TNF: Bucs at Eagles

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

An argument can be made that Sirianni is doing exactly what he should do with Hurts.  Find out if he can be an elite QB.    With 3 first rounders next year, better to find out now what you got in Hurts.  

Elite?? In the 1.5 games I have watched, he looked to be barely a serviceable QB. He just seems to throw the ball in the general direction of his receivers, rarely goes through his progressions, looks skittish and not poised. Yesterday's terrible performance was against the bottom ranked defensive backfield. Plus he had plenty of time to throw.

I know Flacco is  over the hill, but maybe he can at least manage the game. 

47 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is Jalen Hurts a better version of Tyrod Taylor?

Imo, TT was tentative but at least  protected the football and scrambled a lot better than Hurts. So, I think Hurts is not a better version of TT 

Edited October 15, 2021 by Fan in Chicago

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28100383/going-2-8-points-why-nfl-teams-keep-doing-why-analytics-backs-up

 

Basically, going for 2 the first try increases your chances of winning. If you get it, you kick the PAT on the next score and win. If you don't get it, you go for 2 the next time and have a pretty decent chance of tying.

 

If you kick the PAT the first time and miss it, you're in the same boat as if you had missed the 2 point conversion; going for 2 on the second try to tie it. If you kick the PAT the first time and make it, you still have to go for 2 the next time (if you're going for the win), only this time failing to convert means you lost while converting doesn't increase your odds anymore than the going for 2 the first time around does.

 

Put simpler, assuming you're going to score two TDs while your opponent scores 0, you're left with the following odds:

1. 2 Point conversion --> PAT = 59% win probability
2. PAT --> PAT = 45.5% win probability
3. PAT --> 2 Point conversion = 45% win probability

That's all smart stuff, and of course I'm with you.

 

But what I'm thinking about (and doing a poor job of representing clearly) is when a team is down two scores and NEEDS a 2-pt conversion just to TIE (this can be either an 11 or 15 point deficit). You take the sure thing the first time around (FG or TD+PAT) to stay alive for a chance after the second score. 

 

I think this is a case of miscommunication on my part.

[Warcodered]

12 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

That's all smart stuff, and of course I'm with you.

 

But what I'm thinking about (and doing a poor job of representing clearly) is when a team is down two scores and NEEDS a 2-pt conversion just to TIE (this can be either an 11 or 15 point deficit). You take the sure thing the first time around (FG or TD+PAT) to stay alive for a chance after the second score. 

 

I think this is a case of miscommunication on my part.

They didn't need a 2pt conversion to tie they needed it to win.

[Richard Noggin]

11 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

They didn't need a 2pt conversion to tie they needed it to win.

Right, which is why I'm idiotically arguing a point that no one else is, and now trying to steer you all into my fun world of tangents.

 

Won't you join me?