A few thoughts about the Titans game, in no particular order

[marky]

Titans were dropping bodies. Do that in January. Don't do that in October. I bet Titans don't make the playoffs.

 

Quote

We just felt like we wanted to dress some other guys and look at some other guys with [DT Harrison Phillips] and [DE] Efe [Obada] and just trying to find matchups as well

 

Epnesa, Zimmer, and Klein really were no brainers here. Move Edmunds back 2 yards. Blitz from the edge.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I didn't come up with the numbers..that was how analytics had it in a tweet I saw

 

I'm not questioning what you saw, but I'd like to understand it.  Could you find the tweet again, or do you remember who tweeted it?

 

25 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

‘Micro-probability’ is fancy way to say that Head Coach can have the stat guy in his ear telling him the probability, but the Coach also has to use his eyes and realize those probabilities don’t compute with what’s happening in the game.  I’m guessing it was taking Bills forever to decline or accept a couple penalties last night because McDermott was waiting on the probabilities to come in from that stat guy.  

 

That''s not an unfair take, but of course "eyes on the game" or perception, can be biased by a number of things.  Ever have it happen that your friend bought a Blue Miata, and all of a sudden you're seeing Miatas everywhere you drive?  The number of Miatas on the road didn't change. 

 

So it's a way of saying "quantitate what you see happening in this instance, and recompute your probababilities based upon what you see"

[Virgil]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Our problem in the red zone is we have no real run game. People talk about our YPC but a lot those yards are gifted to us by defenses that are overplaying the pass. When the deep passing windows go away, we see what the run game is really made of. Every time we hand the ball off in the red zone it is a complete waste of a down. But I can't blame Daboll too much, if we just pass it every time defenses can tee off. I don't have statistics on this but it feels like a lot of our TDs this year have been from 20+ yards out. Once we get inside the 10 yard line our offensive identity doesn't work.

We didn’t have a run game last year, but still got the job done. So who knows 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not questioning what you saw, but I'd like to understand it.  Could you find the tweet again, or do you remember who tweeted it?

 

 

NextGen Stats 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1450303039194087424

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Big Turk

[Chuck Wagon]

It's hindsight so it's not fair to say "I would have done the other thing".

 

But I would have leaned towards kicking because a 1st down didn't end the game.  They still would have had to score a TD subsequently and many things could have gone wrong.  Succeeding in the 1st didn't end the game, but failing certainly did, which is why you kick in that situation.

 

I understand our D was gassed.  And again, hindsight isn't fair.

[Success]

On #10, I'm in the "go for it every time" crowd, but agree w/ your analysis.  First, it's not really a "debate" - both points of view on the core decision are valid, imo.  I don't see how anyone can really fault the aggressiveness, and I certainly wouldn't have complained had they kicked the FG there. But I liked the mentality.

 

But the bigger issue is the play call itself.  In general, we see that too much.  Dallas did it Sunday and almost lost the game as a result (and BB always stacks against the run on those plays - more than other coaches).  They were aggressive on the decision, but ultra-conservative on the play call.  Let Josh play fake & see what's available.  If he chooses to run, he's better in space regardless.

 

Great write-up, and a great game.  Rare is the loss where I don't feel discouraged.  I'm still just as optimistic as I was when we beat KC.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Our problem in the red zone is we have no real run game. People talk about our YPC but a lot those yards are gifted to us by defenses that are overplaying the pass. When the deep passing windows go away, we see what the run game is really made of. Every time we hand the ball off in the red zone it is a complete waste of a down. But I can't blame Daboll too much, if we just pass it every time defenses can tee off. I don't have statistics on this but it feels like a lot of our TDs this year have been from 20+ yards out. Once we get inside the 10 yard line our offensive identity doesn't work.

 

I understand what you're saying, I think, but it seems to me as though to make that argument, you're essentially re-defining "run game" to limit the definition to what you see as "real run game" and define plays that don't meet it out of existence.   One could make the same argument that a "run first team" has "a lot of pass yards gifted to us by defenses overplaying the run" and "has no real pass game".  🤔

 

As far as "it feels like a lot of our TDs this year have been from 20+ yards out. Once we get inside the 10 yard line our offensive identity doesn't work" you can find statistics and splits here.

 

Factually we have 22 TD overall at this point, 7 rush 15 pass.  6 rush TDs were inside the red zone.  10 pass TDs were inside the red zone.  Overall, we gained 3.0 yds per run play inside the redzone and 2.7 yds per pass play inside the red zone.  We have 14 rush 1st downs and 13 pass 1st downs inside the red zone.

 

So statistics do not appear to support your feels that a lot of our TDs have been from 20+ yds out (73% overall and 85% of rush TDs were from the red zone) OR that a rush play in the red zone is a waste of a down.

 

I think the fundamental problem is that our OL can't block well enough against good fronts.  We actually blocked better and ran better in this game than the Titans game last season but it's still not good enough.  It affects both run and pass plays.

 

 

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

McD said Boogie and AJ were inactive because they wanted to go with bigger bodies to try and matchup better to stop Henry. Outside of 2 runs, the 76 yarder and the 20 yarder they did a decent job, Tennessee was in 3re and long a lot.

 

Also statistically the Bills had a 75% chance of converting and a 63% chance of winning by going for it on that play versus a 42% chance of winning if they kicked the FG. Easy to say it's the wrong call because it didn't work but statistically they would make it much more often than not.

 

our D was abysmal on 3rd and long.  I think McD picked the wrong DE's to keep as Hughes  looked gassed at the end.  Also, isn't AJ huge, like he could stop Henry?  

[Pirate Angel]

RB and Offensive line are our weakest areas by far. Its shown in both the steelers and the titans games this year. I think we are better with William's at RT and Boettenger at  left guard and Mongo at Right Guard. Either way our interior OL will be the main focus in the offseason

[billybrew1]

The object of the game is to enter January red-hot with everything ironed-out. Our offense and offensive line have a long way to go. Our DL needs to better at getting pressure with four faster. We need to be able to raise our desire and want -to to extremely high levels at kick-off without losing our minds. Last night showed we still have a long way to go. So much for worrying we would peak too early. It's going to be hard trying to get better with our schedule. Hopefully, weak teams still get us up to high compete levels and mediocre teams like Carolina and New England bring out the best in us.

We no longer are in control of our own destiny but luckily it is still very early.

It looks like my early season prediction of 14-3 is going to be about right...

How much better can our OL get this year?

I say a lot better.... Mongo does have an excuse. It is very difficult switching positions; Especially sides. Now at LG he might be way better at it come December. He might be way better communicating with Dawkins and Morse besides.

Daryl Williams is a OT. At least he is on his much preferred side, the right, but he could really, really, improve at guard as the season goes. Dawkins might really improve with the bye. He can get his body tight and his mind and playing next to mongo all straightened out over the bye.

Morse can have long talks with his OL now that the bye is here; getting used to Morse on his left and Daryl on his right.

If I'm McD, I make absolutely certain Spencer Brown gets a lot of rest over the next few days. We have got to protect vs. the big rookie hitting the wall.... Rested-up, It's weights, weights, weights, film, film film and you watch that he doesn't overload.

OL is a spot where the Bills are kind of normal now. Expect a second rounder being spent here next year....or two lower picks? Like a third and a fifth like last year. Maybe we do need to hit on a second rounder if he is there. The other position I am now thinking about is RB though I wonder how we would do with just a better line? It's really screwed up at least it was last night. I imagine most Bills fans would point to the OL as to why we lost last night.....

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

2 - Allen - Allen had an overall great game, barring the second to last series were he took an unnecessary shot deep against double coverage, setting us up for a long 3rd down.  I have no issue with him wanting to take shots downfield, but that wasn't the coverage or time to do it.  Had he taken the open underneath passes, we would have had a much more manageable third down and possibly a sustained drive.  The slip on the 4th down sneak to end the game was unfortunate, but it's hard to blame Allen for that one.  Considering the lack of run support, pass rush, and two deep safeties, Allen did more than enough to win the game.

 

 

 

I had to stop right here.

 

Disagree that he had a "great" game. He was very indecisive and cost us at least a couple drives. He was indecisive on pulling it down to run, when he absolutely should have. And he was indecisive on making even the most basic throws, rather pump faking and double-clutching the ball all night. This holding onto the ball too long put way more strain on the OL than they should have. They regularly gave him 4-6 seconds, and he just held the ball. Until often trying to bail too late and run right into a defender for a bad sack. I mean, just throw it away into the dirt.

 

Where as Tannehill consistently got the ball out quick all night. Even on incompletions, at least they werent sacks. As a matter of fact, the goose-egg, big fat ZERO in our sack column is mainly due to how quick and decisive he was in getting the ball out.

 

Josh was slow making decisions, missed open guys, was too slow to tuck it and run when the field was wide open, and took bad lanes when he did try to run.

 

He's still my dude, but it wasn't a great night.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Statistics, trends, analytics, whatever you want to call them; they are great for planning and creating your overall strategy.  However, once the game begins and new information arrives, you have to make adjustments based upon what you are seeing in the moment.  If there's one things I don't believe we did in this loss, it's adjust to what was happening in the moment.  There's going to be a lot of frustration and arguments as the Bills lose again going into a bye week for the third straight year; as well as conversations about how we are 1 and 2 against teams with a record of .500 or better.  With a soft schedule ahead, I expect a lot of dismissal about who we beat and more focus on who we lost to. 

 

1 - Trenches - This game was lost in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  The Titans had three guys with their hands planted and one roaming fourth defender come at Josh for most of the game.  In some cases, that was enough as the Bills offensive line struggled to pick up the stunt.  There were a few plays that Allen looked deep, but had to get rid of the ball or got hit as he threw.  The line didn't get much push as Motor and Moss were relatively ineffective all game, even though Daboll kept pushing it up until the last drive.  Similar to the Steelers game, and what we will probably see against the Bucs, our offensive line is still not able to win the 5 on 4 match-ups, allowing the opposing defenses to drop 7 into coverage, with two safeties deep.

 

2 - Allen - Allen had an overall great game, barring the second to last series were he took an unnecessary shot deep against double coverage, setting us up for a long 3rd down.  I have no issue with him wanting to take shots downfield, but that wasn't the coverage or time to do it.  Had he taken the open underneath passes, we would have had a much more manageable third down and possibly a sustained drive.  The slip on the 4th down sneak to end the game was unfortunate, but it's hard to blame Allen for that one.  Considering the lack of run support, pass rush, and two deep safeties, Allen did more than enough to win the game.

 

3 - Pass Rush - For a Titans team that gave up seven sacks to the NJ Jets, it's infuriating that we weren't able to generate any pressure in the second half.  I understand that we were trying, and failing, to stop Henry, but there were multiple 3rd and long plays in the second half where the Titans were obviously passing.  Yes, Henry was in the backfield for a few of those 3rd down plays, but the Titans didn't attempt to run the ball on a single 3rd and long play.  So fine, watch out for the draw on the first few occasions, but eventually take a shot and blitz on these 3rd and longs versus giving Tannehill all day to find AJ Brown.  Additionally, I don't understand Boogie and AJ being inactive for this game. 

 

4 - Small my table, sits just two
Got so crowded, I can't make room
Oh, where did they come from?... Stormed my room!
And you dare say it belongs to you... to you
 

5 - Henry - Occasionally, I will focus on the strong play of the opposing teams and Henry deserves that time here.  Similar to Aaron Judge and Lebron James. Derrick Henry is a physical specimen that you rarely see at his position.  When his career is over and done, he could easily be in consideration as one of the best all time halfbacks.  I remember when he came into the league and was splitting time, with many in media saying he would never be an every down back.  He shouldn't be allowed to be as fast as he is for his size, but he showed it on his break away touchdown in the first half.  He's Tannehill's best friend and caused us to structure our entire offensive game plan around stopping him.  Three touchdowns later, Henry showed why he is king and I tip my hat to him.

 

6 - Defensive Formation - The Bills ran a lot of a formation that looked similar to a 4-4.  We had 4 guys on the line and 4 guys (mixture of safety/linebacker/DB) about 5 yards back parallel to the line of scrimmage.  It was an interesting stacked box that could commit to stopping Henry or drop back into coverage.  On some plays, in fact for most of the first half, it did a good job of slowing the Titans offense down.  Honestly, if you take the Allen interception and Henry big run out of the first half, the Bills defense did a great job to start the game.  In the second half, the Titans made adjustments, our guys got slower as the rushing attack beat on them, and the pass rush was non-existent.  The strategy was there, but the execution by the front four wasn't.

 

7 - Best Shot - I don't watch the Titans and generally don't like them as a team, so this is completely based off of body language and what I saw on the field.  There's no question in my mind that we got the Titan's absolute best game.  Vrabel's face on the sidelines showed as much as he seemed to live and die with every play.  The Titans played out of their minds and we still had multiple chances to put this game away.  Unlike when we lost to the Chiefs twice last year and it looked like they had our number, the recent 0-2 against the Titans doesn't feel the same way to me.  We controlled the outcome of this game and many aspects of our team didn't perform well.  It's tough to lose to a likely division winner when we are in an ongoing battle for the one seed, but I do not believe for a second that we lost to a better team.

 

8 - Red Zone - Houston (see what I did there), we have a problem.  Controlling the first few series of the game doesn't mean much when you can only put up 6 points.  As we saw with the Henry run, all good efforts were wasted on one play, and we were then down by one.  The Bills continue to struggle getting touchdowns and it's cost us twice this season.  I don't know what's changed since last season, where we were largely dominant, but it's something we need to use the bye week to address.  We have the size in Gabe, Jake, and Knox to win the height battles, but don't take those shots.  Above all else, Daboll really needs to get to work here.

 

9 - Offensive Line - Spencer Brown, the golden child by many, had a rough game out there.  He allowed a pressure which led to an interception.  Morse and Mongo couldn't communicate on stunt plays, letting guys run free to Josh.  Dawkins got destroyed on the final play.  Overall, in the second week of their new look starting lineup, the Bills front 5 were didn't show up when it mattered most and it showed on the final scoreboard.  With no rushing attack, Allen was his normal pass happy self and made some throws to counter the pass rush.  However, with a better effort up front, we could have easily seen a better outcome.

 

10 - The play - Would I have gone for in 4th down at the end of the game?  No.  I'm conservative like that and I chose to trust my entire team and let them play it out, versus putting all their efforts into one play.  I don't blame McD for going for it and understand why.  We are allowed to agree to disagree on this one.  However, I have an issue with the play call.  Like I said in the intro, past game stats are great indicators for future strategy, but this game showed something different.  After watching this entire game, it was hard to bet money on the Bills offensive line winning a battle for the game.  There's a lot of questions around why the play failed.  Was it Allen slipping or Dawkins getting blown off the ball from the snap.  What I know is this. The Titans only had 4 players on the line versus our 5 and we still couldn't get a push.  Even if Allen didn't slip, you can't say he would have gotten it.  Regardless of the outcome, McD shouldn't have gambled the game on us winning in the trenches because the entire game showed you we'd lose.  Let Allen play fake and then make the choice.  The minute they went to the line, everyone in the stadium knew Allen was going to sneak it over Mongo, including the Titans.

 

 

In full transparency, this game absolutely pissed me off.  I could feel it coming all day and the deja vu heading into a bye week is not a great feeling.  I felt like we were the better team but couldn't execute or adjust to the Titans play calling.  How we couldn't cover AJ on 3rd down in the 2nd half, time after time after time again was infuriating.  Henry getting his yards was to be expected.  And the last call will stick with me for a while.  Seeing Tannehill smile on the sidelines after a pedestrian day made me want to break my TV and I had to just put myself to bed.  I shouldn't care about the narrative and didn't expect to go 16-1, but I wanted this game.  Hopefully it will keep the Bills honest and lead to necessary changes in game plan. 

 

Go Bills!!!!

Well said as always...I will quasi defend that throw into 'double coverage' though as sanders had one or two steps on both defenders it was just a badly thrown ball.  Maybe not the moment for a shot like that though.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I had to stop right here.

 

Disagree that he had a "great" game. He was very indecisive and cost us at least a couple drives. He was indecisive on pulling it down to run, when he absolutely should have. And he was indecisive on making even the most basic throws, rather pump faking and double-clutching the ball all night. This holding onto the ball too long put way more strain on the OL than they should have. They regularly gave him 4-6 seconds, and he just held the ball. Until often trying to bail too late and run right into a defender for a bad sack. I mean, just throw it away into the dirt.

 

Where as Tannehill consistently got the ball out quick all night. Even on incompletions, at least they werent sacks. As a matter of fact, the goose-egg, big fat ZERO in our sack column is mainly due to how quick and decisive he was in getting the ball out.

 

Josh was slow making decisions, missed open guys, was too slow to tuck it and run when the field was wide open, and took bad lanes when he did try to run.

 

He's still my dude, but it wasn't a great night.

I don't really understand 'indecisive' criticisms...there were some plays where a receiver was going to be open deep and he just ran out of time but I wouldn't say that's indecisive.  Also 'pump fakes' often happen because defenders hands are in the passing lanes and you just don't see that from a broadcast angle.  Josh was fantastic in this game I think people are just becoming desensitized to these ridiculous throws hes making on the run and under duress just because receivers look 'open' yea of course tanehill got the ball out quick haha our linebackers were completely out of position on every play action fake and pretty much every receiver on the field was wide open.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don't really understand 'indecisive' criticisms...there were some plays where a receiver was going to be open deep and he just ran out of time but I wouldn't say that's indecisive.  Also 'pump fakes' often happen because defenders hands are in the passing lanes and you just don't see that from a broadcast angle.  Josh was fantastic in this game I think people are just becoming desensitized to these ridiculous throws hes making on the run and under duress just because receivers look 'open' yea of course tanehill got the ball out quick haha our linebackers were completely out of position on every play action fake and pretty much every receiver on the field was wide open.

 

I blame the coaches just as much. Daboll for not calling plays that would actually get guys open, and Frazier for not adjusting to what the Titans were doing. But Josh's indecisiveness was pretty obvious to me. He never looked comfortable. He'd pump fake, then move to tuck it, then change his mind, then change it back... It was very reminscent of the Tyrod days where he'd drop back and we'd count "one thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand THROW THE BALL" where he was supposed to deliver it on rhythm, but would instead hold it, and hold it, and hold it, and then... sack.

 

And after taking a bad sack to make it 2nd and 17, we should be able to easily manage that with an underneath play to get to 3rd and 9ish, and then manage that with another mid-range play. Instead, for some reason, we take a 40 yard deep shot that was DOUBLE covered on 2nd and 17, which then makes it 3rd and 17 with no chance of converting.

 

Neither Daboll nor Josh were happy simply moving the ball down the field. Where as Tanny was fine taking the quick slants that got the ball out fast, prevented sacks, and kept the drives alive.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I blame the coaches just as much. Daboll for not calling plays that would actually get guys open, and Frazier for not adjusting to what the Titans were doing. But Josh's indecisiveness was pretty obvious to me. He never looked comfortable. He'd pump fake, then move to tuck it, then change his mind, then change it back... It was very reminscent of the Tyrod days where he'd drop back and we'd count "one thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand THROW THE BALL" where he was supposed to deliver it on rhythm, but would instead hold it, and hold it, and hold it, and then... sack.

 

And after taking a bad sack to make it 2nd and 17, we should be able to easily manage that with an underneath play to get to 3rd and 9ish, and then manage that with another mid-range play. Instead, for some reason, we take a 40 yard deep shot that was DOUBLE covered on 2nd and 17, which then makes it 3rd and 17 with no chance of converting.

 

Neither Daboll nor Josh were happy simply moving the ball down the field. Where as Tanny was fine taking the quick slants that got the ball out fast, prevented sacks, and kept the drives alive.

Just cuz there were two guys in coverage doesn't mean he was double covered lol sanders burned both those guys it was just an underthrown ball...more up the field and its an easy td.  We actually even completed the pass to pick up the 3rd and 17 but the defender made a nice heads up play and forced him out of bounds so im not sure 3rd and 17 is impossible.  I just dont get how you can compare a guy who's seeing a 4 man rush with 7 dbs in coverage to a guy where everyone and their mother is biting on the play action and every receiver on the field is comically wide open.  Josh was not perfect but he was great...we were literally inches away from talking about how he carried the whole team to victory.  The sack was a bad play though you are not wrong about that...it had absolutely nothing to do with indecisiveness though.  He was going to have Davis open deep on a double move but the weak side safety who had crept up a little too far was like oh cr*p and he raced back and got over to help just in time 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Just cuz there were two guys in coverage doesn't mean he was double covered lol sanders burned both those guys it was just an underthrown ball...more up the field and its an easy td. 

 

You dare criticize Josh?!? You must be spoiled.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You dare criticize Josh?!? You must be spoiled.

Haha yea he missed that one...the decision was fine both those defenders were beat and he just has to get it almost anywhere out in front of sanders but he underthrew it 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Haha yea he missed that one...the decision was fine both those defenders were beat and he just has to get it almost anywhere out in front of sanders but he underthrew it 

 

Noticed most of his deep balls were under thrown last night. Which is weird for a dude with his arm. Again, another reason I disagree with saying he was "great". Still love him, but an off night.

[MILFHUNTER#518]

I have a feeling this will not be the last time we see these guys this season.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Noticed most of his deep balls were under thrown last night. Which is weird for a dude with his arm. Again, another reason I disagree with saying he was "great". Still love him, but an off night.

There was def one other that I remember although it led to a PI and he missed beasley once but it looked like he expected beasley to run a different option route to me.  Other than that he was on fire in my opinion...its funny people see different things in the same game haha football is such a team sport that the act of assigning blame is pretty difficult