Allen probably won't ever be the best deep ball thrower in the league

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I was saying yesterday that I am no longer worried about 3rd and 15 (or more)

 

why? Because “inaccurate” Josh can do it way more than not. 
 

his conversion rate is far better than many if not all on 3rd and 15+
 

and not Hail Mary plays or one’s gotten by flags 

 

3rd and 15s and 3rd and 20s aren't plays we have to worry about because that's right in Allen's wheelhouse as a passer.  Anything 10-35 or 40 yards beyond the LOS is money for him simply because that's his intermediate range.  A WR running a sideline route 30 yards down field is no biggie because Allen can put the ball on a frozen rope and get it to him without a problem--just look at that Manny Sanders TD pass in the OP, which travelled about 40 yards in the air... and that was without Allen even setting his feet.

 

Those aren't the throws I'm talking about.

 

I hope you actually understand that.

 

I also hope you actually understand that I am not saying that Allen is always going to be bad at the deep ball throwing... just more inconsistent than the best in the league.  And that's simply because of the way he throws it. 

 

As another poster mentioned, if we could let those routes develop more often so his deep balls travel 60+ yards down the field, things might work out more consistently.

[WideNine]

We are indeed spoiled when we have had years of QBs where a 30 yard pass IS the deep ball and now have one that we want to hit the 60 yarders more consistently.

 

Sheesh

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

But Allen doesn't throw a rainbow deep ball, which is kinda what I'm saying his issue on his deep passes is.

 

I don't know if he'll ever adjust to doing that.

 

Someone posted earlier that he has done it.  Even the overthrow to Sanders vs Pitt was at least at a 45 degree angle.  It still had a lot of heat on it for sure but he can do it.

 

He doesn't throw a rainbow like Wilson for sure on his deep shots but he's not always throwing it on a rope either.

 

Most of those rainbow throws you see from those guys you can already tell they are going to throw it almost as soon as they get the ball and they can just chuck it straight up in the air and let their receivers just outrun their coverage.  I don't think our receivers can really do that unless we get a lucky mismatch and have a LB on a WR.  Even then, they are probably dropping 7 into coverage.

 

Check this out.  You can see that either Wilson is on the money and his receiver fights for the catch or he's wide open and adjusting for the throw.

 

I think (and feel like I've seen) Allen make a bunch of those throws as well but he does have a tendency to put too much heat on them.  I guess that's probably his biggest problem.  His change-up is everyone else's fastball.

[rayray808]

when he throws ropes, I make ropes 

[WhoTom]

In three years, Josh has decimated so many prognostications about his performance that I'm not willing to rule out his ability to learn pretty much anything a QB needs to do.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

In conclusion though, it doesn't matter if he does or doesnt become one of the best deep ball throwers in the league.  That is in no way the barometer for being an elite QB in the NFL nor an indicator of future Super Bowl success.  But I am also not even going to consider saying Josh can or cant be anything at this stage of his career and I am utterly shocked anyone would dare make any final conclusions about any part of his game today while he is still ascending as a player.  

 

Completely agree with your first 2 sentences.  As for your last sentence, your umbrage over a post that was not itself really even as much a criticism as an observation is a little over the top.

 

Allen hits enough of those bombs where I'm really not worried... and I also think he will get better.  But unless he changes the way he throws his deep ball, I just don't think he'll be top 2 or 3 in the league at those types of throws.  Now... I think statistically he could easily be the best "deep" passer in the NFL all year when measured according to yards.  PFF measures a "deep pass" as any pass over 20 yards... and I think Allen will always be money in that 25-35 or 40 yard range down the field because that's his intermediate range.  Like I legitimately think he's already one of the 2 or 3 best "intermediate" passers in the NFL... it's just that so many of his intermediate passes are deep passes for other QBs.

 

I just think he'll need to change a lot mechanically to become the most consistent deep ball (bomb) thrower he can possibly be.  With him, it's possible... but we'll see.  Regardless, it's not even remotely a point of concern for me as he's already good enough at it.

[LABILLBACKER]

15 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Those rollout throws that he puts into tiny windows with perfect ball placement are almost unbelievable. The ball looks like it is a frozen rope that just hovers in the air.

Nobody debates his ridiculous skillset on throws 15-30 yards. But as others including myself have mentioned 100x he struggles to put more trajectory on the deeper throws. The one to Sanders was flat but I think the wind slowed it down allowing him to make a fingertip catch. At this point he's gotta be aware of it but his nature says gun it.

[WideNine]

12 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Someone posted earlier that he has done it.  Even the overthrow to Sanders vs Pitt was at least at a 45 degree angle.  It still had a lot of heat on it for sure but he can do it.

 

He doesn't throw a rainbow like Wilson for sure on his deep shots but he's not always throwing it on a rope either.

 

Most of those rainbow throws you see from those guys you can already tell they are going to throw it almost as soon as they get the ball and they can just chuck it straight up in the air and let their receivers just outrun their coverage.  I don't think our receivers can really do that unless we get a lucky mismatch and have a LB on a WR.  Even then, they are probably dropping 7 into coverage.

 

Check this out.  You can see that either Wilson is on the money and his receiver fights for the catch or he's wide open and adjusting for the throw.

 

I think (and feel like I've seen) Allen make a bunch of those throws as well but he does have a tendency to put too much heat on them.  I guess that's probably his biggest problem.  His change-up is everyone else's fastball.

 

Honestly, many of those clips were in the Kingdome with a luxuriously comfy pocket.

 

If Allen threw those rainbows in our Highmark we would be screaming about the balls dying midair and getting picked off. Kelly often mentioned that there is a specific way he had to throw the ball in the Ralph to cut through and under the wind on longer throws.

 

Going to be hard comparing apples to oranges, but I just don't think he would be very successful throwing those rainbows in our windy stadium most days. That being said Russel is an awesome QB who has put up really good numbers over the years in regards to completion rate and average yards per attempt and not a bad bar for Allen to aim towards. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completely agree with your first 2 sentences.  As for your last sentence, your umbrage over a post that was not itself really even as much a criticism as an observation is a little over the top.

 

Allen hits enough of those bombs where I'm really not worried... and I also think he will get better.  But unless he changes the way he throws his deep ball, I just don't think he'll be top 2 or 3 in the league at those types of throws.  Now... I think statistically he could easily be the best "deep" passer in the NFL all year when measured according to yards.  PFF measures a "deep pass" as any pass over 20 yards... and I think Allen will always be money in that 25-35 or 40 yard range down the field because that's his intermediate range.  Like I legitimately think he's already one of the 2 or 3 best "intermediate" passers in the NFL... it's just that so many of his intermediate passes are deep passes for other QBs.

 

I just think he'll need to change a lot mechanically to become the most consistent deep ball (bomb) thrower he can possibly be.  With him, it's possible... but we'll see.  Regardless, it's not even remotely a point of concern for me as he's already good enough at it.

 

 

All fair enough, just for me personally I cant understand why with a player like Allen who has shown drastic improvements in all facets each year we would conclude anything yet.  Thats just my 2 cents because I think if anyone has proven not to prematurely conclude anything about them, its Josh really.  Not being pompous about it, just saying he really is still ascending and his ceiling is as high as it gets really.  

 

But I agree with most everything else you said

[Boatdrinks]

Did Russell Wilson ever play in the Kingdome? 

[The Dean]

16 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

 

 

This. I'm betting he makes this his project one offseason. He seems to pick a perceived flaw and attack it between seasons.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 9/28/2021 at 12:35 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

Did you happen to catch the game last night? 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Did you happen to catch the game last night? 

 

Sure did!

 

He was great last night! Loved every minute of it!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 9/28/2021 at 5:02 PM, WideNine said:

 

Honestly, many of those clips were in the Kingdome with a luxuriously comfy pocket.

 

If Allen threw those rainbows in our Highmark we would be screaming about the balls dying midair and getting picked off. Kelly often mentioned that there is a specific way he had to throw the ball in the Ralph to cut through and under the wind on longer throws.

 

Going to be hard comparing apples to oranges, but I just don't think he would be very successful throwing those rainbows in our windy stadium most days. That being said Russel is an awesome QB who has put up really good numbers over the years in regards to completion rate and average yards per attempt and not a bad bar for Allen to aim towards. 

 

 

 

 

 

Came here to say exactly this lol I think he's throwing deep ball ropes by design to minimize the wind impact.