Are Passer Rating and QBR Obsolete?

[hondo in seattle]

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

[LeGOATski]

I assume the rating is reflecting Allen's slow start. The offense has been behind the defense, but slowly improving. The rating will catch up.

[billybrew1]

19 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

Josh really hasn't passed the eye test in a couple games this year. I think his QBR is about right. Josh's Offense has the #1 drive start in the NFL thanks to the defense (and some to McKenzie) .The Defense is making things awfully easy for Josh.

 

When Josh figures everything out, how teams are playing him now and how to beat that, his QBR will rise to the top. Until then, enjoy Josh @ #6 and the D @ #1.....

Rejoice! Defense has always won championships and it looks like we have a championship defense this year (so far.) 

 

Go Bills!

[QCity]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Allen's slow start. 

 

1 minute ago, billybrew1 said:

Josh really hasn't passed the eye test in a couple games this year.

 

This thread is about to get lively!

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, QCity said:

 

 

This thread is about to get lively!

I will fight everyone in here

[416BillsFan]

Ummmm...

 

[Kangaxx]

QBR is useless. 

[BuffaloBill]

27 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

Yet, purely by the numbers JA is not as good this year as compared to last year. In a weird way, this is a very good thing. The Bill’s fate does not hang entirely on Josh’s howitzer of an arm or his ability to scramble. Josh can play human like and not super human like and this D will take care of the rest. Additionally the Bills ground game is showing signs of life.

 

Keep on enjoying the ride.

[The Wiz]

The reality is if anything QBR is a broken metric that was made up by ESPN to throw their own opinion around.  It's a subjective metric based on how "difficult" a throw is given a particular situation.  

 

I'd say passer rating is more accurate because it is all based on the stats, not "oh well he made a throw to a wide open receiver so it doesn't count as much".  At some point, personal bias has an influence.  Numbers don't lie.  

 

And @416BillsFan just proved my point.

Edited October 12, 2021 by The Wiz

[JoPoy88]

2 minutes ago, 416BillsFan said:

Ummmm...

 

Wow. Yeah this certainly suggests that QBR, at least, is broken.

 

Honestly I don’t pay much attention to either stat. There’s much better advanced stats out there. Problem with both I think is they try to condense overall QB performance into a single value. QB play is too complex to distill into one value. They sacrifice usefulness and accuracy for conciseness.

[GoBills808]

QBR formula is proprietary and thus garbage

 

passer rating is definitely outdated

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

34 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

Stats huh yeah What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, oh hoh,

 

oh Stats huh yeah What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all Stats, huh good God What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, listen to me

 

[Nextmanup]

In all fairness, he's had 2 games out of only 5 with fairly unimpressive personal stats.

 

I'm sure that has something to do with it.

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2021 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

39 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

2021 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

 

He's #1 according to the ELO rankings

[The Wiz]

Here's another example of how QBR is broken.

 

https://larrybrownsports.com/football/aaron-rodgers-chuckled-after-learning-that-tim-tebow-had-higher-qbr/92016

 

Rodgers: 26/39 396 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs; 1 att -1 yard
Tebow: 4/10 79 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs; 6 att 38 yards, 1 TD

 

Rodgers: 82.1

Tebow QBR: 83.2

 

[Big Turk]

39 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I noticed that Allen is currently ranked #6 in QBR and #14 in Passer Rating.

 

I've never been a huge fan of either but now, more than ever, I question how they rank QBs.  Allen is the offensive centerpiece of the highest scoring team in the NFL.  Yet he's not a top five QB?  Maybe not top 10?   Maybe just average?  

 

I get it.  His completion percentage isn't what it should be.  And there's been some really good QB play this year so other guys get ranked higher.  

 

Still, the goal of any QB is top put points on the board.  Allen does that better than anyone. 

 

It's worth mentioning that the Bills don't run a balanced offense.  It's a QB-centric offense.  When we do run, it's either because the D is selling out to stop the pass and/or  to remind the D we actually have RBs who we hand the brick to now and then.  Or we're letting Josh run the ball.  At the beginning and end of the day, this offense is about Josh Allen.

 

And despite being the driving force of the most prolific offense in the NFL this season, the ranking systems don't rate Allen as a top tier QB. 

 

Somehow the rating systems should evaluate how well a QB moves his team down the field and into the end zone (or FG position).   Completion percentage doesn't tell the whole store.  Nor yardage totals.  Nor yards per attempt.  Nor TD  and INT percentages.   

 

If Passer Rating and QBR don't in some way measure points produced by a QB, what good are they?  Because that's what a coach - or fan - really wants to know.  How well does a QB lead his team to paydirt?  Allen is currently the best at that.  And the rating systems should reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This year I feel the defense is creating a lot more opportunities for the offense than last year, as they have the 2nd best defensive DVOA through 5 games of any team since 1983. They are getting tons of turnovers, forcing punts, and getting them great field position.  

 

The offense is scoring a lot, but I wouldn't call them great right now.  They are certainly good, and can score with anyone, but in terms of efficiency and execution, they are still leaving quite a bit out there that can be improved on.  

 

Which is scary.  They are literally curb stomping teams while not even playing at their best.  

[appoo]

12 minutes ago, 416BillsFan said:

Ummmm...

 

 

That's insane

 

(also, if LJ isn't the MVP right now, than I have no idea what that award is even for. Ravens would be possible winless without him and replaced by say Sam Darnold, considering all those injuries

[Jay_Fixit]

QB rating - Nope

QBR - lol. What a terrible stat.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Here's another example of how QBR is broken.

 

https://larrybrownsports.com/football/aaron-rodgers-chuckled-after-learning-that-tim-tebow-had-higher-qbr/92016

 

Rodgers: 26/39 396 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs; 1 att -1 yard
Tebow: 4/10 79 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs; 6 att 38 yards, 1 TD

 

Rodgers: 82.1

Tebow QBR: 83.2

 

is that why Nick Wrong doesn’t know ****

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

is that why Nick Wrong doesn’t know ****

No I honestly just think he's too dumb for his own good.