Deep dive into Bills offense

[Desert Bills Fan]

I loved this analysis of the KC game! Like many I was stumped by the initial tight grouping… and Kumerow was in there? and Sweeney and then Gilliam in H back, and McKenzie in the backfield...reading this and seeing the replays and diagram, I now see so much more and the light went on.

the guy is also excited about the Bills. As was pointed out - some may be over exaggerated, or not exact statistics - but it made this also a fun read. Yes I recommend even those who aren’t X & O fan types should read this one. 

Just amazing!

Edited October 13, 2021 by Desert Bills Fan

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

We're leading the league in points scored.  What kind of statistical production you lookin' for?

 

We are also getting incredibly good field position because the defense has been elite. Our average drive start is at the 35.93 yard line which is #1 in the league. The defense is making it very easy on the offense this year. Not that I'm complaining.

 

My preferred metric is DVOA. That has our offense ranked 12th. Last year we were 5th. If this year's offense catches up to last year's offense without the defense missing a step we will be unbeatable.

 

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I agree that one wouldn't call our run game "elite", but at present, the Ravens have 744 rushing yds and we have 704.  That's not a typo; we have 40 less rush yards than the Ravens

 

True but defenses know the Ravens want to run the football and sell out to stop it. Their rushing production is more impressive in that light. The Bills run offense is more opportunistic. If we tried to make our run game a focal point it wouldn't work. Defenses facing us respect our pass game and give us light boxes as a result. The crazy thing is last year we got light boxes and still couldn't capitalize. This year the run game has at least been competent.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

I loved this analysis of the KC game! Like many I was stumped by the initial tight grouping… and Kumerow was in there? and Sweeney and then Gilliam in H back, and McKenzie in the backfield...reading this and seeing the replays and diagram, I now see so much more and the light went on.

the guy is also excited about the Bills. As was pointed out - some may be over exaggerated, or not exact statistics - but it made this also a fun read. Yes I recommend even those who aren’t X & O fan types should read this one. 

Just amazing!

 

Agreed that it was a highly entertaining read, and it was a great explanation of how Daboll set the Bills up to "solve" or stymie the Chiefs.

 

Just don't take what he says about the Bills offense historically or earlier this season too seriously.

[Big Turk]

12 hours ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

Now let's do it again against the Titans.  Will be curious to see how we play Derrick Henry.  I wonder if TN will try the "ball control" method with time of possession.

 

We've held him in check both previous games.  He's combined for 39 carries for 135 yards, under a 3.5 YPC.  Bills always seem to do a good job against "premier" backs/rushing attacks under McD

[Wayne Cubed]

I talked about this in the Kumerow thread but I think the biggest dfference is in personnel. Daboll wants specific players in specific formations to creat mismatches.

 

For example, the Allen TD run is all about personnel. It's 11 personnel, so a 3WR, 1TE and 1RB formation. It's all about who those 3 WRs are and who the running back is because it's option run. This works because the 3 WRs are Diggs, Sanders and McKenzie. All speed options with McKenzie as the jet sweep option in there as a threat and then Moss adds the threat of a power dive run. This formation and play doesn't work with 26 and 11, imo.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Prob been said before, but Allen completed just 15 passes for 315 yards.  That's 21 yards per completion!  They are building this offense to attack and hit the big play over and over again.  To demoralize the opposing defense as quickly and as thoroughly as possible.  The coaches know Josh isn't perfect and is prob going to make a few mistakes each game just trying too hard.  That's his nature.  But they are building this offense with just that in mind.  Because if you give him enough opportunities, he will hit big plays all day long. 

 

If his long ball isn't on for that particular day (over 30 yards) so be it.  He'll tear you up with the intermediate stuff.  Take away both of those, they'll get it to the backs who can run for 10+ yards or more on swing passes and dunks over the middle while your D is turning to cover all the wideouts and TE's running deep.  Moss did that all night Sunday.  Try to cover all those, Josh will run it for 8 to 30 yards.  Pick your poison. 

[Neo]

12 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

"You don’t serve Châteauneuf-du-Pape at a family barbeque; you crush margaritas."

 

-This MF spittin' 

 

He got me, too.   That’s an example of a writer “creating separation” from his peers.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

We've held him in check both previous games.  He's combined for 39 carries for 135 yards, under a 3.5 YPC.  Bills always seem to do a good job against "premier" backs/rushing attacks under McD

 

Doesn't count as a positive when you hold the premier back to 57 yds, but give up 139 yds on the ground including key big runs from the QB.

But it's a true point that ST did their part to lose us that game, with a pick on a catchable-but-off-target throw from Allen to Roberts as the cherry on the Sunday.

[Buffalo Boy]

12 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

The thing that rings so true in his analysis, even though Connolly never explicitly acknowledges the link, is that: the E-P passing offense Daboll is schooled in relies on running the same route concepts but out of different formations and personnel groupings. This allows for pre-snap motions (which help the QB diagnose coverage) and the illusion of schematic complexity/diversity when in fact the offense is just dressing up the same core route concepts and combinations in different looks. 

   For years now we’ve heard about Daboll’s NE background.

   For years longer than that, we watched the Pats switch formations , at will, and beat the living crap out of us( and others)

    I’ve been waiting to see Daboll’s past bear fruit and Sunday it happened.

    Taking the longer view, as Josh and company get comfortable in these sets, running these plays successfully, we start to become THAT team. The team that can seemingly do everything and do it well.

    AWESOME read!!!!!

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Doesn't count as a positive when you hold the premier back to 57 yds, but give up 139 yds on the ground including key big runs from the QB.

But it's a true point that ST did their part to lose us that game, with a pick on a catchable-but-off-target throw from Allen to Roberts as the cherry on the Sunday.

 

Also didn't help we were missing half the defense that game.

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

OK read it now.

 

I think his assessment of the Chiefs game formations itself is very good.

 

When he starts talking about the Bills in previous years, or what Allen likes to do, or Daboll's "simple" playbook which John Brown called "the most complicated he'd seen", it's shallow as an August stream in Missouri.   And of course, he makes it sound like there was a philosophical transition between 2019 and 2020 due to realizing Allen was a bad QB: "And then they woke up and realized that Allen was a bad college player. So why were they trying so hard to run all that heavy personnel and deep play-action stuff? If he was bad within that setup in college could they really be surprised that he was just as bad in the league? In 2020, Daboll took the hand brake off, and – hey presto – Allen became an MVP candidate."  This is 1) insulting to Allen and Daboll 2) blind to the fact that in 2020, the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs and drafted Gabe Davis, giving them the WR personnel to actually operate with Brown and Beasley out of 4 or 5 WR sets.  In 2019, the Bills really had Brown Beasley and ?who? at WR, and they had a true fullback and a great blocking TE on the roster, and they were tenuous at RT - so it makes sense they would operate out of more heavy sets. 

 

But they also still ran 70% (1,1) with 3 WR.  They didn't change sets because of this fantasy of the authors that "the Bills woke up and realized that Allen was a bad college player".  They changed sets because they parted ways with DiMarco and acquired a great vet WR and a very good rookie (and McKenzie leveled up his route running as well).  And Allen improved because he worked his ass off to improve his passing technique, not because the Bills changed the offense. 

 

For example, he says "Most quarterbacks like crisscrossing routes because they can spring open throws. Not Allen. He likes to bounce one, to two, to three independently. And then he launches."   This just reads like a guy who really isn't very familiar with Daboll or the Bills at all.  Last year and in some games this season, the Bills thrived on crossing routes.  Daboll used them to great effect to ensure someone or another was open.  Beasley feasted.  I haven't forced myself back through the all-22 of the first 3 games yet, but vs WFT where Beasley collected 98 yds, I'm pretty sure I'm going to find crossing routes.

 

Then there's his initial assessment of the Bills offense "Outside of Arizona, no team has embraced the principles of the spread more than the Bills. And we’re not talking about spread-option, hat-counting football here. We’re talking about old-fashioned, spread-to-throw, true Air-Raid stuff. They plant as many wide receivers on the field as possible, chuck them in as much space as possible, and then throw to the open man. Whether that’s 50 yards, 15 yards or 5 yards downfield depends on the defensive alignment and coverage." 

 

I'm like C'Mon Man.  The Bills ran a lot of empty set (13%) 5 WR and 1 back 4 WR (29%) against the Steelers, and only 52% (1,1) 3 WR that was their bread-n-butter last year, but in the Miami game and even more the WFT game, their predominant set was last year's predominant set, (1,1).  Against Miami we ran 14% (2,1) 2 WR, 2 back sets and 8% against Washington, with almost no 4 or 5 WR sets against Miami and no 5 WR, 8% 4 WR against WFT.  Then against the Texans, we were 55% (1,1) sets, 7% (1,0) 4 WR set, 0 5 WR set, but 20% (2,1) with 2 WR and 2 backs, and 13% (1,2) with 2 WR, 2 TE. 

 

My point is when the guy talks about formations overall in the first 4 games being 76% (1,1) or (1,0), that's true on average but there was actually a lot of game to game variation.

 

Of course, being a total homer, I love it when he says "But all throws are high percentage throws to Allen", however last season, and so far this season, that simply hasn't been true.  Before this game, Allen was 7 for 20 on throws at or beyond 20 yards. 1 of 8 vs Pitts, 2 of 5 vs Miami, 2 of 5 vs WFT, and 2 of 2 vs Texans.  Hitting 1 or 2 deep throws to an open receiver in the Pittsburgh game may well have swung the game, because Tomlin knew bloody well where Allen is deadly (those 10-20 yd throws in the middle of the field) and he did everything he could to take those away.

 

Anyway, nice analysis of the Chiefs game but take his comments about Allen, the Bills offense, and Daboll in general with a large salt shaker to hand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I found some of his comments about earlier seasons odd, too, but didn't really question them.   However, I think the more you think about it, what he says about the previous seasons really doesn't hold up.  If Allen's success in 2020 came from the Bills getting away from the full, complex playbook and just letting Josh bomb away, his yards per completion should have gone up from 2019 to 2020.  They didn't.   Also, his completion percentage should have stayed where it was, because the guy claims the Bills were willing to accept less efficiency in exchange for the big play.   Of course, Allen's completion percentage went way up last year.  

 

What we heard repeatedly, before last season and throughout the last season, was that Allen was developing the discipline to give up the long shot in favor of the sure shorter ball, and that's what we saw.  That was, in fact, why Beasley exploded last season.   The Bills were throwing the ball short all day long.   

 

Now, it may be true that the Bills HAVE tried forcing Allen into being the perfect cerebral passer, with his game governed by mental discipline and now decided that that's foolish - take advantage of his physical skills, but I don't think that's what happened last season, either.  His rushing attempts didn't go up last season, and the offense wasn't restructured to feature Allen.   I mean, it's true that the success of the Bills depends on Allen's great skills, but we didn't see a change from 2019 to 2020.  

 

All we saw in 2020 was a supremely talented quarterback continuing to learn how to play the position in the NFL, along with the addition of Diggs.   Pass protection was pretty poor, and the run game did very little, but Allen got smarter attacking the whole field.  

 

Having said that, I also agree that the discussion to the approach to the Chiefs game was interesting and rang true.  I'm not a great Xs and Os guy, and I hadn't really paid attention to the significant change in formation weighting.  I noticed that the Bills came out tight, but then I got into the game and failed to notice how much the Bills went to it. 

 

I was particularly interested in the replays of Josh's touchdown and how the Bills created overpowering force at the point of attack.  I don't recall the Bills having done that before, and it's perfect for Allen, because in traffic like that, if there's a body on every tackler, Allen can break arm tackles all the way to the end zone, which is exactly what he did.  

 

In the Rockpile Review I commented about how the running game was different in that on multiple plays Singletary or Moss got out behind the blockers and waited for something to develop.   It was a different style than we've seen - it wasn't the zone-blocking, find-a-seam scheme, it wasn't a straight ahead power scheme.   I'm not sure, but Spencer Brown may have helped change all of this.  What I've seen of Brown suggests that he's doing really well holding down his spot.  He isn't getting beaten.   Williams too.   So the Bills have these two anchors on the right, and Morse, Feliciano, and Dawkins all have been participating in these more complex schemes that are creating double teams at the point of attack.  Brown is mobile, too, and we've seen him downfield a lot, but I'm not sure that he's adept yet at being the classic pulling lineman.   

 

The real bottom line is less about Allen and more about Daboll.  Plenty of people, including me, have been wondering about his creativity.  It's only one game, but at least for that game, he came at the Chiefs with stuff that attacked weaknesses in the Chiefs' defense and for which they were completely unprepared.  

 

Finally, many of us, including me, were scratching our heads about Gilliam.  I thought it was McDermott going overboard with his Swiss-Army-knife obsession.  The Bills needed a tight end, and if they needed a fullback, they need a real fullback, not some classic tweener.  As the article makes clear, Gilliam was the perfect guy for the approach Daboll took, because with Gilliam in the huddle, the Chiefs didn't know if they were looking at a power running formation or a classic five-wide, flood-the-zones passing formation, or almost anything in between.   Particularly with Moss on the field, too, the Bills have a lot of formation variation that still offers them an extra blocker to protect Allen in the pocket.  

 

All of it bodes well for the future.  

[YattaOkasan]

Cover 1 analysis of the offensive game (they have a VERY good defensive breakdown too).  I knew the High Low concept on the 2nd Sanders TD.  That was pretty easy to see in real time.  The explanation on the Diggs deep shot was great to tie back to the WFT game.  Always like their stuff and I do know from their past videos over the years, it is incorrect to state that they simplified the offense for Josh.  It is and always was a lot on his plate.   He learned how to master it last year.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

I think Hapless is correct that there are some flaws in the argument, but the basic point regarding the drastic gameplan reversal of tendencies is persuasive. I can't help laughing at the utterly superficial yukyuks provided by the announcers over the "whose the qb play" on the Chief's first td when the whole night was a powerfully effective strategy of countering expectations on the part of the Bills' coaches and players. It was such a good heist, the analysts didn't even see it happening when it was right in front of them.

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I think Hapless is correct that there are some flaws in the argument, but the basic point regarding the drastic gameplan reversal of tendencies is persuasive. I can't help laughing at the utterly superficial yukyuks provided by the announcers over the "whose the qb play" on the Chief's first td when the whole night was a powerfully effective strategy of countering expectations on the part of the Bills' coaches and players. It was such a good heist, the analysts didn't even see it happening when it was right in front of them.

I hated the commentary with that.  Mahomes made a great play to score a TD.  We didnt move (I think a DE stood up) when they were doing all that stupid stuff.  To in any way say they scored cause of all that is wholly wrong imo.  Yet there were Al micheals and Collinsworth talking about how special that was for an OC.  

[uninja]

Who here thought on the first play from scrimmage against the Chiefs that we’d come out in the I formation? 
 

Definitely not the Chiefs.
 

Love that we’re seeing the Bills become that super frustrating (for opposing teams) chameleon type offense where they go out and exploit what you defend poorly. It’s great too that our personnel is so strong that for weaker teams we can run a pretty vanilla scheme and still dominate, thereby not giving anything away for the stronger opponents. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[BigAl2526]

The Bills have the horses to do all kinds of different things, and Daboll has the mind to be able to scheme it.

[aceman_16]

Long article but great read.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I think one under-appreciated factor has been that Josh Allen has improved somewhat on selling the fake handoff.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I found some of his comments about earlier seasons odd, too, but didn't really question them.   However, I think the more you think about it, what he says about the previous seasons really doesn't hold up.  If Allen's success in 2020 came from the Bills getting away from the full, complex playbook and just letting Josh bomb away, his yards per completion should have gone up from 2019 to 2020.  They didn't.   Also, his completion percentage should have stayed where it was, because the guy claims the Bills were willing to accept less efficiency in exchange for the big play.   Of course, Allen's completion percentage went way up last year.  

 

What we heard repeatedly, before last season and throughout the last season, was that Allen was developing the discipline to give up the long shot in favor of the sure shorter ball, and that's what we saw.  That was, in fact, why Beasley exploded last season.   The Bills were throwing the ball short all day long.   

 

Now, it may be true that the Bills HAVE tried forcing Allen into being the perfect cerebral passer, with his game governed by mental discipline and now decided that that's foolish - take advantage of his physical skills, but I don't think that's what happened last season, either.  His rushing attempts didn't go up last season, and the offense wasn't restructured to feature Allen.   I mean, it's true that the success of the Bills depends on Allen's great skills, but we didn't see a change from 2019 to 2020.  

 

All we saw in 2020 was a supremely talented quarterback continuing to learn how to play the position in the NFL, along with the addition of Diggs.   Pass protection was pretty poor, and the run game did very little, but Allen got smarter attacking the whole field.  

 

Having said that, I also agree that the discussion to the approach to the Chiefs game was interesting and rang true.  I'm not a great Xs and Os guy, and I hadn't really paid attention to the significant change in formation weighting.  I noticed that the Bills came out tight, but then I got into the game and failed to notice how much the Bills went to it.

 

Exactly agree.  We can appreciate the analysis of the Chiefs game, which rings true, while understanding that his overall assessment of the Bills 2019 and 2020 offense seems to be that of a guy who actually didn't watch the Bills very much or understand their offense, and doesn't "ring true" in the face of objective metrics like completion percentage (way up in 2020, and not because Allen was better at "Bombs Away!" offense) and YPA (down just slightly between 2019 and 2020).

 

We don't need to toss that gorgeous baby (the KC game and his breakdown of it) along with the slightly scummy, gray bathwater (his rather flawed analysis of how the Bills offense evolved from 2019 to 2020 and why).

 

And in fact I'll go a step further - the Bills offense, including Beasley, exploded last season because Allen just picked teams apart with the intermediate, 10-20 yd pass.  That was the area where Allen improved most between 2018 and 2019, and that was still the team's "bread and butter" last season.  We can see this in Beasley's average YPC (11.8, 63% YBC) and Diggs (12.1, about 70% YBC - and a huge DROP from the 18 ypc in 2019 Minn).  Davis and Brown have significantly higher YPC, but lower # of receptions. 

 

Allen's deep ball was improved, but still not his best asset last season.  He was average to the L and the middle of the field.  And it wasn't there in his first 3 games.  1 of 8 vs Pitts, 2 of 5 vs Mia and WFT on passes beyond 20 yds.  7 of 20 overall.  A factor there was apparent lack of timing with Sanders who missed almost all of training camp.  Brady has said it takes him about a month to build timing with a new WR, and here we are in game 5, I would say the Sanders/Allen timing is ticking right along.  Another factor was playing "run for your life!" against the Steelers pressures.

 

The gap in Allen's game, including last year, was his ability (and/or willingness) to take the checkdown to the short passes behind or just ahead of the LOS - the throw into the blitz to the "hot read" in the territory vacated behind the blitzer.  And many of those he did take, were not completed, especially to his left.  And that's part of what the Steelers did.  They got enough pressure with 4 that the deep passes didn't have time to develop and Allen didn't have just that extra moment to set his feet or get his hips open for a more accurate throw, they blanketed the intermediate stuff with 7 DB, and they said "yeah, we know you're not gonna take the checkdowns".  Eventually, Allen did take them, and we moved the ball

 

A huge sign of progress (to me) is that after the Steelers game, Allen seemed to get it into his gametime DNA "I gotta take those".    And he has.

 

Some charts from NFL Nextgen illustrating my point

2020 passing chart:                                                                        Steelers game showing the missed deep shots and eventual transition to short passing:

 

PS  I think Dawkins has mostly "got his groove back", which matters.