Scouting The Kansas City Chiefs (Week 5 2021)

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Only three teams in NFL history have ever recorded two shutouts in their first four games of a season. Two of those teams (Washington in 1991 and Baltimore in 2000) went on to win the Super Bowl. The other team? Your 2021 Buffalo Bills. What a performance from the defense on Sunday despite missing some key starters. The offensive line likely played its most complete game as we rushed for 200+ yards (why do kneel downs count in the stats??) and Spencer Brown's promising debut gives me some optimism that the line can figure it out. And even though Josh and Daboll haven't consistently performed to the level we know they can, this team is way more balanced than the 2020 version that lost in the AFC Championship Game and its ceiling seems higher. The pressure isn't all on Josh anymore and everyone is contributing, even the younger guys (great to see Boogie get his first sack as well!). Now it's time to put all of this to the test against Kansas City.

 

Looking ahead, the Bills are heading to Arrowhead to face the hated Kansas City Chiefs. KC has hosted three straight AFC Championship Games, they won the Super Bowl in 2019, and they have an MVP-winning QB with two elite receiving weapons and some blue-chip defensive line talent. The Chiefs are basically just a year ahead of us in their rebuild/window, but they really had our number in 2020. This 2021 version of the Chiefs is different (better offensive line, but worse receiving depth and overall defense) and they sit at 2-2 after close losses to the Ravens and an ascending Chargers team. I think we all feel that Beane had KC in mind with some of his offseason moves and now it's our turn to face Kansas City and see how we stack up and if we've learned the lessons from 2020. More than anything, the Bills need to win this game, just so Josh and the boys know they can do it going forward. 

 

The Chiefs appear to be getting healthy for this game with Chris Jones, Frank Clark, Rashad Fenton, Charvarius Ward, and Willie Gay all potentially back. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into Kansas City's last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2021

 

 

Sunday September 19th- Week 2 Away Loss vs. Baltimore (the Ravens (current record: 3-1) have the 10th ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 2nd ranked special teams) by a score of 36-35:

 

Patrick Mahomes (24/31 for 343 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 3 rushing yards)- Having another MVP-caliber season so far. KC really tailors their scheme to what he does best with a lot of bootlegs, play-action, and chances for him to use his legs to extend plays (although he seems to be running less in 2021). Mahomes made a nice sidearm throw to Mecole Hardman to pick up an early first down. He then threw off balance 35 yards downfield to Demarcus Robinson who beat Marlon Humphries for the TD. I will say that Mahomes still has a tendency to take unnecessary risks (arm arrogance???) such as throwing into tight coverages or throwing off-platform. For example, he sailed an ill-advised pass off his back foot into double coverage that should have been picked. Likewise, his decision-making continues to lapse at times as Mahomes threw the ball up wildly as he was about to be sacked at least twice, eventually throwing an INT in the third quarter. The Chiefs offensive line, which underwent a huge makeover this offseason, was effective despite three first year starters in Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Lucas Niang. Humphrey did have a bad snap in the first half that led to a fumble and an intentional grounding penalty, but Mahomes was mostly kept clean as he got the ball out quickly and wasn't sacked. 

 

Chiefs Running Game- After being really impressed with his career at LSU, I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (46 yards and 3.5 YPC) has been a good, not great RB so far in his young career. He's got the balance and toughness, getting the yards available behind a strong o-line, but he's just not very dynamic. He also lost a fumble on KC's final drive. Darrel Williams is their power back and scored a TD, but wound up with -2 yards on 3 carries. A poor performance overall.

 

Tyreek Hill (3 catches for 14 yards)- I'll say the same thing I said last year: my goal here is to provide unbiased analysis without any preconceived thoughts about what a player has done in the past, but Hill is my least favorite player in the NFL and he's so lucky he was given the gift of speed or else he'd be out of the league IMO for his actions off the field. Can't think of anyone that's more difficult to root for. KC has a history of allowing these players with character flags into their locker room (Kareem Hunt, Frank Clark, etc) and I hope it comes back to bite them one day. I recognize his talent on a football field and that he's an elite playmaker, but I hate this dude and it pisses me off when he scores/celebrates etc. Anyways, back to the regularly scheduled programming...Baltimore clearly made it a point to keep a lid on Hill and he had a quiet game.

 

Mecole Hardman (5 catches for 55 yards)- Getting a significant increase in his snaps and touches this season. KC likes to use him on jet sweeps and quick slants with his speed. Very dangerous in space, but still learning the WR position and his route running needs work.

 

Demarcus Robinson (3 catches for 46 yards and 1 TD)- Beat Humphries in man coverage (which doesn't happen too often) on a double move for a deep TD. Inefficient on his other targets.

 

Travis Kelce (7 catches for 109 yards and 1 TD)- Their clear #1 weapon in my view and the key to stopping/limiting this offense. Again, it's the simple but intelligent scheme KC runs to get him the ball and into space. Kelce executed a nice flat route with two wideouts blocking for him upfield and gained 10+ YAC. Later caught a short pass at the 45 yard line and powered his way through multiple defenders for a huge TD.

 

Chiefs Run Defense- The Ravens present possibly the toughest and most unique test in the NFL for any run defense and the Chiefs didn't really have the answer especially on runs towards the left side of their defensive line, so much so that the commentators brought it up several times. Ty Williams (77 yards and 5.9 YPC), Latavius Murray (36 yards, 4.0 YPC, and 1 TD) and Devonta Freeman (29 yards on 2 carries) each had multiple 10+ yard gains mostly by bouncing runs outside the tackles. Murray broke several tackle attempts on a game-tying TD run in the second quarter. The KC defensive line (a healthier version than we should see on Sunday mind you) did a nice job of compressing the pocket early on to limit Jackson's ability to run, but the Ravens adjusted and Jackson broke loose more often later in the game. Lamar wound up scoring two decisive TDs running untouched into the end zone, again towards the left side of the defensive line. KC missed a ton of tackles throughout as the Ravens gobbled up yards after contact. 

 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Like most teams, Kansas City struggled to handle the dual threat of Lamar Jackson (18/26 for 239 yards, 1 passing TD, and 2 INT with 107 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs). The secondary struggled to deal with the speed of Hollywood Brown (113 yards and 1 TD) throughout the game. KC's LBs and DBs seemed to be giving a bit more cushion and playing less physically than we saw in 2020. This was especially true with Brown and Mark Andrews; I felt like every time they caught a ball on tape, they had five yards or more to run before first contact. Baltimore was able to sustain a lot of drives this way. The low point for KC was leaving Brown wide open on a busted coverage for a 42 yard TD catch-and-run. However, KC did well defending a pair of late two point conversion attempts in the final quarter. It appeared that Jarran Reed tipped Lamar Jackson's pass on their first drive which resulted in a pick-six for Tyrann Mathieu and a 7-0 KC lead less than one minute into the game. Mathieu later easily picked off a second pass that Jackson floated deep into the end zone into triple coverage. Kansas City only sacked Jackson once as Chris Jones (who they have moved to 5T/DE) and Frank Clark were almost invisible.

 

Miscellaneous- The Chiefs led throughout the game until Lamar's running ability brought the Ravens ahead (KC gave up 251 rushing yards and allowed 31 first downs!). It's worth noting that Baltimore made a really aggressive call going for it on fourth-and-one ahead by one point from their own 43 yard line and over a minute left in the game. Not many head coaches in this league make that call and it likely won the Ravens this game as Jackson executed a QB sneak for the first down. Kansas City averaged 8.3 yards per play (they went 1/6 on third down) and committed 5 penalties for 46 yards. 

 

Sunday September 26th- Week 3 Home Loss vs. Los Angeles (the Chargers (current record: 3-1) have the 11th ranked offense, 9th ranked defense, and 31st ranked special teams) by a score of 30-24:

 

Patrick Mahomes (27/44 for 260 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 2 INT with 45 rushing yards)- started this game having to use his legs a lot, escaping and scrambling for first downs. Got the ball out quickly and didn't push the ball downfield much at all. No many highlight-worthy plays which is unusual for this offense. Mahomes overcooked a pass over the middle that was behind Marcus Kemp resulting in a tip drill INT on the Chiefs first drive. Was sacked on an early RPO to the left by Kyzir White and Joey Bosa got the best of Trey Smith for a sack in the second quarter. On the most significant play of the game, Mahomes bought time with his legs, rolled right, and threw over the middle, sailing the ball over Kelce straight to Alohi Gilman who made the interception. The offensive line was slightly less steady this week, allowing two sacks and a few additional pressures that resulted in the turnovers.

 

Chiefs Running Game- Quietly efficient in this contest, one of the better games of Edwards-Helaire's career (100 yards and 5.9 YPC as well as 9 receiving yards and 1 TD). Helped to keep the chains moving and get KC back into the game. However, CEH lost a killer fumble for the second straight week. He did squeeze under a defensive lineman and escape for a nice first down in the second half and later scored a TD on a well-blocked screen pass. Williams (28 yards and 4.0 YPC) wasn't much of a factor.

 

Tyreek Hill (5 catches for 56 yards)- KC tried to emphasize Hill from the get go, manufacturing touches for him near the LoS. Took a jet sweep for a first down beating everyone up the sideline. Hill lost a fumble after catching the ball on a shallow crosser on the Chiefs second drive and had another below average day by his standards.

 

Mecole Hardman (3 catches for 33 yards and 1 TD)- Broke three tackles on one jet sweep with his speed and agility and took another for a go-ahead fourth quarter TD. 

 

Travis Kelce (7 catches for 104 yards)- Made an excellent contested catch on a quick slant on third down, shaking off his tackler and gaining an extra 10 YAC. On KC's final drive before HT, Kelce high-pointed a ball over a CB to set up a Chiefs FG. You could see Mahomes looking his way whenever he was in trouble.

 

Chiefs Run Defense- Wasn't forced into action much as Los Angeles went pass-heavy against the struggling KC secondary. Austin Ekeler (55 yards and 5.0 YPC) was efficient on his limited carries.

 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Didn't do a good job of affecting Justin Herbert (26/38 for 281 yards, 4 passing TDs, and 0 INT with 16 rushing yards) and making him feel uncomfortable even in the hostile confines of Arrowhead. KC did a better job of limiting the tight ends and their coverage between the hashmarks overall than in the previous week, but they left Keenan Allen wide open in the end zone for LAC's first score and did the same for a Mike Williams (7 catches for 122 and 2 TDs) score in the fourth quarter. L'Jarius Sneed got stiff-armed by Mike Williams for a 25 yard catch-and-run before Anthony Hitchens lost Austin Ekeler who walked in for a TD on a short pass. On the positive side, Anthony Sorensen recovered well and made a crucial pass break up on a deep ball to Jalen Guyton who was initially left open in the end zone, a rare Herbert underthrow. Mike Hughes (this season's Bashaud Breeland replacement) broke on a slant route by Williams and made a key PBU as well. The KC secondary got justifiably flagged on a couple key pass interference calls late as they were more handsy with the physical LAC wide receivers. Mike Danna brought down Herbert on a second-half coverage sack (their only sack of the game), but the Chiefs otherwise struggled to put pressure on Herbert who had a lot of time to throw despite a blitz-heavy approach by the defense. 

 

Miscellaneous- Kansas City committed a turnover on each of their first three drives, ultimately putting them in a 14-0 hole. Justin Herbert is an outstanding young player, but he had a weird play early where he seemed like he lost where he was on the field and slid/gave himself up well short of the first down marker that killed a Chargers drive. This contest was back and forth the entire second half with multiple lead changes as the KC offense finally got going, but the KC defense just couldn't get off the field. KC averaged 5.8 yards per play and committed 6 penalties for 56 yards. 

 

Sunday October 3rd- Week 4 Away Win vs. Philadelphia (the Eagles (current record: 1-3) have the 16th ranked offense, 24th ranked defense, and 8th ranked special teams) by a score of 42-30:

 

Patrick Mahomes (24/30 for 278 yards, 5 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 26 rushing yards)- Led KC to their best offensive performance of the young season. Executed the underhand throw to CEH for the goal-line TD we've all seen 100 times by now and another patented shovel-pass to the tight end for a TD play they love so much. Threw a beautiful deep ball to Hill down the right sideline to set up a short TD on the next play. Probably didn't need the help, but took advantage of a bad Eagles defense that misses a lot of tackles and commits a lot of penalties. Mahomes again tried to avoid taking a sack, throwing the ball up for grabs down the middle instead and was picked off. The offensive line gave up a sack with interior pressure on the first play of the second half, but otherwise won the LoS and kept Mahomes clean.

 

Chiefs Running Game- The Chiefs had success running the ball straight up the gut on draws and RPOs. There was a more even split than usual between CEH (102 yards and 7.3 YPC) and Darrel Williams (42 yards, 4.2 YPC, and 1 TD) who also powered in for a goal-line TD. 

 

Tyreek Hill (11 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs)- Finally had his epic breakout game. Caught a lovely deep pass and tapped both feet inbounds early in the contest and then ended the game by catching another deep ball for a TD on a busted coverage. Took a jet sweep for another TD.

 

Mecole Hardman (2 catches for 16 yards)- not much of a factor.

 

Travis Kelce (4 catches for 23 yards)- It was Hill's game to go wild as Kelce was limited by the Eagles. 

 

Chiefs Run Defense- Allowed 103 rushing yards on only 19 carries. Lost contain on Hurts multiple times and gave up some big runs by Gainwell.

 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Jalen Hurts (32/48 for 387 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 0 INT with 47 rushing yards) had some shaky moments in the pocket, but had a strong game overall. Almost-Buffalo Bill Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 116 yards and 1 TD and KC couldn't find the right match up in coverage with Goedert beating Hughes on a corner route for Philly's first score. Hurts actually missed a wide open Ertz in the end zone who had beaten his man up the seam, settling for a FG instead. Philly's two rookies Devonta Smith (7 catches for 122 yards) and Kenneth Gainwell (6 catches/58 yards for one of my draft crushes) were able to find a lot of space and gain YAC consistently as well. Sneed came loose on a corner blitz and forced Hurts to fumble, but Philly recovered. Mike Danna racked up two more sacks filling in for Frank Clark.

 

Miscellaneous- KC only had a 28-23 lead with nine minutes remaining before pulling away. The Eagles ran up-tempo for much of the game and the Chiefs had a hard time getting subs in and getting set up, something to consider for Sunday. KC also seems to have gradually faded Juan Thornhill out of its defense which is strange since he's been a good young player for them, hard to know what the thinking is there. Kansas City averaged 7.5 yards per play and committed 7 penalties for 46 yards. 

 

Sunday October 10th Preview- Week 5 Kansas City (current record: 2-2, the Chiefs have the 1st ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense, and 6th ranked special teams) vs Buffalo (current record: 3-1, the Bills have the 17th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 12th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- When facing KC, it would be normal to think we need to throw the ball 50 times and score 40+ points to keep up with Mahomes and Co., but the teams who have beaten the Chiefs have done it by running the ball well and often, keeping the KC offense on the sideline and tiring out the KC defense. Along with our potentially improved pass rush and the play of Dawson Knox, our ability to run effectively this season might be the biggest factor/difference in finally matching up with and beating Kansas City. The Chiefs defensive line has underachieved (I wonder why they have messed around with Chris Jones' position) and they are the second-worst run defense in the NFL so far. I think we kept the game plan pretty vanilla last week against Houston and also sprinkled in some 21 personnel/heavier formations to keep the Chiefs guessing. Kansas City's linebacking corps has looked very suspect and unathletic on film, but they may activate Willie Gay off the IR this week who is more dynamic than their other guys. Diggs should have an advantage against any DB the Chiefs put on him and I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder after the AFCG loss last year and how hard he took it. I also expect Knox, Beasley, and Sanders to feast on crossers and seam routes over the middle. Our passing offense looks to have a big advantage on paper, but I felt that way last season too and so I'm very interested to see how the game is called by the refs as we struggled to adapt to KC's aggression and physicality previously. It might also be a good week to bring back some of the pre-snap motion and jet sweeps to test the edges and sideline-to-sideline range of this defense. Lastly, we need to stay on schedule, take the easy yards, and just play our game/brand of offense, all things we haven't stuck to versus KC in the past. 

 

Bills On Defense- First off, there's a lot of talk about how the Bills haven't played any good QBs yet and that's probably right. At the same time, this Bills defense has the third-best DVOA ever recorded in the first four games of a season which takes opponents and several other factors into account so I believe both statements can be true. The Bills haven't faced an above average QB or offense yet while also playing at an extremely impressive, record-setting level that should represent an improvement over our 2020 defense.

 

For this week, the key to stopping KC is to get pressure on Mahomes with four rushers (no blitzing) and do your best to take away Kelce and Hill in that order. As some other posters have said in the gameday thread, our best bet is likely Milano (if healthy) or Tre White on Kelce with double coverage from Levi Wallace (our best tackling CB) and a safety bracketing Hill wherever he goes. Hill and Kelce make up the vast majority of the targets in the Chiefs' passing game so we need to try to force their secondary players to step up. Mahomes is getting the ball out quicker this season, funneling the ball to Kelce and Hill (his first reads), but his stats really drop off a cliff when he's forced to hold onto the ball longer/go through his progressions and especially when he is pressured (again both changes from the last couple seasons where his splits weren't nearly as bad). Lastly, as always but especially this week, it's important that we get our hands up and disrupt passing lanes, tackle well, and limit YAC as much as possible.

 

On Special Teams- Harrison Butker is one of the better kickers in the NFL and has been very consistent again this season. Tommy Townsend is a solid young punter in his second season. Byron Pringle is getting his first chance to return kicks this season and Mecole Hardman is their punt returner, we know what they both can do in the open field. Keep those touchbacks and fair catches coming!

 

I'll end with something completely unrelated to the game on Sunday Night Football which will possibly provide some hope to others who lose sleep at night wondering what it will take to beat KC and how long this freakin' Mahomes guy will be this good for: 

 

Looking ahead to 2022 (per Spotrac), Kansas City only has 26 players under contract and approx. $32 million in cap space with several key starters like Tyrann Mathieu (who makes $14+ million per year), Orlando Brown Jr (who has leverage since they just traded for him and should account for at least half of that cap space if re-signed), Jarran Reed, Charvarius Ward, Daniel Sorensen, Demarcus Robinson, and Derrick Nnadi hitting the market. In addition, the Chiefs have three players making over $25 million and five players who will be making more than the Bills highest paid player in 2022. Conversely, the Bills have 37 players under contract for 2022 and just over $20 million in cap space with nearly all of our key starters locked up besides Taron Johnson, Isaiah McKenzie, Jerry Hughes, and a couple others. The cap will likely go up by a decent amount, but my point is that it appears that we have an opportunity next year to gain even more ground on the Chiefs and that our roster construction by comparison appears to be a bit healthier to this point even when Allen's contract really increases. 

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

 

[gdabillsfan]

Nice job. I enjoy your analysis every week

[muppy]

following. Great job!

[78thealltimegreat]

Take the ball and ram it behind Spencer Brown Chiefs can’t stop the run to save their lives very very winnable game here…take care of the ball…limit penalties…hit a big play or two…I think we clock these guys heck Jalen Hurtd lit them up like a Christmas tree 

[Mr. WEO]

 "What a performance from the defense on Sunday despite missing some key starters."

 

Deshaun Watson?  

[billybrew1]

2 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Only three teams in NFL history have ever recorded two shutouts in their first four games of a season. Two of those teams (Washington in 1991 and Baltimore in 2000) went on to win the Super Bowl. The other team? Your 2021 Buffalo Bills. What a performance from the defense on Sunday despite missing some key starters. The offensive line likely played its most complete game as we rushed for 200+ yards (why do kneel downs count in the stats??) and Spencer Brown's promising debut gives me some optimism that the line can figure it out. And even though Josh and Daboll haven't consistently performed to the level we know they can, this team is way more balanced than the 2020 version that lost in the AFC Championship Game and its ceiling seems higher. The pressure isn't all on Josh anymore and everyone is contributing, even the younger guys (great to see Boogie get his first sack as well!). Now it's time to put all of this to the test against Kansas City.

 

Looking ahead, the Bills are heading to Arrowhead to face the hated Kansas City Chiefs. KC has hosted three straight AFC Championship Games, they won the Super Bowl in 2019, and they have an MVP-winning QB with two elite receiving weapons and some blue-chip defensive line talent. The Chiefs are basically just a year ahead of us in their rebuild/window, but they really had our number in 2020. This 2021 version of the Chiefs is different (better offensive line, but worse receiving depth and overall defense) and they sit at 2-2 after close losses to the Ravens and an ascending Chargers team. I think we all feel that Beane had KC in mind with some of his offseason moves and now it's our turn to face Kansas City and see how we stack up and if we've learned the lessons from 2020. More than anything, the Bills need to win this game, just so Josh and the boys know they can do it going forward. 

 

The Chiefs appear to be getting healthy for this game with Chris Jones, Frank Clark, Rashad Fenton, Charvarius Ward, and Willie Gay all potentially back. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into Kansas City's last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2021

 

 

Sunday September 19th- Week 2 Away Loss vs. Baltimore (the Ravens (current record: 3-1) have the 10th ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 2nd ranked special teams) by a score of 36-35:

 

Patrick Mahomes (24/31 for 343 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 3 rushing yards)- Having another MVP-caliber season so far. KC really tailors their scheme to what he does best with a lot of bootlegs, play-action, and chances for him to use his legs to extend plays (although he seems to be running less in 2021). Mahomes made a nice sidearm throw to Mecole Hardman to pick up an early first down. He then threw off balance 35 yards downfield to Demarcus Robinson who beat Marlon Humphries for the TD. I will say that Mahomes still has a tendency to take unnecessary risks (arm arrogance???) such as throwing into tight coverages or throwing off-platform. For example, he sailed an ill-advised pass off his back foot into double coverage that should have been picked. Likewise, his decision-making continues to lapse at times as Mahomes threw the ball up wildly as he was about to be sacked at least twice, eventually throwing an INT in the third quarter. The Chiefs offensive line, which underwent a huge makeover this offseason, was effective despite three first year starters in Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Lucas Niang. Humphrey did have a bad snap in the first half that led to a fumble and an intentional grounding penalty, but Mahomes was mostly kept clean as he got the ball out quickly and wasn't sacked. 

 

Chiefs Running Game- After being really impressed with his career at LSU, I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (46 yards and 3.5 YPC) has been a good, not great RB so far in his young career. He's got the balance and toughness, getting the yards available behind a strong o-line, but he's just not very dynamic. He also lost a fumble on KC's final drive. Darrel Williams is their power back and scored a TD, but wound up with -2 yards on 3 carries. A poor performance overall.

 

Tyreek Hill (3 catches for 14 yards)- I'll say the same thing I said last year: my goal here is to provide unbiased analysis without any preconceived thoughts about what a player has done in the past, but Hill is my least favorite player in the NFL and he's so lucky he was given the gift of speed or else he'd be out of the league IMO for his actions off the field. Can't think of anyone that's more difficult to root for. KC has a history of allowing these players with character flags into their locker room (Kareem Hunt, Frank Clark, etc) and I hope it comes back to bite them one day. I recognize his talent on a football field and that he's an elite playmaker, but I hate this dude and it pisses me off when he scores/celebrates etc. Anyways, back to the regularly scheduled programming...Baltimore clearly made it a point to keep a lid on Hill and he had a quiet game.

 

Mecole Hardman (5 catches for 55 yards)- Getting a significant increase in his snaps and touches this season. KC likes to use him on jet sweeps and quick slants with his speed. Very dangerous in space, but still learning the WR position and his route running needs work.

 

Demarcus Robinson (3 catches for 46 yards and 1 TD)- Beat Humphries in man coverage (which doesn't happen too often) on a double move for a deep TD. Inefficient on his other targets.

 

Travis Kelce (7 catches for 109 yards and 1 TD)- Their clear #1 weapon in my view and the key to stopping/limiting this offense. Again, it's the simple but intelligent scheme KC runs to get him the ball and into space. Kelce executed a nice flat route with two wideouts blocking for him upfield and gained 10+ YAC. Later caught a short pass at the 45 yard line and powered his way through multiple defenders for a huge TD.

 

Chiefs Run Defense- The Ravens present possibly the toughest and most unique test in the NFL for any run defense and the Chiefs didn't really have the answer especially on runs towards the left side of their defensive line, so much so that the commentators brought it up several times. Ty Williams (77 yards and 5.9 YPC), Latavius Murray (36 yards, 4.0 YPC, and 1 TD) and Devonta Freeman (29 yards on 2 carries) each had multiple 10+ yard gains mostly by bouncing runs outside the tackles. Murray broke several tackle attempts on a game-tying TD run in the second quarter. The KC defensive line (a healthier version than we should see on Sunday mind you) did a nice job of compressing the pocket early on to limit Jackson's ability to run, but the Ravens adjusted and Jackson broke loose more often later in the game. Lamar wound up scoring two decisive TDs running untouched into the end zone, again towards the left side of the defensive line. KC missed a ton of tackles throughout as the Ravens gobbled up yards after contact. 

 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Like most teams, Kansas City struggled to handle the dual threat of Lamar Jackson (18/26 for 239 yards, 1 passing TD, and 2 INT with 107 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs). The secondary struggled to deal with the speed of Hollywood Brown (113 yards and 1 TD) throughout the game. KC's LBs and DBs seemed to be giving a bit more cushion and playing less physically than we saw in 2020. This was especially true with Brown and Mark Andrews; I felt like every time they caught a ball on tape, they had five yards or more to run before first contact. Baltimore was able to sustain a lot of drives this way. The low point for KC was leaving Brown wide open on a busted coverage for a 42 yard TD catch-and-run. However, KC did well defending a pair of late two point conversion attempts in the final quarter. It appeared that Jarran Reed tipped Lamar Jackson's pass on their first drive which resulted in a pick-six for Tyrann Mathieu and a 7-0 KC lead less than one minute into the game. Mathieu later easily picked off a second pass that Jackson floated deep into the end zone into triple coverage. Kansas City only sacked Jackson once as Chris Jones (who they have moved to 5T/DE) and Frank Clark were almost invisible.

 

Miscellaneous- The Chiefs led throughout the game until Lamar's running ability brought the Ravens ahead (KC gave up 251 rushing yards and allowed 31 first downs!). It's worth noting that Baltimore made a really aggressive call going for it on fourth-and-one ahead by one point from their own 43 yard line and over a minute left in the game. Not many head coaches in this league make that call and it likely won the Ravens this game as Jackson executed a QB sneak for the first down. Kansas City averaged 8.3 yards per play (they went 1/6 on third down) and committed 5 penalties for 46 yards. 

 

Sunday September 26th- Week 3 Home Loss vs. Los Angeles (the Chargers (current record: 3-1) have the 11th ranked offense, 9th ranked defense, and 31st ranked special teams) by a score of 30-24:

 

Patrick Mahomes (27/44 for 260 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 2 INT with 45 rushing yards)- started this game having to use his legs a lot, escaping and scrambling for first downs. Got the ball out quickly and didn't push the ball downfield much at all. No many highlight-worthy plays which is unusual for this offense. Mahomes overcooked a pass over the middle that was behind Marcus Kemp resulting in a tip drill INT on the Chiefs first drive. Was sacked on an early RPO to the left by Kyzir White and Joey Bosa got the best of Trey Smith for a sack in the second quarter. On the most significant play of the game, Mahomes bought time with his legs, rolled right, and threw over the middle, sailing the ball over Kelce straight to Alohi Gilman who made the interception. The offensive line was slightly less steady this week, allowing two sacks and a few additional pressures that resulted in the turnovers.

 

Chiefs Running Game- Quietly efficient in this contest, one of the better games of Edwards-Helaire's career (100 yards and 5.9 YPC as well as 9 receiving yards and 1 TD). Helped to keep the chains moving and get KC back into the game. However, CEH lost a killer fumble for the second straight week. He did squeeze under a defensive lineman and escape for a nice first down in the second half and later scored a TD on a well-blocked screen pass. Williams (28 yards and 4.0 YPC) wasn't much of a factor.

 

Tyreek Hill (5 catches for 56 yards)- KC tried to emphasize Hill from the get go, manufacturing touches for him near the LoS. Took a jet sweep for a first down beating everyone up the sideline. Hill lost a fumble after catching the ball on a shallow crosser on the Chiefs second drive and had another below average day by his standards.

 

Mecole Hardman (3 catches for 33 yards and 1 TD)- Broke three tackles on one jet sweep with his speed and agility and took another for a go-ahead fourth quarter TD. 

 

Travis Kelce (7 catches for 104 yards)- Made an excellent contested catch on a quick slant on third down, shaking off his tackler and gaining an extra 10 YAC. On KC's final drive before HT, Kelce high-pointed a ball over a CB to set up a Chiefs FG. You could see Mahomes looking his way whenever he was in trouble.

 

Chiefs Run Defense- Wasn't forced into action much as Los Angeles went pass-heavy against the struggling KC secondary. Austin Ekeler (55 yards and 5.0 YPC) was efficient on his limited carries.

 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Didn't do a good job of affecting Justin Herbert (26/38 for 281 yards, 4 passing TDs, and 0 INT with 16 rushing yards) and making him feel uncomfortable even in the hostile confines of Arrowhead. KC did a better job of limiting the tight ends and their coverage between the hashmarks overall than in the previous week, but they left Keenan Allen wide open in the end zone for LAC's first score and did the same for a Mike Williams (7 catches for 122 and 2 TDs) score in the fourth quarter. L'Jarius Sneed got stiff-armed by Mike Williams for a 25 yard catch-and-run before Anthony Hitchens lost Austin Ekeler who walked in for a TD on a short pass. On the positive side, Anthony Sorensen recovered well and made a crucial pass break up on a deep ball to Jalen Guyton who was initially left open in the end zone, a rare Herbert underthrow. Mike Hughes (this season's Bashaud Breeland replacement) broke on a slant route by Williams and made a key PBU as well. The KC secondary got justifiably flagged on a couple key pass interference calls late as they were more handsy with the physical LAC wide receivers. Mike Danna brought down Herbert on a second-half coverage sack (their only sack of the game), but the Chiefs otherwise struggled to put pressure on Herbert who had a lot of time to throw despite a blitz-heavy approach by the defense. 

 

Miscellaneous- Kansas City committed a turnover on each of their first three drives, ultimately putting them in a 14-0 hole. Justin Herbert is an outstanding young player, but he had a weird play early where he seemed like he lost where he was on the field and slid/gave himself up well short of the first down marker that killed a Chargers drive. This contest was back and forth the entire second half with multiple lead changes as the KC offense finally got going, but the KC defense just couldn't get off the field. KC averaged 5.8 yards per play and committed 6 penalties for 56 yards. 

 

Sunday October 3rd- Week 4 Away Win vs. Philadelphia (the Eagles (current record: 1-3) have the 16th ranked offense, 24th ranked defense, and 8th ranked special teams) by a score of 42-30:

 

Patrick Mahomes (24/30 for 278 yards, 5 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 26 rushing yards)- Led KC to their best offensive performance of the young season. Executed the underhand throw to CEH for the goal-line TD we've all seen 100 times by now and another patented shovel-pass to the tight end for a TD play they love so much. Threw a beautiful deep ball to Hill down the right sideline to set up a short TD on the next play. Probably didn't need the help, but took advantage of a bad Eagles defense that misses a lot of tackles and commits a lot of penalties. Mahomes again tried to avoid taking a sack, throwing the ball up for grabs down the middle instead and was picked off. The offensive line gave up a sack with interior pressure on the first play of the second half, but otherwise won the LoS and kept Mahomes clean.

 

Chiefs Running Game- The Chiefs had success running the ball straight up the gut on draws and RPOs. There was a more even split than usual between CEH (102 yards and 7.3 YPC) and Darrel Williams (42 yards, 4.2 YPC, and 1 TD) who also powered in for a goal-line TD. 

 

Tyreek Hill (11 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs)- Finally had his epic breakout game. Caught a lovely deep pass and tapped both feet inbounds early in the contest and then ended the game by catching another deep ball for a TD on a busted coverage. Took a jet sweep for another TD.

 

Mecole Hardman (2 catches for 16 yards)- not much of a factor.

 

Travis Kelce (4 catches for 23 yards)- It was Hill's game to go wild as Kelce was limited by the Eagles. 

 

Chiefs Run Defense- Allowed 103 rushing yards on only 19 carries. Lost contain on Hurts multiple times and gave up some big runs by Gainwell.

 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Jalen Hurts (32/48 for 387 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 0 INT with 47 rushing yards) had some shaky moments in the pocket, but had a strong game overall. Almost-Buffalo Bill Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 116 yards and 1 TD and KC couldn't find the right match up in coverage with Goedert beating Hughes on a corner route for Philly's first score. Hurts actually missed a wide open Ertz in the end zone who had beaten his man up the seam, settling for a FG instead. Philly's two rookies Devonta Smith (7 catches for 122 yards) and Kenneth Gainwell (6 catches/58 yards for one of my draft crushes) were able to find a lot of space and gain YAC consistently as well. Sneed came loose on a corner blitz and forced Hurts to fumble, but Philly recovered. Mike Danna racked up two more sacks filling in for Frank Clark.

 

Miscellaneous- KC only had a 28-23 lead with nine minutes remaining before pulling away. The Eagles ran up-tempo for much of the game and the Chiefs had a hard time getting subs in and getting set up, something to consider for Sunday. KC also seems to have gradually faded Juan Thornhill out of its defense which is strange since he's been a good young player for them, hard to know what the thinking is there. Kansas City averaged 7.5 yards per play and committed 7 penalties for 46 yards. 

 

Sunday October 10th Preview- Week 5 Kansas City (current record: 2-2, the Chiefs have the 1st ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense, and 6th ranked special teams) vs Buffalo (current record: 3-1, the Bills have the 17th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 12th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- When facing KC, it would be normal to think we need to throw the ball 50 times and score 40+ points to keep up with Mahomes and Co., but the teams who have beaten the Chiefs have done it by running the ball well and often, keeping the KC offense on the sideline and tiring out the KC defense. Along with our potentially improved pass rush and the play of Dawson Knox, our ability to run effectively this season might be the biggest factor/difference in finally matching up with and beating Kansas City. The Chiefs defensive line has underachieved (I wonder why they have messed around with Chris Jones' position) and they are the second-worst run defense in the NFL so far. I think we kept the game plan pretty vanilla last week against Houston and also sprinkled in some 21 personnel/heavier formations to keep the Chiefs guessing. Kansas City's linebacking corps has looked very suspect and unathletic on film, but they may activate Willie Gay off the IR this week who is more dynamic than their other guys. Diggs should have an advantage against any DB the Chiefs put on him and I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder after the AFCG loss last year and how hard he took it. I also expect Knox, Beasley, and Sanders to feast on crossers and seam routes over the middle. Our passing offense looks to have a big advantage on paper, but I felt that way last season too and so I'm very interested to see how the game is called by the refs as we struggled to adapt to KC's aggression and physicality previously. It might also be a good week to bring back some of the pre-snap motion and jet sweeps to test the edges and sideline-to-sideline range of this defense. Lastly, we need to stay on schedule, take the easy yards, and just play our game/brand of offense, all things we haven't stuck to versus KC in the past. 

 

Bills On Defense- First off, there's a lot of talk about how the Bills haven't played any good QBs yet and that's probably right. At the same time, this Bills defense has the third-best DVOA ever recorded in the first four games of a season which takes opponents and several other factors into account so I believe both statements can be true. The Bills haven't faced an above average QB or offense yet while also playing at an extremely impressive, record-setting level that should represent an improvement over our 2020 defense.

 

For this week, the key to stopping KC is to get pressure on Mahomes with four rushers (no blitzing) and do your best to take away Kelce and Hill in that order. As some other posters have said in the gameday thread, our best bet is likely Milano (if healthy) or Tre White on Kelce with double coverage from Levi Wallace (our best tackling CB) and a safety bracketing Hill wherever he goes. Hill and Kelce make up the vast majority of the targets in the Chiefs' passing game so we need to try to force their secondary players to step up. Mahomes is getting the ball out quicker this season, funneling the ball to Kelce and Hill (his first reads), but his stats really drop off a cliff when he's forced to hold onto the ball longer/go through his progressions and especially when he is pressured (again both changes from the last couple seasons where his splits weren't nearly as bad). Lastly, as always but especially this week, it's important that we get our hands up and disrupt passing lanes, tackle well, and limit YAC as much as possible.

 

On Special Teams- Harrison Butker is one of the better kickers in the NFL and has been very consistent again this season. Tommy Townsend is a solid young punter in his second season. Byron Pringle is getting his first chance to return kicks this season and Mecole Hardman is their punt returner, we know what they both can do in the open field. Keep those touchbacks and fair catches coming!

 

I'll end with something completely unrelated to the game on Sunday Night Football which will possibly provide some hope to others who lose sleep at night wondering what it will take to beat KC and how long this freakin' Mahomes guy will be this good for: 

 

Looking ahead to 2022 (per Spotrac), Kansas City only has 26 players under contract and approx. $32 million in cap space with several key starters like Tyrann Mathieu (who makes $14+ million per year), Orlando Brown Jr (who has leverage since they just traded for him and should account for at least half of that cap space if re-signed), Jarran Reed, Charvarius Ward, Daniel Sorensen, Demarcus Robinson, and Derrick Nnadi hitting the market. In addition, the Chiefs have three players making over $25 million and five players who will be making more than the Bills highest paid player in 2022. Conversely, the Bills have 37 players under contract for 2022 and just over $20 million in cap space with nearly all of our key starters locked up besides Taron Johnson, Isaiah McKenzie, Jerry Hughes, and a couple others. The cap will likely go up by a decent amount, but my point is that it appears that we have an opportunity next year to gain even more ground on the Chiefs and that our roster construction by comparison appears to be a bit healthier to this point even when Allen's contract really increases. 

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

 

Just loved the read as it gets me even more pumped for this weekend.while everything you said seems true and logical to me I think you can sum up who will win the game with one sentence....

If Josh Allen plays at his best like we know he can, we win. Or, if Josh Allen gets an A we win.

I think we win with an A- Maybe even a B+......

Anything lower and it's 3-2 and tied with the chefs.....

We can really bury the chefs with a win here. That would be three AFC losses for the chefs, a sub- .500 record and a monster schedule coming up. I think a loss here buries the chefs for home-field advantage for sure, maybe even more.

So, as bad as the Bills and their fans want this game, the chefs want it more.

I think that is interesting.

Can the Bills man-up vs. the chefs and best them at arrowhead looking Superin the process?

The chefs are not going to hold back anything.

Will the Bills?

I don't know?

I don't think so.

I think we're in being our best in January mode.... Maybe not. Maybe McD sees the importance of defeating his nemesis?

For himself, for Allen, for his franchise, for his fans.

 

Go Bills!

[ganesh]

This game makes me nervous.  we have won big against a bunch of nobody and also lost a bad game to a struggling and aging QB.   The Chiefs present us a completely different team and we have to play SMART.   We have to covert the FGs to TD if we have to go toe to toe with Mahomes.  I hope the coaching staff prepares this team for this challenge and the Bills will take it to the next level with a big win at Arrowhead.. Go Bills !

[RedDog3940]

Excellent read - thanks for writing this.  I'm hoping the Bills defense comes up big again against a much stronger offensive team.

[BigAl2526]

Even more important than running the ball on offense is sustaining drives.  If the threat of the run opens up the pass, I don't mind Josh passing the ball at all.  Don't take a lot of chances when you do it, but don't be afraid of it either.  The reality is probably something of a balance between the run and pass.  On defense, getting pressure from the front four is essential.  

[BillsShredder83]

Rousseau injury sucks whatever it is.  Really like that matchup vs Chiefs tackles who have struggled, and having seen what happens to Mahomes under pressure.  Time to graduate to big boy status! LFGGGGGGG

[ProcessTruster]

"Mahomes is getting the ball out quicker this season, funneling the ball to Kelce and Hill (his first reads), but his stats really drop off a cliff when he's forced to hold onto the ball longer/go through his progressions and especially when he is pressured (again both changes from the last couple seasons where his splits weren't nearly as bad"

 

Bills will need to play a awful lot of man coverage to allow pass rush to get there.   With Milano likely out or limited and the Bills primarily a zone pass defense , gonna be difficult to pressure Mahomes into a 3 second plus release timing.   In other words, since he eats up the blitz, he only way to get pressure on Mahomes is to play man to man coverage , which the Bills, in general, don't have the players (by design) to play (including TWhite who is not a press man cover guy).   

 

KC won't get the big play, bc McD's defense takes it away, but the short passing game + YAC should be there all night.   It seems KC's defense has fallen off, so look for this thing degrading into a shootout, with last possession winning.   

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

11 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Take the ball and ram it behind Spencer Brown Chiefs can’t stop the run to save their lives very very winnable game here…take care of the ball…limit penalties…hit a big play or two…I think we clock these guys heck Jalen Hurtd lit them up like a Christmas tree 

I really hope that for one more week, Kansas City keeps trying their Chris Jones at DE experiment. Teams have been able to run right at him really effectively from that spot and in my view, it's taken away what he does best which is batting down passes and pushing the pocket/providing interior pressure. Interesting to see what shape Jones and Frank Clark are in as well although I won't be surprised at all if they both play. 

11 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 "What a performance from the defense on Sunday despite missing some key starters."

 

Deshaun Watson?  

Was actually talking about the key starters that our defense was missing in Poyer, Taron Johnson, and Milano (for most of the game). I thought our defense has fully bought into that 'next man up' mentality and Jaquan Johnson/Cam Lewis really met the moment. AJ Klein flashed a few times as well.

 

But yeah Deshaun Watson not being on the other side sure helps!

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

10 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Rousseau injury sucks whatever it is.  Really like that matchup vs Chiefs tackles who have struggled, and having seen what happens to Mahomes under pressure.  Time to graduate to big boy status! LFGGGGGGG

Hoping Rousseau will be back and that he'll practice today...if there's a weak link on this KC offensive line, it's Lucas Niang who's a first year player after sitting out last season. Need to compress the pocket, get arms up into passing lanes, and pressure Mahomes into some bad decisions. He's made more this season than I can remember in past years. 

[HappyDays]

Excellent breakdown as usual. This has become one of my mandatory weekly reads.

 

I'm gonna do a LAMP thing and quote myself from another thread because this is an interesting point about Mahomes this year:

 

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Joe Marino brought up an interesting split on today's Locked on Bills podcast. The short version is that when Mahomes gets the ball out of his hands fast he is the best QB in the league this year; when he holds the ball he is one of the worst QBs.

 

More specifically - when he gets the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds he is completing 90.4% of his passes and has a passer rating of 140.9. That is, unsurprisingly, the best passer rating in the NFL in that scenario this year. And on those passes his time to throw averages 1.68 seconds.

 

When he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, he's completing just 46.6% of his passes and has a passer rating of 74.1. That is the 2nd worst completion percentage and 7th worst passer rating in the NFL in that scenario this year. And on those passes his average time to throw is 3.95 seconds.

 

So how do you slow down Mahomes? Make him hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. How do you make him hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds? Cover his safety valves in Hill and Kelce. Beyond those two they have nothing that scares you.

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by HappyDays

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Excellent breakdown as usual. This has become one of my mandatory weekly reads.

 

I'm gonna do a LAMP thing and quote myself from another thread because this is an interesting point about Mahomes this year:

 

 

Agreed, the key to the game on defense. It's been interesting that in the Chief's two losses, Kelce had big games, but Hill was almost non-existent with a lot of safety help over the top.  

On 10/7/2021 at 10:20 AM, ProcessTruster said:

"Mahomes is getting the ball out quicker this season, funneling the ball to Kelce and Hill (his first reads), but his stats really drop off a cliff when he's forced to hold onto the ball longer/go through his progressions and especially when he is pressured (again both changes from the last couple seasons where his splits weren't nearly as bad"

 

Bills will need to play a awful lot of man coverage to allow pass rush to get there.   With Milano likely out or limited and the Bills primarily a zone pass defense , gonna be difficult to pressure Mahomes into a 3 second plus release timing.   In other words, since he eats up the blitz, he only way to get pressure on Mahomes is to play man to man coverage , which the Bills, in general, don't have the players (by design) to play (including TWhite who is not a press man cover guy).   

 

KC won't get the big play, bc McD's defense takes it away, but the short passing game + YAC should be there all night.   It seems KC's defense has fallen off, so look for this thing degrading into a shootout, with last possession winning.   

Good breakdown here, thanks! And HappyDays has provided more the actual stats/splits above...I agree with most of your premise, but I'm hopeful that there are a very factors that can help us force Mahomes to hold onto the ball for longer:

 

1) Anticipate and disrupt passing lanes. The defensive line needs to be aware and get their hands up if they don't have a shot to get a sack. Also, Edmunds needs to continue his strong performance in coverage. His length takes away a lot in the middle of the field. 

2) Send four rushers, but switch them up. We need to keep Mahomes and KC's newly recreated offensive line guessing as to where the rush is coming from. For example, dropping a DE into coverage and letting Taron Johnson or Jordan Poyer get after Mahomes. 

3) Play physical with Kelce at the LoS to disrupt his timing and bracket Hill everywhere. I also know what you're saying about us not having the players for man coverage (this is why I was hoping we would draft a CB with speed early last year), but I think between Frazier's game planning, dropping seven guys into coverage most snaps, and the chemistry of our secondary, we can at least be tough to break down. It's an elite offense so I'm not expecting a low scoring game, but the defense just needs to make the occasional play here and there. Fingers crossed for Sunday!

[unbillievable]

Buffalo has the best offense the Chiefs will play against this year.

Kansas has the worst defense the Bills will play against this year.

 

I see the Bills winning this game by 50.

 

 

[muppy]

the Bills need to control the LOS and D Line needs to sique em on Mahomes and sack him or force bad throws

 

IDEAL SCENARIO if both those happen 

 

GO BILLS!~!~!~!

[LeGOATski]

Why do people keep saying Milano should cover Kelce? Why would that work and when has it ever worked?

 

I'm honestly questioning it. As painful as it may be, I have to go back and watch the last 2 games vs the Chefs.

 

If Milano is out there, my instinct tells me to use him mostly to stop the run, pressure and contain Mahomes, sniff out the flat routes to the RB. 

 

Edmunds has been great in coverage this year and should be able to bracket Kelce effectively with a DB.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

18 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Why do people keep saying Milano should cover Kelce? Why would that work and when has it ever worked?

 

I'm honestly questioning it. As painful as it may be, I have to go back and watch the last 2 games vs the Chefs.

 

If Milano is out there, my instinct tells me to use him mostly to stop the run, pressure and contain Mahomes, sniff out the flat routes to the RB. 

 

Edmunds has been great in coverage this year and should be able to bracket Kelce effectively with a DB.

Yeah I get it and to be honest there's no perfect answer. Kelce is a future Hall of Famer b/c he can't truly be covered one-on-one. 

 

Milano on Kelce has been a potential option or at least talking point with his skill set in the past. But the Bills have been using Poyer to cover tight ends more often in 2021 which is interesting. We haven't faced anyone near Kelce's level yet, but he's been doing a good job so far.

 

In general, I think the ideal scenario (and what teams like the Ravens/Chargers did) is to put your best man defender on Kelce (accepting that he will still make plays) and then double Hill wherever he goes. I agree that Edmunds seems like the ideal candidate for the Kelce match up with his speed and length.