THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Humbled at the Goal Line

[muppy]

15 hours ago, Figster said:

One of my favorite things about reading Shaws reviews is the NFL history and insight he's able to apply to them. Shaw did a thread awhile back you guys probably remember.  Which was basically his view of a casual fan of the Buffalo Bills vs a true die hard fan. Under Shaws high standards I was astonished to find myself in the casual fan category. Shaws high standard is the key to my placement. Shaw himself is the reason I finally admitted to myself he was right. Compared to Shaw my casual position in the Bills fan base became obvious to me. 

 

So today I give thanks and high praise to one of the biggest die hard Bills fans on the planet.  While I have never met him personally. I know his love and dedication to the Buffalo Bills goes well beyond my casual embrace. 

 

Thanks  

 

Casual Bills fan 

p'shaw casual fan my arse sell that to someone else Figster Ive been reading you on bills chat walls for literally decades..casual fan lol 😜

 

Im teasing. GO BILLS!~!~!~!!

 

DiehardsRule

 

LOL see what I did there? *giggles** Im soo clevah  😉

 

*ok i'll shut it. Ha.

 

m

Edited October 21, 2021 by Muppy

[oldmanfan]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, yes and no.  Yes, to a man it looked like the Bills line got beat.

 

But no, your O line doesn't HAVE to be able to a gain of several inches against EVERY team in the league.   Being able to get one yard against every team in the league is not the stat that correlates best with winning.  The whole game, every game, doesn't turn on your ability to get one yard.   I agree, you'd like to be able to get that yard against anyone, but it just isn't the case every week.  

 

What is more important is being able to get the first down on fourth and one.   You don't necessarily have to get it with power up the middle, but you have to be able to get it.  Even so, you aren't going to get it every time.  

 

Allen was supposed to know how good their defensive front is, and he was supposed to recognize that the defensive formation made the defense difficult to attack.  Allen failed at that.  Maybe he changed out of a play that also wasn't going to work; I don't know.   That play was a failure, and yes, if you want to win a championship, you shouldn't be failing there. 

 

But I'm sure that the Bills coaches spent no more time this week teaching about that play than they did on several other plays, each of which was as easily responsible for the loss as the sneak.  

 

Failing on fourth and one there was disappointing, and the Bills need to be better, but it's far from the crisis you seem to suggest it is.  

While we agree on 99% of things, and I always look forward to your weekly posts, we must disagree here.  I will say again that football is about beating the guy in front of you.  Whether it's a WR lined up against a CB, or a DT against an OT, that is the fundamental aspect of football.  And our O line did not do so on that play. 

 

I think we all at times add too much complexity to things when the answer is pretty simple.  And that's what happened.  Our O line didn't get it done on the play that was called.  We can criticize the play call (and I would have liked to see them call something to get Josh outside with more options), we can try and make excuses, etc, etc, etc.  But the O line had to make enough room for Allen to make about 4 inches and it didn't get done.

 

And I do not, unlike some around here, see this as a crisis.  We took the shot we should have taken, we didn't get the first down, and we lost.  So we're 4-2, firmly in control of the division, with 3 eminently winnable games ahead of us.  We will win the division, and hopefully get the first seed.  There really aren't too many more games left where we won't be strong favorites, and McD is a master at using losses as a motivating factor.  We'll be fine, but I do also suspect they are looking very closely at the O line during the bye week to see if changes need to be made, since in the two games we lost the O line got outperformed by the opposing D line

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

While we agree on 99% of things, and I always look forward to your weekly posts, we must disagree here.  I will say again that football is about beating the guy in front of you.  Whether it's a WR lined up against a CB, or a DT against an OT, that is the fundamental aspect of football.  And our O line did not do so on that play. 

 

I think we all at times add too much complexity to things when the answer is pretty simple.  And that's what happened.  Our O line didn't get it done on the play that was called.  We can criticize the play call (and I would have liked to see them call something to get Josh outside with more options), we can try and make excuses, etc, etc, etc.  But the O line had to make enough room for Allen to make about 4 inches and it didn't get done.

 

And I do not, unlike some around here, see this as a crisis.  We took the shot we should have taken, we didn't get the first down, and we lost.  So we're 4-2, firmly in control of the division, with 3 eminently winnable games ahead of us.  We will win the division, and hopefully get the first seed.  There really aren't too many more games left where we won't be strong favorites, and McD is a master at using losses as a motivating factor.  We'll be fine, but I do also suspect they are looking very closely at the O line during the bye week to see if changes need to be made, since in the two games we lost the O line got outperformed by the opposing D line

Yes we agree on 99% of things, and I agree with 100% of this.   But you said in your original post the that the offensive line "has to" get the inches they needed, meaning they "must."   That's what I objected to.  

 

I agree that's the objective.   You need to win the one-on-one battles or you lose.   My point was that you could be the best team in the league and only be the 10th best at winning the offensive line's one on one battles.   You simply cannot win the one and one battles every play - the league is too good.   It's one thing to say we're going to build the team around the principle that we will win those battles, it's another thing to call a smart football game.  Sometimes, your intention notwithstanding, you can see that the matchups are unfavorable and you're not likely to win.   That was true the other night.   If McDermott really wanted to win that battle at the center of the line (and apparently the coaches actually wanted to go in a different direction), then he should have recognized that he needed an extra lineman and maybe Star at fullback to help push the pile.   

 

Being stubborn about winning one-on-one football isn't always smart football.  

 

And you seem to be saying that, too.

 

I've thought more about the other point I was making.   With all the analytics, I'm sure it would be possible to calculate what is the single down and distance that is the most important to win.   I'd guess that the down and distance that most affects your winning outcome is something like 3rd and 7.   That is, if the question is "What is the down the distance that I'd like to be the very best in the league at?," the answer is something like 3rd and 7.  If I can every 3rd and 7, I'm going to win more games than if I win every 4th and 1.   Why?   Well, I keep a lot more drives alive winning on 3rd and 7.  Plus, if I'm the best in the league at 3rd and 7, I'm probably also the best, or close to the best, at 3rd and 6 and 3rd and 8, which means I'm sustaining a lot of drives.   4th and 1 is a very particular play that only happens once or twice a game.   

 

What does that mean?   It means that pass protection and more sophisticated run blocking schemes are more important than the ability to blow your opponent off the line of scrimmage to get that one yard.   If I'm great at 3rd and 7, I'm getting the first down on the play where Josh came up inches short, and I never get to 4th and 1.  

Edited October 21, 2021 by Shaw66

[galept]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I can't argue with this.  It's a pretty good way took at it.   

 

Year after year, it becomes more obvious that McDermott's teams are not ready to be great in October.   They're still building.    Even some of the early wins by big scores didn't feel like blowout wins.    I don't remember drive by drive of the playoff game when the Bills beat the Raiders 51-3, or whatever.  That was a blowout.  Bills were in control every series on offense and on defense.   Except maybe for the Texans game, none of the Bills' games so far this year have felt like that kind of blowout.   The team has looked incomplete.

 

I don't say that at all as a criticism.   It's a statement about how McDermott builds his teams.   They're never as good in October as they are in December.   Every September and October, it's frustrating for the fans, but I try to remind myself that McDermott has a plan.  Losing isn't part of the plan, but he will not sacrifice his team's growth just to win a game.  

 

And, by the way, it was a GREAT football game to watch. 

Frankly, I guess I would have liked to see Josh in the shotgun with the line blocking straight ahead.   Josh takes a quick look to see if he has a gimme pass to one of his receivers.  If not, then from five yards back, pick a spot, run to it, and dive over the pile.   

 

I'm no offensive coordinator, but we all know the sneak was a bad decision.   Still, I'd rather Josh learn that lesson in week 6 than in the playoffs. 

 

Thank you for putting how I've felt, but been unable to explain, on paper. Our wins just haven't sat right with me and it's because the lopsided scores did not properly reflect the on-field performance. Perhaps I just need to get used to this and ride the ups with the downs until we see what kind of team we are heading into playoffs. If this is just how our team operates, I'll accept that.

 

The week 13 game against Bucs should be a fantastic test to see how things are shaping up.

[oldmanfan]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes we agree on 99% of things, and I agree with 100% of this.   But you said in your original post the that the offensive line "has to" get the inches they needed, meaning they "must."   That's what I objected to.  

 

I agree that's the objective.   You need to win the one-on-one battles or you lose.   My point was that you could be the best team in the league and only be the 10th best at winning the offensive line's one on one battles.   You simply cannot win the one and one battles every play - the league is too good.   It's one thing to say we're going to build the team around the principle that we will win those battles, it's another thing to call a smart football game.  Sometimes, your intention notwithstanding, you can see that the matchups are unfavorable and you're not likely to win.   That was true the other night.   If McDermott really wanted to win that battle at the center of the line (and apparently the coaches actually wanted to go in a different direction), then he should have recognized that he needed an extra lineman and maybe Star at fullback to help push the pile.   

 

Being stubborn about winning one-on-one football isn't always smart football.  

 

And you seem to be saying that, too.

 

I've thought more about the other point I was making.   With all the analytics, I'm sure it would be possible to calculate what is the single down and distance that is the most important to win.   I'd guess that the down and distance that most affects your winning outcome is something like 3rd and 7.   That is, if the question is "What is the down the distance that I'd like to be the very best in the league at?," the answer is something like 3rd and 7.  If I can every 3rd and 7, I'm going to win more games than if I win every 4th and 1.   Why?   Well, I keep a lot more drives alive winning on 3rd and 7.  Plus, if I'm the best in the league at 3rd and 7, I'm probably also the best, or close to the best, at 3rd and 6 and 3rd and 8, which means I'm sustaining a lot of drives.   4th and 1 is a very particular play that only happens once or twice a game.   

 

What does that mean?   It means that pass protection and more sophisticated run blocking schemes are more important than the ability to blow your opponent off the line of scrimmage to get that one yard.   If I'm great at 3rd and 7, I'm getting the first down on the play where Josh came up inches short, and I never get to 4th and 1.  

Good points here, as always from you.  I think one could make a case for our O line being the main determinant in the two losses.  They've addressed it once by putting Brown in the lineup and moving Williams inside (although Brown had a pretty bad outing Monday night).  I wonder if during this bye week they are not doing their grading and will consider putting Ike back in at LG or other permutations.

[Figster]

5 hours ago, Muppy said:

p'shaw casual fan my arse sell that to someone else Figster Ive been reading you on bills chat walls for literally decades..casual fan lol 😜

 

Im teasing. GO BILLS!~!~!~!!

 

DiehardsRule

 

LOL see what I did there? *giggles** Im soo clevah  😉

 

*ok i'll shut it. Ha.

 

m

Thanks for the vote of confidence my friend. While casual may not be the best description. In comparison to season tickets holders and some fans driving half way across the country to make live games. It puts them higher on the totem poll. Then you have fans like Shaw, season ticket holder for decades. Not only does he go to live games. He takes the time to share his experience in a unique way only Shaw can do IMO. Guys like Shaw and Virgil really do take being a Buffalo Bill fans to another level. I also think many of the mods and admin on the Bills football forums deserve special recognition. Caught between the team they love and every crazy poster who flies off the handle when things go wrong. Or how about the owners. SDS has built TBD from the ground up to become the biggest Bills sports forum in the country.  My good friend Foxx on our estranged uncle site. Giving me a small glimpse into the amount of hard work and effort it takes just to start a Bills forum. Its not easy. Most sites pale in comparison to what SDS has accomplished. Fans taking their Bills fandom to an even higher level. The DieHardRulers who rule us all.

 

Most patrons on TBD probably view me as a big Billls homer that normally looks at the bright side of everything. If theres a silver lining, I'll find it. The silver lining of myself is my love for the game of football. Buffalo Bills football in particular. Along with all the ups and downs and everything in the middle. My love for the team and its fan base is enough for me.

 

I'll let you guys do all the dirty work  ;  )

 

 

[colin]

we just don't match up well w the big tough well coached teams.  i think milano was terrible on monday, no way is he really back.  and a small quick LB like that is fodder for a team like Tenn.

 

on the other side of the ball, they just sold out to get physical with us, and while we put yards and points on them, we didn't get enough done in the red zone to walk away winners.

 

their o vs our d was the biggest chess match loss tho.  we bottled them up a couple times, and then they just kept the body blows coming.  7 scores in a row?

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Good points here, as always from you.  I think one could make a case for our O line being the main determinant in the two losses.  They've addressed it once by putting Brown in the lineup and moving Williams inside (although Brown had a pretty bad outing Monday night).  I wonder if during this bye week they are not doing their grading and will consider putting Ike back in at LG or other permutations.

I don't know what they will do, but there will be changes in scheme or personnel or both. 

[muppy]

2 hours ago, Figster said:

Thanks for the vote of confidence my friend. While casual may not be the best description. In comparison to season tickets holders and some fans driving half way across the country to make live games. It puts them higher on the totem poll. Then you have fans like Shaw, season ticket holder for decades. Not only does he go to live games. He takes the time to share his experience in a unique way only Shaw can do IMO. Guys like Shaw and Virgil really do take being a Buffalo Bill fans to another level. I also think many of the mods and admin on the Bills football forums deserve special recognition. Caught between the team they love and every crazy poster who flies off the handle when things go wrong. Or how about the owners. SDS has built TBD from the ground up to become the biggest Bills sports forum in the country.  My good friend Foxx on our estranged uncle site. Giving me a small glimpse into the amount of hard work and effort it takes just to start a Bills forum. Its not easy. Most sites pale in comparison to what SDS has accomplished. Fans taking their Bills fandom to an even higher level. The DieHardRulers who rule us all.

 

Most patrons on TBD probably view me as a big Billls homer that normally looks at the bright side of everything. If theres a silver lining, I'll find it. The silver lining of myself is my love for the game of football. Buffalo Bills football in particular. Along with all the ups and downs and everything in the middle. My love for the team and its fan base is enough for me.

 

I'll let you guys do all the dirty work  ;  )

 

 

somebody has to do it Figster. I laugh emojied your last post because of the last line. But the rest was heartfelt and sincere muchas gracias Homey.

 

GO BILLS

[Nextmanup]

I hate Vrabel!  He's a cheating scumbag.

 

If he had been a Bill, I probably would love him.

 

 

[UKBillFan]

Three days on and I’m still wobbling. I shouldn’t be - the rational part of me is telling me it happens. And yet the doubts and questions are still running round my head. The first issue is our defense was exposed too readily, and it’s not the first time it’s just collapsed in game. The second issue is we left too many points on the field and, despite his obvious strengths, is Josh learning when it comes to the red zone and some reads or, again, are we just seeing the same things being repeated when we’re put under pressure?

 

And then there’s the annoying part - beating the Titans would have left us in a superb position to get the first seed. Thanks to our schedule we’re hardly in a bad position now but we’re reliant on others rather than ourselves. I really wish we didn’t have a bye this week so we could try and make amends immediately.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 hours ago, colin said:

we just don't match up well w the big tough well coached teams.  i think milano was terrible on monday, no way is he really back.  and a small quick LB like that is fodder for a team like Tenn.

 

When we were letting them score on every drive, I was surprised we didn't platoon with Klein more.  He had played so well the week before.

 

On 10/19/2021 at 10:40 PM, LeGOATski said:

Good write-up!

 

I don't know where people are getting that Josh changed the play. I didn't hear anything of the sort in McDermott's presser. What McDermott clearly said, and the players (Beasley, Hyde, Poyer, Morse) echoed, was that they wanted to give it to Josh.

 

I definitely feel like he should've audibled out of a sneak with 3 Titans DLs staring him down.

 

I think Josh is accustomed to the sneak working when 3 DL stare at him. 

 

Bobby Johnson would say something like "there comes a time in the NFL when you're expected to block a good player 1 on 1.  When that time comes, you got to do it"

[Ned Flanders]

Excellent post and I agree with your assessment on all points.  One of the better posts on TSW this season.

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I think Josh is accustomed to the sneak working when 3 DL stare at him. 

 

Bobby Johnson would say something like "there comes a time in the NFL when you're expected to block a good player 1 on 1.  When that time comes, you got to do it"

There's truth to that. However, Dawkins and Feliciano were at a huge disadvantage from the snap. Their assignments already had a head start being lined up in their gaps. It's clear on the film that Josh should've followed the double team from Morse and Williams or ran outside towards Knox. It makes me wonder if he thought the double team was occurring on the left side with Morse and Feliciano.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

There's truth to that. However, Dawkins and Feliciano were at a huge disadvantage from the snap. Their assignments already had a head start being lined up in their gaps. It's clear on the film that Josh should've followed the double team from Morse and Williams or ran outside towards Knox. It makes me wonder if he thought the double team was occurring on the left side with Morse and Feliciano.

 

Knox wasn't on the field (that was Sweeney)

 

Agree they were at a disadvantage

 

I think there may be truth to the comments that Allen always sneaks to the L of center.  I think Barkley knows his tendencies so the Titans did too.  If true, this is a piece of self-scouting they need to revisit.  It may have to do with his surgically repaired R shoulder and protecting his throwing shoulder though.

 

It just seemed like a poorly designed play all around, in other plays someone is back there giving Allen a hard shove in the butt

[rockpile]

On 10/20/2021 at 2:58 PM, oldmanfan said:

Of course I can.  As I said football is about beating the guy in front of you.  None of our guys beat their guy on that last play.

 

With your logic Jerry Kramer isn’t in the Hall because it would have been unreasonable for him to block Jethro Pugh so Starr runs his successful sneak.

 

Your O line has to be able to get a gain of several inches.  They have to.  They didn’t.

 

Basically, Lombardi said to his team (paraphrased) if you can't get a yard you do not deserve to win. I agree with decision to go for the win.

[Figster]

20 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Three days on and I’m still wobbling. I shouldn’t be - the rational part of me is telling me it happens. And yet the doubts and questions are still running round my head. The first issue is our defense was exposed too readily, and it’s not the first time it’s just collapsed in game. The second issue is we left too many points on the field and, despite his obvious strengths, is Josh learning when it comes to the red zone and some reads or, again, are we just seeing the same things being repeated when we’re put under pressure?

 

And then there’s the annoying part - beating the Titans would have left us in a superb position to get the first seed. Thanks to our schedule we’re hardly in a bad position now but we’re reliant on others rather than ourselves. I really wish we didn’t have a bye this week so we could try and make amends immediately.

I was so depressed right after the game it had me close to tearing up. This loss hurt more then any regular season game that I could remember. I think what got to me the most was how close Buffalo was to defeating a team that had controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the game. It was a huge obstacle the Bills were about to overcome. Most games are won and lost in the trenches. The Tennesse Titans are built to do exactly what they did to win football games. The second Allen came up under center to do the sneak my heart began to sink. It was one of them oh no moments right before the hammer drops. 

 

My love and admiration for Josh Allen has exceeded every Bills player now and in the past. Judging by how many fans ( mods alike) going into defensive mode concerning his play when things go wrong I'm not alone. I understand how you feel. Nobody hurt worse after the loss then Allen. I'm confident the pain he felt had very little to do with his own personal feelings and everything to do with his teamates, coaches and for all the Bills fans that traveled long distances to stand behind him. The 12th man came in force. At the top of the list for Allen was Brian Daboll. 

 

In the aftermath a few days later I've accepted the loss and found the silver lining. This loss did not need to happen in the playoffs. While Buffalo's overall schedule is weak key teams like the Chiefs, Titans and Bucs will give the Buffalo Bills the experience they need to become Champions in my humble opinion.

 

I Billieve... 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Figster

[muppy]

1 hour ago, Ned Flanders said:

Excellent post and I agree with your assessment on all points.  One of the better posts on TSW this season.

whose mate?

[Figster]

7 minutes ago, Muppy said:

whose mate?

OP of course ;  )

 

Shaws good that way...

[muppy]

2 minutes ago, Figster said:

OP of course ;  )

 

Shaws good that way...

now I feel like an Idiote since It wasnt quoted I was like Hmmmm LOL

**Goes off to my corner to sulk** bad muppy OOPS

 

haha sorry bleeeeeep