McDermott Has Evolved

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

McDermott has been heavily criticized in the past for going the conservative route when push came to shove.  Him choosing to go for it on 4th and inches is a significant step imo as I think Sean kicks the field goal at this same time last year.  His first year when he punted in the snow game making a tie highly likely which would've essentially knocked us out of playoff contention.  He got lucky that it worked out but I still can't defend that call.  Then not going for it on 4th and short before the half last year against KC and again in the 3rd quarter when you knew field goals weren't going to cut it against that team.

 

In this situation the analytics were on your side.  The way the game was playing out made it an easier decision.  Our defense was reeling and all we needed was the best player on our team tonight to pick up half a hard.  You put it in Josh's hands.  If he doesn't slip it's a first down at minimum and likely would've led to a game winning touchdown.  This loss sucks but I thought McDermott showed the aggressiveness needed in a head coach in today's NFL.  That bodes well for this team going forward.

 

Actually, at no point as he ever really been conservative.  People tried to label him that when he didnt have the proper players to be more aggressive his first year, but if people paid attention he was always aggressive in his decisions his entire tenure here.  And thats only ramped up even more since the first day Josh stepped on the field.  

 

So I do not understand how people seem to think he is suddenly now more conservative when he has been coaching this way most of his tenure here and certainly since Josh became the starting QB.  

Edited October 19, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Golden*Wheels]

If we hadn't had such an issue stopping them late I'd be more upset. I feel like you actually show MORE faith in your team by saying...the longer this game goes on, we have the superior talent, and that will show. But yeah we didn't look to be stopping them at all sooo.....it's all good.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Would you have gone for 4th and 3 from the 5 in a 0-0 game? Or the 4th and goal from the 10 while leading 3-0 ?

 

And to note that the DEF was playing lights out at that point of the game. 

 

I ripped on McDermotts 4th down decisions in the Steelers game, but I thought he was 100% correct on 4th down calls last night. 

 

Of course you do!  How do you tell THIS Offense that, not only do you not  think they can score from the 5,, but that you aren't confident they can't even get 3 yards.  WTF??

 

It makes infinitely more sense to take a shot at that point in the game....then on the last play of the game...when a FG gets a new clock all tied!

 

Both bad decisions.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

5 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Where was the aggressiveness on the 24 yard and 28 yard field goals in the first quarter?

 

Yep. Convert one of those and get a TD that’s 7 points not 6, so we could have kicked a FG to win instead of the QB sneak.

 

I forget what the yardage to get the 1st was for each of those though. If they were both 4th & long it’s understandable.

[Kwai San]

6 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

First, I don’t have a problem with going for it, but the blocking wasn’t there.  Forget the slip of the feet.  I believe it was Feliciano who slanted in, and the outside penetrated, so Feliciano helped Morse, but there was a gap open.  Allen based on the way the play evolved wouldn’t have made it.  I would’ve been fine with the field goal, and it would’ve been a toss up.  We were moving the ball, and Bass has been consistent for a long time now.  Then again, our D Line wasn’t getting much pressure so it’s a toss up.

 

I don’t think you pin the loss on that one play.  We have to go back to the drawing board for after the break.  I don’t know if it was a good decision to sit AJ and Basham.  Addison had one play I could see helped, but overall, eh.  Wallace was picked on as expected, but still overall a solid CB.  It’s not Madden and the other four are excellent.  Those penalties by Sanders and the hold on the McKenzie return sucked.  We could’ve won that game and credit to the Titans for playing a tough physical game.

 

You know after the Cards loss, we destroyed teams.  Look fir the same this year.  Fins, Jags, Jets, Cheats, be very afraid.  You’re going to pay for Henry after four years embarrassing us.  You too Colts, and Saints.  I can easily see us 10-2 going into the Bucs game.  Wentz is nothing, and Winston at times can be a pick machine.  I know you guys are PO’ed, but we’ll bounce back and play more angry than ever before.  They get two weeks to stew on the fact we were not the physical team last night.  They were.  Like us healthy as we can’t blame anything on injuries like last year, they had back their three weapons in Julio, Brown, and the King.  He showed his nickname.  I can hear the call from my 91 yr. old dad we should’ve tackled Henry today.  It’s almost not even worth telling him the man is a truck at 255 lbs., and it’s like tackling a Sherman tank.

 

The next challenge.  BEAT THE EVER LIVING CRAP OUT IF THE TEAM WHICH IS MY CURRENT HOME TOWN IN THE BUCS. We do that and all is forgiven and forgotten.  

I too want the ***** stomping win overthe Bucs and agree this loss stings but they were not going to win them all.

[machine gun kelly]

Exactly Kwai.  Quick choice guys, no substitutions (I sound like a Chinese restaurant), Wouk Doty rather lose 34-31 to the Titans with all of their talent back and if you want to pin it on a last ditch courageous call by McD, or lose to the Cheats.

 

Blasphemy I say.  Destroy the East and anyone else who gets in our way, and give the Bucs every last thing we have and expose hopefully that secondary.

[Big Turk]

The players loved this call, guaranteed.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

McDermott this season is picking and choosing when to be aggressive and you shouldn't be deciding mid game it should be part of the game plan (see last night and week 1 against pit first half punting on 4th and short and then 2nd half going for on 4th and long) 

 

If you plan to be aggressive it changes how daboll calls plays. Instead of calling plays for first downs in 3 plays or less he gets an extra down. So a 3rd and 7 at mid field a team that is playing conservative its a passing down. A team that plays aggressive every play in the playbook is open, because if you get 3-5 yards you go for it on 4th and 3 or less

 

[Utah John]

McDermott saw the Titans score on their last six or seven possessions.  His defense wasn't stopping them.  

 

The Colts-Ravens OT game was won/lost on the coin flip.  Once the Ravens got the OT KO, the game was over.  McDermott wasn't going there.  It would have been a much more devastating loss for the Bills' morale to lose that way.  I completely agree with the decision to go for it on 4th down.  I don't agree with the call.  Instead of getting into a contest of who's more manly on the LOS, be smart and fake the sneak and run wide, or pass.  

 

Also, the first few drives the Titans couldn't do anything.  It looked like they were not going to score a lot.  Taking the first two FGs was the smart move.  It didn't work out because something changed during the game.  I'll wait for the all-22 but I'm thinking the Titans changed their blocking scheme and the Bills had no answer.  

 

The last couple of drives, the Bills made the choice for Tannehill very easy on every down.  If Edmunds played close to the LOS to help stop Henry, a play action worked every time for an easy completion to Brown over the middle.  If Edmunds backed out, he'd hand off to Henry.  This was not rocket science.  For a professional defense, whether ranked as the top D or not, not to be able to handle this, was very disappointing.

 

 

[Billsguy]

McDermott has to improve. Explaining his decision to go for it on fourth down, he said after the game that he trusts his players. He also said he didn't want to give the Titans another chance because they were dominating the Bills defense in the second half. In other words, he trusted the offense to get the first down, but he didn't trust his defense to stop the Titans if the game went to overtime. Weak answer. This is talking out of both sides of your mouth. McDermott's response to the question was poor and unacceptable. I agree with the decision to go for it, but the play call was abysmal. This is partly due to the Bills not having a quality running back or a  strong offensive line. Did you see Dion Dawkins get blown up on the play? Pathetic. The play call was the real weak link. What sense does it make to QB sneak into an area packed tightly with 300+ lb. lineman and no space whatsoever? None. The Bills lost a game that they should have won. This loss was on the coaching. Titans DL was crushing the Bills OL the whole game and on fourth down you forget that fact? Hopefully McDermott will learn from it. And hopefully another team will hire Daboll next year.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

yup.  Why toss this game away? Get some clock in OT

I think the part we don't really talk about is we were probably going to be a sizeable underdog in OT...win percentage was probably higher sneaking on that 4th and inches especially because we were finally sticking it to the titans dline a bit.  In OT both teams wouldve marched down the field but theres no way we were stopping them in the red zone

6 minutes ago, Billsguy said:

McDermott has to improve. Explaining his decision to go for it on fourth down, he said after the game that he trusts his players. He also said he didn't want to give the Titans another chance because they were dominating the Bills defense in the second half. In other words, he trusted the offense to get the first down, but he didn't trust his defense to stop the Titans if the game went to overtime. Weak answer. This is talking out of both sides of your mouth. McDermott's response to the question was poor and unacceptable. I agree with the decision to go for it, but the play call was abysmal. This is partly due to the Bills not having a quality running back or a  strong offensive line. Did you see Dion Dawkins get blown up on the play? Pathetic. The play call was the real weak link. What sense does it make to QB sneak into an area packed tightly with 300+ lb. lineman and no space whatsoever? None. The Bills lost a game that they should have won. This loss was on the coaching. Titans DL was crushing the Bills OL the whole game and on fourth down you forget that fact? Hopefully McDermott will learn from it. And hopefully another team will hire Daboll next year.

Lol how is that a weak answer? That is literally exactly what happened in the game.  The Titans DL was not crushing us at the end of the game...Josh had tons of time...sneak was the right call he gets that 90% of the time...even with the putrid blocking I bet he picks it up if he didn't slip on Dawkins getting shoved into his lap 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[billsfan89]

The decision to go for it on 4th down in a road game shootout is absolutely the right decision. But the QB sneak play call was questionable in my opinion. The Bills had trouble in the past with QB sneaks and Josh had if I remember correctly had failed to convert one earlier in the game. I would preferred they done a different type of play call in that situation but going for it? Absolutely the right call even if it didn't work out. 

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He's not 260. I've seen it everywhere from 237 to 250, but it's most likely low to middle of that range. The other Josh Allen, the DE, runs around 255. Are you thinking of him? Our Josh is a big strong dude, but he's been stopped on sneaks before.

 

And if he didn't slip, he still wasn't getting the yardage there. Might possibly have been able to change direction or something, but they had it stopped.

Thanks to dawkins getting wrecked by simmons

 

one player dominated another player and decided the outcome of the game.  

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think the part we don't really talk about is we were probably going to be a sizeable underdog in OT...win percentage was probably higher sneaking on that 4th and inches especially because we were finally sticking it to the titans dline a bit.  In OT both teams wouldve marched down the field but theres no way we were stopping them in the red zone

Lol how is that a weak answer? That is literally exactly what happened in the game.  The Titans DL was not crushing us at the end of the game...Josh had tons of time...sneak was the right call he gets that 90% of the time...even with the putrid blocking I bet he picks it up if he didn't slip on Dawkins getting shoved into his lap 

 

Bass gets the tying FG 100% of the time at that range.  The math is easy on this one.  

 

 

Also, claiming the Bills would be a "sizable underdog" in OT is not believable.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Bass gets the tying FG 100% of the time at that range.  The math is easy on this one.  

 

 

Also, claiming the Bills would be a "sizable underdog" in OT is not believable.  

How is it not believable? Ten is built for red zone success and we were struggling in the red zone.  I dont think theyre the better team overall but the way that game was playing out nobody was stopping anybody from marching down to the red zone and they were considerably more likely to punch it into the end zone. We couldn't even stop them in 3 down series how would we have stopped them when they had 4 to work with.  I wouldve put us at a 60/40 underdog in OT if I had to guess and that 4th and inches play when ten is showing 4 down linemen we probably pick up like 80-90% of the time.  Honestly I think it's more likely Bass misses a fg/bad snap/bad hold/blocked fg than allen gets stopped on 4th and inches there it was just a freak play.  If it was 4th and a full yard totally different story 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[CodeMonkey]

McDermott Has Evolved: He actually has not.  He still makes bad in game decisions like the final play.

[Mr. WEO]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

How is it not believable? Ten is built for red zone success and we were struggling in the red zone.  I dont think theyre the better team overall but the way that game was playing out nobody was stopping anybody from marching down to the red zone and they were considerably more likely to punch it into the end zone. We couldn't even stop them in 3 down series how would we have stopped them when they had 4 to work with.  I wouldve put us at a 60/40 underdog in OT if I had to guess and that 4th and inches play when ten is showing 4 down linemen we probably pick up like 80-90% of the time.  Honestly I think it's more likely Bass misses a fg/bad snap/bad hold/blocked fg than allen gets stopped on 4th and inches there it was just a freak play.  If it was 4th and a full yard totally different story 

 

Bass is 17/17 inside the 30.  He's not missing that kick.  Then the Bills march down the field (you know, like they did in the last 3 minutes off the game, with ease) and take home shots into the EZ.

 

If the Bills can't handle a depleted Tennessee (who's D was bad coming into the game) in OT with the top O and top D in the NFL, who are they beating in the playoffs?

 

 

[GoBills808]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I genuinely hate the whole "I liked the guts" thing. Guts means squat. Smart is much much better. It takes real guts to take off your helmet and run into a brick wall head first time and time again. Guts. Aggressiveness. Courage. And complete insanity and stupidity. 

 

It's much much better to judge whether to do something based on how smart it is than how much guts it would take.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

37 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

 

Completely misses the point.

 

Every sneak is different. Most sneaks come on plays where there is only one 1-tech. Meaning the gap on either the left or right side of the center doesn't have a man in it. And yeah, especially with nobody in one of those gaps, the conversion possibility is high. The Titans thought a sneak was probably the most likely thing the Bills would call. They were ready. They had two guys playing 1-tech, meaning the center had a guy right on each shoulder and there was a 3-tech between Dawkins and Feliciano as well. 

 

The Titans were completely ready for this. In some situations it's a great call and the possibility of success is high. This was NOT one of those times.

 

 

 

The analogy is that you can study a fairly handsome, smooth guy's success rate in asking out women he doesn't know. And maybe his conversion possibility is 75%. But if this time he's asking out Luciana Barroso, who is both spectacularly beautiful and happily married to Matt Damon, his odds on a conversion are not 75% in this case.

 

Same here. Awful situation. They did not have a 75% chance with the defense set up as it was.

 

This was gutsy, but in the situation it was not smart. If you have a choice between gutsy and smart, go with smart.

 

Allen will learn, but this was a bad decision.

 

 

 

59 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

McDermott Has Evolved: He actually has not.  He still makes bad in game decisions like the final play.

 

 

Just read in another thread that Allen admits to changing the play. Wasn't McDermott's or Daboll's call.

 

McDermott absolutely has evolved, but this was a bad decision, by Allen. I'd have kicked the FG myself, but at least would have called a different play. Daboll/McDermott did.

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

How is it not believable? Ten is built for red zone success and we were struggling in the red zone.  I dont think theyre the better team overall but the way that game was playing out nobody was stopping anybody from marching down to the red zone and they were considerably more likely to punch it into the end zone. We couldn't even stop them in 3 down series how would we have stopped them when they had 4 to work with.  I wouldve put us at a 60/40 underdog in OT if I had to guess and that 4th and inches play when ten is showing 4 down linemen we probably pick up like 80-90% of the time.  Honestly I think it's more likely Bass misses a fg/bad snap/bad hold/blocked fg than allen gets stopped on 4th and inches there it was just a freak play.  If it was 4th and a full yard totally different story 

 

 

He's right, it's not believable. 

 

We scored as many points as they did. We held them to as few points as we had managed. It would have been even odds, probably we'd have been favored a bit, as we were in the game.

 

And yet again, the reason sneaks succeed at such a high rate is that teams aren't ready for them, one of the 1-gaps is empty. In this situation that play was absolutely not an 80 - 90% chance. Not even close.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Thurman#1