Allen probably won't ever be the best deep ball thrower in the league

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

Honestly, maybe take deep shots from our own 30....give josh more room to air it out.  Let the receiver get way downfield.  Inside the 50, Josh can frozen rope them no problem.  

[unbillievable]

He throws the deep ball like Jeff George. Someone should show him how to do it like Jeff Blake.

Also, anything under 40 feels like an intermediate throw, when it's a bomb to most QB's.

[BigDingus]

8 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think he tries to laser them in to keep them out of the wind...that deep ball he floated to diggs early in the game drifted way right in the wind.  Dude was hitting frequent bombs his rookie season to Robert foster of all people 🤣 

 

They weren't really frequent, his rookie year & his sophomore season he was rated worst or second worst in passes beyond 30 yards in the air (I believe it was 30). One of the weird problems he had was UNDER throwing them, though he had some over throws too. 

 

I agree with the OP about him never being a very accurate deep passer, at least not from the pocket. He seems to have better control while running for whatever reason, but hitting an open man in stride from the pocket causes him issue.

 

I think the real reason is a combination of his height & arm strength. I have zero clue the size of other QB's, but when you see Josh throw some of those deep passes, you can just tell he doesn't have to put much effort into it. I feel like a lot of other QB's have a natural sweet spot, and when throwing deep, they know they have to use extra force & effort to get it on target. Josh on the other hand, he's already towering over the line, then has to choose between putting a little power behind it, or actually restraining himself. If he puts power behind it, will it just zip way past someone before they even get there? If he tries to hold back, does it float too much & require the receiver to stop his run to come back for it?

 

I get that technically all QB's have to think about this, but when your arm can just fire one off 50+ yards at the flick of a wrist, you have a different set of issues. You can almost see when Allen is throwing deep that it's almost too easy. The balls he under throws seem more of him knowing "if I put any juice behind this, I might launch it into the scoreboard," and trying to adjust his own power down.

 

It's hard to put into words, but maybe others have noticed it too. It just seems like he has the opposite problem that someone like Brady has. Brady can throw fairly deep if he HAS to (not like he used to) but after exerting a lot more effort. Josh could throw 40 yards and the ball won't even be hitting its arc. It's a weird problem to have, but it just feels like a big dude with a huge arm struggling to reel that in a bit.

[The Jokeman]

30 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

He throws the deep ball like Jeff George. Someone should show him how to do it like Jeff Blake.

Also, anything under 40 feels like an intermediate throw, when it's a bomb to most QB's.

Jeff Blake like Russell Wilson was on the shorter side which is why they had to "sky" it. I fear if Josh started doing that he'd be more susceptible to Interceptions as it take longer to get to his intended target or give the DB a better chance to catch that intended receiver.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

 

 

He's shown flashes of being able to make these throws............the throw to Brown in the finale against Miami was another example.       Then others he overthrows by 8-10 yards.........which is astonishingly inaccurate for a top NFL QB.    I know he's worked on the mechanics of the throw and a good foundation is important but he needs to get a better feel for it within his arm.    Control can be improved with the rest of the body but command of your pitches comes from being to make subtle adjustments from the shoulder down. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

25 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

They weren't really frequent, his rookie year & his sophomore season he was rated worst or second worst in passes beyond 30 yards in the air (I believe it was 30). One of the weird problems he had was UNDER throwing them, though he had some over throws too. 

 

I agree with the OP about him never being a very accurate deep passer, at least not from the pocket. He seems to have better control while running for whatever reason, but hitting an open man in stride from the pocket causes him issue.

 

I think the real reason is a combination of his height & arm strength. I have zero clue the size of other QB's, but when you see Josh throw some of those deep passes, you can just tell he doesn't have to put much effort into it. I feel like a lot of other QB's have a natural sweet spot, and when throwing deep, they know they have to use extra force & effort to get it on target. Josh on the other hand, he's already towering over the line, then has to choose between putting a little power behind it, or actually restraining himself. If he puts power behind it, will it just zip way past someone before they even get there? If he tries to hold back, does it float too much & require the receiver to stop his run to come back for it?

 

I get that technically all QB's have to think about this, but when your arm can just fire one off 50+ yards at the flick of a wrist, you have a different set of issues. You can almost see when Allen is throwing deep that it's almost too easy. The balls he under throws seem more of him knowing "if I put any juice behind this, I might launch it into the scoreboard," and trying to adjust his own power down.

 

It's hard to put into words, but maybe others have noticed it too. It just seems like he has the opposite problem that someone like Brady has. Brady can throw fairly deep if he HAS to (not like he used to) but after exerting a lot more effort. Josh could throw 40 yards and the ball won't even be hitting its arc. It's a weird problem to have, but it just feels like a big dude with a huge arm struggling to reel that in a bit.

Yea could be me just remembering the big plays...our receivers were absolute poop that year so its tough to tell where the blame goes lol i think we had more drops and less wr separation than anyone else in the league.  I remember year 2 he noticeably struggled on the deep ball...I thought he was good last year though. 

[unbillievable]

27 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

They weren't really frequent, his rookie year & his sophomore season he was rated worst or second worst in passes beyond 30 yards in the air (I believe it was 30). One of the weird problems he had was UNDER throwing them, though he had some over throws too. 

 

I agree with the OP about him never being a very accurate deep passer, at least not from the pocket. He seems to have better control while running for whatever reason, but hitting an open man in stride from the pocket causes him issue.

 

I think the real reason is a combination of his height & arm strength. I have zero clue the size of other QB's, but when you see Josh throw some of those deep passes, you can just tell he doesn't have to put much effort into it. I feel like a lot of other QB's have a natural sweet spot, and when throwing deep, they know they have to use extra force & effort to get it on target. Josh on the other hand, he's already towering over the line, then has to choose between putting a little power behind it, or actually restraining himself. If he puts power behind it, will it just zip way past someone before they even get there? If he tries to hold back, does it float too much & require the receiver to stop his run to come back for it?

 

I get that technically all QB's have to think about this, but when your arm can just fire one off 50+ yards at the flick of a wrist, you have a different set of issues. You can almost see when Allen is throwing deep that it's almost too easy. The balls he under throws seem more of him knowing "if I put any juice behind this, I might launch it into the scoreboard," and trying to adjust his own power down.

 

It's hard to put into words, but maybe others have noticed it too. It just seems like he has the opposite problem that someone like Brady has. Brady can throw fairly deep if he HAS to (not like he used to) but after exerting a lot more effort. Josh could throw 40 yards and the ball won't even be hitting its arc. It's a weird problem to have, but it just feels like a big dude with a huge arm struggling to reel that in a bit.

 

It's probably like golf where it's much easier to take a full swing than trying to do 3/4th or 1/2 swings. 

 

This can be solved if the play is timed to hit the same distance, but that can be exploited by the defense too.

[colin]

there was one pass to diggs late in the game yesterday, it faked out the camera, i thought for a second the ball was tipped, but the camera man just wasn't fast enough.  on the replay, in slow mo, a guest at my house commented that she could barely see the ball.  only person i've seen put the ball out that accurately and fast with so little fanfare in his throw was jeff george.

 

as far as his shortcomings, to me it is all in allen's head and feet.  he gets the sugar high and that leads to holding the ball or bad decisions, or he gets his feet into the wrong place and just throws from there.  the offset of that is his feet allow him to throw darts while rolling out, run for big gainers, and avoid sacks that he has no business doing.  as far as his head, his sugar highness is a problem, but he's a freakin dog and will bite down and grind on anyone at anytime, and the team sees that and frankly often plays above themselves.  i think the approach of small things to focus on week to week is what you want, you look to refine a guy like him without knocking off too much of the pixie dust.

 

i still think he's gonna go down the GOAT.

[Not at the table Karlos]

9 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think he tries to laser them in to keep them out of the wind...that deep ball he floated to diggs early in the game drifted way right in the wind.  Dude was hitting frequent bombs his rookie season to Robert foster of all people 🤣 

The "bombs" he was hitting His rookie year were mostly deep posts, outs or crossers. Routes that the ball can be thrown on a laser. It's the vertical routes where the receiver is running in a straight line away from the QB and the ball needs to be dropped in front of him that's the issue. With that route you want the receiver to be able to track the ball and run under it. The way Josh throws it you have to make extremely tough catches like Sanders has to complete it. The times he does put air under the ball the receiver usually needs to slow down like John brown vs dolphins week 2 last year. He did show a lot of progress last year but seems to have regressed some with his touch this year.

 

I'm pretty sure it's something that can be fixed he just needs to work on it a while longer. 

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

 

I don't understand why Mahomes keeps getting put on this list of best deep ball throwers.  Its like no one watches him play or something.  His deep ball is not as good as his overall passing production indicates.  If you watch him play, his receivers are constantly making excellent adjustments to get the balls that are off target, especially Hill.  And a lot of other times he has guys running wide open too where its like playing 7 on 7 drills.  Mahomes is an excellent QB no doubt, not knocking him, just saying his deep ball accuracy is not the top of the list.  

 

The top 3 best deep ball throwers in the league in no particular order are Rodgers, Wilson and Brady.  Brady does not have the arm strength as those other guys, but his deep ball accuracy down field is still excellent.  

 

I am not saying Mahomes is a bad deep ball thrower either, I just think it gets completely over exaggerated with him because he has so much production, but if you watch him play, you will see someone like Hill frequently adjust to an off target pass down field and make the catch, even in crowds, double coverage, etc.  Hill IMO (no disrespect to Diggs) is the best deep ball WR in the NFL, with Diggs and Hopkins IMO being the other 2 in the top 3.  Hlll has an uncanny ability despite his small stature to find a way to the ball no matter the coverage and somehow make the catch look easy at times.  

 

As far as Allen goes, there is NO WAY I am going to say he can't ever be in this category right now.  We are talking about a QB who has taken massive steps forward each year in the league, is still growing as we speak further, and has the strongest arm in the NFL and is paired with one of the top 3 best deep ball threats in the league in Diggs with some other good deep weapons too in Sanders and Davis.  To stand here today and say he can never be one of the best at it is mind blowing to me given the tools he has and the growth he has already shown in all facets of the game.  

 

In conclusion though, it doesn't matter if he does or doesnt become one of the best deep ball throwers in the league.  That is in no way the barometer for being an elite QB in the NFL nor an indicator of future Super Bowl success.  But I am also not even going to consider saying Josh can or cant be anything at this stage of his career and I am utterly shocked anyone would dare make any final conclusions about any part of his game today while he is still ascending as a player.  

Edited September 28, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Jauronimo]

14 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

The "bombs" he was hitting His rookie year were mostly deep posts, outs or crossers. Routes that the ball can be thrown on a laser. It's the vertical routes where the receiver is running in a straight line away from the QB and the ball needs to be dropped in front of him that's the issue. With that route you want the receiver to be able to track the ball and run under it. The way Josh throws it you have to make extremely tough catches like Sanders has to complete it. The times he does put air under the ball the receiver usually needs to slow down like John brown vs dolphins week 2 last year. He did show a lot of progress last year but seems to have regressed some with his touch this year.

 

I'm pretty sure it's something that can be fixed he just needs to work on it a while longer. 

100% agree.  The trajectory on his passes means if hes off by a few degrees on release he will overthrow by 5 to 10 yards.  He doesn't have that Tyrod moonball that he can drop into a bucket over the WRs shoulder.  

[dave mcbride]

57 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

The "bombs" he was hitting His rookie year were mostly deep posts, outs or crossers. Routes that the ball can be thrown on a laser. It's the vertical routes where the receiver is running in a straight line away from the QB and the ball needs to be dropped in front of him that's the issue. With that route you want the receiver to be able to track the ball and run under it. The way Josh throws it you have to make extremely tough catches like Sanders has to complete it. The times he does put air under the ball the receiver usually needs to slow down like John brown vs dolphins week 2 last year. He did show a lot of progress last year but seems to have regressed some with his touch this year.

 

I'm pretty sure it's something that can be fixed he just needs to work on it a while longer. 

Good post. He did hit on a high-trajectory bomb to Diggs last week - a play in which Diggs had time to adjust and make the play.

[corta765]

The player most are today will be far different 5 years from now and 10 years from now. Truthfully age may help Allen pass better because half of his issue is too much zip, but the bigger thing is many QB's as they get older get smarter and more relaxed as they play the position. I honestly think Allen 5 years from now probably will be a better true QB because he won't press as much as he does now.

[34-78-83]

Once again, it has to be mentioned...

There was no rainbow touch pass that was going to work in the WFT game and the 18 to 20 mph gusts.

Every pass literally had to be gunned in there to get to the intended WR and Josh did that, thankfully.

While I certainly agree there are at least 10 better long ball throwers than Josh (which I get is your main point) I also think its a lot easier to look good in that area when you play in a dome or a warm weather region.

[Captain Hindsight]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I remember in maybe 2019, it was 3rd and 15 from their own maybe 5? He stood in the the end zone a d delivered a 20 yard out to zay or smoke. I felt then at that moment  the days of 3rd and 5 or more being a guaranteed punt were over. 

Right? what a feeling 

[WideNine]

Some of the best deep ball throwers I have seen do not play in the winds of a stadium like we have. They throw a ball with good arc that allows receivers to slightly adjust, but those would float in our newly minted Highmark Stadium - probably plays into why so many QBs dink and dunk on us when playing here and perhaps why they throw so many INTs when pressing from behind...

 

A better gauge would be to watch Allen's throws in a dome. Allen has come a long way, but his early football foundation was likely using that strong arm to get the ball to a spot where his receiver was sitting stationary. The confidence of understanding what defenses are doing to know where he wants to go with the ball plays into the anticipation, touch, and timing needed to hit his receivers in stride.

 

That is a work in progress, but trending in the right direction by what he is delivering on the field. Allen has that growth mindset of working to continuously improve his game and not settling for what worked before. He is probably a bigger critic of his game than we could ever be.

 

I believe that Daboll has used the sideline out and comeback routes to help Allen keep the ball away from coverage - particularly with all the man coverage he saw his first two seasons. Those routes also factored heavily into our scramble drills, but I do like that he and Allen worked more on his deeper seam routes in the offseason, with Kumerow waiting in the wings and Knox coming on, those could be very productive plays for us when combined with a bit of play action to help split that two-high look or beat a single high safety if he loses a step.

 

It is one that Brady and Gronk made a living off of leveraging the size/height mismatches.

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

It's not too late for him to be able to fine tune this aspect of his game, but as others have mentioned it doesn't preclude him from being a top 5 franchise QB in this league as long as he can deliver when it matters most when games are on the line and you have to move the ball more methodically down the field and can't just air it out 50 yards down field in one shot to win a game.

[Buffalo Boy]

10 hours ago, Utah John said:

Anyway, 60 yards seems to be a good distance for Allen making deep throws.  

When all of Bills mafia is living a fantasy….. that is real… and we just chat about it like it’s meh😎💪🔥

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He's shown flashes of being able to make these throws............the throw to Brown in the finale against Miami was another example.       Then others he overthrows by 8-10 yards.........which is astonishingly inaccurate for a top NFL QB.    I know he's worked on the mechanics of the throw and a good foundation is important but he needs to get a better feel for it within his arm.    Control can be improved with the rest of the body but command of your pitches comes from being to make subtle adjustments from the shoulder down. 

 

A lot of it is timing.  If he's late to throw it can almost look like he underthrew it, and if you release a bit early the player can't get to the spot.  

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

 

Oh he absolutely can still hit the deep ball and I don't think he's a bad deep ball thrower... I just don't think he'll ever be as close to automatic as Russell Wilson is.

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Another point to this is Mahomes and Wilson have Hill and Metcalf would can absolutely burn their coverage and have time to adjust to a rainbow throw to them. 

 

I know we have fast wrs but those guys are FAST.

 

I will say Wilson does throw a very accurate deep ball.  I feel like Hill makes the play more than mahomes does on his deep catches. 

 

But Allen doesn't throw a rainbow deep ball, which is kinda what I'm saying his issue on his deep passes is.

 

I don't know if he'll ever adjust to doing that.

8 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Really?

 

Give us a championship and nothing else matters 

 

3 games and you throw in the towel?

 

 

 

 

Ummmmm... what????