Allen QB sneak success rate

[Tommy]

22 minutes ago, mannc said:

Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left.  Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though.

 

No, we didn't. We still had a timeout.

[CapeBreton]

 

[mannc]

Just now, Tommy said:

 

No, we didn't. We still had a timeout.

Then you have to convert yet another short yardage play against a defense that has been stopping you in the red zone all night. 

[ArdmoreRyno]

31 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

0-2 last night.  Should be automatic.  OL was abused all night last night and really was just flat-out embarrassing.  

 

Yep

 

My ONLY issue with that 4th and inches play last night was we ran the SAME PLAY on the goal line earlier in the game. It was 100% identical, Allen under center going left. He got blown up the first time when 3 Titan defenders crushed him. 

 

That's where he likes to go... so if I knew where he was going, they definitely had to know. Would have rather him handed it off to Moss on that last play. 

5 minutes ago, Tommy said:

 

No, we didn't. We still had a timeout.

 

Yep. He makes it... spikes it with one or two more throws into the EZ (or even a run then a timeout) before the FG attempt. 

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. 

 

I heard on GMFB that before the last night it was 13 of 14 successful QB sneaks of one yd or less

Edited October 19, 2021 by JMF2006

[wiseman3]

I just brought myself to watch the replay....my god Dawkins and Feliciano got blown up. Dawkins ended up a yard into the backfield. Not ideal for your franchise left tackle

[BuffaloBaumer]

Too bad they did not save the Buffalo Special play for that 4th and 1...

[Alphadawg7]

Hes only ever NOT converted just one or two times on down and 1 or down and 2.  I say "down" instead of 4th down because we have run the QB Sneak to pick up a first or TD on other downs as well.  

 

Great choice to go for it, and I love McD saying he will go with Josh 10 out 10 times there and has his complete trust.  The mistake was by Dabol trying to be cute and tricky with the play rather than just lining up and running it with Josh above center.  Neither him nor the OL really seemed dug in as a result of the attempt at confusing them.  They didnt even give Josh a chance to hard count them.

 

Line Josh up over the center from the get go and I believe they absolutely convert or get them to jump.  Dabol needs to STOP trying to be slick in these moments and just run their best play.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, mannc said:

Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left.  Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though.

 

I think I would have preferred that they try something that had a chance to score, myself.

 

We had failed two previous "and 1" conversions (3rd and 2nd I think), one due to a Dawkins false start and one where Allen was stuffed.  To me, how you're performing in a game should outweigh overall general statistics.

 

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Hes only ever NOT converted just one or two times on down and 1 or down and 2.  I say "down" instead of 4th down because we have run the QB Sneak to pick up a first or TD on other downs as well.  

 

Great choice to go for it, and I love McD saying he will go with Josh 10 out 10 times there and has his complete trust.  The mistake was by Dabol trying to be cute and tricky with the play rather than just lining up and running it with Josh above center.  Neither him nor the OL really seemed dug in as a result of the attempt at confusing them.  They didnt even give Josh a chance to hard count them.

 

Line Josh up over the center from the get go and I believe they absolutely convert or get them to jump.  Dabol needs to STOP trying to be slick in these moments and just run their best play.

 

I don't know if it's true, but someone said that Allen always runs the sneak to the L of center.

 

If true, IMO that's a coaching failure to either not change how he sneaks, or run a different play because with Barkley on the team the Titans D most certainly had the inside gouge on every detail of Allen's persistent tendencies

 

14 minutes ago, wiseman3 said:

I just brought myself to watch the replay....my god Dawkins and Feliciano got blown up. Dawkins ended up a yard into the backfield. Not ideal for your franchise left tackle

 

Dawkins is either still struggling to get back into shape post-Covid or still struggling with the work-life balance between football and "The Glamorous Life"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

My ONLY issue with that 4th and inches play last night was we ran the SAME PLAY on the goal line earlier in the game. It was 100% identical, Allen under center going left. He got blown up the first time when 3 Titan defenders crushed him.

 

This

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don't know if it's true, but someone said that Allen always runs the sneak to the L of center.

 

If true, IMO that's a coaching failure to either not change how he sneaks, or run a different play because with Barkley on the team the Titans D most certainly had the inside gouge on every detail of Allen's persistent tendencies

 

Yeah if true it certainly is a mistake with Barkley on the other side 

[mannc]

24 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I heard on GMFB that before the last night it was 13 of 14 successful QB sneaks of one yd or less

But how many of those 13 were against Jeffrey Simmons?  What a monster...

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. 

 

 

Thing is, it's like asking what a guy's success rate is with asking a woman out on dates, finding out it's 80%, and thinking that therefore if he asks out Beyonce, Ariana Grande and Gal Godot out his chances of getting at least one yes is close to absolute.

 

Every woman is different. Every sneak situation is different.

 

An awful lot of his successful sneaks have come when there was no defender in one of the center-guard gaps because they weren't ready for a sneak.

 

The Titans were ready.

 

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left.  Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though.

50 minutes ago, mannc said:

Then you have to convert yet another short yardage play against a defense that has been stopping you in the red zone all night. 

 

 

But with a first down and 18 seconds left and the clock stopped with that final timeout, you throw in the end zone and get a TD or an incompletion each time and you have probably three or four plays. 

 

It wasn't a brain fart at all, or at least not for that reason. If we'd been successful we'd have been just fine on time.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Thurman#1

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, fasteddie said:

I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately,  McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. 

I’m always hesitant to make that type of statement because, well, I’ll admit I’ve never been in the trenches trying to actually do it. But … you have a point. The offense knows the snap count. Other than a few Star type DTs, offensive lineman are generally bigger than their defensive counterparts, and their game is more about leverage. So I guess I don’t get it either. 
Anyone here who played on either side of the line who can explain?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I’m always hesitant to make that type of statement because, well, I’ll admit I’ve never been in the trenches trying to actually do it. But … you have a point. The offense knows the snap count. Other than a few Star type DTs, offensive lineman are generally bigger than their defensive counterparts, and their game is more about leverage. So I guess I don’t get it either. 
Anyone here who played on either side of the line who can explain?

 

I haven't played on either side of the line but I know some physics.  It's all about timing and positioning to obtain that leverage.

 

The defense can know the snap count too, if the offense hasn't been changing it up.  Then if they engage the OLman before the OLman gets in position to sustain leverage, it's advantage to the DL.  It's the old F = m*A thing, if there's acceleration from the DL, the higher m is overcome.

 

In this case, it looks as though the OL was blocking to the R, as though opening a space between the C and the G, as a form of misdirection while the QB heads for the LG-LT gap.  But the defender knew what was coming and attacked to (our) L, closing the gap Allen needed.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, fasteddie said:

I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately,  McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. 

 

 

That's not the problem. Go look at how the Titans lined up. They had a guy in each of the center-guard gaps and a guy between Feliciano and Dawkins, all really tight. They were running into a 2 on 3 for Feliciano and Morse. That tight, it was a horrible setup. Two 1-techs and a 3-tech on the left.

 

The reason Brady has such a high sneak success rate is because when he sees the defense set up like that he audibles to something attacking somewhere else.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left.  Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though.

 

They didn't.  Allen changed it to a sneak per McD's post game presser.  Said he has the ability in those situations to call his own number so to speak, and that he trusts his judgement and had no issues with him trying it there.

[Nuncha]

The left side of the O-line got completely blown up on that 4th down play.  Would have been nice to see a wrinkle there rather than the predictable sneak.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, fasteddie said:

I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately,  McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. 

We do not have a dominant OL by any stretch of the imagination. I would've loved to see 2 TE's on that play maybe allowing Josh an outside option but Knox was hurt. Get a 3rd TE Sean and stop with the FB nonsense. 

[The Frankish Reich]

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's not the problem. Go look at how the Titans lined up. They had a guy in each of the center-guard gaps and a guy between Feliciano and Dawkins, all really tight. They were running into a 2 on 3 for Feliciano and Morse. That tight, it was a horrible setup. Two 1-techs and a 3-tech on the left.

 

The reason Brady has such a high sneak success rate is because when he sees the defense set up like that he audibles to something attacking somewhere else.

Makes sense. There’s a reason he’s the GOAT. 

[ducking for cover]