneak up to that time (one exception was a fumbled snap).   
 

The Left side of the OL failed. 

 

 

Sure, if we'd RPO'd, there would have been eejits with a problem with that. Any failure would be questioned by some, whether it was a failure at a venture with a low chance of success or a high chance of success. Yeah, the difference isn't always easy to notice for everyone. Beside the point, though. Whether or not people squawk, it's still the smarter thing to take a smart risk than a dumb one, a high percentage chance over a low-percentage chance.

 

And yeah sure, you can say the left side of the OL failed if you want to. But they failed at a task you shouldn't reasonably ask them to try. You can say a guy failed because he couldn't bench press 2000 pounds. Yeah, he failed. Shouldn't have been asked to try, though. They were set a task with a very low possibility of success compared to other smarter options.

 

If on a 4th and one we took out Milano, replaced him with Harrison Phillips and then put Phillips between the LT and the LG, Lotulelei between the LG and the C and Zimmer in the gap between the RG and the C, leaving the outsidewe'd be thrilled to see them running a QB sneak instead of seeing them attacking the weaknesses we'd created outside the tackles and behind the lines.

 

And Philllips isn't a 345 pound run stopping NT like Naquan Jones is.

 

 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sure, if we'd RPO'd, there would have been eejits with a problem with that. Any failure would be questioned by some, whether it was a failure at a venture with a low chance of success or a high chance of success. Yeah, the difference isn't always easy to notice for everyone. Beside the point, though. Whether or not people squawk, it's still the smarter thing to take a smart risk than a dumb one, a high percentage chance over a low-percentage chance.

 

And yeah sure, you can say the left side of the OL failed if you want to. But they failed at a task you shouldn't reasonably ask them to try. You can say a guy failed because he couldn't bench press 2000 pounds. Yeah, he failed. Shouldn't have been asked to try, though. They were set a task with a very low possibility of success compared to other smarter options.

 

If on a 4th and one we took out Milano, replaced him with Harrison Phillips and then put Phillips between the LT and the LG, Lotulelei between the LG and the C and Zimmer in the gap between the RG and the C, leaving the outsidewe'd be thrilled to see them running a QB sneak instead of seeing them attacking the weaknesses we'd created outside the tackles and behind the lines.

 

And Philllips isn't a 345 pound run stopping NT like Naquan Jones is.

 

 

Are you saying that you think a QB sneak for than less than a yard is a low percentage play, offensively?

 

Re: Edmunds

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That.

 

For instance, on the first play he calls a haterz play, Edmunds is off-screen, then comes running in to make the play on the short pass through the middle for a 10 yard gain and a first down. 

 

He calls it a haterz play, but it's simply that Edmunds' job wasn't there. You can see it on the All-22 Two guys went out for passes on the offensive right side, one crossing in front of Edmunds and going over there. Edmunds follows him fairly far to the right. But he was the right guy to cover. If Edmunds hadn't covered him, nobody else did either and he'd have been wide open and the gain would have been longer. The Titans sneak an RB around the other side of the formation and into the middle as a safety valve, and he gets the ball two yards past the LOS. Edmunds has a ton of ground to cover, but cover it he does and he comes back and makes the tackle. It's a good play, helping force them to go to the safety valve and then covering a lot of ground to make the tackle.

 

Haters might indeed complain but they'd be missing the point. I didn't even look at any of the other haterz plays when this one turned out as I'd suspected. Some of those plays might well have been something he could have done better, but when the first one had him doing a fine job with his assignment, I didn't bother to look at the others.

 

It's a HATERZ PLAY because the haterz will say that 49 lacked the "instinct" to prevent the first down.  I typically ignore plays where 49 is off-screen and not involved.  It's impossible for me to ignore a play where he made a solo tackle.  Other HATERZ PLAYs highlight the other haterz gripes:

 

- can't shed blocks

- blocked downfield by OL

- overruns the hole

- never gets to the hole 

 

None of us know what 49's assignment is on any given play, so any grade is subjective.  I do the best I can with what I see.  You don't wanna read 'em?  Fine.