Bills will get good value for Henry

[Kelly the Dog]

The surest indication of a player's value is how the "free market" reacts to his availablity and the reaction of all those teams was basically to take a pass.  We need to just get what we can for him and be done with it.

323292[/snapback]

Doesn't this infer that Henry has more value than either James or Alexander as they didn't get very many feelers or offers or trade discussions at all?

[Mickey]

I don't think that is true, Mick. The Seahags and the Colts will almost surely square up their rosters and running backs before training camp. I highly, highly doubt they are going to trade Shaun Alexander or Edgerin James on the eve of the season and basically pack it in for 2005. The two may not be totally happy campers if they sign one year tenders but they will be on the team. It would be different if they traded them before the draft and were able to get reasonable replacements and got ready for the season. I just don't see either of the other two getting traded this year unless it is VERY soon. James in fact has already seemed to be welcomed back to the Colts.

323286[/snapback]

You may be right but at the present, they are available and are better backs than Henry. Frankly, the league doesn't seem to percieve Henry to really be a starter since nobody would part with even a third round pick for him. Fact is, we didn't see him as a starter either which is why we drafted Willis. Apparently, other teams agree. All indications are that he is not a hot property at all. Aren't some more backs goint to be released by various teams in June?

 

There is no denying that he just isn't worth all that much and if he were, he'd be gone already. The mode we are in now is hoping for a season ending injury to a starting back on a team without an established second option. I'm sorry but to me, that sounds more than a little desperate. Hoping for a bolt from the blue is not sound investment strategy.

 

I don't deny it could happen but the idea that this was a smart play by the front office, the strategy all along, is just silly. They might not have had a choice but certainly, the plan was to get rid of him long ago. This is not where TD wanted to be with Henry.

[Mickey]

Doesn't this infer that Henry has more value than either James or Alexander as they didn't get very many feelers or offers or trade discussions at all? 

323304[/snapback]

They are priced right out of the market, Henry was at bargain basement prices and still no takers. Maybe we should throw in a set of dishes and see if we get a nibble.

[Kelly the Dog]

You may be right but at the present, they are available and are better backs than Henry.  Frankly, the league doesn't seem to percieve Henry to really be a starter since nobody would part with even a third round pick for him.  Fact is, we didn't see him as a starter either which is why we drafted Willis.  Apparently, other teams agree.  All indications are that he is not a hot property at all.  Aren't some more backs goint to be released by various teams in June?

 

There is no denying that he just isn't worth all that much and if he were, he'd be gone already.  The mode we are in now is hoping for a season ending injury to a starting back on a team without an established second option.  I'm sorry but to me, that sounds more than a little desperate.  Hoping for a bolt from the blue is not sound investment strategy.

 

I don't deny it could happen but the idea that this was a smart play by the front office, the strategy all along, is just silly.  They might not have had a choice but certainly, the plan was to get rid of him long ago.  This is not where TD wanted to be with Henry.

323309[/snapback]

I pretty much agree with all of that. But unless I missed something, I don't see people thinking this was the plan all along, they see it as not the end of the world and not the end of the possibilities. This may not be where TD wanted to be with Henry but surely what he has said all along. We want what WE think he is worth and we're not just giving him away, and if we cannot get what we want we will keep him and he will be our back-up. I just don't like to use other trades and trade offers as a player's "worth" because you see so many trades that don't equate to other trades, and teams for some ridiculous reason value second and third and fourth round draft picks way too much when most of them crap out and established players can be had in FA for similar monies.

[Kelly the Dog]

They are priced right out of the market, Henry was at bargain basement prices and still no takers.  Maybe we should throw in a set of dishes and see if we get a nibble.

323313[/snapback]

This has been said before but people seem to forget it: While Henry's contract SEEMS like an incentive to trade it's actually a deterrent. No one wants to give him a huge extension AND give up a high pick or good player for him. No one wants to give up a high pick or good player for him and then lose him after one year (whether he does great or tanks). So they're stuck in the middle.

[plenzmd1]

They are priced right out of the market, Henry was at bargain basement prices and still no takers.  Maybe we should throw in a set of dishes and see if we get a nibble.

323313[/snapback]

 

The way I see it, Henry is not at bargain basement as his contract is only for the one year. However, I cannot see someone trading for Edge or Alexander as they would need to commit long term to them via a restructure.

 

Where Henrys value comes in as I see it is if a team that feels it has SB aspirations than Henry can be a one year stop gap if someone goes down.

 

The only problem i see in that scenario is we all know Travis isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, so it better happen early!!!!

[stuckincincy]

Wonder what the trading deadline date will be this year? It's usually in the 3rd week in October.

[Mickey]

I pretty much agree with all of that. But unless I missed something, I don't see people thinking this was the plan all along, they see it as not the end of the world and not the end of the possibilities. This may not be where TD wanted to be with Henry but surely what he has said all along. We want what WE think he is worth and we're not just giving him away, and if we cannot get what we want we will keep him and he will be our back-up. I just don't like to use other trades and trade offers as a player's "worth" because you see so many trades that don't equate to other trades, and teams for some ridiculous reason value second and third and fourth round draft picks way too much when most of them crap out and established players can be had in FA for similar monies.

323321[/snapback]

The poster that started the thread said:

 

"Everyone acts like it was a huge mistake not to trade Henry before/during the draft. Am I the only one that thinks the Bills will get better value for Henry during training camp or in the preseason?"

 

That sounded to me like he was saying this situation was a blessing but maybe I read too much into that.

[Reuben Gant]

Everyone in the news media is saying TD has overplayed his hand with

Henry. But sometimes if you have a good hand you check to see if you can get something more in the pot. With the offers on Draft Day, TD could have stolen the ante and have been done with it, or he could have done what he has. I think Henry's value will go up as we near the season opener. Injuries are a fact, some draft picks don't pan out, and then teams will come looking for a proven starter.

 

It is far too early to say that TD has overplayed his hand. Patience.

[Mickey]

The way I see it, Henry is not at bargain basement as his contract is only for the one year. However, I cannot see someone trading for Edge or Alexander as they would need to commit long term to them via a restructure.

 

Where Henrys value comes in as I see it is if a team that feels it has SB aspirations than Henry can be a one year stop gap if someone goes down.

 

The only problem i see in that scenario is we all know Travis isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, so it better happen early!!!!

323332[/snapback]

That is a good point. When I said he was a bargain, I was speaking strictly in terms of draft picks. I don't bother with the money, just whether the guy helps you win. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the office of various NFL GM's when they are considering the value of Henry. I have a sneaky suspicion that money and draft picks aside, they just don't think much of his running ability.

 

Think of how often teams have signed marginal FA's for overpriced contracts, it happens all the time and yet Henry is barely getting a sniff. You have to wonder whether people think he really any good on the field.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Certainly the market did not play out the way TD intended prior to the draft, but like he said, he is not going to trade Henry unless the market gives him the value he thinks Henry is worth.

 

The good news for TD and those panicing about this is that the market changes all the time and that is where injury for failure to perform comes in. If/when a team's starting RB in injured or fails to perform as expected, the market will change and that is the point where TD will assess again whether he is being offered what he considers reasonable for Henry.

 

While I agree that Alexander and James are far better RBs than Henry and their teams want to move them, I think the big factor in this for a trade may well be that Henry has a $1.25 million cap hit when traded for, James cap hit was over $3 million last year and I think Alexander;s was in this neighborhood as well.

 

If/when somone needs a starting RB, Henry is a likely cost-effective choice and may end up being the only choice a team has to acquire a former Pro Bowl RB if they cannot create more than a million and change in cap room.

 

From the Bills perspective, the idea of bringing in Thomas and other formerly great back-up RBs is a good one. If we have to do a sudden trade of Henry I do not see Shaud Williams as my #2 RB. If no trade is needed or diable, I think that Henry has few options but to play and play hard for the Bills if he wants a big payday in the future.

 

Moves that folks suggest like Henry merely showing up for 6 games to get his FA would so diminish his ability to get a big contract by giving him a second year in a row of non good play and also increase huis bad rep among players for letting his teammates down and not watching WM's back that it does not seem rational in the least.

[Assquatch]

Well, that view is pretty similar to what we heard before the draft.  That TD would get what he wanted by waiting until draft day and then he would be besieged with offers.  Henry isn't the only running back out there nor is he even the best available right now.  If some team does lose a starter to injury, Henry would probably be their third choice at best.  Therefore, we need three starters to get hurt in camp before Henry's stock goes up.  Besides, teams know that he is pretty much useless to us as it is so I doubt we would have much of a bargaining position.

 

As it stands now, the most likely scenario is that we will have a pro bowler stewing on the bench all year who will be gone at the end of the season in exchange for nothing.

323271[/snapback]

 

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Teams were not desperate at the draft. Someone will be desperate when their main back gets hurt.

 

Henry may in fact be the third best available back, but he is the best cap-friendly one when most teams dont have the cap space to sign the best available back when their star gets hurt, especially if they just plan to use him to fill in so their season isn't tanked because their back is out for 4-5 weeks.

 

You say Henry is useless to the Bills so we won't get much for him. I believe it is not his value to the Bills that determines his value, but his value to some desperate team. It will happen. There are 32 chances someone will get hurt in the preseason, and Henry is a good bet to replace him.

[Mickey]

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Teams were not desperate at the draft.  Someone will be desperate when their main back gets hurt.

 

Henry may in fact be the third best available back, but he is the best cap-friendly one when most teams dont have the cap space to sign the best available back when their star gets hurt, especially if they just plan to use him to fill in so their season isn't tanked because their back is out for 4-5 weeks.

 

You say Henry is useless to the Bills so we won't get much for him.  I believe it is not his value to the Bills that determines his value, but his value to some desperate team.  It will happen.  There are 32 chances someone will get hurt in the preseason, and Henry is a good bet to replace him.

323605[/snapback]

 

If the only way we get much value for Henry is if some team loses their starter to a season ending injury and on top of that, doesn't have a second stringer they are comfortable with as a starter then we are in a bad situation. Effectively, we are hoping on dumb luck to get us out of this mess. That is not a personnel strategy.

 

I just don't understand how we can even call him the third best available RB if not a single team was willing to part with a lousy third rounder to get him. Denver was more interested in Maurice Clarett than Travis. We need to accept the reality that the league does not think much of Travis Henry as a running back. That should come as no surprise to us, we don't think much of him which is why we spent a first round pick to find his replacement.

 

It certainly is possible that the siutation will be resolved when other backs get hurt but I would hardly describe waiting around hoping just the right back gets seriously hurt at the right time to be in the catbird's seat. This is absolutely not where wanted to be. Granted, maybe we will get lucky but that is all it will be, luck.

[ATBNG]

Again, if Henry is as dimwitted as is generally suggested, isn't he less of a candidate for a preseason trade since the "desperate" team will need to acquire someone that can come in and learn the system very quickly?

 

Carrying Henry into the preseason when has no future with this team waiting for an injury somewhere else seems risky to me. Aren't the Bills better off cutting him and spending a portion of his money on a Lamont Jordan/Kevin Faulk/Richie Anderson type who can back up McGahee and specialize as a third down back?

[beausox]

Some poster claimed the Eagles may offer a 3rd next year. I'd take that in a second, since the 2006 draft is twice as strong as the draft just completed.

323139[/snapback]

 

Was not this draft as good in the middle rounds as normal? It was the first round that was not as strong. Many GM's would rather not draft in the top ten and NE Pats have a track record of trading down. Of course a large group of high quality- franchise type picks in 1st round push "middle quality" players deeper. Such considerations make me to believe that the quantitative point system has to adjust for qualitative vagaries year to year.

[LabattBlue]

Was not this draft as good in the middle rounds as normal? It was the first round that was not as strong.

323722[/snapback]

That is the way I understood it.

[dogbyte]

The NFL trading deadline is OCT 18th for 2005. TH will have to be moved before that date or you can no longer trade him

[Bill from NYC]

Everyone acts like it was a huge mistake not to trade Henry before/during the draft.  Am I the only one that thinks the Bills will get better value for Henry during training camp or in the preseason?

 

Of the 32 teams, one of them (including possibly the Bills) will lose their starting running back before the first weekend of real games.  Having Henry on the roster when that happens will be a great asset.  Even if they end up with a 3rd rounder in '06 for Henry, that pick should be better than a 3rd rounder in '05 would have been.

 

When someone loses their starter, I imagine getting a 3rd round pick next year won't be very hard when they realize how much better Henry is than their backup, even if it is just to fill in while their main guy heals.

323044[/snapback]

 

Travis Henry is all but worthless. He could not bring us a decent pick in a poor draft. Thinking that he can bring us a decent pick in a strong draft is silly.

 

What is the problem? GMs around the league simply do not view him as a good football player, which he is not.

 

Imo, he will be cut in early September, and then if he is lucky, sign for the NFL minimum with another team. The Bills will lose a sack of sh-- and gain approx. 1 mil in cap space.

Sounds OK to me.