Questions to ponder during the bye week

[LeGOATski]

6 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

Yes, the AFCCG. Not the Super Bowl. Not World Champions. Have we improved this year? I can understand why some are saying no.

Yes they have.

 

They don't "fall on the wrong side of it far too often" as you said. That's what losing teams do. The Bills literally were in the AFCCG last year.

[Casey D]

It is also a lot to ask any team to play back to back primetime games on the road against very good teams and win them both.  Yet the Bills came within an eyelash of doing just that.  Clearly they had a letdown after the KC game, and the Titans brought their A game.  A narrow loss is hardly surprising, and certainly not the end of the world as we know it.  This team will be playing late into the playoffs.

[FilthyBeast]

19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yeah, I don't see them as a SB winner this season. I think the only chance they have of getting there is getting home field advantage throughout, which is possible but I don't think probable. Presently, I have them going 13-4, which is good but I don't think good enough. I think they lose to TB and lose either to NO or the Pats once. Too many of the Pats games are 50/50 propositions, and their luck is bound to turn at some point in those games. They're 1-3 in such games now. For the Bills sake, you want those two losses to be to TB and NO (despite it ruining Thanksgiving). The problem is that the Ravens schedule isn't that hard. They're clearly the best team in a weaker-than-expected AFC North (I'm not a believer in the Bengals vs. good teams), and they get GB and the Rams at home. 14-3 is a very legit possibility for them: https://www.baltimoreravens.com/schedule/.

Tennessee is a problem, but they have the Pats and the Rams on the road and the Chiefs at home: https://www.tennesseetitans.com/schedule/.  The rest of their schedule is pretty easy, although the Colts always play them tough. Jax, Miami, Houston twice, and SF at home are basically five guaranteed wins. I know it's problematic to pull for the Chiefs, but given the tiebreaker situation, we definitely want them to beat TN this week. That's a big game for the Bills. I'm guessing 12-5/11-6 at the end of the day for TN.

 

The Chiefs have a tough schedule, but the toughest opponents outside of LAC are at home. I think the Chiefs win that division at the end of the day. Chargers gonna Charger. And the Raiders will implode at some point.

 

Anything can happen and it's still early, but I've felt all along the Bills are a good team with flaws and said flaws will kill a good team when it matters in the playoffs. And these flaws in question are visible to everyone and why we lost to the Steelers and Titans. I also don't believe Beane will do anything to address them if anything because he won't want to mortgage the future and we really don't have cap space.

 

My gut feeling tells me that if the SB winner comes from the AFC this year it's going to be the Ravens. They simply look like a special team right now and Harbaugh is a proven SB winning HC that has continues to get it done year in and year out there.

 

In the NFC it could easily be anyone from the field of GB/AZ/TB/LA/DAL, just a loaded conference top to bottom and I would not feel good about the Bills chances against most those teams in the big game.

 

Next season will likely be the year the Bills win it all in their current window assuming we make the necessary tweaks with what cap room will be available to address current needs.

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

Yes, the AFCCG. Not the Super Bowl. Not World Champions. Have we improved this year? I can understand why some are saying no.

 

Last night was a bad game for them but overall the D is much better than last season. Allen has more weapons on offense especially with Knox emerging as real threat. It sucked to lose and it was a tough loss because they were so close to winning. Reality is they weren't going 16-1 and they will probably lose  1 or 2 more. This team will win the division and play a home playoff game. Like others have mentioned its to early to worry about the #1 as their are 11 games left to play.

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I think they're a contender, but I also think they're too flawed to get the SB without home field advantage throughout. I don't think that'll happen this year unless the Ravens lose in the first round (which is possible but not probable). Of course, I could be wrong about the Ravens, but I expect them to get to 14 wins.

The Bills are better prepared than the Ravens. When ***** goes down in January the Ravens are more one-dimensional than any other contender. If the Bills had to travel to Baltimore for a playoff game, I still like the Bills' odds.

[Casey D]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Anything can happen and it's still early, but I've felt all along the Bills are a good team with flaws and said flaws will kill a good team when it matters in the playoffs. And these flaws in question are visible to everyone and why we lost to the Steelers and Titans. I also don't believe Beane will do anything to address them if anything because he won't want to mortgage the future and we really don't have cap space.

 

My gut feeling tells me that if the SB winner comes from the AFC this year it's going to be the Ravens. They simply look like a special team right now and Harbaugh is a proven SB winning HC that has continues to get it done year in and year out there.

 

In the NFC it could easily be anyone from the field of GB/AZ/TB/LA/DAL, just a loaded conference top to bottom and I would not feel good about the Bills chances against most those teams in the big game.

 

Next season will likely be the year the Bills win it all in their current window assuming we make the necessary tweaks with what cap room will be available to address current needs.

For God's sake, the Ravens are a 67 yard FG away from losing to the Lions.  You are exposing your recency bias.

[SCBills]

42 minutes ago, Gen2 said:

I think all of your questions can be answered at the same time.

 

The Bills have built their team over the last few years to be able to consistently beat the Patriots who were a passing offense and run the ball almost as an afterthought kind of team, last year the team realized that they had attained that goal (attributed as much to the Pats decline as our buildup). The team then started to build to be able to consistently beat the Chiefs who are also a pass first team, and IMHO have attained that goal. The problem is that when your team is centered on being a fast strike score a billion points on offense, and a flood the passing lanes to harass the the passing game type of defense, you run into problems with smash mouth run it up the gut bully the opponent kind of teams. I think we will always have problems with the Titians and Ravens of the world, but the majority of teams in todays NFL are the air it out to score on any given play rather than the "I'm going to run it a dozen times a series to march down the field", so I think we'll be just fine.

 

Our Defense actually does well against Lamar/BAL.  They are a completely different type of power run team than TEN/CLE.  

 

It took a great game by Tennessee to beat a poor game by Buffalo, in which we decided against OT to go for the win and simply didn't execute a play that we likely convert 9/10.

 

Two holding penalties by us, that had nothing to do with the play, took two TD's off the board.  Meanwhile, the hold that helped spring Henry for a TD wasn't called.  It is what it is.  50/50 game, that was probably incredibly exciting to watch if you weren't a Bills fan, and in the end mistakes and one major fail in execution lost us the game.  

 

Biggest issue for me, and one we have to somehow rectify in-season, is that yes... only a few teams are ground/pound/stout DL.... they are in the AFC:  TEN, BAL, CLE and PIT.   Tennessee and Baltimore are locks for the Playoffs.  Cleveland is probable.  Pittsburgh with an outside shot.   Chances are we will have to play at least one of these teams in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl.   

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Anything can happen and it's still early, but I've felt all along the Bills are a good team with flaws and said flaws will kill a good team when it matters in the playoffs. And these flaws in question are visible to everyone and why we lost to the Steelers and Titans. I also don't believe Beane will do anything to address them if anything because he won't want to mortgage the future and we really don't have cap space.

 

My gut feeling tells me that if the SB winner comes from the AFC this year it's going to be the Ravens. They simply look like a special team right now and Harbaugh is a proven SB winning HC that has continues to get it done year in and year out there.

 

In the NFC it could easily be anyone from the field of GB/AZ/TB/LA/DAL, just a loaded conference top to bottom and I would not feel good about the Bills chances against most those teams in the big game.

 

Next season will likely be the year the Bills win it all in their current window assuming we make the necessary tweaks with what cap room will be available to address current needs.

 

I am curious to see if the Bengals can give the Ravens a run for the division. Everyone assumes its between the Ravens and Browns. I wouldn't take the Bengals lightly if I were Baltimore.

[LeGOATski]

Just now, Greg S said:

 

I am curious to see if the Bengals can give the Ravens a run for the division. Everyone assumes its between the Ravens and Browns. I wouldn't take the Bengals lightly if I were Baltimore.

I don't think they have the defense.

 

I'm rooting for the Bengals in that division, though. 

[SCBills]

Honestly getting sick of the Ravens love.  

 

1)  Until Lamar can get past the Divisional Round, I don't want to hear it. 

 

2) Destroying LAC doesn't erase the struggle bus games they've had against bad teams that they barely beat. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

This was a crappy loss but not necessarily unexpected given the nature of this league and this team likely wasn't going 16-1 anyway. With that said there are a lot of questions to ponder in the next few weeks:

 

1) How good is this team? Are they really a SB contender?

My biggest concern with losing against the Titans is the totality of the season as a whole thus far. Yes we dominated 3 lessor teams and beat what we assume is also a playoff team in KC, but there will be critics that now look at the Bills as paper tigers especially if the Chiefs continue to play inconsistent football. By default the Bills are certainly going to be an AFC contender given the weak remaining schedule and clear path to division titale, but after last night I'm really not sure if they are in the same class as a team like the Cardinals who dominated this same Titans team on the road, and several other contenders in similar fashion. Still plenty of time to go but right now I think the Bills are just another good team that's probably in the secondary tier until proven otherwise.

 

2) Speaking of the Chiefs, was this the Bills 'Super Bowl'?

As of right now I would say check back with me in a few months. But no matter what the players say, there's no question there was an extra motivation last week to have a good showing and get a win if anything to exorcise a necessary demon. I keep thinking back to the 2018 Jaguars who ironically started the season 4-1 that year and destroyed the Patriots (who they lost to in the AFCCG) and them completely falling apart the rest of the way after putting all their eggs in the proverbial basket for that specific game. Obviously this bills team is not a one  hit wonder like the 2017 Jags, and they also have a favorable schedule on deck but you can't argue how emotionally drained they were last night against the Titans particularly on defense. And to essentially lose the game on the last play of the game coming up short on 4th down play could foreshadow a similar end to the season come playoff time.

 

3) Can the Bills overcome the glaring flaws that were on full display again last night?

No team is perfect, but the same specific issues that cost this team against the Steelers (and have still lingered to a certain degree during the Bills 4 game win streak) are why this team lost again. Starting with the oline, they are way to inconsistent and simply not built to handle physical teams. John Feliciano in particular continues to show why he's not an NFL starting olinemen and both tackles struggled mightily again including Spencer Brown crashing to earth in a major way. On defense once again the pass rush was non existent against a QB and team that has been among the worst in the league until they played the Bills off course. As a result once again Levi Wallace was exposed as the weak link getting throw at and completed on over and over again. Just not sure the Bills can overcome this even if they attempt to address at the trade deadline and this is why sadly I don't think they ultimately go very far in the playoffs this year especially if they match up against the Titans or a simliar team again.

 

4) Defense owned and exposed?

Piggy backing off the last question, it's really hard to know if this defense simply had a let down or just isn't as good as we thought. Realistically for me it's probably somewhere in between. Yes there is a talent on defense but it's more a collection of really good role players/above average players and no true game changers (at least against other playoff caliber teams). And once again this is why I've always hated this scheme and the whole 'bend but don't break' style because when it works great, but when it breaks it truly breaks as we saw pretty much the entire game after the 1st quarter against the Titans. I'm sure this defense will come out of the bye week and look great again against the likes of the Dolphins, Jets, etc but there are still going to be a lot of question marks until we play a legit team again.  Also no matter what way you spin it,  a defense that some were comparing to the 2000 Ravens has lost to a washed up Big Ben and Ryan Tannenhill so far this year in just 6 games.

 

Anyways, hopefully this team comes out angry and has a similar finish to the season after last years pre bye week debacle.

Good points Filthy Beast.  However, its a long season.  We lost because Josh Allen slipped on 4th and 1/2 yard at the Titans 2 yard line.  I didn't like the play call.  Thought we should have run Josh out of shotgun where he has momentum and can see where the crease is.  Or go under center, fake a dive and throw to a TE in the endzone.  It was a heartbreaking loss.  But a thoroughly entertaining game.  

 

There are some issues with our team.  But there are with every team.  The defense needs more then Rouseau that can rush the passer.  Addison is done.  And did Epenesa and Basham even dress for the game?  Levi continues to be a liability against any good WR.  He doesn't suck.  But he is just not athletic enuf to play man coverage.  The O line is inconsistent.  And we still do not have a RB that is anymore then a little above average.  That being said, Josh Allen is as good as it gets right now.  He will be our guy for years to come.  And we will win multiple Super Bowls with him.  But the defense does need to up its game coming out of the bye week.

 

And lets not forget the holding penalty on McKenzie's kickoff return.  A Smith lets go of his man and we are up by 4 with 2+ minutes to play. 

 

Seasons are not made in Week 6.  McDermott will have us ready coming off the bye.  I fully expect and believe that.  That is the moxie that the McBeane Bills have.  If we played that game 10 times in Nashville, we win at least 6.  We play that game in Buffalo last nite.  We win 8 out of 10.     

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I wouldn’t…. I’d expect Baltimore to get revenge from last years championship game…

Division game...

 

I'd expect the Ravens to want revenge, but the Bills are a bad match-up for them.

[UKBillFan]

17 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Yes they have.

 

They don't "fall on the wrong side of it far too often" as you said. That's what losing teams do. The Bills literally were in the AFCCG last year.

And had a poor game when we got there. Maybe it’s unfair but I haven’t seen anything so far which suggests this year will be any different.

[WhoTom]

3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Division game...

 

I'd expect the Ravens to want revenge, but the Bills are a bad match-up for them.

 

Agreed. Just like the Bills wanted revenge against the Titans, but the Titans were a bad match-up.

I don't fear the Ravens at all.

 

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

And had a poor game when we got there. Maybe it’s unfair but I haven’t seen anything so far which suggests this year will be any different.

Fine, but that's simply a choice.

 

There's been plenty of things to see from the #1 scorring offense and defense these past 4 weeks. When they're something like 9-3 after they're next loss, I assume you'll feel the same way.

[dave mcbride]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I wouldn’t…. I’d expect Baltimore to get revenge from last years championship game…

Ravens should’ve lost to the Lions three weeks ago…. They are going to drop a couple soon, IMO… especially in that division…. I think they win 11-12 when it’s all said and done.

I think it's more a case of the Ravens overcoming a raft of preseason injuries and getting better and better. They basically went into the season with no credible RBs on a RB-centric team. We shall see, of course. 

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Agreed. Just like the Bills wanted revenge against the Titans, but the Titans were a bad match-up.

I don't fear the Ravens at all.

 

I do hate playing Steelers, Titans, Ravens, Pats, and KC simply because of their physical nature. I always expect a slug fest.

[Jauronimo]

We have outplayed all 6 opponents.  Red zone efficiency is the difference in our 2 losses.  Also, Buffalo is now 0-2 when not winning the turnover battle. Last night it was 1 each.

[teef]

27 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Jets>Bills. 

Can you imagine this place if the jets beat the bills?   I’d be happy and terrified at the same time. 

Edited October 19, 2021 by teef

[Gen2]

24 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Biggest issue for me, and one we have to somehow rectify in-season, is that yes... only a few teams are ground/pound/stout DL.... they are in the AFC:  TEN, BAL, CLE and PIT.   Tennessee and Baltimore are locks for the Playoffs.  Cleveland is probable.  Pittsburgh with an outside shot.   Chances are we will have to play at least one of these teams in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl.   

 

I agree 100% with your assessment of last nights game, when we don't match up favorably with a team we pretty much have to play a mistake free game ... and we didn't.

 

As for the other ground & pound teams ... just heard on the radio that Mayfield may very well have a season ending injury, I was driving so I only caught it out of the corner of my ear. Something about a completely torn labrum, with some other issues. He's going in for a second opinion.

 

As you said we normally do pretty well against Baltimore.

 

As for Pittsburgh, they're not that tough, we should have never lost to them week 1, if we see them again we will beat them.

 

Which leaves us with Tennessee ... and I don't know how anybody stops Henry, but the Cards and the Jets did, so we have the rest of the season to figure it out.