Are Passer Rating and QBR Obsolete?

[Matt_In_NH]

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

 I think you are taking the #6/#14 a little too literal.  If you prefer to rank QB's based on team points scored per game or team points scored per play or something, go for it.  Not sure a lot of people will back that approach.  You say Allen scores points better than anyone, is that true?  I know the Bills are leading in points but what about the number of plays each player has had, compare to at bats in baseball.  There are things out of a QB's control that affects points too, such as their defense, if you have a crappy defense that gives up long time possession drives you might not score as much as a team with a lesser QB who has the best defense.   

Rating and QBR are not perfect and never have been but they are useful, just not the end all.  Those are based on stats.  Stats are affected by many things.   For instance, does QBR take into account that 3 of Allen's 5 games have been impacted by weather?  Even though the Bills are the highest scoring offense does not make them the best offense ( I think you disagree), they are further down in yards which was not true last year.  Do you think Allen's performance has been top 5?  I ask that to a fanatical Bills backer so I will guess the answer is yes.....but compare his performance this year to others around the league and it is reasonable to say others have been better so far.  Of coarse if you just point to the scoreboard there is no argument.  Allen was not good in week 1.  His completion % and yards per attempt are down.

 

It has never been true the team with the highest scoring offense has the highest rated (or top 5) passer, that is an unrealistic assumption.  r

[nedboy7]

Anything that we dont agree with or does not play into our narrative is pure BS. 

 

QBR accounts for opposing defenses: Quarterbacks who face tougher defenses will have their ratings adjusted upward in proportion to the difficulty of their opposition, and those who face weaker defenses will have their ratings adjusted downward.

 

By the end of the season, most starting quarterbacks have faced an evenly balanced set of opponents, so their adjusted and unadjusted QBRs will be very close. But there are exceptions, and those are the interesting cases. For example, in 2015, one reason the Panthers were able to finish the regular season 15-1 was that they faced a disproportionate number of weaker defenses. The difference between Cam Newton's unadjusted raw QBR of 70.3 and his adjusted QBR of 65.1 (retroactively calculated) reflects the relative weakness of his opponents.

Edited October 12, 2021 by nedboy7

[Rochesterfan]

It really depends upon what you are using them for.  It has been repeatedly shown QBR is for the most part can be useless.  There are numerous cases (at least one in this thread) where a guy with obvious worse statistics has just about as good of a QBR.  Therefore - no that doesn’t work.

 

Passer rating has its own faults - such as a guy that throws a ball away under pressure is penalized versus a QB that takes a sack because you get an incompletion if you throw it away.  It also doesn’t factor in things like drops and in Josh’s case this year weather.

 

Yes - overall I would say Josh has not been quite as good as last year, but he has played 2 games in nasty/rainy conditions leading to at least 1 turn over.  He also has played in a game with some whipping wind circling around.  So really out of 5 games - he has had maybe 2 games where the weather was even good.

 

Even with all of that - Josh has been the better QB on the field in all 5 games and has greatly outperformed the guys on the other team and that is the most important thing.

 

Wins are a team stat and Josh is a team player - so I think he is more concerned with that 1 stat than QBR or Rating or anything.

 

 

[BuffBillsForLife]

Total QBR is a made up statistic invented by Trent Dilfer to make game manager QBs (like himself) look good.  They won't even tell people how it's calculated!

[K-9]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

As I’ve been saying for decades, we need to understand the difference between a passer and a quarterback. 

[hondo in seattle]

22 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Stats huh yeah What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, oh hoh,

 

oh Stats huh yeah What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all Stats, huh good God What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, listen to me

 

 

Temptations or Edwin Starr (related to Bart Starr)?

 

 

19 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

2021 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

2021 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

 

He's #1 according to the ELO rankings

 

I find that interesting.  Maybe ELO is better.  

 

QB ratings ought to be predictive.  And they shouldn't be predictive of future QB ratings.  They should have some kind of correlation to scoring because that's the whole point.  Offenses need to score.  Allen's lower QB score isn't predictive of 30+ point games.  Yet that's what the Bills are producing.  

 

The folks rating Allen as average, how do they explain the high point output?  Moss and Singletary?  Our great offensive line?  It doesn't matter if the wideouts are good if the average QB can't get them the ball.  Regardless of Allen's inefficiencies, he's leading the team to the end zone where other QBs are not.  

 

Here's the thing about Josh: he might look ineffective on one drive but then lead the team to TDs on the next two.

 

Another QB may complete a higher percentage of passes but not lead his team to any TDs at all on the same three drives. 

 

Which QB do you want?  Which gives you the better chance of winning?  Which has the better rating?  

 

 

 

[DCOrange]

Passer rating has always been bad but particularly now that QBs do so much that wouldn't show up in passer rating.

 

QBR is probably as good as it gets in terms of trying to put a number on a QB's performance, but QB performance is obviously a very difficult thing to quantify either way.

[34-78-83]

ELO ratings -

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/

 

and LOL, Trubisky is still the 2nd rated in the division

Edited October 12, 2021 by 34-78-83

[GoBills808]

The QB specific metric that most correlates with winning is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

49 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I assume the rating is reflecting Allen's slow start. The offense has been behind the defense, but slowly improving. The rating will catch up.

Bingo.

 

I still think both QBR and passer rating largely tell us who the good QB’s are and they tend to follow the good QBs on good teams still. With the exception of Watson last year, I believe Allen, Rodgers and Mahomes were in the top 3/4 of both QBR and passer rating. And you could definitely argue those were the three best offenses last year.

 

I fully expect Allen to finish in the top 5 of both this year again. But at the same time we are so early in the season and we are seeing amazing QB play from it seems like more QB’s than usual right now.

[GoBills808]

hes ranked 7th for the year thus far

[Albany,n.y.]

I'm always against QB stats.  Here's another one you can toss-Completion %.  It's one of the things the clowns who claim Josh was bad his 1st 2 years cling to.  Well look at this week's games.  Josh completed 57.7% of his passes this week in spite of the fact that he played at an MVP level.  

 

Josh ranked 26th out of 30 QB in completion percentage, behind even Zach Wilson who stunk up London.  Another MVP level performance, that by Justin Herbert ranked 21st this week at 60.47.  Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett, whose Dolphins got smoked in Tampa Bay was 12th at 69.23% while getting intercepted once & sacked 3 times and Mike Glennon, whose Giants got trampled on in Dallas ranked 16th at 64% while throwing 2 picks.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The QB specific metric that most correlates with winning is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A)

Everyone likes to crap on QBR but I don’t really get the hate. Over a large enough sample size QBR is as good as any metric if the goal is to predict the best teams and best QB’s. But remember that no metric is without outliers.

 

Take ANY/A vs QBR from last season.

 

2021 top 5 QBR:

1. Rodgers

2. Mahomes

3. Allen

4. Tannehill

5. Fitzpatrick (only started 7 games and appeared in 2 more)

6. Drew Brees

 

2021 top 5 ANY/A:

1. Rodgers

2. Mahomes

3. Watson

4. Tannehill

5. Allen

 

I would say QBR nailed the top 3 for 2020. Fitzpatrick is the outlier and you figure if he started 15 games instead of 9 he likely would not have kept pace. So the real #5 was probably Brees. 
 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

QBR formula is proprietary and thus garbage

 

passer rating is definitely outdated

 

Yep agree with both. QBR was never any good. Passer rating was but just doesn't much reflect the way the NFL is these days and the way the Quarterback position is played.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

QBR formula is proprietary and thus garbage

 

passer rating is definitely outdated

Just include running stats to the qb rating and that would be a good overall number. 

[34-78-83]

Once there is a rating system that takes into account the offensive scheme being run, the wind/rain, and the ability to make the proper read and throw the ball accordingly on a play by play basis (along with the other usual measures) somebody please let me know... 🙂 I'm thinking there will never be such a thing so it will remain subjective.

[GoBills808]

38 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Everyone likes to crap on QBR but I don’t really get the hate. Over a large enough sample size QBR is as good as any metric if the goal is to predict the best teams and best QB’s. But remember that no metric is without outliers.

 

Take ANY/A vs QBR from last season.

 

2021 top 5 QBR:

1. Rodgers

2. Mahomes

3. Allen

4. Tannehill

5. Fitzpatrick (only started 7 games and appeared in 2 more)

6. Drew Brees

 

2021 top 5 ANY/A:

1. Rodgers

2. Mahomes

3. Watson

4. Tannehill

5. Allen

 

I would say QBR nailed the top 3 for 2020. Fitzpatrick is the outlier and you figure if he started 15 games instead of 9 he likely would not have kept pace. So the real #5 was probably Brees. 
 

 

 

Nobody can tell me how QBR is calculated so I don’t use it. Lots of people do though

 

ANY/A is better than passer rating because it doesn’t count completions twice

[eball]

The official “passer rating” stat is, in my opinion, obsolete.  It rewards statistical categories that taken by themselves can give the impression a QB played well and was instrumental in his team’s performance.  It is often misleading.  And in today’s pass-happy NFL almost every QB can post a gaudy rating.

 

I guess I would say this:  if a QB has a poor traditional rating then he probably sucks, but nobody needs that rating to see it.  If a QB has a very good rating (90+), however, it’s not necessarily indicative of a top-tier QB.

 

I don’t know enough about ESPN’s QBR but at least they are trying to incorporate how a QB’s play really impacts the game.

 

[HappyDays]

The problem is QBR and passer rating are efficiency metrics. They don't care about volume. 5/5 for 80 yards and a TD is not as good a stat line as 35/45 for 390 yards and 3 TDs 1 INT, but the lower volume for the first stat line skews the efficiency.

 

It's hard to create a QB statistic that mixes volume with efficiency. IMO Football Outsiders' DYAR is probably the best because it accounts for game situation and opponent, and gives the total value of the QB rather than the per-play value. In that metric Allen is ranked 13th as a passer and 6th as a rusher this year. He had two mediocre games to start the season and we're only 5 games in. If he continues his current level of play he'll find his way to the top of the statistical rankings.

 

In general QB performance is so hard to rank because it's the most context driven position on the team and we don't know what the QB is asked to do on any given play.

[Boatdrinks]

Not obsolete, but were never perfect to begin with. Just a way of measuring performance. The only stat that matters is wins, especially when the time comes to award the Lombardi. I want my teams QB holding that trophy up, not finishing first in some QB stat.