Zero's Chiefs VS Bills breakdown

[hondo in seattle]

Zero, thanks for stopping in and sharing your insights.

 

This will be my first live in-stadium  Bills game in 10+ years.  It's good to know the 'enemy' a little bit before I show up in Arrowhead.  

 

The Bills lost to your guys twice last season.  The Chiefs might be in our heads a little.  And while the Chiefs have some flaws, so do the Bills - starting with the OL.

 

It'll be fun to get heckled at the game - more fun if the heckling comes during a Bills victory.  

 

 

[JMF2006]

36 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

What worries me the most is Allen coming out all hyped up as he sometimes does and missing on a bunch of passes, kind of like the Pitt game.  Hopefully someone will steady him.

 

Some needs to put valium in his water

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

If I ever did that I would be up all night

 

Not me.  I can nap at like 8:00 pm...wake up at 10:00 and then go back to sleep in an hour.

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Not me.  I can nap at like 8:00 pm...wake up at 10:00 and then go back to sleep in an hour.

 

I fell asleep after the first quarter last night and woke up for the 4th and didn't get to bed until 3am then woke up at 7am.

 

Thankfully its my day off today

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

11 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

Here is what the Bills can expect VS the Chiefs.  

 

Let me give a little perspective on KC's 2-2 season to date.

 

KC has been BAD on defense. I'll get to that.  The important part to know is that KC's two losses were by a combined 7 points and while having a -7 TO ratio.  Both games were winnable to the end.  Both games would have been W's without the TO's.  That said, KC is a handful of plays either way where they could be 0-4 or 4-0.  Keep that in mind as I break this down.

 

On offense, KC is a little bit a different team this year.  The new line, especially the G-C-G combo has been effective at getting a push in the run game.  This has allowed KC to be more efficient at 3rd down and has caused teams to pay attention to the run, or not, at their peril.  KC has been able to get yards on the ground at a better rate this year.  So far teams have NOT committed anything to stopping the run and instead we've seen teams continue to play a deep shell type D that aims to take away Hill or Kelce or both by bracketing them..  KC is a team used to big chunk plays on offense, but in the past couple weeks, KC has just taken what teams have given with tons of underneath stuff and allowing runs.  KC has been patient enough the last 2 games to just take what the defenses ahve been giving.  KC had SEVERAL long drives VS the Chargers doing this, but kept turning the ball over deep in Charger terriroty, leaving several points on the board.  It was the same today VS the Eagles....several long TD drives just taking the short stuff they were giving up...and run run run...all the way to the end zone.  It's not exactly what were are used to seeing.  KC is still scoring at a high rate..and unless stopped by a turnover, they aren't getting stopped. KC has barely punted all season, and didn't punt at all VS the Eagles.  KC has shown some pass blocking problems...especially form the 2 tackles...they can be beaten....the difference from last year is the G-C-G has been quite effective and Mahomes has been good at just stepping up into the pocket when the Tackles get beaten or ride the rushers wide and around to the rear.  the G-C-G while solid, can struggle a play or 2 during the game when a stunt isn't passed off or handled correctly. Genrerally theyv'e done well but room to improve there. 

 

In the Run game, the line is getting good push and making sizable holes even.  I will tell you that CEH (our lead back) isn't very dynamic.  He gets good yardage when a hole is open, but nothing more than that...he doesn't make people miss and he tends to go down on first contact.

 

The passing game is pretty much what you'd expect.  A steady dose of Hill and Kelce...along with some jet sweeps and WR screen to Hardman.  

 

KC's offense has only been stopped by KC itself whenever it turns the ball over.  Otherwise..playing shell hasn't done anything but make KC run more plays.  Over 30 first downs a game last couple.  If the Bills D can get a stop or 2, it would go a long way to winning the game....

 

KC's D has been BAD.  It isn't fast, it doesn't rush the passer well, and it also can't stop the run with hit's undersized interior lineman and slow LB's.  The corners aren't very good either...not as good as what we run out last year.  Some of you might remember my analysis of last years AFCCG where I informed you that Kc's secondary was top 3 VS wideouts in the NFL last year....and why that wasn't good for the Bills.  That played out in the game.  This year is NOT the same.  KC doesn't have Breeland, I also beleive honey badger has lost half a step.  The others defenders just aren't as good...the Bills wideouts should have an easier time of it compared to last year.  KC has been running out Hitchens Nieman and Bolton at LB.  Hitchens is slow and way overpaid. Nieman shouldn't be on an NFL roster, let alone a practice squad.  Bolton (rookie 2nd rounder) has been good, but he isn't great in coverage yet.  Hitchens and Nieman are easy targets in the run and pass game.  Often getting swallowed up by O lineman, and slow to get to a spot in the run game...and slow in coverage as well.  One improvement Kc may make VS the Bills is LB Willie Gay should be back...if so, he offers A TON more spead and coverage abilty and potentially makes this AWFUL D, slighly less awful.  On the Dline, KC has moved Chris Jones to DE.  This has not worked out well.  He's not been very effective as a pass rusher out there...can't set an edge in the run game iether.  The guys KC starts/rotates in at DT are LIGHT.  And for being light dudes, they also dont' rush the passer well.  They get ROLLED OVER in the run game easily.  So, KC's line is both small, AND ineffecitve at rushing the passer...it SUCKS.

 

As a diehard, Chiefs fan....I do not expect my beloved Chiefs to win this game.  I see Buffalo as the better team overall, with a QB that negates KC's normal advantage at QB in most games.  Not this one.  Allen is the man.  I can't see the KC defense forcing so much as 1 punt for the upcoming game....KC will hope for a mistake/turnover or 2 because we aren't stopping you guys without that.  If the Bills do not make an error, they should win the game.  It may be that you get one or two stops and that's ball game.  

 

KC would need to be turnover free and proably not have to punt to be the winner.  That's alot ot ask for.  Hate to say it, but I think this is a Bills win....it's there for the taking.  I don't htink this is a question of KC stopping you guys...but for your team to just have it in their heads they they can win this game and then go and do it.

 

I hope KC takes it, but frankly, this is the Bills game to take if they can play their A game.

 

GO CHIEFS!

 

 

I appreciate your sober take/analysis of the Chiefs going into this game, and gives fans like me some "inside" perspective for things to specifically watch for from the other side. I think the Bills' main issue (besides getting a stop or 2 on D), is getting out of their own heads and having the right mental focus & avoid the "here we go again" mindset if they have a negative play--if they can do that, the game's then there for the taking. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I fell asleep after the first quarter last night and woke up for the 4th and didn't get to bed until 3am then woke up at 7am.

 

Thankfully its my day off today

 

You should eat an edible and drink Nyquil with it.

[aristocrat]

Chiefs kicked our butt last year and we need to get that monkey off our back. Go in there and beat them so we're not afraid of them anymore. They're as beatable as they've been in years. 

[BearNorth]

2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Actually, on all 4 FG, the ball was snapped from inside the red zone. 

Los on the 4 FG's was 15, 8, 2, 10.  Def need some 2020 type creativity in the red zone.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Los on the 4 FG's was 15, 8, 2, 10.  Def need some 2020 type creativity in the red zone.

 

I suspect, though this is just that - a suspicion - that the Bills were trying not to use some of their best redzone stuff against the Texans. Remember the game against a winless Jets team last year where it was similar, FGs not touchdowns? I get the impression when the Bills play these teams they really believe they are clearly better than they try and get by with more vanilla redzone playcalling. Keep the tricks in the bag for next week. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I suspect, though this is just that - a suspicion - that the Bills were trying not to use some of their best redzone stuff against the Texans. Remember the game against a winless Jets team last year where it was similar, FGs not touchdowns? I get the impression when the Bills play these teams they really believe they are clearly better than they try and get by with more vanilla redzone playcalling. Keep the tricks in the bag for next week. 

Allen is still having to dance to avoid pass-rushers breaking through the line.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Allen is still having to dance to avoid pass-rushers breaking through the line.

 

Yes. That is true. That also tends to restrict your play calling options.

[Dan Darragh]

3 hours ago, teef said:

the biggest issue going into sunday is that the game with interfere with my bedtime.  

Gametime is 3:20 AM where I live. 

[teef]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have had to book Monday next week and Tuesday the following week off. Over here in the UK I am good with the Bills kicking off at 1pm your time every week.

I live the 1pm game time.  It breaks up my Sunday’s perfectly.  I get the allure of the prime time game, but…my bedtime. 

1 hour ago, Dan Darragh said:

Gametime is 3:20 AM where I live. 

Do you live on the moon?

Edited October 4, 2021 by teef

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

What was missing last season that seems to be working 

 

Run game 

Edge rushes with Very Long arms

[LeGOATski]

So...Star Lotulelei is going to be the difference maker AGAIN....

 

I'm gonna start calling him All-Star Protulelei

[Big Turk]

On ChiefsPlanet most seem to think this is going to be another Ram/Chiefs type shootout with neither D stopping the other.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

Hapless...KC has been absolutely dreadful as a red zone D (they are dreadful no matter where on the field)  ...but if KC holds your drives to FG's a couple times...that will be bad...and vice versa...if you hold KC to field goals...all the better for you all.

 

To those of you recalling the Chiefs DB's being a hard problem to solve last year.....take my word for it....it's very different this year.  No Bashaud Breeland, who was a perfect fit in the Spagnuollo system...Charvarious Ward is the other starting Corner.....he's been hurt and didn't play today...Honey Badger has lost a step.  Dan Sorenson was slow last year...he still is and still can't cover well or tackle half the time.  Sneed still on the team and was great as a rookie...he's still playing OK, but right now, as the soccer guys say...he's not in top form at the momment.  The tother DB's are first round washouts from other teams and they are showing so far why they washed out.  this is NOT the same secondary you saw before....not close...they play a ton of soft zone now too instead of man.  

 

I am freaking terrified the Bills can and will throw a 50 up on the scoreboard.  IT's that bad here.  Mahomes will have to be perfect and put up 51 to win...that's where this team is.  

 

This is going to be a different kind of season in KC...unlike the last 3....we aren't getting the 1 seed.  We are going to lose some games where we just can't score enough....the idea is to just get to the playoffs, hopefully getting hot and healthy at the right time and see what happens.

 

This is shaping to be a good test for both teams!

 

Last year in the playoffs and against the Steelers, the Bills seemed to come into the game with the hope they didn't need a run game or a functional TE if they felt they should be able to pass (and we couldn't run against the league's best DLs anyway).  That didn't work too well.  So far, this year, Hard Knox seems to be a level up and so does our run game - how big a level to be determined

 

I'm encouraged that we have been able to put up > league average rush yards against Mia, WFT, and Hou, two of which teams had top defenses in the league last year and were anticipated to have good defenses this year.  But KC and Tenn were two teams we just couldn't run against last season. 

 

But we'll see.  Did NOT like the way 5 of our drives stalled against Houston (gave me 2019 playoff flashbacks), though I take the point that when you're up 33 to zip at the point where the backup QB goes in there's perhaps not too much to complain of.   There were self-inflicted wounds there with a sack, a TFL, an aborted snap, and penalties.  But there were also incompletions on 3rd down.

[MJS]

The Chiefs got away with mugging receivers in the secondary last year, including in the Championship game against the Bills. In the Superbowl the refs finally started calling stuff on them and I think that was one of the keys to the Tampa Bay victory, along with getting tons of pressure on Mahomes.

 

I'm not convinced that the Bills can slow down Hill or Kelce. They couldn't last year and they won't be able to this year either. What's that mean? Probably a shootout. But I think the Bills have a far better defense and so will get at least a couple stops or turnovers which may be the difference in the game.

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

On ChiefsPlanet most seem to think this is going to be another Ram/Chiefs type shootout with neither D stopping the other.

I think that's how the 2nd half will be. I won't be surprised if both defenses play decently the first half. The Chiefs are sick of getting told their defense is so bad, so they'll come out motivated. The Bills just legitimately have a top 5 defense so they'll have some answers early on.

 

By the 2nd half the Bills offense and Chiefs offense will both get rolling and the flood gates will open.

[billsfan1959]

On 10/3/2021 at 10:29 PM, Zerovoltz said:

As a diehard, Chiefs fan....I do not expect my beloved Chiefs to win this game.  I see Buffalo as the better team overall, with a QB that negates KC's normal advantage at QB in most games.  Not this one.  Allen is the man.  I can't see the KC defense forcing so much as 1 punt for the upcoming game....KC will hope for a mistake/turnover or 2 because we aren't stopping you guys without that.  If the Bills do not make an error, they should win the game.  It may be that you get one or two stops and that's ball game.  

 

KC would need to be turnover free and proably not have to punt to be the winner.  That's alot ot ask for.  Hate to say it, but I think this is a Bills win....it's there for the taking.  I don't htink this is a question of KC stopping you guys...but for your team to just have it in their heads they they can win this game and then go and do it.

 

I hope KC takes it, but frankly, this is the Bills game to take if they can play their A game.

 

Good calls - and the Bills didn't even need their A game...

 

FWIW, I expect KC to be fully in the hunt at the end of the year, even with their defensive issues.

[muppy]

Mods please delete if not appropo here.

 

timekills a bills fan and 2BD member hosts a site wherein he edits and makes a condensed edited to leave pertinent plays Bills  gamewatch film each and every week..https://news.timekills.info/

 

he has the Bills-Chiefs game up already!!