CorkScrewHill Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ Bills in simulations: 89% to make the playoffs - highest 79% to win division - highest 21% to get first round bye - highest in AFC; 2nd highest overall to Rams 11% win Super Bowl - 3rd highest Average final record is 12-5 which is tied with the Rams for the most. I think much of this comes from the schedule and in particular the division we are in. 2 1
Saxum Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ Bills in simulations: 89% to make the playoffs - highest 79% to win division - highest 21% to get first round bye - highest in AFC; 2nd highest overall to Rams 11% win Super Bowl - 3rd highest Average final record is 12-5 which is tied with the Rams for the most. I think much of this comes from the schedule and in particular the division we are in. Surprised Titans do not have highest percentage since they have Colts (injuries), Jaguars (head coach) and Texans (injuries, brain farts) in division.
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 That reminds me: playoffstatus.com Too early to be a valid tool now, but interesting to watch weekly as the season progresses.
TBBills Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 7 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ Bills in simulations: 89% to make the playoffs - highest 79% to win division - highest 21% to get first round bye - highest in AFC; 2nd highest overall to Rams 11% win Super Bowl - 3rd highest Average final record is 12-5 which is tied with the Rams for the most. I think much of this comes from the schedule and in particular the division we are in. You mean we have to live through 4 more losses on this forum? 11 1 1
MrSarcasm Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, TBBills said: You mean we have to live through 4 more losses on this forum? 2
timekills17 Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, TBBills said: You mean we have to live through 4 more losses on this forum? Joking aside, as long as two of them aren't in the next three weeks... And by next three weeks I really mean the two weeks after this, if not immediately obvious. (P.S. Although often mistaken for one, I am not a member of the Buffalo Bills, and thus is completely acceptable that I look past the Texans game.) 4
Orlando Buffalo Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 I don't understand 538 at times- the QB adjusted ELO gives the bills less chance than the traditional but Josh is their highest rated QB on the other tab. How do your chances go down if you are over representing the best player by your standards? Numbers though overall look reasonable 1
Big Turk Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) Allen is the highest ranked QB in the NFL in terms of ELO at 258...one point ahead of Mahomes at 257... Edited September 30, 2021 by Big Turk
Bill Murray Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) At this stage, it would take catastrophic injury to JA to not win the division and make the playoffs. We obliterated our biggest competition, Miami, on the road, 35-0 in a Defense led route. Even w Trubitsky, we beat the Jets twice and prob sweep NE and beat Miami again to go 6-0 in the division. it would be extremely difficult to not win the AFC East while sweeping division games. And i dont think im being over confident here, its just the reality of the situation. Edited September 30, 2021 by Bill Murray 1
LeGOATski Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Bill Murray said: At this stage, it would take catastrophic injury to JA to not win the division and make the playoffs. We obliterated our biggest competition, Miami, on the road, 35-0 in a Defense led route. Even w Trubitsky, we beat the Jets twice and prob sweep NE and beat Miami again to go 6-0 in the division. it would be extremely difficult to not win the AFC East while sweeping division games. And i dont think im being over confident here, its just the reality of the situation. It's really a toss up between NE and Miami. I think NE will be a tougher game for the Bills.
chris heff Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 We have Miami at home and first Pats game is at home, by the time we play the Pats in NE it will be over.
Freddie's Dead Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 8 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said: I don't understand 538 at times- the QB adjusted ELO gives the bills less chance than the traditional but Josh is their highest rated QB on the other tab. How do your chances go down if you are over representing the best player by your standards? Numbers though overall look reasonable Jeff Lynne works at 538? I did not know that.... (in my best Carsenio)
LABILLBACKER Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 8 hours ago, Big Turk said: Allen is the highest ranked QB in the NFL in terms of ELO at 258...one point ahead of Mahomes at 257... I like Electric Light Orchestra..... 1
machine gun kelly Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Corta, I don’t remember you sending every week, but if not, please do. I finally came out of the closet starting a recurring thread tomorrow with predict the score and a description of what you think will happen. I love these that have substance. 619 is starting the predict the best player Sunday which is cool as people have to say why. Shady has his maps and unis, a couple guys try and give out the all 22, and then there are the classics with Virg and Rockpile. Can’t remember the poster but we have a guy in a mission to breakdown Edmunds every week. These threads add fun and value.. vs. fire or trade “insert name”. Anyway, excellent post. I enjoyed it. 15 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: I like Electric Light Orchestra..... This is how I felt bout Josh after the WTF game. Hes a Livin Thing.. Higher and Higher Baby!
Locomark Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 19 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ Bills in simulations: 89% to make the playoffs - highest 79% to win division - highest 21% to get first round bye - highest in AFC; 2nd highest overall to Rams 11% win Super Bowl - 3rd highest Average final record is 12-5 which is tied with the Rams for the most. I think much of this comes from the schedule and in particular the division we are in. Can you imagine what those % will sky rocket to if we beat KC and go up ostensibly 3 games on them?
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