FO: Bills over Texans was Top Defensive DVOA Ever Measured

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

Actually Star winning matchups and making plays proves dead wrong all the folks who spent years supporting him by saying the coaches don't want him to win matchups or make plays. For the first time we're seeing an effective football player. Hopefully it lasts all year and he doesn't go back to doing nothing.

 

 

Yeah Lotulelei's 2 game pace of play making would project to obliterate the best season of his long career............he's not the same player.    Different body composition and different style of playing 1 tech.

 

Attacking the pocket and being disruptive in the backfield is the only way 1 tech should be played, IMO.

 

If you want a space eating DT to hover at the LOS then align him at 0 as a NT where at least he can put the center on skates while drawing the double.     That's not pass defense centric 4 DL football,  but if you aren't going to shoot gaps then that is the way.   Allowing the center and guard to comfortably bracket off your DT gains you so little in run defense that it's not worth it.    

 

Despite good defensive numbers overall in 2018-2019,  the Bills were never any better than average in ypc allowed in the two years that Lotulelei was playing traffic cone.   

 

[RyanC883]

big test this Sunday.  LETS GOOOOOOO!!!!!!

[JerseyBills]

16 hours ago, uninja said:

Gawd people here panicking about Davis Mills and talking trap game nonsense. We're a good team and our defensive scheme eats rookie QBs for breakfast, lunch and dinner. People gotta start realizing that our defense is tough to get a read on and we're like Belichik with rookie QBs, we just grin and sneer, "fresh meat".

2 shutouts in a month.

Idc the opponent,we had many backups playing in both games. This team all around can potentially be an all time great team

[Shaw66]

16 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

If they had that stat in 1968, the Bills would own the other side of that as well. 🤣

!!!!!!!!

 

LOL.

[YattaOkasan]

16 hours ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

"Would be"? So why isn't it?

Season needs to play out maybe before it locks?  So subject to change?

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah Lotulelei's 2 game pace of play making would project to obliterate the best season of his long career............he's not the same player.    Different body composition and different style of playing 1 tech.

 

Attacking the pocket and being disruptive in the backfield is the only way 1 tech should be played, IMO.

 

If you want a space eating DT to hover at the LOS then align him at 0 as a NT where at least he can put the center on skates while drawing the double.     That's not pass defense centric 4 DL football,  but if you aren't going to shoot gaps then that is the way.   Allowing the center and guard to comfortably bracket off your DT gains you so little in run defense that it's not worth it.    

 

Despite good defensive numbers overall in 2018-2019,  the Bills were never any better than average in ypc allowed in the two years that Lotulelei was playing traffic cone.   

 

He does look smaller and a whole lot more athletic! The way he was flying past Dolphins linemen a couple weeks ago made me double-take to make sure I got that jersey number right. It's awesome to see.

[Mikie2times]

22 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Whoa.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/dvoa-week-4-bills-move-no-1-dominating-defense
 

“But the Bills are the big story, and we've got a lot of fun data to share about the incredible defensive performance they put together on Sunday. Right now, with the current opponent adjustments, the Bills come out with -134.4% defensive DVOA for Sunday's win. That would be the best defensive performance in a single game ever measured by DVOA, going all the way back to 1983.”

Thanks Tuesday, I'm a huge fan of DVOA's prognostication power and thought the last two years early in the season we were a bit overrated. Then both years we made some major progress in DVOA as the season progressed. So even more DVOA plot twists, we have a pattern of improving as the season progresses  I certainly expect some regression, the KC game will be a really big test, but the bottom line with this team, if you are a bottom 20 offense you will not beat us. They say "Any given Sunday" but not this team. Eventually we will get to 20 and lower performing offenses simply won't.    

[Wacka]

Not gonnaa click on the link, but what the F is DVOA??

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Wacka said:

Not gonnaa click on the link, but what the F is DVOA??

Very quick and dirty. It measures every distance, down, score, situation, and assigns it a value which is stored as a historical data base. Then on a per play basis teams get assigned a value that is above or below the expected outcome. Outcome is measured in conventional ways, like yards, turnovers, points, first downs, etc. Then your DVOA is the sum divided by plays. As far as I'm concerned it's the most accurate predictor of future outcomes that exists.  

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Wacka said:

Not gonnaa click on the link, but what the F is DVOA??

 

It's a porn acronym.  

D*****

V******

O***

A***

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's a porn acronym.  

D*****

V******

O***

A***

All of us are pausing, which words should I pick? 

 

D***

V*****

O?

A** 

Edited October 7, 2021 by KzooMike

[GoBills!]

A shut out this sunday is all that matter. 3 shut outs in a row and I'll start considering it. 

 

[Don Otreply]

14 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

No question they’ve had a run of cupcakes.  This weekend and the Tampa game are their two in-season defensive measuring sticks.  They also need to start game-planning now to face a team like Cleveland in January who can run it down their throats.  Very curious to see how well they hold up Sunday night in their first real test.

Yup, the KC game will tell us where we stand in comparison to the better teams in the league, I don’t have a concise reason to convey, but I think we will prevail on Sunday, although I will admit, I’m a bit nervous at present, this should pass about 7 ish minutes into the game.

 

Go Bills!!!

[Wacka]

10 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Very quick and dirty. It measures every distance, down, score, situation, and assigns it a value which is stored as a historical data base. Then on a per play basis teams get assigned a value that is above or below the expected outcome. Outcome is measured in conventional ways, like yards, turnovers, points, first downs, etc. Then your DVOA is the sum divided by plays. As far as I'm concerned it's the most accurate predictor of future outcomes that exists.  

IOW, something a stat geek would care about. The only stat that matters is what the scoreboard says when the clock reads 00:00.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Wacka

[JohnNord]

On 10/6/2021 at 7:56 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

No one was panicking about Mills.  He's essentially their 3rd string QB, rookie or not.

 

It was the perfect storm for the D--horrible opponent, benchwarmer young QB at home--to "run it up" on the Texans O.  It was a fun little workout for them.  Real work of this 2021 season begins (briefly) Sunday night.  

There were a lot of people in the Buffalo media who watched the Texans game against Carolina and came away with the conclusion that Davis Mills wasn’t that bad of a QB, and that Houston wasn’t the dumpster fire of a team that many people believe.  Joe Buscaglia, who I regard as one of the best on the Buffalo Beat was one of them.  

 

I also hear beat reporters from Houston saying that Culley would “take the reigns off” Mills against the Bills.   Houston went from being regarded as a scrappy underdog team to a train wreck.  
 

Houston isn’t as bad as they played last Sunday, the Buffalo media has no idea how to scout opponents, or the Houston beat reporters are big homers

Edited October 7, 2021 by JohnNord

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

There were a lot of people in the Buffalo media who watched the Texans game against Carolina and came away with the conclusion that Davis Mills wasn’t that bad of a QB, and that Houston wasn’t the dumpster fire of a team that many people believe.  Joe Buscaglia, who I regard as one of the best on the Buffalo Beat was one of them.  

 

I also hear beat reporters from Houston saying that Culley would “take the reigns off” Mills against the Bills.   Houston went from being regarded as a scrappy underdog team to a train wreck.  
 

Houston isn’t as bad as they played last Sunday, the Buffalo media has no idea how to scout opponents, or the Houston beat reporters are big homers

 

 

Mills took 4 sacks, completed under 20 passes and 1 TD against Carolina.  9 points of Offense.  Culley's a zero.  Texans were a dumpster fire all off-season.  Why expect something different with a guy like Mills at the wheel?

 

I was more worried about Heineke, who has had 2 pretty good games out of his 3 starts. 

[Mikie2times]

On 10/7/2021 at 5:39 AM, Wacka said:

IOW, something a stat geek would care about. The only stat that matters is what the scoreboard says when the clock reads 00:00.

Be sure to send a strongly worded letter to the Bills analytics department that their contributions aren't relevant. But if we win based on said analytics wouldn't that make them relevant? Is your mind relevant?

Edited October 9, 2021 by KzooMike

[Scott7975]

KC should not be used as a measuring stick for anybodies defense.  They hang 30 regularly no matter who the opponent.  Keeping them to like 26 or lower is like historic defense.

[Mr. K]

On 10/5/2021 at 8:44 PM, Coach Tuesday said:

Whoa.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/dvoa-week-4-bills-move-no-1-dominating-defense
 

“But the Bills are the big story, and we've got a lot of fun data to share about the incredible defensive performance they put together on Sunday. Right now, with the current opponent adjustments, the Bills come out with -134.4% defensive DVOA for Sunday's win. That would be the best defensive performance in a single game ever measured by DVOA, going all the way back to 1983.”

Sacks are a qb stat....

If Peter Peterperson plays the whole game the Chargers might have the record.

[Chandler#81]

On 10/5/2021 at 8:49 PM, WotAGuy said:

If they had that stat in 1968, the Bills would own the other side of that as well. 🤣

😲 Whaddaya mean?! Tom Flores, Kay Stephenson, Dan Darragh, Benny Russell, Ed Rutkowski?? 
These guys were legendary! No way we land OJ without their assistance!