Scouting The Houston Texans

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

A dominating and balanced performance against the Washington Football Team. Josh Allen reminded us how elite he can be. Zack Moss was punishing defenders. Aside from a fluky kickoff and a well-executed screen play, the Bills defense completely shut down Taylor Heinicke and the WFT passing offense and through three games, we have an elite run defense (haven't said those words in a very long time!). Daboll/Frazier drew up brilliant game plans and McDermott displayed aggressive in-game mgmt. Three games in and now a game up in the division, that Week 1 loss feels very far away. 

 

Looking ahead, the Bills are welcoming the Houston Texans to town coming off their loss on Thursday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers. The Texans are going through a rebuild and are basically a completely new team compared to the one that knocked us out of the playoffs in 2019. Stars like DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt, and Deshaun Watson are gone while they brought in about 200 new guys in free agency this past offseason. There was an expectation that Houston could tank and that they would likely be the worst team in the NFL, but to be honest, I think the Texans are a better team than the Jets and the Jaguars as they showed in Week 1. Houston got some decent value on some of their free agent pickups particularly on offense and have a few talented players on both sides of the ball. It's worth noting that Houston will have a rest advantage having played on Thursday Night Football.

 

For the second straight week, the opponent's starting QB/former Bills QB is on the IR and Tyrod Taylor will miss this reunion in Buffalo. Third round rookie WR Nico Collins joins him on the IR as well. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into Houston's last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings   ***take these with a grain of salt since it has only been three weeks!***

 

 

Sunday September 12th- Week 1 Home Win vs. Jacksonville (the Jaguars (current record: 0-3) have the 29th ranked offense, 27th ranked defense, and 15th ranked special teams) by a score of 37-21:

 

Tyrod Taylor (21/33 for 291 yards, 2 passing TD, and 0 INT with 40 rushing yards)- Tyrod played his usual style of game and played well to open the season. He displayed his ability to escape pressure to extend plays, picking up first downs with his legs or executing accurate throws to open receivers. Taylor evaded multiple would-be sacks and limited mistakes, looking a lot like the player he was with the Bills. Taylor seems to have established great chemistry with his #1 WR Cooks, connecting on a couple deep shots downfield (has to be said that a better secondary would have broken up or picked off both throws though). Taylor led his team on a great TD drive before the half, hitting Amendola on a crossing route for the TD. However, as much as he's easy to root for and has been through a lot of the past few years, he's still a limited QB at this level in terms of his willingness to throw WRs open. The offensive line (which definitely looked stronger on the left side) struggled in the run game, but held up fairly well in pass protection, allowing only 1 sack although Taylor helped them out several times.

 

Texans Running Game- A veteran RB room with Mark Ingram (85 yards, 3.3 YPC, and 1 TD) as the primary back and then a mix of Phillip Lindsay (25 yards, 3.1 YPC, and 1 TD), David Johnson (10 yards and 3.3 YPC as well as 3 catches for 18 yards and 1 TD), and Rex Burkhead getting a few snaps here and there. Ingram never goes down on first contact, but wasn't especially effective on his carries. He rumbled in for Houston's first TD off the left side. Johnson looks a bit faster than he has in the past couple seasons and hauled in a short TD catch, walking in untouched after a well-designed pick play. Lindsay provides the speed and receiving ability for a change of pace and scored Houston's last TD running off the left. It is worth noting that Houston's YPC was poor and they also struggled to convert on several third-and-short plays throughout this contest.

 

Brandin Cooks (5 catches for 132 yards)- Has bounced around the league a ton for a player with his talent (there has something going on with him behind the scenes, right?). Cooks made an incredible forty yard contested catch over Janoris Jenkins to set the Texans up with a first-and-goal opportunity in the first quarter. Then Cooks won another contested catch situation to set up Houston in the red zone for a TD with only 12 seconds left in the second quarter. Jacksonville struggled to contain him and he made a number of chunk plays to set up Houston for scoring opportunities. 

 

Chris Conley (2 catch for 27 yards)- The #2 WR in this offense, not a major factor in this one.

 

Danny Amendola (5 catches for 34 yards and 1 TD)- The trouble with Amendola has always been availability, but he's still a steady and reliable chain mover when healthy. Got separation on a crosser to score the Texans' third TD

 

Pharoah Brown (4 catches for 67 yards)- Didn't really know anything about this player before this week. Made an outstanding one-handed catch to set the Texans up for their final TD. 

 

Texans Run Defense- Didn't have too much work to do as Jacksonville was multiple scores behind for most of the game and went pass-heavy. Carlos Hyde (44 yards and 4.9 YPC) and James Robinson (25 yards and 5.0 YPC) didn't get many opportunities as a result, but found some room to operate on their touches. 

 

Texans Pass Defense- After all the hype before and after the draft, Houston gave Trevor Lawrence (28/51 for 332 yards, 3 passing TD, and 3 INT with -2 rushing yards) a rude welcome in his pro debut. Lawrence found some soft spots in the Texans zone defense and there seemed to be some busted coverages at times for Houston, but he made too many rookie mistakes and two of the TDs came in garbage time. Justin Reid got the first INT of Trevor Lawrence's career as he was in perfect position for a throw that sailed as Lawrence was rolling out to his left. Then Vernon Hargreaves baited Lawrence into an ill-advised INT on his next attempt, setting Houston up in the red zone. Lawrence saved his worst INT for the fourth quarter when he threw over the middle straight to Christian Kirksey, I honestly don't know what he saw as there were four Houston players nearest to the ball before the closest Jacksonville target. These INTs happened even as the Texans pass rush struggled to get home with Whitney Mercilus getting the only sack of Lawrence late in the fourth quarter. 

 

Miscellaneous- On a third-and-goal play, Taylor ran and then lateraled the ball to Johnson which went out of bounds (weird given our last game against Houston and how rarely you see that type of play). Houston led 34-7 late in the third quarter before Jacksonville made the score line a bit more respectable. Joey Slye is the current Texans kicker while Ka'imi Fairbairn is on IR. Houston averaged 6.0 yards per play (they went 12/21 on third down and didn't commit a turnover) and committed 5 penalties for 50 yards. 

 

Sunday September 19th- Week 2 Away Loss vs. Cleveland (the Browns (current record: 2-1) have the 4th ranked offense, 10th ranked defense, and 6th ranked special teams) by a score of 31-21:

 

Tyrod Taylor (10/11 for 125 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 15 rushing yards and 1 TD)- started this game really well, going 6/6 and leading his offense for a TD on their first drive. Has done a great job on RPOs so far, seems to always make the right decision and sells it well. Evaded pressure and walked into the end zone to give Houston a surprise 14-7 lead in the second quarter. Unfortunately, Taylor was injured and then replaced by rookie Davis Mills (8/18 for 102 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT) in the third quarter. Mills was intercepted while throwing over the middle almost immediately which gave Cleveland the ball in the red zone. Mills did lead a nice fourth quarter drive that ended with a TD to Cooks, but didn't feel the pressure and took a bad sack on his second last drop back and then nearly got sacked on his final attempt as well, holding onto the ball too long. The offensive line put together another steady performance, allowing just the one sack of Mills.

 

Texans Running Game- Lindsay showed his elusiveness on a well-blocked screen play to the right and weaved his way for a 22 yard TD. Johnson (25 yards and 4.2 YPC as well as 22 receiving yards) ran hard after catching a short pass on a third-and-13 play and broke three tackles to pick up a key first down. Ingram (41 yards and 2.9 YPC) never really got going despite getting the most carries.

 

Brandin Cooks (9 catches for 78 yards and 1 TD)- Kept quiet for most of the game as Cleveland's DBs made him a priority (Greg Newsome II looks really good so far, wanted him on the Bills). Cooks drew a defensive pass interference to set up first-and-goal for Houston when it looked like the game was getting out of reach and had a big fourth quarter as Houston found ways to scheme him open. 

 

Chris Conley (1 catch for 13 yards)- Did a good job using his physicality and body positioning on a slant route, but didn't catch another pass after. 

 

Danny Amendola (1 catch for 9 yards)- Not a factor and was injured during this game.

 

Pharoah Brown (0 catches for 0 yards) and Jordan Akins (1 catch for 17 yards)- Cleveland was able to take the tight ends away in this matchup.

 

Texans Run Defense- The Texans had a tough task in this match up and struggled to pass their first true test after the Jaguars gave up on the run early last week. Houston allowed a goal line touchdown on a fullback dive in the first quarter and then was slow to react and allowed Mayfield to scramble in untouched for a game-tying TD before HT. After Houston made it a three point game with only seven minutes remaining, the defense let Nick Chubb (95 yards, 8.6 YPC and 1 TD) score an easy 26 yard TD run off the right side. Kareem Hunt (51 yards and 3.9 YPC) kept the chains moving.

 

Texans Pass Defense- Houston made some key plays and took the ball away early in the game, but outside of those toxic differential plays, the Texans were soft in coverage and didn't get enough pressure on Baker Mayfield (19/21!!!! for 213 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT with 10 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD). Jacob Martin did a great job beating Jack Conklin to the inside on a perfect swim move to sack Baker Mayfield on Cleveland's first drive and Kamu Grugier-Hill got the other Texans sack. Justin Reid also made an outstanding play forcing a Donovan Peoples-Jones fumble that Kirksey recovered to stop a promising Cleveland drive and then picked off Mayfield on their next drive as he threw deep middle. Zach Cunningham made a highlight-worthy tackle on Kareem Hunt in space to force a late punt. With Beckham Jr and Landry out injured, Cleveland's TEs were everywhere and did a good job of finding space against Houston's Cover 2 scheme. The Texans defense play deteriorated in the second half, spectacularly missing several tackles on a 33 yard Demetric Felton screen pass for a TD.

 

Miscellaneous- After an early third down sack that forced a Cleveland punt, Andre Roberts proceeded to muff the punt, giving the ball right back to the Browns in excellent field position. Nico Collins ripped off a big gain on a catch and run over the middle, but got injured later on and will miss the Bills game. Joey Slye missed a routine FG right at the end that ended Houston's hopes for a win. Houston averaged 5.2 yards per play and committed 9 penalties for 78 yards. 

 

Thursday September 23rd- Week 3 Home Loss vs. Carolina (the Panthers (current record: 3-0) have the 12th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 31st ranked special teams) by a score of 24-9:

 

Davis Mills (19/28 for 168 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 0 rushing yards)- Got his first career start after playing less than a half in Week 2. Mills isn't nearly as mobile as Tyrod and that makes their RPOs and overall offense less dangerous. When he's kept clean and everything stays on schedule, Mills made some nice throws, but he struggled whenever a block was missed or when he had to improvise. After struggling to move the ball for the entire first half, Mills put together an impressive two minute drive, finding Cooks on a nice deep pass and then Antony Miller in the back of the end zone for a TD just before halftime. Houston's offensive line had their worst performance of the season as Mills couldn't bail them out with his limited athleticism, allowing four sacks and letting Mills take some huge hits. The kid is tough to be fair, but this was ultimately a very poor game as the Texans offense only gained 193 yards and went 1/9 on third down. 

 

Texans Running Game- No highlight worthy plays to speak of. The three RBs literally combined for 15 carries and 37 rushing yards.

 

Brandin Cooks (9 catches for 112 yards)- This dude is their entire offense. Cooks caught four passes on four straight plays in the fourth quarter.

 

Anthony Miller (4 catches for 20 yards and 1 TD)- Played a role in this game after he wasn't involved in the first two. Beat his man on a quick slant for the Texans' first TD. However, Miller did drop a key pass on third down that killed a promising drive.

 

Chris Conley (0 catch for 0 yards)- Non-factor.

 

Danny Amendola- out injured. 

 

Jordan Akins (4 catches for 32 yards)- Made a couple nice grabs on third down and he seems to have replaced Pharoah Brown. 

 

Texans Run Defense- Sam Darnold scampered in for Carolina's first TD off an RPO when the DE lost contain and bit on the run fake, broke off a 30+ yard run later on that got called back on a penalty, and scored on a late QB sneak. Christian McCaffery (31 yards and 4.4 YPC) is a stud as we all know, but it didn't look like Houston could even get close to him before he left injured in the second quarter. Houston's interior defensive line did win the LoS and stuff Chuba Hubbard (52 yards and 4.7 YPC) on a huge fourth-and-one play in the red zone. Hubbard also started chewing Houston up after the defense tired late in the game. 

 

Texans Pass Defense- I honestly don't know what Lovie Smith was being paid for this week, Houston played so vanilla and gave Carolina's weapons so much space to operate. DJ Moore (8 catches for 126 yards) and the other Panthers receivers were living rent free in the middle of the Texans' soft zone coverage and Sam Darnold (23/34 for 304 yards, 0 passing TD, and 0 INT with 11 rushing yards and 2 TDs) just went up and down the field throwing to wide open targets. The Houston pass rush played their best game of the young season (3 sacks) as Jonathan Greenard flew around the edge and tomahawked Darnold's arm to force a fumble and Ross Blacklock did the same in the second half from the interior, but Carolina recovered both.

 

Miscellaneous- Andre Roberts fumbled a punt for a second straight week. Slye missed his second XP of the season, but then rebounded to hit a 53 yard FG later. Houston averaged 3.9 yards per play and committed 7 penalties for 51 yards. 

 

Sunday October 3rd Preview- Week 4 Houston (current record: 1-2, the Texans have the 21st ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 28th ranked special teams) vs Buffalo (current record: 2-1, the Bills have the 16th ranked offense, 2nd ranked defense, and 19th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- Houston's defense actually has an above average DVOA ranking through three games, but this will be the first game in the 2021 season where Josh Allen and the passing offense will get to work against a below average secondary especially at outside corner. I think this is a game that Stefon Diggs can take over. I don't see any CBs on this Texans roster that can hang with him. The front seven has a couple solid players in Mercilus and Cunningham, but no elite difference-makers on paper. Houston also leads the league in missed tackles so we need to get our playmakers in space and maybe even give Matt Breida and Isaiah McKenzie some extra touches this week to force the issue. Eric Murray and Justin Reid form an above average safety tandem, but Reid missed Houston's last game. Lastly, Carolina scored a TD on a TE jet sweep to Tommy Tremble; I'd love to see us call that for Knox one of these days who's even more athletic. This could be a big Knox game either way as Houston has really struggled to cover TEs in 2021.

 

Bills On Defense- Another week, another opponent who runs their offense through their star #1 WR. Brandin Cooks is playing at an elite level in 2021 so far. He's in the top five of the NFL in receiving yards through three games and it's not hard to see why as nearly FORTY percent of Houston's passing attempts have headed in his direction. Despite their below average offense, Houston has been surprisingly effective converting third downs and Cooks is the guy that keeps the chains moving. The biggest key to stopping this offense is to take Cooks away and make their secondary players step up if they can. Beyond that, Davis Mills held onto the ball for a long time last week and isn't mobile so I'm predicting that our defensive line gets back to the form they showed against Miami. Poyer looks like he could miss this game potentially, but I trust our defense against this rookie QB and a popgun offense with the exception of Cooks. 

 

On Special Teams- Joey Slye has such an inconsistent track record and has already missed several attempts in 2021. Houston can't get Fairbairn back fast enough. Cameron Johnston is a fairly average punter, but allows a high percentage of returns on his punts as per Joe Marino of Locked On Bills. Andre Roberts was the one that got away this past offseason, but he's had a rough start as the Texans' returner with a couple of fumbles.

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

 

 

[NewEra]

Haven’t read it yet, but this is becoming one of my “must read” threads before each game.  I’ll dive in when I can relax. Just wanted to say thank you for you work.  It’s appreciated

[Rocky Landing]

I'm really struggling with this game on my weekly Pickem Pool. I'm currently ranked third out of 46 in that thing, and I'm only one pick behind #1, and #2. Pressure's on. The current spread is 16.5, and I suspect that is right where it's going to be. I know the Bills could completely stomp them, like they did to Miami. But, I can't get past the notion that they're going to want to keep everyone healthy, play a lot of backups in the second half, and probably want to keep a 2-3 score buffer, and cruise beyond that. But, Houston is not going to stop fighting until the end. I don't think they're going to roll over, and get all mopey like the Dolphins. I could see the Texans covering the spread.

Anybody got opinions?

[WotAGuy]

Jeff Driskel is the Texans backup QB. He played behind Thad Lewis and AJ McCarron.   No word on if he has faced the Bills in preseason. If so, hopefully the Bills weren’t wearing blue over white like they will be this week. That could spell trouble. 

Edited September 29, 2021 by WotAGuy

[Big Turk]

I mean, I think the Bills should cover the spread and cover it easily.  Vastly inferior opponent.

[CommonCents]

58 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I'm really struggling with this game on my weekly Pickem Pool. I'm currently ranked third out of 46 in that thing, and I'm only one pick behind #1, and #2. Pressure's on. The current spread is 16.5, and I suspect that is right where it's going to be. I know the Bills could completely stomp them, like they did to Miami. But, I can't get past the notion that they're going to want to keep everyone healthy, play a lot of backups in the second half, and probably want to keep a 2-3 score buffer, and cruise beyond that. But, Houston is not going to stop fighting until the end. I don't think they're going to roll over, and get all mopey like the Dolphins. I could see the Texans covering the spread.

Anybody got opinions?

Bills by a Billion. The Texans have no weapons.

[qwksilver]

I think on paper it should be an easy game. This could easily be a trap game as KC is up next. Teams have been known to look ahead. Plus Texans had extra time to prepare. I like the Bills but will take the points in my pick'em league.

[Orlando Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

I'm really struggling with this game on my weekly Pickem Pool. I'm currently ranked third out of 46 in that thing, and I'm only one pick behind #1, and #2. Pressure's on. The current spread is 16.5, and I suspect that is right where it's going to be. I know the Bills could completely stomp them, like they did to Miami. But, I can't get past the notion that they're going to want to keep everyone healthy, play a lot of backups in the second half, and probably want to keep a 2-3 score buffer, and cruise beyond that. But, Houston is not going to stop fighting until the end. I don't think they're going to roll over, and get all mopey like the Dolphins. I could see the Texans covering the spread.

Anybody got opinions?

I always have opinions and I think our rotation players are still better than their starters. If we sit Josh I think Mitch is still good enough to put up points.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:

Jeff Driskel is the Texans backup QB. He played behind Thad Lewis and AJ McCarron.   No word on if he has faced the Bills in preseason. If so, hopefully the Bills weren’t wearing blue over white like they will be this week. That could spell trouble. 

I love when random people just drop references to me.

[Malazan]

So given Taylor's luck since being traded..and that he ended the drought.. did he absorb the curse into himself and carry it off from Buffalo? 

 

Good guy Tyrod!

[WotAGuy]

1 minute ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I love when random people just drop references to me.

“Random people”???  Consider yourself uninvited for Thanksgiving 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Just now, WotAGuy said:

“Random people”???  Consider yourself uninvited for Thanksgiving 

Sorry. Yours is not a name I see and immediately think "Here we go," unlike some others

[wppete]

Trubisky is the second best QB hands down in this game. 😂 

[WotAGuy]

34 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Sorry. Yours is not a name I see and immediately think "Here we go," unlike some others

I am much beloved. 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Sorry. Yours is not a name I see and immediately think "Here we go," unlike some others

Oh, so now your talkin about me now…, I’ll just have thanksgiving by myself..,

[Rocky Landing]

4 hours ago, qwksilver said:

I think on paper it should be an easy game. This could easily be a trap game as KC is up next. Teams have been known to look ahead. Plus Texans had extra time to prepare. I like the Bills but will take the points in my pick'em league.

I was leaning this way, and then I got to thinking:

1) Josh Allen started the season with two mediocre performances. I think he would very much like to have two dominant performances in a row. And even if they don't send out Diggs, or Sanders, or Beasley, Allen can still put up big numbers with Davis, McK, and Kumerow.

2) The D-line, while playing really well last week, didn't get a single sack on Heinecky. They're going to be hungry to lay Mills to the turf. And those pressures will come much easier against the Texans.

3) Fully expecting a lot of second string in the second half. But those guys are going to be hungry to make some splash plays. Think Bills week 17 last season vs. Miami. Bills were accused of "running up the score." But, in the second half, it was second/third string who didn't want to stop playing.  The Bills might score a lot of points on Sunday, even if Mitch ends up taking over in the third. (But, I suspect he will take over in the fourth) Mitch Trubisky wants to show himself off, as well.

 

There, I just talked myself into taking the Bills at -16.5.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I'm really struggling with this game on my weekly Pickem Pool. I'm currently ranked third out of 46 in that thing, and I'm only one pick behind #1, and #2. Pressure's on. The current spread is 16.5, and I suspect that is right where it's going to be. I know the Bills could completely stomp them, like they did to Miami. But, I can't get past the notion that they're going to want to keep everyone healthy, play a lot of backups in the second half, and probably want to keep a 2-3 score buffer, and cruise beyond that. But, Houston is not going to stop fighting until the end. I don't think they're going to roll over, and get all mopey like the Dolphins. I could see the Texans covering the spread.

Anybody got opinions?

I agree. We're not exhausting starters the whole game. Keep guys healthy for KC. Obviously don't take them lightly but get your comfortable lead and run the ball in the 2nd half.  Get out with the W and prepare for one of the bigger games this year.

[Virgil]

That’s a lot of work when all you had to do was take a photo of a dumpster 

[GunnerBill]

Justin Reid looks like he will be available to play. That kinda sucks because he is their best player.... excluding the 3rd string Quarterback who shall not be named. 

 

The Bills will still win comfortably though.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

That’s a lot of work when all you had to do was take a photo of a dumpster 

Haha true story, it was a much more painful task this week than usual. Once Tyrod got hurt, their offense really became unbelievably boring. If we can take away Cooks and take advantage of Mills' limited mobility and tendency to hold onto the ball, I don't see a reason why we shouldn't cover.