THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Humbled at the Goal Line

[Shaw66]

You know that GEICO ad with the four young adults in the horror movie?

 

“Why don’t we jump in that running car?”

 

“Are you crazy?  Let’s hide behind the chain saws.”

 

My wife thinks Mike Vrabel looks like the guy in the barn, smirking and shaking his head as the rubes fall into his trap.

 

Vrabel starred in the Bills’ own horror show Monday night, as the Titans beat the Bills 34-31.

 

I like Vrabel.  He was the kind of player Sean McDermott loves: tough, versatile, team guy.  I like how none of the coaches in the Belichick tree have had success as a head coach, but a player in that tree – Vrabel – coaches the team no one wants to play.  At the heart of Belichick’s approach, and at the heart of Vrabel’s approach, is that football starts with, and is always about, one-on-one physical toughness.  Every day, every play.  Simple, straight-forward toughness.  If you don’t bring it, you don’t play.  

 

So, one thing is a certainty: when it’s fourth and one with the game on the line, what you’re going to get from Vrabel is incredible toughness.  Vrabel’s team is not, absolutely is not, going to get outmuscled on the line of scrimmage.   His teams do not get beat on the most basic play in all of football.   You might beat him some other way, but Vrabel will not let his team get beat straight up the middle. 

 

The Bills passed up a possible game-tying field goal to go for it on fourth and one, and they never had a chance.  The offensive line was overpowered, Josh Allen lost his footing, and the game was over. 

 

Did McDermott make the wrong decision in going for it?   No.  I’m sure the analytics say the Bills had a better chance of winning the game right there than winning if they went to overtime.  Did he and Brian Daboll call the wrong play?  No.  Wait, if Vrabel’s Titans are so absolutely tough up the middle, shouldn’t the Bills have attacked differently?   Well, yes, I suppose, but Sean McDermott lives in the Belichick-Vrabel school, and he wants HIS team to be one of those teams.   Fourth and one, game on the line, the Bills are going to be as tough as they come, right up the middle.  McDermott is not going to back down, he’s not going to run misdirection, he’s not going to throw.   On Monday night, McDermott challenged his team to be as tough as they come, and they just weren’t. 

 

Vrabel is in at least one way the luckiest coach in the NFL.  No, he hasn’t won a Super Bowl, and no, he doesn’t have the most gifted quarterback in the league.   What he has is a running back who thrives on toughness, a running back with straight-ahead strength and speed unparalleled in the NFL since Jim Brown.  For Vrabel, it’s heaven – build a powerful offensive line and give Derrick Henry the ball, play after play.  Pound the opponent with toughness, and pound them again.  The Bills weren’t tough enough to stand up to the pounding.  By the fourth quarter, it was clear – the Titans’ offense would not be stopped.  McDermott had no choice.  Overtime meant facing that offense again; he had to go for it.

 

The Bills are the better team.  Their mistakes lost the game.  They failed often in the red zone.  Critical penalties cost them at least two touchdowns.   Spencer Brown was atrocious in the first half. 

 

Worst of all, Josh Allen played like he has forgotten the lessons of the last three years.   The game wasn’t lost on the Bills’ last possession.  It was lost on the second-last possession, when the Bills had a chance to put the game out of reach.  Leading 31-27 with nine minutes left, the Bills got one first down, and then Allen went haywire.   On first down, he stood in the pocket way too long, looking deep, looking deep, ignoring his outlet receiver in the right flat with plenty of open field in front of him.  Sack.  On second and 17, he locked on Sanders going deep, waited and waited, and then threw into double coverage.  On third down, he led Kumerow out of bounds way up field.   Allen completely abandoned the smart passing game he displayed all last season and that had allowed the Bills to control this game.  Instead of taking the throws the defense was giving him, he went after low-probability explosive plays.  The Bills punted, the Titans drove for a touchdown, and the Bills died on fourth and one from two with time running out. 

 

The Bills weren’t going to overpower the Titans, but they could have outscored them.  They should have. 

 

McDermott’s teams often have struggled at this time of the season.  They team isn’t a finished product yet, and it will get better.  But it needs to continue to pile up wins.  They need to be 6-2 at the midway (sort of) point, and then they need to win consistently from there.  There’s plenty of work to do.  It’s an early bye, and the Bills probably would prefer to go back on the field next week to get back to winning.  Instead, they have to wait, digest the loss, and get better.

 

Go Bills!

[WhoTom]

Good post, Shaw. Clearly, the Bills beat themselves. They are the better team - just not last night.

 

One point about the 4th-and-1 play call: McD said Josh made the decision to change from whatever play Daboll called and sneak it instead. They gave him the authority to do so.

 

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

Good post, Shaw. Clearly, the Bills beat themselves. They are the better team - just not last night.

 

One point about the 4th-and-1 play call: McD said Josh made the decision to change from whatever play Daboll called and sneak it instead. They gave him the authority to do so.

 

That's interesting, and generally a good thing.   Josh has a big head and is going to be inclined to call his own number.  He needs to be humbled a few times for him to make better judgments.   I don't know what the play call was - I don't know what would have worked.   First and foremost, Josh has to stay on his feet.  He shouldn't have had his feet slip like that.  He didn't add his push to the pile (and Moss didn't, either).

[Robert Paulson]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

That's interesting, and generally a good thing.   Josh has a big head and is going to be inclined to call his own number.  He needs to be humbled a few times for him to make better judgments.   I don't know what the play call was - I don't know what would have worked.   First and foremost, Josh has to stay on his feet.  He shouldn't have had his feet slip like that.  He didn't add his push to the pile (and Moss didn't, either).

all 3 WR's did not look happy after the play: was it because they lost or was it Josh checked out of a pass that looked like it would work and we lost? not trying to stir the kettle but it caught my eye how they all had the same hands on hips look.

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

all 3 WR's did not look happy after the play: was it because they lost or was it Josh checked out of a pass that looked like it would work and we lost? not trying to stir the kettle but it caught my eye how they all had the same hands on hips look.

 

That's interesting too.  Obviously, the Bills already had struggled in the red zone, but they certainly should have plays that will work down there, especially with three good short route runners, plus Davis.   They were missing Knox.   

 

Also, as I said, and as someone has a thread about, the game was lost on the previous possession.   Josh, who generally had a great game, completely lost it.  

[Heathcliff]

Beasley standing all by himself on 3rd down right in front of Josh as Josh was determined to run and get that 1st down………

[Robert Paulson]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's interesting too.  Obviously, the Bills already had struggled in the red zone, but they certainly should have plays that will work down there, especially with three good short route runners, plus Davis.   They were missing Knox.   

 

Also, as I said, and as someone has a thread about, the game was lost on the previous possession.   Josh, who generally had a great game, completely lost it.  

I think that was the bigger picture. Josh carries the team but kerfuffled the last 2 drives: not taking what was given second to last drive and second to last play- Beasley was open second to last play but not sure if josh looked for him or was already past the l.o.s. he still turns into sugar high josh every once in a while.  you can tell when the camera shows his face sometimes. we need someone -diggs or Knox to pull him a side and deep breathe with him or something because it is definitely noticeable. 

[TNBills]

9 minutes ago, Heathcliff said:

Beasley standing all by himself on 3rd down right in front of Josh as Josh was determined to run and get that 1st down………

I've watched it over several times, and Beasley doesn't uncover until Josh had run past the LOS. Had to watch highlights when I got back to the room as I was at the game.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Calidiehard

[Richard Noggin]

The audible to the sneak was the wrong call. The Titans D-line had just reduced down to jam up the interior gaps, essentially daring the Bills to do anything BUT sneak it up the gut. 

 

You want Allen with the ball in his hand, moving, and scanning for a receiver to tattoo with a fastball. 

[oldmanfan]

Football always has been and always will be about physically beating the guy across from you.  We didn’t on that last play, and ballgame.

 

We have a very good team, but one of the weaker areas is the O line, literally and figuratively.  They don’t have road grader nasty types.  Brown should get there but he looked like the rookie he is last night.  
 

And as much as we all love Josh, and for good reason, that second last drive showed he still has a ways to go to match his mental game with the physical.  You don’t try to go deep three times when a drive like the one against the Chiefs is what was needed.  I was screaming for his to make the quick, shorter throws. 
 

As I understand it, the coaches grade each game up till now during bye week.  I expect another change or two up front.  Maybe Boettger and Bates need a shot at LG and C.  And I wonder if Brown goes to the left side for Dawkins; Dawkins seems to still be suffering from perhaps long Covid.  He is not the normal Dawkins.

 

One thing for sure, we will come out of the bye pisses and prepared.  We lost on a last play before byd week last year and went on the big run.  I expect something similar this year.  If I was on the Fish, I’d be preparing to get my ass whipped.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I will just say this about Vrabel— i think it be totally unfair to say he came from the Bellichick coaching tree. He didn’t. 

 

in fact, My theory is that his style of coaching is more of a product of playing for the Steelers than anything else. Play hard physical 3-4 defense; and run the ball. He even cycles through assistants and players in the same way as the Steelers do— just fit new guys into your general Framework and keep going. 

[Shaw66]

47 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

I think that was the bigger picture. Josh carries the team but kerfuffled the last 2 drives: not taking what was given second to last drive and second to last play- Beasley was open second to last play but not sure if josh looked for him or was already past the l.o.s. he still turns into sugar high josh every once in a while.  you can tell when the camera shows his face sometimes. we need someone -diggs or Knox to pull him a side and deep breathe with him or something because it is definitely noticeable. 

I agree you can see it in his face. It was definitely there last night. Gotta get that under control.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

39 minutes ago, Calidiehard said:

I've watched it over several times, and Beasley doesn't uncover until Josh had run past the LOS. Had to watch highlights when I got back to the room as I was at the game.

Thank you...I have seen so many people saying beasley was wide open to win the game...I blame the commentators they said that in situations where it was completely false numerous times throughout the night 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It’s an early bye, and the Bills probably would prefer to go back on the field next week to get back to winning.  Instead, they have to wait, digest the loss, and get better.

 

I'm actually happy we have the bye week after a last second loss like this. I worry that the players, Allen in particular, would be trying too hard to win the next game on every play instead of playing their normal style. Instead they have two weeks to let the loss fade away and get back to the dominance they are capable of.

 

Agreed that Allen's second to last drive should have won us the game if he had stayed patient. It's too bad because otherwise I thought Allen was spectacular and kept us in the game. But in a shootout every mistake on offense is amplified. McDermott preaches situational football. Going for the kill shot when you're already up 4 points is not situational football. Other than that series I thought he showed good patience throughout the game. It was a step up for him, until it wasn't.

 

Oh well. If you had told me before the season that we'd be 4-2 at the bye with a blowout win over the Chiefs I would have been more than satisfied. I still think we are in the drivers' seat for the #1 seed because Tennessee and Baltimore are not going undefeated the rest of the way. I genuinely believe we can after the bye. We did it last year.

Edited October 20, 2021 by HappyDays

[CincyBillsFan]

57 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

I think that was the bigger picture. Josh carries the team but kerfuffled the last 2 drives: not taking what was given second to last drive and second to last play- Beasley was open second to last play but not sure if josh looked for him or was already past the l.o.s. he still turns into sugar high josh every once in a while.  you can tell when the camera shows his face sometimes. we need someone -diggs or Knox to pull him a side and deep breathe with him or something because it is definitely noticeable. 

I don't get some of the takes here.  I agree about the 2nd to last drive but the last drive Allen was masterful getting the Bills down into the red zone.  He drove them from the 17 to the 14 (70 yards)  in about 90 seconds. 

 

And for the record Beasley was not open on that play until Allen crossed the LOS. 

 

IMO the bad play call was the run to Moss after the Bill's got close. It went for next to nothing and was a wasted play.

 

 

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree you can see it in his face. It was definitely there last night. Gotta get that under control.

Was it?  Maybe for that one drive.  But that last drive was masterful.  That was NOT sugar rush Allen or the "moment is to big for him" Allen on display. That was an offense moving with surgical precision down the field and into position to tie the game with a chip shot FG or win it outright with a TD.  IMO the play calling got a bit strange AFTER Allen had moved the Bills to the 13 yard line.

 

 

[Best Williams Available]

2 hours ago, WhoTom said:

Good post, Shaw. Clearly, the Bills beat themselves. They are the better team - just not last night.

 

One point about the 4th-and-1 play call: McD said Josh made the decision to change from whatever play Daboll called and sneak it instead. They gave him the authority to do so.

 

Do we know how much Josh changes plays in the red zone? I didn’t know the above but wonder about our ineptitude down there. Is Josh changing Daboll plays from time to time?

[Thurman#1]

Good post, Shaw. A lot of sense here.

 

Tough game to watch near the end.

[ILBillsfan]

1 hour ago, Heathcliff said:

Beasley standing all by himself on 3rd down right in front of Josh as Josh was determined to run and get that 1st down………

Josh was already over the LOS on that play watch the replay

[Success]

I feel like the Bills needed a game like yesterday.  You can't just coast to the playoffs.   They fought hard, & kept fighting back when they lost the lead each time.  It was great resiliency.  I feel like that kind of game will only build their confidence, despite the ending.  And I think the players loved McD for going for it.

 

The obvious parallel is the hail Murray, which felt similar at the time - heading into a bye, stewing for 2 weeks & then coming out on fire.  Can only hope for the same this time.

 

The only disagreement I have w/ the OP is that I do NOT like Vrabel. 

 

 

[Best Williams Available]

Shaw great post and I think it sums up why these Bills have trouble with the Titans, as you mention, they are trying to fight Fire with Fire. 
 

DL for instance bigger tougher than KC OL but not so against Titans OL. So strong but smaller and faster guys maybe make inroads against Titans? I don’t know.